San Diego State at Fresno State - 2025 Matchup Preview
San Diego State logo   San Diego State Aztecs at Fresno State Bulldogs  Fresno State logo
Saturday, October 25th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
San Diego State -3 (46.5) (-155)  Open: -2.5
San Diego State 23 - Fresno State: 0  (Mountain West)

 
Aztecs (9 - 4) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 26 - 15 (18 - 18 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 3.6 (#29)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
SDSU coming off BYE
FRES coming off BYE
Our Line: San Diego State -5.5  (SP+ SDSU -5)

Projected Score: SDSU: 25 - FRES: 19 (44)
SDSU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
SDSU Travel: 316 miles
Bulldogs (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Matt Entz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 19 (27 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
 
San Diego State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 San Diego State vs Stony Brook-19.553.5W 42 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 San Diego State at Washington State+2.046.5L 13 - 36ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 San Diego State vs California+14.047.5W 34 - 0UY
Sat 9/27 San Diego State at Northern Illinois-1.541.5W 6 - 3UY
Fri 10/3 San Diego State vs Colorado State-4.540.5W 45 - 24OY
Sat 10/11 San Diego State at Nevada-6.542.5W 44 - 10OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 San Diego State at Fresno State-3.046.5W 23 - 0UY
Sat 11/1 San Diego State vs Wyoming-10.042.5W 24 - 7UY
Sat 11/8 San Diego State at Hawai'i-6.548.5L 6 - 38UN
Sat 11/15 San Diego State vs Boise State-1.541.5W 17 - 7UY
Sat 11/22 San Diego State vs San José State-10.050.5W 25 - 3UY
Fri 11/28 San Diego State at New Mexico-1.541.5L 17 - 23UN
Sat 12/27 San Diego State vs North Texas+7.555.5L 47 - 49OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule
Fresno State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Fresno State at Kansas+14.051.5L 7 - 31UN
Sat 8/30 Fresno State vs Georgia Southern-2.554.5W 42 - 14OY
Sat 9/6 Fresno State at Oregon State+1.045.5W 36 - 27OY
Sat 9/13 Fresno State vs Southern-37.551.5W 56 - 7OY
Sat 9/20 Fresno State at Hawai'i-2.547.5W 23 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Fresno State vs Nevada-12.545.5W 20 - 17UN
Fri 10/10 Fresno State at Colorado State-5.547.5L 21 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Fresno State vs San Diego State+3.046.5L 0 - 23UN
Sat 11/1 Fresno State at Boise State+17.547.5W 30 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Fresno State vs Wyoming-3.040.5W 24 - 3UY
Sat 11/22 Fresno State vs Utah State-1.550.5L 17 - 28UN
Sat 11/29 Fresno State at San José State-3.546.0W 41 - 14OY
Sat 12/27 Fresno State vs Miami (OH)-5.041.0W 18 - 3UY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU#108 (.12)37% (120)26.437% (124)3 (78)12938% (109)2063.44 (107)#103 (.23)46% (113)15.449% (117)43% (98)4.28 (111)81.80.81
FRES#110 (.11)39% (110)25.838% (121)2.73 (115)10141% (76)2423.68 (91)#17 (.08)40% (51)18.843% (74)38% (33)3.63 (47)551.31.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FRES0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Offense1226.418.237.4%3.440.8193351292063.747%52%37%38%18%.12
FRES Defense1318.815.340.3%3.631.5 - - - - - 49%51%43%38%14%.08
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Defense1215.418.346.1%4.281 - - - - - 55%44%49%43%12%.23
FRES Offense1325.826.539.2%3.681.3193431012423.442%57%38%41%14%.11

