NC State at Kansas State - 2023 Matchup Preview

NC State Wolfpack vs Kansas State Wildcats

Thursday, December 28th 2023 (5:45 PM EST)
Kansas State -3.0 (48.5) (-170) Open: -4.0 | 48.0
Kansas State 28 - NC State: 19 (Pop-Tarts Bowl)

Wolfpack (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (74 - 55)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (23 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#51)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Kansas State -6 (SP+ KSU -6)
Projected Score: NCST: 24 - KSU: 30 (53)
KSU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
NCST Travel: 526 miles

Wildcats (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Chris Klieman (32 - 21)
Avg Score : 29 - 27 (30 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 3.8 (#22)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
NCST Players
KSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

NC State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	NC State at UConn	-14.5	47.5	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/9	NC State vs Notre Dame	+7.0	49.5	L 24 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/16	NC State vs VMI	-42.5	51.0	W 45 - 7	O	N
Fri 9/22	NC State at Virginia	-8.5	47.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Fri 9/29	NC State vs Louisville	+3.5	56.5	L 10 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/7	NC State vs Marshall	-6.5	44.0	W 48 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/14	NC State at Duke	+3.5	44.0	L 3 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	NC State vs Clemson	+9.5	44.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/4	NC State vs Miami	+6.5	44.0	W 20 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/11	NC State at Wake Forest	+0.5	42.5	W 26 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/18	NC State at Virginia Tech	+2.5	40.5	W 35 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/25	NC State vs North Carolina	+2.0	55.0	W 39 - 20	O	Y
Thu 12/28	NC State vs Kansas State	+3.0	48.5	L 19 - 28	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for NC State's Schedule

Kansas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Kansas State vs Southeast Missouri State	-28.5	56.5	W 45 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Kansas State vs Troy	-15.0	50.0	W 42 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Kansas State at Missouri	-3.5	48.0	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/23	Kansas State vs UCF	-6.0	53.5	W 44 - 31	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/6	Kansas State at Oklahoma State	-11.5	53.5	L 21 - 29	U	N
Sat 10/14	Kansas State at Texas Tech	+1.0	57.0	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Kansas State vs TCU	-5.5	60.0	W 41 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Kansas State vs Houston	-17.5	61.0	W 41 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Kansas State at Texas	+4.0	49.5	L 30 - 33	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Kansas State vs Baylor	-20.5	55.5	W 59 - 25	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Kansas State at Kansas	-7.0	60.5	W 31 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/25	Kansas State vs Iowa State	-9.5	46.0	L 35 - 42	O	N
Thu 12/28	Kansas State vs NC State	-3.0	48.5	W 28 - 19	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NCST	.13	39%	30.2	40%	2.81	114	38%	226	3.52	.1	35%	27.2	33%	37%	3.39	57.8	1.2	1.7
KSU	.25	43%	29.4	44%	3.19	208	42%	211	4.18	.14	39%	26.7	42%	38%	3.58	42.9	0.9	2.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NCST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
KSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NCST Offense	13	30.2	23	38.8%	3.52	1.2	20	340	114	226	3.4	44%	55%	40%	38%	16%	.13
KSU Defense	14	26.7	27.3	39.3%	3.58	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	42%	38%	15%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NCST Defense	13	27.2	39.8	35.1%	3.39	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	42%	57%	33%	37%	19%	.1
KSU Offense	14	29.4	29.7	43%	4.18	0.9	20	419	208	211	5.1	57%	43%	44%	42%	12%	.25

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
NC State	13	31:23	20.4	36%	40%	7.3	57.8	1.2	1.7	6.5	2.2	2	31.6
Kansas State	14	31:43	20.1	39%	59%	5.3	42.9	0.9	2.1	4.9	2.1	3	31.3

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NCST Offense	13	44%	40%	34	113.8	3.4	8	.02	2.81	71%	10%	0.82
KSU Defense	14	48%	42%	-	-	-	-	.14	3.21	60%	9%	0.95

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NCST Defense	13	42%	33%	-	-	-	-	.01	2.51	53%	11%	1.04
KSU Offense	14	57%	44%	40.6	208.3	5.1	32	.21	3.19	66%	8%	1.1

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NCST Offense	13	55%	38%	20.7	36.2	226.1	6.2	10.9	23	8	.25	1.5	35%	27%	.32	6%	2.1
KSU Defense	14	50%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	16	.23	1.7	32%	27%	.15	6%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NCST Defense	13	57%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	19	.2	1.6	38%	30%	.36	8%	2
KSU Offense	14	43%	42%	17.3	27.7	210.5	7.6	12.2	21	6	.29	1.7	30%	34%	.51	4%	2.2

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 5.66 #34
NC State's Offense Rating: 14.92 #83
NC State's Defense Rating: 3.52 #17
2023 Talent Rating: 700.85 #38
Blue Chip Ratio: 18% #34
NC State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60
NC State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.4 #30
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #69
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.9 #16

