Memphis at NC State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Memphis logo Memphis Tigers vs NC State WolfpackNC State logo
Friday, December 19th 2025 (2:30 PM EST)
NC State -6.0 (56.5) (-225)  Open: -5.5 | 58.5
NC State 31 - Memphis: 7  (Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl)

 
Tigers (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Ryan Silverfield (41 - 21)
Avg Score : 33 - 23 (35 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#38)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Memphis -4  (SP+ MEM -6.5)

Projected Score: MEM: 30 - NCST: 26 (57)
NCST Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
MEM Travel: 635 miles, 1 hrs behind
Wolfpack (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (87 - 64)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (35 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#64)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Memphis's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Memphis vs Chattanooga-30.555.5W 45 - 10UY
Sat 9/6 Memphis at Georgia State-14.557.5W 38 - 16UY
Sat 9/13 Memphis at Troy-4.551.5W 28 - 7UY
Sat 9/20 Memphis vs Arkansas+7.059.5W 32 - 31OY
Sat 9/27 Memphis at Florida Atlantic-14.062.5W 55 - 26OY
Sat 10/4 Memphis vs Tulsa-21.054.5W 45 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Memphis at UAB-23.559.5L 24 - 31UN
Sat 10/25 Memphis vs South Florida+3.558.5W 34 - 31OY
Fri 10/31 Memphis at Rice-13.548.5W 38 - 14OY
Fri 11/7 Memphis vs Tulane-3.053.5L 32 - 38ON
Sat 11/15 Memphis at East Carolina+3.056.5L 27 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/27 Memphis vs Navy-3.557.5L 17 - 28UN
Fri 12/19 Memphis vs NC State+6.056.5L 7 - 31UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Memphis's Schedule
NC State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 NC State vs East Carolina-12.558.5W 24 - 17UN
Sat 9/6 NC State vs Virginia-3.053.0W 35 - 31OY
Thu 9/11 NC State at Wake Forest-7.552.5W 34 - 24OY
Sat 9/20 NC State at Duke+3.057.5L 33 - 45ON
Sat 9/27 NC State vs Virginia Tech-10.057.5L 21 - 23UN
Sat 10/4 NC State vs Campbell-42.561.5W 56 - 10OY
Sat 10/11 NC State at Notre Dame+23.559.5L 7 - 36UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 NC State at Pittsburgh+5.552.5L 34 - 53ON
Sat 11/1 NC State vs Georgia Tech+4.558.5W 48 - 36OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 NC State at Miami+16.554.5L 7 - 41UN
Fri 11/21 NC State vs Florida State+7.058.5W 21 - 11UY
Sat 11/29 NC State vs North Carolina-7.048.5W 42 - 19OY
Fri 12/19 NC State vs Memphis-6.056.5W 31 - 7UY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for NC State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MEM#25 (.26)45% (40)32.549% (16)3.33 (12)18342% (69)2284.41 (23)#91 (.19)42% (65)23.239% (32)45% (108)4 (100)48.10.91.5
NCST#20 (.28)44% (52)30.244% (64)2.94 (68)14744% (43)2464.69 (10)#102 (.21)39% (41)27.238% (22)40% (55)3.7 (73)53.811.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MEM#23 (.27)44% (57)46% (40)3.27 (31)17541% (71)2704.66 (14)#87 (.19)40% (47)40% (45)40% (62)4.05 (96)480.61.9
NCST#26 (.25)45% (36)44% (68)3.24 (36)13047% (20)2153.97 (61)#86 (.19)41% (59)39% (31)43% (87)3.78 (67)451.71.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MEM Offense1332.53545%4.410.9234121832285.148%50%49%42%14%.26
NCST Defense1327.22139.3%3.71.2 - - - - - 43%56%38%40%15%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MEM Defense1323.220.841.6%41.5 - - - - - 50%49%39%45%17%.19
NCST Offense1330.235.343.8%4.691203931472464.547%51%44%44%16%.28

