Fresno State at Oregon State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Fresno State Bulldogs at Oregon State Beavers

Saturday, September 6th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Reser Stadium - Corvallis, OR

Bulldogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Matt Entz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (21 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 5.4 (#65)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)

ORST 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Oregon State -6 (SP+ ORST -4)
Projected Score: FRES: 25 - ORST: 31 (53)
ORST Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
FRES Travel: 566 miles

Beavers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Trent Bray (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (30 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.2 - 4.8 (#48)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)

Matchup
Schedules
FRES Players
ORST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Fresno State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/23	Fresno State at Kansas	+14.0	51.5
Sat 8/30	Fresno State vs Georgia Southern	-2.0	55.5
Sat 9/6	Fresno State at Oregon State	+6
Sat 9/13	Fresno State vs Southern	-16.5
Sat 9/20	Fresno State at Hawai'i	-2
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Fresno State vs Nevada	-13
Sat 10/11	Fresno State at Colorado State	-0.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25	Fresno State vs San Diego State	-8
Sat 11/1	Fresno State at Boise State	+19
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Fresno State vs Wyoming	-9
Sat 11/22	Fresno State vs Utah State	-11.5
Sat 11/29	Fresno State at San José State	+4.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule

Oregon State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Oregon State vs California	-3.0	51.5
Sat 9/6	Oregon State vs Fresno State	-6
Sat 9/13	Oregon State at Texas Tech	+18
Sat 9/20	Oregon State at Oregon	+32.5
Sat 9/27	Oregon State vs Houston	+1.5
Sat 10/4	Oregon State at App State	-8
Sat 10/11	Oregon State vs Wake Forest	-6
Sat 10/18	Oregon State vs Lafayette	-20
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Oregon State vs Washington State	-9.5
Sat 11/8	Oregon State vs Sam Houston	-17
Sat 11/15	Oregon State at Tulsa	-12
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29	Oregon State at Washington State	-4.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oregon State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES	#110 (.11)	39% (110)	26.1	38% (121)	2.73 (115)	101	41% (76)	242	3.68 (91)	#17 (.08)	40% (51)	24.8	43% (74)	38% (33)	3.63 (47)	55	1.3	1.5
ORST	#87 (.16)	44% (59)	24.3	47% (25)	3.34 (20)	189	39% (100)	201	3.87 (75)	#117 (.27)	48% (125)	29.9	50% (126)	45% (112)	4.35 (117)	45.7	1.3	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ORST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Offense	13	26.1	21.2	39.2%	3.68	1.3	19	343	101	242	3.4	42%	57%	38%	41%	14%	.11
ORST Defense	12	29.9	30.1	48%	4.35	1	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	50%	45%	13%	.27

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Defense	13	24.8	31.2	40.3%	3.63	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	43%	38%	14%	.08
ORST Offense	12	24.3	29.7	43.6%	3.87	1.3	22	391	189	201	4.7	55%	45%	47%	39%	15%	.16

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Fresno State	13	27:29	18.9	39%	42%	6.2	55	1.3	1.5	4.4	1.5	2	30.7
Oregon State	12	33:09	22.3	44%	52%	5.1	45.7	1.3	1	3.8	0.6	1	24.9

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Offense	13	42% (115)	38% (121)	29.2	100.7	3.4	21 (59)	.04 (111)	2.73 (115)	69% (96)	8% (34)	0.95 (76)
ORST Defense	12	56% (125)	50% (126)	-	-	-	-	.23 (120)	3.39 (123)	81% (114)	8% (122)	0.96 (55)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Defense	13	49% (49)	43% (74)	-	-	-	-	.08 (48)	2.94 (56)	71% (56)	8% (121)	0.81 (7)
ORST Offense	12	55% (33)	47% (25)	40.3	189.2	4.7	29 (18)	.22 (25)	3.34 (20)	76% (46)	9% (50)	0.97 (65)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Offense	13	57% (21)	41% (76)	23	33.1	242.1	7.3	10.5	20 (58)	14 (115)	.21 (89)	1.6 (65)	33% (95)	28% (103)	.24 (100)	6% (64)	2.1 (63)
ORST Defense	12	44% (13)	45% (112)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (117)	.31 (104)	1.5 (41)	27% (126)	33% (102)	.46 (121)	6% (75)	2.1 (70)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Defense	13	51% (86)	38% (33)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (18)	.09 (14)	1.5 (34)	30% (94)	29% (37)	.2 (28)	6% (65)	2 (52)
ORST Offense	12	45% (101)	39% (100)	18	30	201.4	6.7	11.2	7 (130)	11 (72)	.09 (125)	1.4 (123)	28% (20)	31% (78)	.16 (123)	6% (84)	1.8 (124)

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -7.58 #86
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 7.58 #106
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 15.16 #70
2025 Talent Rating: 678.00 #74
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #80
Fresno State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4
Fresno State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.2 #88
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #98
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #77

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 499.83
Average Power Five Talent: 859.76
Average FBS Talent: 682.53

Power Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -7.58 Oregon State: -0.825

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -6.2 Oregon State: -2.4

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: -0.825 #79
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 13.86 #69
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 18.11 #88
2025 Talent Rating: 758.00 #57
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #70
Oregon State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.2 - 4.8
Oregon State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.4 #73
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #56
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.3 #85

