New Mexico State at Fresno State - 2023 Matchup Preview

New Mexico State Aggies vs Fresno State Bulldogs

Saturday, December 16th 2023 (5:45 PM EST)
New Mexico State -3.0 (52.5) (-175) Open: -1.5 | 51.5
Fresno State 37 - New Mexico State: 10 (Isleta New Mexico Bowl)

Aggies (10 - 5) (11 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jerry Kill (9 - 8)
Avg Score : 22 - 28 (20 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 5.6 (#20)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: New Mexico State -0 (SP+ NMSU -0.5)
Projected Score: NMSU: 25 - FRES: 25 (51)
NMSU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
NMSU Travel: 193 miles

Bulldogs (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jeff Tedford (39 - 18)
Avg Score : 26 - 19 (27 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#34)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
NMSU Players
FRES Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	New Mexico State vs Massachusetts	-7.0	45.5	L 30 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/2	New Mexico State vs Western Illinois	-21.0	55.0	W 58 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/9	New Mexico State at Liberty	+9.0	54.5	L 17 - 33	U	N
Sat 9/16	New Mexico State at New Mexico	+2.5	52.0	W 27 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/23	New Mexico State at Hawai'i	+4.0	54.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/4	New Mexico State vs Florida International	-6.5	49.5	W 34 - 17	O	Y
Wed 10/11	New Mexico State vs Sam Houston	-4.5	43.0	W 27 - 13	U	Y
Wed 10/18	New Mexico State at UTEP	-3.0	48.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Tue 10/24	New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech	+3.0	55.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/4	New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee	-3.0	55.5	W 13 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/11	New Mexico State at Western Kentucky	+4.5	55.5	W 38 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/18	New Mexico State at Auburn	+25.5	48.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/25	New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State	-2.0	48.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Fri 12/1	New Mexico State at Liberty	+10.5	54.0	L 35 - 49	O	N
Sat 12/16	New Mexico State vs Fresno State	-3.0	52.5	L 10 - 37	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule

Fresno State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Fresno State at Purdue	+4.0	47.0	W 39 - 35	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Fresno State vs Eastern Washington	-31.5	63.5	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/16	Fresno State at Arizona State	-4.0	48.0	W 29 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Fresno State vs Kent State	-27.5	47.5	W 53 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Fresno State vs Nevada	-25.5	50.5	W 27 - 9	U	N
Sat 10/7	Fresno State at Wyoming	-5.5	43.0	L 19 - 24	U	N
Fri 10/13	Fresno State at Utah State	-5.5	56.0	W 37 - 32	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Fresno State vs UNLV	-10.5	56.0	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/4	Fresno State vs Boise State	-2.5	53.5	W 37 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Fresno State at San José State	+2.5	51.5	L 18 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/18	Fresno State vs New Mexico	-22.5	58.5	L 17 - 25	U	N
Sat 11/25	Fresno State at San Diego State	-5.5	47.0	L 18 - 33	O	N
Sat 12/16	Fresno State vs New Mexico State	+3.0	52.5	W 37 - 10	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU	.18	38%	21.6	40%	2.88	162	36%	169	4.18	.16	43%	27.6	47%	40%	3.86	57.4	1.4	1.2
FRES	.24	47%	25.8	47%	3.07	133	48%	270	4.22	.15	39%	18.8	42%	37%	3.29	41.1	1	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FRES		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Offense	13	21.6	20	37.7%	4.18	1.4	17	331	162	169	4.6	56%	43%	40%	36%	19%	.18
FRES Defense	14	18.8	15.3	39%	3.29	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	42%	37%	18%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Defense	13	27.6	37.5	43%	3.86	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	47%	40%	17%	.16
FRES Offense	14	25.8	26.5	47.1%	4.22	1	22	403	133	270	4	42%	57%	47%	48%	11%	.24

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico State	13	28:51	16.6	39%	73%	6.5	57.4	1.4	1.2	5.5	2.1	1	28.7
Fresno State	14	31:16	21.9	46%	50%	4.5	41.1	1	1.6	5.1	1.6	3	30.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense	13	56%	40%	34.9	161.6	4.6	24	.13	2.88	84%	11%	1.08
FRES Defense	14	51%	42%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.15	69%	9%	1.04

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense	13	53%	47%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.11	78%	11%	0.9
FRES Offense	14	42%	47%	33.2	133	4	28	.17	3.07	77%	8%	0.86

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense	13	43%	36%	12.2	23.5	169.2	7.2	13.8	18	13	.25	1.9	35%	30%	.32	8%	2
FRES Defense	14	48%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.16	1.6	35%	32%	.32	9%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense	13	46%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.21	1.5	30%	30%	.37	6%	2
FRES Offense	14	57%	48%	23.8	33.7	269.6	8	11.3	22	9	.35	1.3	28%	32%	.36	3%	1.8

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: 0.03 #60
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 23.21 #17
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 10.44 #77
2023 Talent Rating: 378.99 #115
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
New Mexico State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.40 - 5.60
New Mexico State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.0 #62
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #75
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #46

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 303.49
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: 0.03 Fresno State: 0.285

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: 1.0 Fresno State: 0.5

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: 0.285 #59
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 18.02 #53
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 7.82 #45
2023 Talent Rating: 555.30 #78
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Fresno State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 4.50
Fresno State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.5 #63
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #58
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 517.06
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.5