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Memphis1331:4222.742%56%5.548.10.91.561.6329.4
NC State1329:4720.441%50%5.553.811.25.11.5127.9
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MEM Offense1348% (78)49% (16)36.2183.25.134 (1).3 (6)3.33 (12)75% (49)10% (98)1.17 (7)
NCST Defense1343% (4)38% (22) - - - - .12 (78)2.87 (64)65% (26)8% (108)1.09 (122)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MEM Defense1350% (74)39% (32) - - - - .04 (34)2.58 (14)73% (85)11% (30)0.99 (87)
NCST Offense1347% (86)44% (64)32.5147.14.527 (40).19 (32)2.94 (68)73% (63)10% (98)1.1 (19)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MEM Offense1350% (60)42% (69)21.431.7228.47.210.717 (86)9 (88).23 (78)1.5 (94)32% (83)32% (43).34 (55)4% (12)2.1 (43)
NCST Defense1356% (132)40% (55) - - - - - - 9 (75).3 (91)1.7 (118)35% (21)31% (90).38 (112)7% (46)2.1 (83)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MEM Defense1349% (71)45% (108) - - - - - - 12 (6).37 (116)1.6 (105)32% (61)30% (79).37 (106)6% (49)2.1 (110)
NCST Offense1351% (49)44% (43)21.531.8245.77.711.426 (33)10 (119).39 (25)1.6 (31)31% (67)32% (48).4 (34)6% (54)2.1 (53)

Memphis's Power Ratings
Memphis's Power Rating: 8.62  #45
Memphis's Offense Rating: 17.81  #24
Memphis's Defense Rating: 9.19  #74
2025 Talent Rating: 776.00  #60
Blue Chip Ratio: 6%  #49
Memphis's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 4.4
Memphis's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.5  #34
Memphis's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.5  #16
Memphis's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5  #72

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Memphis: 8.62   NC State: 4.89

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Memphis: 9.5   NC State: 2.9




NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 4.89  #51
NC State's Offense Rating: 16.98  #28
NC State's Defense Rating: 10.10  #80
2025 Talent Rating: 838.00  #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 10  #39
NC State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.4 - 5.6
NC State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.9  #61
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4  #47
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.8  #73

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Memphis Scoring
Offense: 32.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 35
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.8

Memphis's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Memphis 30
NC State 26


Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
NC State 29
Memphis 27

Total Points: 57

Based on Entire Season
Memphis 29
NC State 28

Total Points: 57
NC State Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.3
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

NC State's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202512/19NC State31Memphis7NC State -6.0NC State56.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
NC State110 Overs
Memphis001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

Memphis Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Gasparilla Bowl Memphis vs NC State+6.056.5L 7 - 31
2024Frisco Bowl Memphis vs West Virginia-5.060.0W 42 - 37
2023Liberty Bowl Memphis vs Iowa State+10.558.0W 36 - 26
2022Responder Bowl Memphis vs Utah State-8.057.0W 38 - 10
2020Montgomery Bowl Memphis vs Florida Atlantic-9.052.5W 25 - 10
2019Cotton Bowl Memphis vs Penn State+7.059.5L 39 - 53
NC State Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Gasparilla Bowl NC State vs Memphis-6.056.5W 31 - 7
2024Go Bowl NC State vs East Carolina-7.561.5L 21 - 26
2023Tarts Bowl NC State vs Kansas State+3.048.5L 19 - 28
2022Mayo Bowl NC State vs Maryland-2.545.0L 12 - 16
2020Gator Bowl NC State vs Kentucky+3.050.5L 21 - 23
  
