San Diego State at Fresno State - 2025 Matchup Preview
San Diego State logo San Diego State Aztecs at Fresno State BulldogsFresno State logo
Saturday, October 25th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Bulldog Stadium - Fresno, CA  (Mountain West)

 
Aztecs (1 - 1) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 28 - 18 (13 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 5.5 (#75)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
SDSU coming off BYE
FRES coming off BYE
Our Line: Fresno State -2   (SP+ FRES -9)

Projected Score: SDSU: 26 - FRES: 28 (53)
FRES Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
SDSU Travel: 316 miles
Bulldogs (3 - 1) (3 - 1 - 0)
Coach Matt Entz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 35 - 20 (49 - 11 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 4.6 (#52)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
 
San Diego State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 San Diego State vs Stony Brook-19.553.5W 42 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 San Diego State at Washington State+2.046.5L 13 - 36ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 San Diego State vs California+12.548.5
Sat 9/27 San Diego State at Northern Illinois+1
Sat 10/4 San Diego State vs Colorado State-4.5
Sat 10/11 San Diego State at Nevada-9
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 San Diego State at Fresno State+2
Sat 11/1 San Diego State vs Wyoming-2.5
Sat 11/8 San Diego State at Hawai'i-1
Sat 11/15 San Diego State vs Boise State+7.5
Sat 11/22 San Diego State vs San José State-6
Sat 11/29 San Diego State at New Mexico-7

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule
Fresno State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Fresno State at Kansas+14.051.5L 7 - 31UN
Sat 8/30 Fresno State vs Georgia Southern-2.554.5W 42 - 14OY
Sat 9/6 Fresno State at Oregon State+1.045.5W 36 - 27OY
Sat 9/13 Fresno State vs Southern-37.551.5W 56 - 7OY
Sat 9/20 Fresno State at Hawai'i-3.047.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Fresno State vs Nevada-13.5
Sat 10/11 Fresno State at Colorado State+1.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Fresno State vs San Diego State-2
Sat 11/1 Fresno State at Boise State+13
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Fresno State vs Wyoming-2
Sat 11/22 Fresno State vs Utah State-9
Sat 11/29 Fresno State at San José State-0.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU#90 (.14)40% (95)27.549% (44)3.25 (43)15531% (126)1854.36 (49)#28 ()33% (21)1838% (66)28% (14)3.78 (77)51.500
FRES#51 (.25)44% (64)35.344% (70)2.7 (97)20347% (47)1903.58 (90)#126 (.36)50% (125)19.846% (100)53% (129)4.75 (115)4520.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU#108 (.12)37% (120)37% (124)3 (78)12938% (109)2063.44 (107)#103 (.23)46% (113)49% (117)43% (98)4.28 (111)81.80.81
FRES#110 (.11)39% (110)38% (121)2.73 (115)10141% (76)2423.68 (91)#17 (.08)40% (51)43% (74)38% (33)3.63 (47)551.31.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Offense227.51340.4%4.360173341551853.754%45%49%31%13%.14
FRES Defense419.810.549.7%4.750.8 - - - - - 46%53%46%53%13%.36
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Defense2183632.8%3.780 - - - - - 46%54%38%28%11%
FRES Offense435.34943.9%3.582223932031905.855%42%44%47%17%.25

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
San Diego State231:091734%50%6.551.50041.5031.7
Fresno State430:332251%67%4.54520.84.81.5229.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Offense254% (47)49% (44)421553.75 (62).18 (54)3.25 (43)80% (36)6% (27)0.79 (113)
FRES Defense446% (43)46% (100) - - - - .13 (95)3.28 (120)100% (127)7% (118)0.74 (22)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Defense246% (39)38% (66) - - - - .01 (51)2.89 (79)62% (39)6% (121)0.81 (38)
FRES Offense455% (45)44% (70)35.32035.812 (3).13 (70)2.7 (97)75% (52)11% (107)1.25 (22)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Offense245% (90)31% (126)15.529.5184.56.311.92 (102)0 (1).12 (111)2 (9)32% (92)30% (85).25 (88)6% (96)2.1 (51)
FRES Defense453% (89)53% (129) - - - - - - 3 (28).55 (126)1.5 (71)32% (78)38% (120).45 (108)7% (45)1.8 (50)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Defense254% (100)28% (14) - - - - - - 0-.01 (20)1.2 (12)34% (61)11% (4)-.1 (9)5% (91)1.7 (35)
FRES Offense442% (109)47% (47)1926189.57.3104 (72)5 (129).55 (19)1.7 (27)30% (63)45% (15).77 (12)6% (92)2.3 (22)

