Memphis at Troy - 2025 Matchup Preview
Memphis logo Memphis Tigers at Troy TrojansTroy logo
Saturday, September 13th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Memphis -4.5 (51.5) (-192)  Open: 0.0
Memphis 28 - Troy: 7

 
Tigers (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Ryan Silverfield (41 - 21)
Avg Score : 33 - 23 (35 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#38)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 6)
MEM 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Memphis -11.5  (SP+ MEM -12.5)

Projected Score: MEM: 32 - TROY: 21 (53)
MEM Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
MEM Travel: 326 miles
Trojans (8 - 6) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Gerad Parker (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (25 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 5.4 (#38)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
Memphis's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Memphis vs Chattanooga-30.555.5W 45 - 10UY
Sat 9/6 Memphis at Georgia State-14.557.5W 38 - 16UY
Sat 9/13 Memphis at Troy-4.551.5W 28 - 7UY
Sat 9/20 Memphis vs Arkansas+7.059.5W 32 - 31OY
Sat 9/27 Memphis at Florida Atlantic-14.062.5W 55 - 26OY
Sat 10/4 Memphis vs Tulsa-21.054.5W 45 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Memphis at UAB-23.559.5L 24 - 31UN
Sat 10/25 Memphis vs South Florida+3.558.5W 34 - 31OY
Fri 10/31 Memphis at Rice-13.548.5W 38 - 14OY
Fri 11/7 Memphis vs Tulane-3.053.5L 32 - 38ON
Sat 11/15 Memphis at East Carolina+3.056.5L 27 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/27 Memphis vs Navy-3.557.5L 17 - 28UN
Fri 12/19 Memphis vs NC State+6.056.5L 7 - 31UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Memphis's Schedule
Troy's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Troy vs Nicholls-16.546.5W 38 - 20OY
Sat 9/6 Troy at Clemson+31.051.5L 16 - 27UY
Sat 9/13 Troy vs Memphis+4.551.5L 7 - 28UN
Sat 9/20 Troy at Buffalo+5.543.5W 21 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Troy vs South Alabama+2.546.5W 31 - 24OY
Sat 10/11 Troy at Texas State+7.553.5W 48 - 41OY
Sat 10/18 Troy at UL Monroe-4.545.5W 37 - 14OY
Sat 10/25 Troy vs Louisiana-7.047.5W 35 - 23OY
Sat 11/1 Troy vs Arkansas State-7.552.5L 10 - 23UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/13 Troy at Old Dominion+9.553.5L 0 - 33UN
Sat 11/22 Troy vs Georgia State-9.551.0W 31 - 19UY
Sat 11/29 Troy at Southern Miss+6.550.5W 28 - 18UY
Fri 12/5 Troy at James Madison+24.547.5L 14 - 31UY
Tue 12/16 Troy vs Jacksonville State+3.047.5L 13 - 17UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Troy's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MEM#25 (.26)45% (40)32.549% (16)3.33 (12)18342% (69)2284.41 (23)#91 (.19)42% (65)23.239% (32)45% (108)4 (100)48.10.91.5
TROY#111 (.1)38% (114)23.539% (113)2.82 (91)9838% (105)2093.67 (74)#54 (.12)40% (53)23.941% (60)39% (42)3.17 (31)52.11.31.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MEM#23 (.27)44% (57)46% (40)3.27 (31)17541% (71)2704.66 (14)#87 (.19)40% (47)40% (45)40% (62)4.05 (96)480.61.9
TROY#50 (.22)44% (49)42% (94)2.88 (95)15748% (15)2134.43 (22)#77 (.18)43% (87)45% (87)42% (76)3.77 (65)58.81.30.7



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MEM Offense1332.53545%4.410.9234121832285.148%50%49%42%14%.26
TROY Defense1423.922.840%3.171.3 - - - - - 54%44%41%39%16%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MEM Defense1323.220.841.6%41.5 - - - - - 50%49%39%45%17%.19
TROY Offense1423.525.338.2%3.671.317307982092.847%51%39%38%20%.1