New Mexico State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 5
Record vs Spread: 11 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 10
Record on Road: 5 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
New Mexico State 25
Fresno State 25

Projected Total Points: 51

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.5
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.3

Fresno State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/14	Fresno State	48	New Mexico State	0	Fresno State -19.5	Fresno State	48.5	Under
2023	12/16	Fresno State	37	New Mexico State	10	New Mexico State -3.0	Fresno State	52.5	Under
2019	09/28	New Mexico State	17	Fresno State	30	Fresno State -20	New Mexico State	63.5	Under
2011	11/12	New Mexico State	48	Fresno State	45
2010	10/16	Fresno State	33	New Mexico State	10
2009	10/24	New Mexico State	3	Fresno State	34
2008	11/15	Fresno State	24	New Mexico State	17
2007	11/30	New Mexico State	23	Fresno State	30
2006	11/11	Fresno State	23	New Mexico State	18
2005	10/08	New Mexico State	7	Fresno State	37

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Fresno State	9	2	0 Overs
New Mexico State	1	1	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 4	3 - 0	1 - 0	2 - 0
Road Teams	4 - 6	0 - 3	0 - 2	0 - 1

New Mexico State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Mexico Bowl	New Mexico State vs Fresno State	-3.0	52.5	L 10 - 37
2022	Lane Bowl	New Mexico State vs Bowling Green	+3.0	51.0	W 24 - 19
2017	N/A	New Mexico State vs Utah State	-4.0	61.0	W 26 - 20

Fresno State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Mexico Bowl	Fresno State vs New Mexico State	+3.0	52.5	W 37 - 10
2022	La Bowl	Fresno State vs Washington State	-5.5	54.0	W 29 - 6
2021	Mexico Bowl	Fresno State vs UTEP	-11.5	51.5	W 31 - 24
2018	Vegas Bowl	Fresno State vs Arizona State	-6.0	54.0	W 31 - 20
2017	I Bowl	Fresno State vs Houston	+2.5	52.0	W 33 - 27

(#60) NMSU at (#59) FRES

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NMSU	FRES
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#60	#59
SP+SP+	#62	#63
Perf GradeGrade	#80	#63
OffenseOff	#58	#44
DefenseDef	#107	#100
Spec TeamsST	#107	#74
TalentTal	#115	#78
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

New Mexico State Injury Report

Fresno State Injury Report

New Mexico State on Offense


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	FRES Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#58	#100
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#17	#45
SP+SP+	#75	#82
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

New Mexico State Run Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	#10	#118
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#96	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#100

New Mexico State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	#47	#55
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#109	#79
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Fresno State on Offense


CategoryCat	FRES Off	NMSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#44	#107
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#53	#77
SP+SP+	#58	#46
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Fresno State Run Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	NMSU Def
Run GameRun	#84	#102
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#86	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#119

Fresno State Pass Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	NMSU Def
Pass GamePass	#28	#107
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#47	#68
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'23 Profile: Remains Top G5

NMSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in University Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
New Mexico State 3.0 (52.5)
Fresno State won vs New Mexico State this year (37-10)

Previous Matchups
Fresno State beat New Mexico State in 2024 (48-0)
Fresno State beat New Mexico State in 2023 (37-10)

NMSU's OC Tim Beck (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Diego Pavia	221	366	60%	2973	26	9	8.1
Blaze Berlowitz	10	19	53%	134	1	1	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Diego Pavia	176	923	7	5.2	44
Star Thomas	112	653	4	5.8	40
Ahmonte Watkins	59	572	2	9.7	80
Jamoni Jones	87	343	3	3.9	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jonathan Brady	38	624	4	16.4	80
Trent Hudson	34	545	10	16.0	78
Eli Stowers (Tr)	35	366	2	10.5	32
Chris Bellamy	18	282	1	15.7	52

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Nate Dreiling (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keyshaun Elliott	110	10	3	4	6
Myles Rowser (Tr)	70	0	0	0	2
Jordan Vincent (Tr)	65	3	2	0	3
Jeremiah Dervil	62	1	0	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Sterling Webb	30	6	5	1
Buddha Peleti	34	7	5	4
Izaiah Reed	23	4	4	5
Gabe Peterson	55	9	4	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Andre Seldon	53	3	0	0	7
Keyshaun Elliott	110	10	3	4	6
Keonte Glinton (Tr)	18	0	0	1	6

FRES's OC Pat McCann (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Mikey Keene (Tr)	282	419	67%	2976	24	10	7.1
Logan Fife	52	92	57%	630	3	2	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malik Sherrod	172	967	9	5.6	72
Elijah Gilliam	96	396	5	4.1	24
Logan Fife	28	52	1	1.9	16
Devon Rivers	12	44	0	3.7	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Erik Brooks	59	771	5	13.1	49
Jalen Moss	55	706	6	12.8	60
Jaelen Gill (Tr)	50	525	6	10.5	65
Mac Dalena	46	508	3	11.0	39

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Kevin Coyle (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dean Clark (Tr)	80	1	0	2	3
Malachi Langley	79	5	1	1	0
Levelle Bailey	78	6	3	0	5
Morice Norris	57	10	4	0	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacob Holmes	17	8	5	1	0
Morice Norris	57	10	4	0	10
Devo Bridges	50	8	4	7	1
Levelle Bailey	78	6	3	0	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Morice Norris	57	10	4	0	10
Carlton Johnson	52	1	0	1	7
Alzillion Hamilton	31	0	0	0	7