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 669
Average Power Five Talent: 859.76
Average FBS Talent: 682.53

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 26.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.2
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.2

Fresno State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Oregon State 31
Fresno State 25

Projected Total Points: 53

Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.7
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 30.1

Oregon State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2022	09/10	Fresno State	32	Oregon State	35	Oregon State	Fresno State -1	Oregon State	59.0	Over
2003	09/05	Fresno State	16	Oregon State	14	Fresno State
2002	09/21	Oregon State	59	Fresno State	19	Oregon State
2001	09/02	Fresno State	44	Oregon State	24	Fresno State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Oregon State	2	1	1 Overs
Fresno State	2	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 3	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#86) Fresno State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -7.58 #86
Offense Rating: 7.58 #106
Defense Rating: 15.16 #70
Overall SP+ Rating: -6.2 #88
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #98
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #77
Talent Rating: 678.00 #74
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #80
Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.68 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.63 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Fresno State Notes
(6/3) DE Foreman good, CB Hamilton is a great one
(5/23) DC Benedetto was great at NIU past 3 years
(5/12) Fresno will be physical, biggest spring takeaway
(5/11) HC Entz was great at N Dak St (60-11)
(5/11) OC Davis runs combo spread & RPO, QB run
(5/11) Pass D good LY & DBs return some good parts
(5/11) QB1 Warner out of spring, Conklin signed after
(5/11) Final MWC season, join new Pac 12 in '26
(4/30) Portal QB Conklin (Sac St) big portal add
(4/30) Def OK LY, lost a ton. 9 portals, 4 DL help

Fresno State Ratings Matchup Oregon State

Power #86

#79

Off #106

#69

Def #70

#88

Talent #74

#57

SP+ #88

#73

SP+ Off #98

#56

SP+ Def #77

#85

Previous Matchups
Oregon State beat Fresno State in 2022 (35-32)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Reser Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: FRES | ORST
Depth Chart: FRES | ORST
Rosters: FRES | ORST

(#79) Oregon State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -0.825 #79
Offense Rating: 13.86 #69
Defense Rating: 18.11 #88
Overall SP+ Rating: -2.4 #73
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #56
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.3 #85
Talent Rating: 758.00 #57
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #70
Expected Record: 7.2 - 4.8

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.87 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 48%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.35 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Awful Pass Def Success 45%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Oregon State Notes
(5/10) QB G Johnson is fast and will get packages
(5/10) OL is a big concern. Depth, Spring injuries
(5/10) Big TEs, but looking for deep ball w/ WR core
(5/10) DC Heyward left for Cal DBs? Bray will DC TY
(5/10) Schedule really front loaded, rough start
(5/10) OC Gunderson 1st time calling plays
(3/22) RB Hankerson (1k LY) back, Allah has exp
(3/22) WR returns most, Walker + TE Terry.
(3/22) Def bad LY, returns a lot. Needs DE/CB
(3/22) Bray 1st yr finished 1-6. Team looks better TY

Fresno State's OC Josh Davis

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
E.J. Warner (Tr)	271	438	62%	2710	17	13	6.2
Carson Conklin (Tr)	255	406	63%	2759	27	8	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Donelson	78	472	3	6.1	43
Elijah Gilliam	121	466	8	3.9	24
Johnathan Arceneaux	22	104	0	4.7	20
Rayshon Luke (Tr)	4	13	0	3.3	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elijah Gilliam	32	204	0	6.4	71
Richie Anderson	17	147	0	8.6	18
Josiah Freeman	8	95	2	11.9	34
Bryson Donelson	21	94	1	4.5	14

View Fresno State's Full Roster

Fresno State's DC Nick Benedetto

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alzillion Hamilton	50	5	1	1	12
Jayden Davis	46	1	0	0	2
Jadon Pearson (Tr)	42	3	0	1	2
Kosi Agina	38	2	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Korey Foreman	23	5	2	4	1
Sione Noa	15	3	2	3	0
Alzillion Hamilton	50	5	1	1	12
Jairus Satele	5	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alzillion Hamilton	50	5	1	1	12
Jadon Pearson (Tr)	42	3	0	1	2
Jayden Davis	46	1	0	0	2

Oregon State's OC Ryan Gunderson

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maalik Murphy (Tr)	254	421	60%	2932	26	12	7.0
Gabarri Johnson	15	29	52%	174	0	1	6.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Hankerson	232	1082	15	4.7	83
Salahadin Allah	55	258	1	4.7	21
Marquis Crosby (Tr)	57	224	1	3.9	31
Gabarri Johnson	26	106	1	4.1	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trent Walker	81	901	2	11.1	43
Jermaine Terry II	23	375	1	16.3	43
Darrius Clemons	25	292	2	11.7	44
Tastean Reddicks	17	222	0	13.1	29

View Oregon State's Full Roster

Oregon State's DC Trent Bray

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Skyler Thomas	81	0	0	0	9
Nikko Taylor	46	8	3	7	3
Dexter Foster	43	2	1	2	0
Tyrice Ivy Jr.	35	1	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nikko Taylor	46	8	3	7	3
Oluwaseyi Omotosho	14	1	1	6	0
Dexter Foster	43	2	1	2	0
Semisi Saluni	34	5	1	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Skyler Thomas	81	0	0	0	9
Sailasa Vadrawale	30	1	0	0	4
Nikko Taylor	46	8	3	7	3