New Mexico State vs Fresno State Game Matchup

New Mexico State Aggies vs Fresno State Bulldogs

Saturday, December 16th 2023 (5:45 PM EST)
New Mexico State -3.0 (52.5) (-175) Open: -1.5 | 51.5
Fresno State 37 - New Mexico State: 10 (Isleta New Mexico Bowl)

Aggies (10 - 5) (11 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jerry Kill (9 - 8)
Avg Score : 22 - 36 (13 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 5.6 (#20)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: New Mexico State -0 (SP+ NMSU -0.5)
Projected Score: NMSU: 26 - FRES: 26 (54)
NMSU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
NMSU Travel: 803 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Bulldogs (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jeff Tedford (39 - 18)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (32 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#34)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
NMSU Players
FRES Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	New Mexico State vs Massachusetts	-7.0	45.5	L 30 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/2	New Mexico State vs Western Illinois	-21.0	55.0	W 58 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/9	New Mexico State at Liberty	+9.0	54.5	L 17 - 33	U	N
Sat 9/16	New Mexico State at New Mexico	+2.5	52.0	W 27 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/23	New Mexico State at Hawai'i	+4.0	54.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/4	New Mexico State vs Florida International	-6.5	49.5	W 34 - 17	O	Y
Wed 10/11	New Mexico State vs Sam Houston	-4.5	43.0	W 27 - 13	U	Y
Wed 10/18	New Mexico State at UTEP	-3.0	48.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Tue 10/24	New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech	+3.0	55.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/4	New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee	-3.0	55.5	W 13 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/11	New Mexico State at Western Kentucky	+4.5	55.5	W 38 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/18	New Mexico State at Auburn	+25.5	48.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/25	New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State	-2.0	48.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Fri 12/1	New Mexico State at Liberty	+10.5	54.0	L 35 - 49	O	N
Sat 12/16	New Mexico State vs Fresno State	-3.0	52.5	L 10 - 37	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule

Fresno State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Fresno State at Purdue	+4.0	47.0	W 39 - 35	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Fresno State vs Eastern Washington	-31.5	63.5	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/16	Fresno State at Arizona State	-4.0	48.0	W 29 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Fresno State vs Kent State	-27.5	47.5	W 53 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Fresno State vs Nevada	-25.5	50.5	W 27 - 9	U	N
Sat 10/7	Fresno State at Wyoming	-5.5	43.0	L 19 - 24	U	N
Fri 10/13	Fresno State at Utah State	-5.5	56.0	W 37 - 32	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Fresno State vs UNLV	-10.5	56.0	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/4	Fresno State vs Boise State	-2.5	53.5	W 37 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Fresno State at San José State	+2.5	51.5	L 18 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/18	Fresno State vs New Mexico	-22.5	58.5	L 17 - 25	U	N
Sat 11/25	Fresno State at San Diego State	-5.5	47.0	L 18 - 33	O	N
Sat 12/16	Fresno State vs New Mexico State	+3.0	52.5	W 37 - 10	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU	.18	38%	21.6	40%	2.88	162	36%	169	4.18	.16	43%	36.3	47%	40%	3.86	57.4	1.4	1.2
FRES	.24	47%	26.1	47%	3.07	133	48%	270	4.22	.15	39%	24.8	42%	37%	3.29	41.1	1	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FRES		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Offense	13	21.6	12.6	37.7%	4.18	1.4	17	331	162	169	4.6	56%	43%	40%	36%	19%	.18
FRES Defense	14	24.8	18	39%	3.29	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	42%	37%	18%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Defense	13	36.3	38.4	43%	3.86	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	47%	40%	17%	.16
FRES Offense	14	26.1	32	47.1%	4.22	1	22	403	133	270	4	42%	57%	47%	48%	11%	.24

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico State	13	28:51	16.6	39%	73%	6.5	57.4	1.4	1.2	5.5	2.1	1	28.7
Fresno State	14	31:16	21.9	46%	50%	4.5	41.1	1	1.6	5.1	1.6	3	30.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense	13	56%	40%	34.9	161.6	4.6	24	.13	2.88	84%	11%	1.08
FRES Defense	14	51%	42%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.15	69%	9%	1.04

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense	13	53%	47%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.11	78%	11%	0.9
FRES Offense	14	42%	47%	33.2	133	4	28	.17	3.07	77%	8%	0.86

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense	13	43%	36%	12.2	23.5	169.2	7.2	13.8	18	13	.25	1.9	35%	30%	.32	8%	2
FRES Defense	14	48%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.16	1.6	35%	32%	.32	9%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense	13	46%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.21	1.5	30%	30%	.37	6%	2
FRES Offense	14	57%	48%	23.8	33.7	269.6	8	11.3	22	9	.35	1.3	28%	32%	.36	3%	1.8

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: 0.03 #60
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 23.21 #17
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 10.44 #77
2023 Talent Rating: 252.00 #128
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
New Mexico State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.40 - 5.60
New Mexico State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.0 #62
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #75
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #46

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 300
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: 0.03 Fresno State: 0.285

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: 1.0 Fresno State: 0.5

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: 0.285 #59
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 18.02 #53
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 7.82 #45
2023 Talent Rating: 498.00 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Fresno State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 4.50
Fresno State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.5 #63
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #58
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 492.67
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.6
Defense: 36.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 38.4

New Mexico State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 5
Record vs Spread: 11 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
New Mexico State 26
Fresno State 26

Projected Total Points: 54

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 26.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 32
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 18