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Memphis1331:4222.742%56%5.548.10.91.561.6329.4
Troy1429:5517.339%47%5.652.11.31.36.12.6331
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MEM Offense1348% (78)49% (16)36.2183.25.134 (1).3 (6)3.33 (12)75% (49)10% (98)1.17 (7)
TROY Defense1454% (115)41% (60) - - - - .1 (67)3.01 (96)66% (32)11% (39)0.95 (63)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MEM Defense1350% (74)39% (32) - - - - .04 (34)2.58 (14)73% (85)11% (30)0.99 (87)
TROY Offense1447% (85)39% (113)35.1982.817 (88).02 (117)2.82 (91)78% (26)12% (126)0.87 (114)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MEM Offense1350% (60)42% (69)21.431.7228.47.210.717 (86)9 (88).23 (78)1.5 (94)32% (83)32% (43).34 (55)4% (12)2.1 (43)
TROY Defense1444% (20)39% (42) - - - - - - 10 (75).17 (39)1.7 (120)34% (29)28% (43).23 (45)6% (76)2.1 (102)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MEM Defense1349% (71)45% (108) - - - - - - 12 (6).37 (116)1.6 (105)32% (61)30% (79).37 (106)6% (49)2.1 (110)
TROY Offense1451% (55)38% (105)17.930.9209.26.811.720 (42)12 (88).17 (110)1.7 (25)34% (114)28% (97).28 (77)7% (116)2.2 (23)

Memphis's Power Ratings
Memphis's Power Rating: 8.62  #45
Memphis's Offense Rating: 17.81  #24
Memphis's Defense Rating: 9.19  #74
2025 Talent Rating: 776.00  #60
Blue Chip Ratio: 6%  #49
Memphis's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 4.4
Memphis's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.5  #34
Memphis's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.5  #16
Memphis's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5  #72

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Memphis: 8.62   Troy: -2.515

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Memphis: 9.5   Troy: -3.2




Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: -2.515  #93
Troy's Offense Rating: 2.52  #111
Troy's Defense Rating: 9.35  #77
2025 Talent Rating: 584.00  #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Troy's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 5.4
Troy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2  #83
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4  #82
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.1  #81

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Memphis Scoring
Offense: 32.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 35
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.8

Memphis's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Memphis 32
Troy 21


Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Troy 29
Memphis 27

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
Memphis 28
Troy 23

Total Points: 51
Troy Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.3
Defense: 23.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.8

Troy's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 6
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Troy7Memphis28Memphis -4.5Memphis51.5Under
202409/07Memphis38Troy17Memphis -18.5Memphis57.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Troy000 Overs
Memphis222 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 11 - 11 - 00 - 1
Road Teams1 - 11 - 11 - 00 - 1

