Fresno State at Oregon State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Fresno State logo Fresno State Bulldogs at Oregon State BeaversOregon State logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Oregon State -1.0 (45.5) (-125)  Open: -2.0 | 48.5
Fresno State 36 - Oregon State: 27

 
Bulldogs (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Matt Entz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 19 (26 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
ORST 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Fresno State -2.5  (SP+ FRES -16)

Projected Score: FRES: 25 - ORST: 22 (47)
ORST Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
FRES Travel: 566 miles
Beavers (2 - 10) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Ryan Gunderson (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 29 (22 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
Fresno State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Fresno State at Kansas+14.051.5L 7 - 31UN
Sat 8/30 Fresno State vs Georgia Southern-2.554.5W 42 - 14OY
Sat 9/6 Fresno State at Oregon State+1.045.5W 36 - 27OY
Sat 9/13 Fresno State vs Southern-37.551.5W 56 - 7OY
Sat 9/20 Fresno State at Hawai'i-2.547.5W 23 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Fresno State vs Nevada-12.545.5W 20 - 17UN
Fri 10/10 Fresno State at Colorado State-5.547.5L 21 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Fresno State vs San Diego State+3.046.5L 0 - 23UN
Sat 11/1 Fresno State at Boise State+17.547.5W 30 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Fresno State vs Wyoming-3.040.5W 24 - 3UY
Sat 11/22 Fresno State vs Utah State-1.550.5L 17 - 28UN
Sat 11/29 Fresno State at San José State-3.546.0W 41 - 14OY
Sat 12/27 Fresno State vs Miami (OH)-5.041.0W 18 - 3UY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule
Oregon State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Oregon State vs California-3.051.5L 15 - 34UN
Sat 9/6 Oregon State vs Fresno State-1.045.5L 27 - 36ON
Sat 9/13 Oregon State at Texas Tech+24.561.5L 7 - 45UN
Sat 9/20 Oregon State at Oregon+33.558.5L 7 - 41UN
Fri 9/26 Oregon State vs Houston+11.548.5L 24 - 27OY
Sat 10/4 Oregon State at App State+1.553.5L 23 - 27UN
Sat 10/11 Oregon State vs Wake Forest+1.547.5L 14 - 39ON
Sat 10/18 Oregon State vs Lafayette-21.056.5W 45 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Oregon State vs Washington State+3.547.5W 10 - 7UY
Sat 11/8 Oregon State vs Sam Houston-21.052.5L 17 - 21UN
Sat 11/15 Oregon State at Tulsa+1.550.5L 14 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Oregon State at Washington State+14.042.5L 8 - 32UN

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 6, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oregon State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FRES#105 (.11)39% (110)25.838% (120)2.79 (101)15741% (78)1673.29 (111)#40 (.1)39% (32)18.843% (77)35% (14)3.26 (34)55.21.51.8
ORST#123 (.05)42% (67)17.644% (67)2.82 (90)12742% (70)2252.89 (128)#76 (.18)38% (27)29.441% (52)36% (19)3.41 (49)49.91.70.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FRES#110 (.11)39% (110)38% (121)2.73 (115)10141% (76)2423.68 (91)#17 (.08)40% (51)43% (74)38% (33)3.63 (47)551.31.5
ORST#87 (.16)44% (59)47% (25)3.34 (20)18939% (100)2013.87 (75)#117 (.27)48% (125)50% (126)45% (112)4.35 (117)45.71.31



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FRES Offense1325.826.338.6%3.291.5183241571674.753%45%38%41%15%.11
ORST Defense1229.425.338.3%3.410.8 - - - - - 49%49%41%36%17%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FRES Defense1318.824.838.8%3.261.8 - - - - - 50%49%43%35%18%.1
ORST Offense1217.621.742.3%2.891.7203531272253.846%52%44%42%16%.05