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
San Diego State1227:0818.536%53%9.181.80.815.42.6231
Fresno State1327:2918.939%42%6.2551.31.54.41.5230.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Offense1247% (87)37% (124)35.3128.93.713 (105).1 (84)3 (78)69% (97)12% (114)1.06 (37)
FRES Defense1349% (49)43% (74) - - - - .08 (48)2.94 (56)71% (56)8% (121)0.81 (7)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Defense1255% (117)49% (117) - - - - .21 (113)3.49 (130)80% (109)9% (98)0.94 (47)
FRES Offense1342% (115)38% (121)29.2100.73.421 (59).04 (111)2.73 (115)69% (96)8% (34)0.95 (76)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Offense1252% (45)38% (109)19.531.3205.76.610.615 (98)8 (40).15 (107)1.5 (99)36% (125)26% (114).29 (87)6% (61)2 (77)
FRES Defense1351% (86)38% (33) - - - - - - 15 (18).09 (14)1.5 (34)30% (94)29% (37).2 (28)6% (65)2 (52)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Defense1244% (17)43% (98) - - - - - - 7 (104).28 (96)1.6 (75)29% (112)38% (126).52 (126)3% (133)2.1 (79)
FRES Offense1357% (21)41% (76)2333.1242.17.310.520 (58)14 (115).21 (89)1.6 (65)33% (95)28% (103).24 (100)6% (64)2.1 (63)

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: 1.70  #60
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 8.16  #99
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 6.46  #29
2025 Talent Rating: 594.00  #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
San Diego State's 2025 Expected Record: 9.4 - 3.6
San Diego State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.7  #43
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4  #90
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.6  #28

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: 1.70   Fresno State: -1.525

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: 6.7   Fresno State: 1.8




Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -1.525  #102
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 5.63  #117
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 15.48  #84
2025 Talent Rating: 684.00  #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
Fresno State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Fresno State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.8  #66
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0  #100
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1  #37

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 26.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.2
Defense: 15.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.3

San Diego State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
San Diego State 25
Fresno State 19


Projected Total Points: 44
Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.5
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.3

Fresno State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/25Fresno State0San Diego State23San Diego State -3San Diego State46.5Under
202311/25San Diego State33Fresno State18Fresno State -5.5San Diego State47.0Over
202210/29Fresno State32San Diego State28Fresno State -10San Diego State43.5Over
202110/30San Diego State20Fresno State30Fresno State -2Fresno State43.5Over
201911/15San Diego State17Fresno State7San Diego State -1San Diego State43.0Under
201811/17Fresno State23San Diego State14Fresno State -13San Diego State42.5Under
201710/21San Diego State3Fresno State27San Diego State -6.5Fresno State49.5Under
201610/14Fresno State3San Diego State17San Diego State -17.5Fresno State51.0Under
201510/03San Diego State21Fresno State7San Diego State -9.5San Diego State51.5Under
201410/03Fresno State24San Diego State13San Diego State -2Fresno State0
201310/26San Diego State28Fresno State35Fresno State -9.5San Diego State0
201209/29Fresno State52San Diego State40
201112/03San Diego State35Fresno State28
200208/29Fresno State16San Diego State14
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Fresno State843 Overs
San Diego State676 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 56 - 52 - 34 - 2
Road Teams5 - 95 - 62 - 43 - 2