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: -1.82 #83
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 4.98 #104
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 6.79 #67
2025 Talent Rating: 594.00 #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
San Diego State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.5 - 5.5
San Diego State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.9 #95
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.4 #121
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #72

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -1.82   Fresno State: -3.56

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -8.9   Fresno State: -0.3




Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -3.56 #109
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 7.37 #92
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 19.19 #115
2025 Talent Rating: 684.00 #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Fresno State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.4 - 4.6
Fresno State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.3 #73
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #69
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 27.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 13
Defense: 18 PPG
Defense on Road: 36

San Diego State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Fresno State 28
San Diego State 26


Total Points: 53

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 35.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 49
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 10.5

Fresno State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/25San Diego State33Fresno State18San Diego StateFresno State -5.5San Diego State47.0Over
202210/29Fresno State32San Diego State28Fresno StateFresno State -10San Diego State43.5Over
202110/30San Diego State20Fresno State30Fresno StateFresno State -2Fresno State43.5Over
201911/15San Diego State17Fresno State7San Diego StateSan Diego State -1San Diego State43.0Under
201811/17Fresno State23San Diego State14Fresno StateFresno State -13San Diego State42.5Under
201710/21San Diego State3Fresno State27Fresno StateSan Diego State -6.5Fresno State49.5Under
201610/14Fresno State3San Diego State17San Diego StateSan Diego State -17.5Fresno State51.0Under
201510/03San Diego State21Fresno State7San Diego StateSan Diego State -9.5San Diego State51.5Under
201410/03Fresno State24San Diego State13Fresno StateSan Diego State -2Fresno State0
201310/26San Diego State28Fresno State35Fresno StateFresno State -9.5San Diego State0
201209/29Fresno State52San Diego State40Fresno State
201112/03San Diego State35Fresno State28San Diego State
200208/29Fresno State16San Diego State14Fresno State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Fresno State843 Overs
San Diego State565 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 46 - 42 - 34 - 1
Road Teams4 - 94 - 61 - 43 - 2

(#83) San Diego State Info
Power Rating: -1.82 #83
Offense Rating: 4.98 #104
Defense Rating: 6.79 #67
Overall SP+ Rating: -8.9 #95
Offense SP+ Rating: 18.4 #121
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #72
Talent Rating: 594.00 #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Expected Record: 6.5 - 5.5

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.36 PPO
Good Run Success 49%
Awful Pass Success 31%
Bad OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 33%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.78 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 38%
Great Pass Def Success 28%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

San Diego State has lost 5 straight
San Diego State has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

San Diego State Notes
(8/1) OL 3/5 back, 4 portals, dont love OT on paper
(8/1) Def bad LY, 10 starters back, new DC Aurich
(8/1) Lewis also the OC, offense awful LY, team quit
(8/1) Fast offense, large totals. QB Emanuel key ?
(7/12) WR Kitt-Denton (FCS) avg'd 18.1 ypc at NW St
(5/23) New DC Aurich (DC @ Idaho) an improvement
(5/23) Portals look decent, losses mostly went down
(5/2) RB light, Washington (CCU) decent add.
(5/2) WR Napier back, v good. Some depth
(3/29) QB Dengal (Mich) vs Emanuel Jr (CMU)

San Diego State Highlights
San Diego State has a really good defense (#21)
San Diego State defense does not give up big plays (#10)
San Diego State has a good pass defense (#14)
San Diego State has a great TO Margin (#1)
San Diego State commits very few Penalties (#30)
San Diego State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#)