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Fresno State1329:2017.536%40%655.21.51.84.91.6333.6
Oregon State1231:5220.436%40%5.949.91.70.85.31.3028.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FRES Offense1353% (41)38% (120)33.3157.14.722 (49).02 (114)2.79 (101)73% (59)10% (86)1.01 (51)
ORST Defense1249% (57)41% (52) - - - - .07 (54)2.6 (17)68% (44)10% (57)0.94 (57)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FRES Defense1350% (62)43% (77) - - - - .09 (62)3 (93)74% (92)10% (66)0.82 (8)
ORST Offense1246% (98)44% (67)33.9127.33.815 (60).01 (120)2.82 (90)77% (31)9% (60)0.73 (135)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FRES Offense1345% (99)41% (78)17.227166.56.29.713 (75)13 (127).25 (64)1.5 (78)33% (97)30% (73).31 (70)5% (48)2 (86)
ORST Defense1249% (81)36% (19) - - - - - - 8 (55).31 (98)2 (136)33% (41)29% (69).44 (126)7% (17)2.5 (136)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FRES Defense1349% (75)35% (14) - - - - - - 19 (12).14 (24)1.6 (91)33% (43)27% (30).17 (24)8% (12)1.8 (14)
ORST Offense1252% (35)42% (70)21.735.9225.46.310.414 (61)13 (127).11 (123)1.3 (133)31% (71)28% (93).05 (132)7% (110)1.7 (134)

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -8.69  #102
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 0.27  #127
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 8.96  #73
2025 Talent Rating: 684.00  #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
Fresno State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Fresno State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.1  #67
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.5  #96
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.5  #43

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -8.69   Oregon State: -6.49

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: 1.1   Oregon State: -14.8




Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: -6.49  #83
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 1.36  #120
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 4.54  #42
2025 Talent Rating: 772.00  #61
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Oregon State's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Oregon State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.8  #121
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.6  #126
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.6  #93

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 748
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.3
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.8

Fresno State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Fresno State 25
Oregon State 22


Total Points: 47

Based on Last 4 Games
Fresno State 25
Oregon State 22

Total Points: 47

Based on Entire Season
Fresno State 27
Oregon State 21

Total Points: 48
Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.7
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.3

Oregon State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06Oregon State27Fresno State36Oregon State -1.0Fresno State45.5Over
202209/10Fresno State32Oregon State35Fresno State -1Oregon State59.0Over
200309/05Fresno State16Oregon State14
200209/21Oregon State59Fresno State19
200109/02Fresno State44Oregon State24
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Oregon State212 Overs
Fresno State310 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 20 - 20 - 20 - 0
Road Teams2 - 32 - 00 - 02 - 0