(#60) SDSU at (#102) FRES
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSDSUFRES
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #60 #102
SP+SP+ #43 #66
Perf GradeGrade #20 #61
OffenseOff #61 #64
DefenseDef #13 #68
Spec TeamsST #58 #26
TalentTal #95 #80
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #88
San Diego State Notes
(11/28) Great season goes thud w/ meltdown in 20T vs N Mex
(10/28) New DC Aurich leading #2 Def in all CFB. 10.4 ppg
(10/22) Top 3 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/4) Killed CSU, most total yards since '20. 250+ Pass/Run
(9/28) Def great, 3 points in last 2 games. Red Zone D tops
(9/23) CB Chris Johnson a lockdown, #2 Phillips good too
(9/21) Beat the brakes off Cal. Forced 3 TOs, Great win
(9/21) Defense is good, Offense is really bad. QBs bad
(8/1) OL 3/5 back, 4 portals, dont love OT on paper
(8/1) Def bad LY, 10 starters back, new DC Aurich
(8/1) Lewis also the OC, offense awful LY, team quit
(8/1) Fast offense, large totals. QB Emanuel key ?
San Diego State Injury Report
Fresno State Notes
(10/28) QB Warner benched, Conklin was bad vs SDSU
(10/28) Entz says Conklin QB1 at least for now
(10/9) Off started out hot but cooled lately. QB Warner JAG
(9/23) LB Tim Thomas no longer with team
(9/23) OL has improved, run game good. Pass Off poor
(9/23) Def #'s really poor despite 4-1 start. On watch
(9/9) QB Warner brutal start, 0 TD - 5 INT
(9/1) OG C McHarg out for season (Sr, Starter)
(8/1) Def OK LY, lost a ton. 10 portals, 4 DL help
(8/1) OL returns 3/5, meh LY but 5 portal adds help
(8/1) OC Davis = slow ground combo spread & RPO
(8/1) Pass D good LY & DBs good, A Hamilton big keep
Fresno State Injury Report
San Diego State on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffFRES Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #61 #68
SuccessSuc #120 #51
ExplosiveExp #51 #13
PPAPPA #108 #17
PowerPwr #99 #84
SP+SP+ #90 #37
Pts POPPO #107 #47
HavocHav #99 #113
San Diego State Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffFRES Def
Run GameRun #31 #99
Run SuccessRSuc #124 #74
Run ExplRExp #37 #7
PPAExp #84 #48
Run BlockR Blk #48 -
OL YdsOLY #78 #56
Stuff RateStuff #35 #65
TackleTak -  #76
San Diego State Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffFRES Def
Pass GamePass #114 #27
Pass SuccessPSuc #109 #33
Pass ExplPExl #99 #34
PPAExp #107 #14
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #47 #78
F7 HavocF7 #114 #121
DB HavocDB #61 #65
Fresno State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatFRES OffSDSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #64 #13
SuccessSuc #110 #113
ExplosiveExp #38 #44
PPAPPA #110 #103
PowerPwr #117 #29
SP+SP+ #100 #28
Pts POPPO #91 #111
HavocHav #34 #131
Fresno State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
FRES OffSDSU Def
Run GameRun #44 #22
Run SuccessRSuc #121 #117
Run ExplRExp #76 #47
PPAExp #111 #113
Run BlockR Blk #45 -
OL YdsOLY #115 #130
Stuff RateStuff #85 #132
TackleTak -  #53
Fresno State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatFRES OffSDSU Def
Pass GamePass #85 #13
Pass SuccessPSuc #76 #98
Pass ExplPExl #65 #75
PPAExp #89 #96
Pass Block/RushP Blk #22 #49
F7 HavocF7 #34 #98
DB HavocDB #64 #133
Program Comparison
FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

SDSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 9
San Diego State 3.0 (46.5)
San Diego State won at Fresno State this year (23-0)

Previous Matchups
San Diego State beat Fresno State last year (23-0)
San Diego State beat Fresno State in 2023 (33-18)

  
SDSU's OC Sean Lewis (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jayden Denegal (Tr)14324459%1810987.4
Kyle Crum142948%169125.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lucky Sutton2531292105.150
Christian Washington (Tr)9756045.841
Bert Emanuel Jr. (Tr)3227328.572
Byron Cardwell4826715.622
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Napier48632213.280
Donovan Brown33518215.752
Nathan Acevedo (Tr)16190011.942
Jacob Bostick (Tr)11157314.335

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Rob Aurich (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Owen Chambliss909445
Dalesean Staley701008
Chris Johnson473127
Trey White47117121
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey White47117121
Ryan Henderson219741
Niles King2910720
Owen Chambliss909445
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dalesean Staley701008
Chris Johnson473127
Eric Butler391036

FRES's OC Josh Davis (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
E.J. Warner (Tr)19227769%203013117.3
Carson Conklin (Tr)479649%354123.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rayshon Luke (Tr)11069966.469
Bryson Donelson14258354.157
Brandon Ramirez6027134.519
Johnathan Arceneaux4026726.758
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josiah Freeman52642612.351
Richie Anderson3130039.725
Ezekiel Avit (Tr)2825509.141
Rayshon Luke (Tr)3622826.323

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Nick Benedetto (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jadon Pearson (Tr)966013
Simeon Harris (Tr)537105
Camryn Bracha523004
Finn Claypool (Tr)4111741
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Finn Claypool (Tr)4111741
Korey Foreman196422
Jahzon Jacks327430
Deijon Laffitte275303
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jakari Embry260007
Simeon Harris (Tr)537105
Ryan Wilson252104