San Diego State Deficiencies
San Diego State Can Not Run the Ball (#121)
San Diego State pass game is really bad (#126)
San Diego State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
San Diego State does not Sack the QB (#112)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatFRESSDSU
OverallOver#64#39
OffenseOff#30#61
DefenseDef#105#26
Special TeamsST#26#62
PassingPass#58#60
RushingRush#11#52
Run BlockRBLK#34#46
Pass BlockPBLK#24#90
Route RunningWR Rt#54#56
TacklingTkl#71#40
Run DefenseR Def#99#27
Pass Rush DefPRush#98#42
Coverage DefCov#109#40

Previous Matchups
San Diego State beat Fresno State in 2023 (33-18)
Fresno State beat San Diego State in 2022 (32-28)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: SDSU | FRES
Depth Chart: SDSU | FRES
Rosters: SDSU | FRES
(#109) Fresno State Info
Power Rating: -3.56 #109
Offense Rating: 7.37 #92
Defense Rating: 19.19 #115
Overall SP+ Rating: -0.3 #73
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #69
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75
Talent Rating: 684.00 #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Expected Record: 7.4 - 4.6

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.58 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Avg Pass Success 47%
Avg OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 50%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.75 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Awful Pass Def Success 53%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Fresno State has lost 3 straight
Fresno State has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (2 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Fresno State Notes
(9/1) OG C McHarg out for season (Sr, Starter)
(8/1) Def OK LY, lost a ton. 10 portals, 4 DL help
(8/1) OL returns 3/5, meh LY but 5 portal adds help
(8/1) OC Davis = slow ground combo spread & RPO
(8/1) Pass D good LY & DBs good, A Hamilton big keep
(8/1) QB1 Warner out spring, Conklin (Sac St) added
(6/8) RB Donelson 33/263/8ypc last 3, came on late
(6/3) DE Foreman good, CB Hamilton is a great one
(5/23) DC Benedetto was great at NIU past 3 years
(5/12) Fresno will be physical, biggest spring takeaway

Fresno State Highlights
Fresno State is Undefeated at Home
Fresno State is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

Fresno State has Really Good Running Game (#5)
Fresno State offense is explosive (#18)
Fresno State offense is good on 3rd downs
Fresno State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Fresno State Deficiencies
Fresno State has a bad TO Margin (#131)
Fresno State Fumbles a Lot (#113)
Fresno State throws a Lot of Interceptions (#129)
Fresno State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#100)
Fresno State has a bad defense (#125)
Fresno State has a bad defensive line (#120)
Fresno State has a bad red zone defense (#115)


  
San Diego State's OC Sean Lewis
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jayden Denegal (Tr)285551%340206.2
Bert Emanuel Jr. (Tr)3475%29007.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lucky Sutton3818824.920
Christian Washington (Tr)104914.927
Byron Cardwell72804.014
Bert Emanuel Jr. (Tr)62604.310
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jacob Bostick (Tr)6101216.835
Jordan Napier108708.723
Mikey Welsh144044.044
Donovan Brown54308.644

View San Diego State's Full Roster
San Diego State's DC Rob Aurich
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tano Letuli190020
Owen Chambliss152111
Chris Johnson90022
Bryce Phillips80000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
August Salvati (Tr)32200
Owen Chambliss152111
Jared Badie11110
Tano Letuli190020
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dalesean Staley61003
Chris Johnson90022
Owen Chambliss152111

Fresno State's OC Josh Davis
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
E.J. Warner (Tr)719872%716457.3
Carson Conklin (Tr)5683%42007.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Donelson5032526.557
Rayshon Luke (Tr)3622456.244
Elijah Gilliam1710125.925
Johnathan Arceneaux105415.412
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josiah Freeman11149013.530
Ezekiel Avit (Tr)1311008.517
Bryson Donelson887010.939
Rayshon Luke (Tr)128016.720

View Fresno State's Full Roster
Fresno State's DC Nick Benedetto
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jadon Pearson (Tr)341001
Camryn Bracha182000
Finn Claypool (Tr)162211
Alzillion Hamilton150001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Finn Claypool (Tr)162211
Korey Foreman93200
Jayden Davis152120
Jahzon Jacks52120
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jakari Embry60003
K'Vion Thunderbird (Tr)141013
Simeon Harris (Tr)122002