(#45) MEM at (#93) TROY
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMEMTROY
Power RatePwr #45 #93
SP+SP+ #34 #83
Perf GradeGrade #39 #98
OffenseOff #39 #96
DefenseDef #55 #81
Spec TeamsST #62 #67
TalentTal #60 #100
Blue ChipsBC% #49 #65
Memphis Notes
(12/18) Hired OC Kevin Decker (ODU's OC)
(12/11) Hired HC Charles Huff (So Miss/Marshall).
(11/28) 3 game losing streak to finish. Silverfield a poor job
(11/16) 2 L's when CFP was in sights. Finish vs Navy
(10/25) QB Brendon Lewis will play vs S. Florida
(10/19) Def torched by UAB, Off sputtered w/o QB Lewis
(10/10) Def much better than anticipated, 2nd in AAC in YPP
(9/24) Off run game mauled Arkansas, QB Lewis a runner
(9/19) Run heavy Off so far, took care of cupcakes
(8/13) Real $$, biggest NIL spender in the G5
(8/13) QB Lewis a weapon (Nev), wins QB1 job in fall
(6/17) 4* QB AJ Hill was the only blue chip QB to G5
Memphis Injury Report
Troy Notes
(11/29) Two bounce back wins to get to the SBC Title game
(11/29) Parker & staff incredible job in their 2nd season
(10/28) 3 wins so far w/ negative Success Rate
(10/11) Incredible comeback vs Tx St. 3 game win streak
(10/11) 3 straight wins as underdogs, real SBC threat?
(10/11) QB Kilcrease 415 yds, doubled season total vs Tx St
(9/23) DT Luis Medina huge game vs Buffalo
(9/20) Huge comeback W @ Buf, Def played great
(9/20) BU QB Kilcrease not good, QB3 Ale neither
(9/17) QB Crowder out multiple weeks (shoulder)
(8/30) QB Crowder meh, Run Off good vs Nicholls
(8/1) OL bad LY, 3/5 back, 5 portal adds. Looks Ok
Troy Injury Report
Memphis on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
MEM OffTROY Def
Perf GradePerf #39 #81
SuccessSuc #40 #53
ExplosiveExp #32 #86
PPAPPA #25 #54
PowerPwr #24 #77
SP+SP+ #16 #81
Pts POPPO #23 #31
HavocHav #51 #55
Memphis Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
MEM OffTROY Def
Run GameRun #29 #70
Run SuccessRSuc #16 #60
Run ExplRExp #7 #63
PPAExp #6 #67
Run BlockR Blk #23 -
OL YdsOLY #12 #96
Stuff RateStuff #75 #59
TackleTak -  #113
Memphis Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
MEM OffTROY Def
Pass GamePass #50 #70
Pass SuccessPSuc #69 #42
Pass ExplPExl #94 #120
PPAExp #78 #39
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #32 #75
F7 HavocF7 #98 #39
DB HavocDB #12 #76
Troy on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatTROY OffMEM Def
Perf GradePerf #96 #55
SuccessSuc #114 #65
ExplosiveExp #39 #108
PPAPPA #111 #91
PowerPwr #111 #74
SP+SP+ #82 #72
Pts POPPO #74 #100
HavocHav #128 #34
Troy Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TROY OffMEM Def
Run GameRun #129 #19
Run SuccessRSuc #113 #32
Run ExplRExp #114 #87
PPAExp #117 #34
Run BlockR Blk #108 -
OL YdsOLY #91 #14
Stuff RateStuff #126 #32
TackleTak -  #94
Troy Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatTROY OffMEM Def
Pass GamePass #76 #110
Pass SuccessPSuc #105 #108
Pass ExplPExl #25 #105
PPAExp #110 #116
Pass Block/RushP Blk #108 #124
F7 HavocF7 #126 #30
DB HavocDB #116 #49
Program Comparison
TROY 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

MEM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Veterans Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 81° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 3
Memphis 4.5 (51.5)
Memphis won at Troy this year (28-7)

Previous Matchups
Memphis beat Troy last year (38-17)

  
MEM's OC Tim Cramsey (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brendon Lewis (Tr)25336869%26731677.3
AJ Hill193259%223117.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Sutton Smith10266976.684
Brendon Lewis (Tr)15266494.427
Gregory DeRosiers9956375.790
Frank Peasant (Tr)6227574.419
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cortez Braham63889814.173
Jamari Hawkins38623216.457
Marcello Bussey27287010.640
Brady Kluse22240210.925

View Memphis's Full Roster

MEM's DC Jordon Hankins (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sam Brumfield (Tr)9011520
Kamari Wilson (Tr)787114
Chris Bracy (Tr)717019
Drue Watts (Tr)69114102
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sam Brumfield (Tr)9011520
Drue Watts (Tr)69114102
Everett Roussaw Jr. (Tr)587314
William Whitlow Jr.316325
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Bracy (Tr)717019
Jeremiah Jordan192106
Omarion Cooper (Tr)391006

TROY's OC Sean Reagan (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tucker Kilcrease13022259%1537966.9
Will Crowder11519659%13271156.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tae Meadows15969564.447
Jordan Lovett8933923.822
Tucker Kilcrease11612651.134
Jarris Williams195713.013
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Rara Thomas (Tr)39629516.175
Tray Taylor (Tr)31513316.560
DJ Epps46498510.848
Ethan Conner31397312.839

View Troy's Full Roster

TROY's DC Dontae Wright (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Stringer12312314
Devin Lafayette1133105
Justin Powe751001
Jaquez White6741111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Donnie Smith44141172
Jah-Mal Williams466543
Jamel Fils-Aime244310
Elijah Davis (Tr)446320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaquez White6741111
Devin Lafayette1133105
Kaleno Levine (Tr)454005