Virginia Tech at NC State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Virginia Tech logo Virginia Tech Hokies at NC State WolfpackNC State logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
NC State -10 (57.5) (-360)  Open: -7.5
Virginia Tech 23 - NC State: 21  (ACC)

 
Hokies (3 - 9) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Philip Montgomery (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 21 - 30 (16 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 4) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
NCST is playing their 5th straight game
VT is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: NC State -12  (SP+ NCST -13)

Projected Score: VT: 21 - NCST: 33 (53)
NCST Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
VT Travel: 136 miles
Wolfpack (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (87 - 64)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (35 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#64)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 4) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
 
Virginia Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31 Virginia Tech vs South Carolina+8.548.5L 11 - 24UN
Sat 9/6 Virginia Tech vs Vanderbilt-2.546.5L 20 - 44ON
Sat 9/13 Virginia Tech vs Old Dominion-5.550.5L 26 - 45ON
Sat 9/20 Virginia Tech vs Wofford-35.551.5W 38 - 6UN
Sat 9/27 Virginia Tech at NC State+10.057.5W 23 - 21UY
Sat 10/4 Virginia Tech vs Wake Forest-4.551.5L 23 - 30ON
Sat 10/11 Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech+14.055.5L 20 - 35UN
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/24 Virginia Tech vs California-6.550.5W 42 - 34OY
Sat 11/1 Virginia Tech vs Louisville+10.552.5L 16 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Virginia Tech at Florida State+13.553.5L 14 - 34UN
Sat 11/22 Virginia Tech vs Miami+18.549.0L 17 - 34OY
Sat 11/29 Virginia Tech at Virginia+9.553.5L 7 - 27UN

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Virginia Tech's Schedule
NC State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 NC State vs East Carolina-12.558.5W 24 - 17UN
Sat 9/6 NC State vs Virginia-3.053.0W 35 - 31OY
Thu 9/11 NC State at Wake Forest-7.552.5W 34 - 24OY
Sat 9/20 NC State at Duke+3.057.5L 33 - 45ON
Sat 9/27 NC State vs Virginia Tech-10.057.5L 21 - 23UN
Sat 10/4 NC State vs Campbell-42.561.5W 56 - 10OY
Sat 10/11 NC State at Notre Dame+23.559.5L 7 - 36UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 NC State at Pittsburgh+5.552.5L 34 - 53ON
Sat 11/1 NC State vs Georgia Tech+4.558.5W 48 - 36OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 NC State at Miami+16.554.5L 7 - 41UN
Fri 11/21 NC State vs Florida State+7.058.5W 21 - 11UY
Sat 11/29 NC State vs North Carolina-7.048.5W 42 - 19OY
Fri 12/19 NC State vs Memphis-6.056.5W 31 - 7UY

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for NC State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
VT#69 (.17)42% (81)21.448% (25)3.33 (13)18334% (131)1663.68 (72)#130 (.28)46% (123)30.245% (102)47% (123)4.34 (126)64.31.30.5
NCST#20 (.28)44% (52)30.244% (64)2.94 (68)14744% (43)2464.69 (10)#102 (.21)39% (41)27.238% (22)40% (55)3.7 (73)53.811.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
VT#75 (.18)42% (87)44% (66)3.01 (76)17339% (102)1784.22 (40)#18 (.09)39% (34)42% (56)36% (15)2.97 (7)46.31.21.8
NCST#26 (.25)45% (36)44% (68)3.24 (36)13047% (20)2153.97 (61)#86 (.19)41% (59)39% (31)43% (87)3.78 (67)451.71.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
VT Offense1221.41641.6%3.681.319350183166555%43%48%34%17%.17
NCST Defense1327.22139.3%3.71.2 - - - - - 43%56%38%40%15%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
VT Defense1230.229.345.6%4.340.5 - - - - - 52%46%45%47%13%.28
NCST Offense1330.235.343.8%4.691203931472464.547%51%44%44%16%.28

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Virginia Tech1229:1318.939%48%7.264.31.30.54.91.6026.8
NC State1329:4720.441%50%5.553.811.25.11.5127.9
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
VT Offense1255% (28)48% (25)36.9183.2513 (107).2 (31)3.33 (13)70% (81)10% (94)0.97 (64)
NCST Defense1343% (4)38% (22) - - - - .12 (78)2.87 (64)65% (26)8% (108)1.09 (122)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
VT Defense1252% (98)45% (102) - - - - .18 (112)3.01 (95)80% (122)9% (103)0.98 (77)
NCST Offense1347% (86)44% (64)32.5147.14.527 (40).19 (32)2.94 (68)73% (63)10% (98)1.1 (19)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
VT Offense1243% (110)34% (131)1526.6166.36.311.117 (61)9 (60).15 (113)1.7 (20)33% (95)26% (109).33 (60)7% (94)2.1 (36)
NCST Defense1356% (132)40% (55) - - - - - - 9 (75).3 (91)1.7 (118)35% (21)31% (90).38 (112)7% (46)2.1 (83)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
VT Defense1246% (40)47% (123) - - - - - - 4 (100).42 (129)1.5 (58)28% (119)34% (121).51 (135)5% (119)2.1 (100)
NCST Offense1351% (49)44% (43)21.531.8245.77.711.426 (33)10 (119).39 (25)1.6 (31)31% (67)32% (48).4 (34)6% (54)2.1 (53)