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: 5.66 Kansas State: 13.39

SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 9.4 Kansas State: 15.4

Kansas State's Power Ratings
Kansas State's Power Rating: 13.39 #16
Kansas State's Offense Rating: 23.70 #16
Kansas State's Defense Rating: 4.11 #22
2023 Talent Rating: 616.00 #68
Blue Chip Ratio: 5 #61
Kansas State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80
Kansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.4 #15
Kansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.3 #8
Kansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #39

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

NC State Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.8

NC State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Kansas State 30
NC State 24

Projected Total Points: 53

Kansas State Scoring
Offense: 29.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.7
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.3

Kansas State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	12/28	Kansas State	28	NC State	19	Kansas State -3.0	Kansas State	48.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Kansas State	1	1	0 Overs
NC State	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

NC State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Tarts Bowl	NC State vs Kansas State	+3.0	48.5	L 19 - 28
2022	Mayo Bowl	NC State vs Maryland	-2.5	45.0	L 12 - 16
2020	Gator Bowl	NC State vs Kentucky	+3.0	50.5	L 21 - 23
2018	N/A	NC State vs Texas A&M	+7.5	58.5	L 13 - 52
2017	N/A	NC State vs Arizona State	-5.0	62.5	W 52 - 31

Kansas State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Tarts Bowl	Kansas State vs NC State	-3.0	48.5	W 28 - 19
2022	Sugar Bowl	Kansas State vs Alabama	+8.0	58.5	L 20 - 45
2021	Texas Bowl	Kansas State vs LSU	-9.5	47.0	W 42 - 20
2019	N/A	Kansas State vs Navy	+2.0	53.5	L 17 - 20
2017	Cactus Bowl	Kansas State vs UCLA	-6.5	59.0	W 35 - 17

(#34) NCST at (#16) KSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NCST	KSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#34	#16
SP+SP+	#30	#15
Perf GradeGrade	#81	#32
OffenseOff	#110	#23
DefenseDef	#44	#68
Spec TeamsST	#57	#69
TalentTal	#38	#68
Blue ChipsBC%	#34	#61

NC State Injury Report

Kansas State Injury Report

NC State on Offense


CategoryCat	NCST Off	KSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#110	#68
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#83	#22
SP+SP+	#69	#39
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

NC State Run Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	KSU Def
Run GameRun	#93	#95
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#91	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#123

NC State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	KSU Def
Pass GamePass	#78	#42
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#72	#114
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Kansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	KSU Off	NCST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#23	#44
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#16	#17
SP+SP+	#8	#16
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Kansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	KSU Off	NCST Def
Run GameRun	#15	#14
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#20	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#10

Kansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	KSU Off	NCST Def
Pass GamePass	#61	#93
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#37	#96
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
KSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'23 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

NCST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Camping World Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Kansas State -3.0 (48.5)
Kansas State won vs NC State this year (28-19)

Previous Matchups
Kansas State beat NC State in 2023 (28-19)

NCST's OC Robert Anae (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brennan Armstrong (Tr)	160	262	61%	1783	11	7	6.8
MJ Morris	63	113	56%	719	7	5	6.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brennan Armstrong (Tr)	143	665	7	4.7	43
Kevin Concepcion	41	320	0	7.8	65
Kendrick Raphael	67	311	1	4.6	31
Delbert Mimms III	96	282	8	2.9	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kevin Concepcion	71	839	10	11.8	72
Keyon Lesane	28	247	0	8.8	38
Dacari Collins (Tr)	14	210	2	15.0	38
Brad Rozner	18	208	2	11.6	21

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC Tony Gibson (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Jaylon Scott	75	6	2	10	3
Sean Brown	66	5	2	4	5
Devan Boykin	54	3	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davin Vann	43	8	7	11	1
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Red Hibbler	12	6	6	3	1
Brandon Cleveland	28	5	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aydan White	37	2	1	0	10
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Sean Brown	66	5	2	4	5

KSU's OC Collin Klein (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Will Howard	219	358	61%	2643	24	10	7.4
Avery Johnson	37	66	56%	479	5	0	7.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
DJ Giddens	223	1226	10	5.5	43
Treshaun Ward (Tr)	125	651	5	5.2	52
Will Howard	80	364	9	4.6	70
Avery Johnson	51	288	7	5.6	30

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ben Sinnott	49	676	6	13.8	44
Phillip Brooks III	53	589	5	11.1	40
Jayce Brown	27	437	3	16.2	46
DJ Giddens	29	323	3	11.1	61

View Kansas State's Full Roster

KSU's DC Joe Klanderman (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marques Sigle (Tr)	63	3	0	1	9
Austin Moore	63	13	2	1	0
Kobe Savage	57	4	0	2	0
VJ Payne	57	3	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Khalid Duke	19	8	6	2	0
Nate Matlack	15	8	4	2	1
Jevon Banks (Tr)	9	2	2	1	0
Cody Stufflebean	19	3	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marques Sigle (Tr)	63	3	0	1	9
Jacob Parrish	44	3	1	0	9
Will Lee III	42	2	0	0	6