Fresno State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/14	Fresno State	48	New Mexico State	0	Fresno State	Fresno State -19.5	Fresno State	48.5	Under
2023	12/16	Fresno State	37	New Mexico State	10	Fresno State	New Mexico State -3.0	Fresno State	52.5	Under
2019	09/28	New Mexico State	17	Fresno State	30	Fresno State	Fresno State -20	New Mexico State	63.5	Under
2011	11/12	New Mexico State	48	Fresno State	45	New Mexico State
2010	10/16	Fresno State	33	New Mexico State	10	Fresno State
2009	10/24	New Mexico State	3	Fresno State	34	Fresno State
2008	11/15	Fresno State	24	New Mexico State	17	Fresno State
2007	11/30	New Mexico State	23	Fresno State	30	Fresno State
2006	11/11	Fresno State	23	New Mexico State	18	Fresno State
2005	10/08	New Mexico State	7	Fresno State	37	Fresno State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Fresno State	9	2	0 Overs
New Mexico State	1	1	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 4	3 - 0	1 - 0	2 - 0
Road Teams	4 - 6	0 - 3	0 - 2	0 - 1

New Mexico State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Mexico Bowl	New Mexico State vs Fresno State	-3.0	52.5	L 10 - 37
2022	Lane Bowl	New Mexico State vs Bowling Green	+3.0	51.0	W 24 - 19
2017	N/A	New Mexico State vs Utah State	-4.0	61.0	W 26 - 20

Fresno State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Mexico Bowl	Fresno State vs New Mexico State	+3.0	52.5	W 37 - 10
2022	La Bowl	Fresno State vs Washington State	-5.5	54.0	W 29 - 6
2021	Mexico Bowl	Fresno State vs UTEP	-11.5	51.5	W 31 - 24
2018	Vegas Bowl	Fresno State vs Arizona State	-6.0	54.0	W 31 - 20
2017	I Bowl	Fresno State vs Houston	+2.5	52.0	W 33 - 27

(#60) New Mexico State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 0.03 #60
Offense Rating: 23.21 #17
Defense Rating: 10.44 #77
Overall SP+ Rating: 1.0 #62
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #75
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #46
Talent Rating: 252.00 #128
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 9.40 - 5.60

Team Profile

,
,

New Mexico State has played in 2 Bowls in the last 5 years (1 - 1)
New Mexico State has played in 3 Bowls since 2000 (2 - 1)

New Mexico State Ratings Matchup Fresno State

Power #60

#59

Off #17

#53

Def #77

#45

Talent #128

#89

SP+ #62

#63

SP+ Off #75

#58

SP+ Def #46

#82

Rematch from Week 1
New Mexico State 3.0 (52.5)
Fresno State won vs New Mexico State this year (37-10)

Previous Matchups
Fresno State beat New Mexico State last year (48-0)
Fresno State beat New Mexico State in 2023 (37-10)

Weather Forecast
Playing in University Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 49°

Team Information
Injuries: NMSU | FRES
Depth Chart: NMSU | FRES
Rosters: NMSU | FRES

(#59) Fresno State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 0.285 #59
Offense Rating: 18.02 #53
Defense Rating: 7.82 #45
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.5 #63
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #58
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82
Talent Rating: 498.00 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 8.50 - 4.50

Team Profile

,
,

Fresno State has played in 5 Bowls in the last 5 years (4 - 1)
Fresno State has played in 19 Bowls since 2000 (9 - 10)

New Mexico State's OC Tim Beck

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Diego Pavia	177	298	59%	2293	20	4	7.7
Eli Stowers (Tr)	1	2	50%	17	1	0	8.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Star Thomas	213	871	7	4.1	44
Diego Pavia	193	800	8	4.1	36
Ahmonte Watkins	16	66	0	4.1	24
Jordin Parker	3	55	0	18.3	36

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eli Stowers (Tr)	49	638	5	13.0	41
Ta'ir Brooks	22	367	4	16.7	68
Jonathan Brady	34	366	3	10.8	30
Kordell David	18	191	0	10.6	38

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

New Mexico State's DC Nate Dreiling

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Vincent (Tr)	117	1	0	1	2
Myles Rowser (Tr)	98	4	1	2	4
Keyshaun Elliott	64	4	2	2	1
Dylan Early	48	0	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Buddha Peleti	20	6	4	6	1
Denver Warren	21	3	3	1	1
Keyshaun Elliott	64	4	2	2	1
Jeremiah Vessel	10	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malachi McLean	44	1	0	0	4
Myles Rowser (Tr)	98	4	1	2	4
Keonte Glinton (Tr)	34	1	0	0	3

Fresno State's OC Pat McCann

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Logan Fife	157	246	64%	1781	13	2	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Logan Fife	52	120	5	2.3	22
Mac Dalena	5	39	0	7.8	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Mac Dalena	60	998	8	16.6	75
Tre Watson	21	280	1	13.3	33
Artis Cole	12	152	1	12.7	30
Jake Boust	4	30	0	7.5	10

View Fresno State's Full Roster

Fresno State's DC Kevin Coyle

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tuasivi Nomura (Tr)	102	7	0	0	3
Malachi Langley	73	3	3	7	0
Dean Clark (Tr)	56	3	2	2	4
Devo Bridges	49	7	2	6	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malachi Langley	73	3	3	7	0
Dean Clark (Tr)	56	3	2	2	4
Devo Bridges	49	7	2	6	1
Kemari Bailey	5	2	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cameron Lockridge	37	2	0	0	6
Dean Clark (Tr)	56	3	2	2	4
Tuasivi Nomura (Tr)	102	7	0	0	3