(#45) MEM at (#51) NCST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMEMNCST
Power RatePwr #45 #51
SP+SP+ #34 #61
Perf GradeGrade #39 #73
OffenseOff #39 #51
DefenseDef #55 #90
Spec TeamsST #62 #78
TalentTal #60 #43
Blue ChipsBC% #49 #39
Memphis Notes
(12/18) Hired OC Kevin Decker (ODU's OC)
(12/11) Hired HC Charles Huff (So Miss/Marshall).
(11/28) 3 game losing streak to finish. Silverfield a poor job
(11/16) 2 L's when CFP was in sights. Finish vs Navy
(10/25) QB Brendon Lewis will play vs S. Florida
(10/19) Def torched by UAB, Off sputtered w/o QB Lewis
(10/10) Def much better than anticipated, 2nd in AAC in YPP
(9/24) Off run game mauled Arkansas, QB Lewis a runner
(9/19) Run heavy Off so far, took care of cupcakes
(8/13) Real $$, biggest NIL spender in the G5
(8/13) QB Lewis a weapon (Nev), wins QB1 job in fall
(6/17) 4* QB AJ Hill was the only blue chip QB to G5
Memphis Injury Report
NC State Notes
(11/21) Fr QB W Wilson got designed runs in FSU game
(11/5) RB Jayden Scott (Fr) huge vs GT. Name to watch
(10/12) Def really beat up & can't compete. Off regressing
(10/9) DB injury issues, nickel down to 5th option (ND wk)
(9/30) Run Def mauled by VT? Run Off awful, horrific loss
(9/30) Things could go south in a hurry for this program
(9/20) Def horrible, torched by Duke. Bailey TOs killed
(9/11) Run Off good vs Wake, Def bad but rallied
(9/11) CJ Bailey is a weapon, holds ball long at times
(9/11) Tackling is an issue, Def very inconsistent
(8/29) Run Def great vs ECU, run off a big concern
(7/28) Off only 5 portals, 3 OL & 2 TE, good sign?
NC State Injury Report
Memphis on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
MEM OffNCST Def
Perf GradePerf #39 #90
SuccessSuc #40 #41
ExplosiveExp #32 #134
PPAPPA #25 #102
PowerPwr #24 #80
SP+SP+ #16 #73
Pts POPPO #23 #73
HavocHav #51 #84
Memphis Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
MEM OffNCST Def
Run GameRun #29 #61
Run SuccessRSuc #16 #22
Run ExplRExp #7 #122
PPAExp #6 #78
Run BlockR Blk #23 -
OL YdsOLY #12 #64
Stuff RateStuff #75 #65
TackleTak -  #56
Memphis Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
MEM OffNCST Def
Pass GamePass #50 #97
Pass SuccessPSuc #69 #55
Pass ExplPExl #94 #118
PPAExp #78 #91
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #32 #68
F7 HavocF7 #98 #108
DB HavocDB #12 #46
NC State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatNCST OffMEM Def
Perf GradePerf #51 #55
SuccessSuc #52 #65
ExplosiveExp #12 #108
PPAPPA #20 #91
PowerPwr #28 #74
SP+SP+ #47 #72
Pts POPPO #10 #100
HavocHav #73 #34
NC State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
NCST OffMEM Def
Run GameRun #57 #19
Run SuccessRSuc #64 #32
Run ExplRExp #19 #87
PPAExp #32 #34
Run BlockR Blk #67 -
OL YdsOLY #68 #14
Stuff RateStuff #112 #32
TackleTak -  #94
NC State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatNCST OffMEM Def
Pass GamePass #79 #110
Pass SuccessPSuc #43 #108
Pass ExplPExl #31 #105
PPAExp #25 #116
Pass Block/RushP Blk #56 #124
F7 HavocF7 #98 #30
DB HavocDB #54 #49
Program Comparison
NCST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

MEM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Raymond James Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 73° - Wind: 8 mph
Rematch from Week 1
NC State -6.0 (56.5)
NC State won vs Memphis this year (31-7)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
MEM's OC Tim Cramsey (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brendon Lewis (Tr)25336869%26731677.3
AJ Hill193259%223117.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Sutton Smith10266976.684
Brendon Lewis (Tr)15266494.427
Gregory DeRosiers9956375.790
Frank Peasant (Tr)6227574.419
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cortez Braham63889814.173
Jamari Hawkins38623216.457
Marcello Bussey27287010.640
Brady Kluse22240210.925

View Memphis's Full Roster

MEM's DC Jordon Hankins (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sam Brumfield (Tr)9011520
Kamari Wilson (Tr)787114
Chris Bracy (Tr)717019
Drue Watts (Tr)69114102
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sam Brumfield (Tr)9011520
Drue Watts (Tr)69114102
Everett Roussaw Jr. (Tr)587314
William Whitlow Jr.316325
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Bracy (Tr)717019
Jeremiah Jordan192106
Omarion Cooper (Tr)391006

NCST's OC Kurt Roper (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
CJ Bailey27339769%31052597.8
Lex Thomas2729%18002.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Daylan Smothers16093965.965
Jayden Scott10659545.669
CJ Bailey8921562.430
Will Wilson43146103.416
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Terrell Anderson39629516.175
Justin Joly49489710.059
Wesley Grimes31458314.848
Noah Rogers31413213.348

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC D. J. Eliot (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caden Fordham14310443
Kenny Soares Jr. (Tr)804162
Asaad Brown Jr.640002
Cian Slone (Tr)6272161
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tra Thomas (Tr)246450
Caden Fordham14310443
Travali Price225441
Sabastian Harsh (Tr)4183133
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devon Marshall5000115
Jackson Vick452006
Brian Nelson II (Tr)291006