(#102) FRES at (#83) ORST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFRESORST
Power RatePwr #102 #83
SP+SP+ #67 #121
Perf GradeGrade #65 #113
OffenseOff #72 #103
DefenseDef #66 #93
Spec TeamsST #31 #136
TalentTal #80 #61
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #65
Fresno State Notes
(10/28) QB Warner benched, Conklin was bad vs SDSU
(10/28) Entz says Conklin QB1 at least for now
(10/9) Off started out hot but cooled lately. QB Warner JAG
(9/23) LB Tim Thomas no longer with team
(9/23) OL has improved, run game good. Pass Off poor
(9/23) Def #'s really poor despite 4-1 start. On watch
(9/9) QB Warner brutal start, 0 TD - 5 INT
(9/1) OG C McHarg out for season (Sr, Starter)
(8/1) Def OK LY, lost a ton. 10 portals, 4 DL help
(8/1) OL returns 3/5, meh LY but 5 portal adds help
(8/1) OC Davis = slow ground combo spread & RPO
(8/1) Pass D good LY & DBs good, A Hamilton big keep
Fresno State Injury Report
Oregon State Notes
(11/28) Hired Bama Co-OC JaMarcus Shepard as HC
(11/10) Interim HC Robb Akey fired? That's new
(11/10) OC Ryan Gunderson now interim HC
(10/19) QB Murphy benched vs FCS Laf. Were losing at half
(10/12) HC Bray fired after 0-7 start
(10/7) 2 heart breaking L's, Off is improving, WR Walker great
(8/31) Murphy meh, Run Off awful, Pass Def torched
(7/31) RB Hankerson a great back, have depth
(7/31) Bray 1st yr finished 1-6. Will DC this year
(7/31) Schedule front loaded but lots of rebuild opps
(7/31) OC Gunderson great QB coach, 1st time OC
(7/31) DL lacks exp, will struggle up front both lines
Oregon State Injury Report
Fresno State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
FRES OffORST Def
Perf GradePerf #72 #93
SuccessSuc #110 #27
ExplosiveExp #55 #133
PPAPPA #105 #76
PowerPwr #127 #42
SP+SP+ #96 #93
Pts POPPO #111 #49
HavocHav #65 #40
Fresno State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
FRES OffORST Def
Run GameRun #34 #90
Run SuccessRSuc #120 #52
Run ExplRExp #51 #57
PPAExp #114 #54
Run BlockR Blk #52 -
OL YdsOLY #101 #17
Stuff RateStuff #91 #21
TackleTak -  #126
Fresno State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
FRES OffORST Def
Pass GamePass #91 #90
Pass SuccessPSuc #78 #19
Pass ExplPExl #78 #136
PPAExp #64 #98
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #21 #64
F7 HavocF7 #86 #57
DB HavocDB #48 #17
Oregon State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatORST OffFRES Def
Perf GradePerf #103 #66
SuccessSuc #67 #32
ExplosiveExp #135 #20
PPAPPA #123 #40
PowerPwr #120 #73
SP+SP+ #126 #43
Pts POPPO #128 #34
HavocHav #90 #32
Oregon State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
ORST OffFRES Def
Run GameRun #118 #114
Run SuccessRSuc #67 #77
Run ExplRExp #135 #8
PPAExp #120 #62
Run BlockR Blk #70 -
OL YdsOLY #90 #93
Stuff RateStuff #24 #50
TackleTak -  #98
Oregon State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatORST OffFRES Def
Pass GamePass #106 #26
Pass SuccessPSuc #70 #14
Pass ExplPExl #133 #91
PPAExp #123 #24
Pass Block/RushP Blk #86 #62
F7 HavocF7 #60 #66
DB HavocDB #110 #12
Program Comparison
ORST 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Reser Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 68° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 2
Oregon State -1.0 (45.5)
Fresno State won at Oregon State this year (36-27)

Previous Matchups
Oregon State beat Fresno State in 2022 (35-32)

  
FRES's OC Josh Davis (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
E.J. Warner (Tr)19327869%202513117.3
Carson Conklin (Tr)479649%354123.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rayshon Luke (Tr)11069966.469
Bryson Donelson14258354.157
Brandon Ramirez6027134.519
Johnathan Arceneaux4026726.758
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josiah Freeman52642612.351
Richie Anderson32321310.025
Ezekiel Avit (Tr)2825509.141
Rayshon Luke (Tr)3622826.323

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Nick Benedetto (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jadon Pearson (Tr)966013
Simeon Harris (Tr)537105
Camryn Bracha523004
Finn Claypool (Tr)4111741
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Finn Claypool (Tr)4111741
Korey Foreman196422
Jahzon Jacks327430
Deijon Laffitte275303
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jakari Embry260007
Simeon Harris (Tr)537105
Alzillion Hamilton342015

ORST's OC Ryan Gunderson (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maalik Murphy (Tr)16027658%1802986.5
Gabarri Johnson6210062%501235.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Hankerson247108894.465
Cornell Hatcher Jr.5229225.642
Gabarri Johnson3411913.552
Salahadin Allah197103.716
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Trent Walker68823212.143
David Wells Jr.44466410.656
Tastean Reddicks30391013.037
Bryce Caufield2921917.630

View Oregon State's Full Roster

ORST's DC Trent Bray (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Skyler Thomas780024
Aiden Sullivan727151
Jaheim Patterson671014
Dexter Foster523041
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jojo Johnson187380
Jacob Schuster142202
Takari Hickle385250
Shamar Meikle286240
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey Glasper232005
Sailasa Vadrawale311015
Jalil Tucker251015