Virginia Tech's Power Ratings
Virginia Tech's Power Rating: 0.56  #69
Virginia Tech's Offense Rating: 12.15  #50
Virginia Tech's Defense Rating: 11.59  #90
2025 Talent Rating: 870.00  #33
Blue Chip Ratio: 5%  #54
Virginia Tech's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Virginia Tech's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.2  #106
Virginia Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.7  #108
Virginia Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #97

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Virginia Tech: 0.56   NC State: 7.39

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Virginia Tech: -10.2   NC State: 2.9




NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 7.39  #51
NC State's Offense Rating: 16.98  #28
NC State's Defense Rating: 10.10  #80
2025 Talent Rating: 838.00  #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 10  #39
NC State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.4 - 5.6
NC State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.9  #61
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4  #47
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.8  #73

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Virginia Tech Scoring
Offense: 21.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 16
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.3

Virginia Tech's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
NC State 33
Virginia Tech 21


Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
NC State 25
Virginia Tech 20

Total Points: 45

Based on Entire Season
NC State 31
Virginia Tech 21

Total Points: 52
NC State Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.3
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

NC State's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/27NC State21Virginia Tech23NC State -10Virginia Tech57.5Under
202311/18Virginia Tech28NC State35Virginia Tech -2.5NC State40.5Over
202210/27NC State22Virginia Tech21NC State -13Virginia Tech39.0Over
202009/26Virginia Tech45NC State24Virginia Tech -6.5Virginia Tech57.5Over
201510/09Virginia Tech28NC State13Virginia Tech -2Virginia Tech44.0Under
201010/02NC State30Virginia Tech41
200911/21Virginia Tech38NC State10
200509/04NC State16Virginia Tech20
200409/25Virginia Tech16NC State17
TeamWinsCoversO/U
NC State313 Overs
Virginia Tech642 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 52 - 32 - 30 - 0
Road Teams5 - 43 - 20 - 03 - 2

(#69) VT at (#51) NCST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatVTNCST
Power RatePwr #69 #51
SP+SP+ #106 #61
Perf GradeGrade #115 #73
OffenseOff #123 #51
DefenseDef #95 #90
Spec TeamsST #125 #78
TalentTal #33 #43
Blue ChipsBC% #54 #39
Virginia Tech Notes
(11/1) Playing hard, but Run def mauled by Louisville
(9/30) Ran all over NC St, 229 yds vs 59 allowed, huge W
(9/26) LB Michael Short opting out after Pry fired, redshirt
(9/14) HC Pry fired, OC Philip Montgomery interim
(9/14) Defense is atrocious, new DC Siefkes a disaster
(8/28) New DC Siefkes is a big upgrade for staff
(7/30) OL 0/5 back, lost 3 starters to portal. 6 OL adds
(7/30) OG Tomas Rimac (WVU) a top G via PFF
(7/28) Losing portals, added 31 in yr 4? Not much hope
(7/15) VT is 1-12 in 1 score games under Pry (0-5 LY)
(7/5) DL & LBs are ?, 2ndary built from 7 portal adds
(7/5) RB rebuild, 4 portals w/ Stewart/Bennett good
Virginia Tech Injury Report
NC State Notes
(11/21) Fr QB W Wilson got designed runs in FSU game
(11/5) RB Jayden Scott (Fr) huge vs GT. Name to watch
(10/12) Def really beat up & can't compete. Off regressing
(10/9) DB injury issues, nickel down to 5th option (ND wk)
(9/30) Run Def mauled by VT? Run Off awful, horrific loss
(9/30) Things could go south in a hurry for this program
(9/20) Def horrible, torched by Duke. Bailey TOs killed
(9/11) Run Off good vs Wake, Def bad but rallied
(9/11) CJ Bailey is a weapon, holds ball long at times
(9/11) Tackling is an issue, Def very inconsistent
(8/29) Run Def great vs ECU, run off a big concern
(7/28) Off only 5 portals, 3 OL & 2 TE, good sign?
NC State Injury Report
Virginia Tech on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
VT OffNCST Def
Perf GradePerf #123 #90
SuccessSuc #81 #41
ExplosiveExp #69 #134
PPAPPA #69 #102
PowerPwr #50 #80
SP+SP+ #108 #73
Pts POPPO #72 #73
HavocHav #95 #84
Virginia Tech Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
VT OffNCST Def
Run GameRun #44 #61
Run SuccessRSuc #25 #22
Run ExplRExp #64 #122
PPAExp #31 #78
Run BlockR Blk #115 -
OL YdsOLY #13 #64
Stuff RateStuff #19 #65
TackleTak -  #56
Virginia Tech Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
VT OffNCST Def
Pass GamePass #94 #97
Pass SuccessPSuc #131 #55
Pass ExplPExl #20 #118
PPAExp #113 #91
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #133 #68
F7 HavocF7 #94 #108
DB HavocDB #94 #46
NC State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatNCST OffVT Def
Perf GradePerf #51 #95
SuccessSuc #52 #123
ExplosiveExp #12 #67
PPAPPA #20 #130
PowerPwr #28 #90
SP+SP+ #47 #97
Pts POPPO #10 #126
HavocHav #73 #116
NC State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
NCST OffVT Def
Run GameRun #57 #41
Run SuccessRSuc #64 #102
Run ExplRExp #19 #77
PPAExp #32 #112
Run BlockR Blk #67 -
OL YdsOLY #68 #95
Stuff RateStuff #112 #109
TackleTak -  #107
NC State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatNCST OffVT Def
Pass GamePass #79 #126
Pass SuccessPSuc #43 #123
Pass ExplPExl #31 #58
PPAExp #25 #129
Pass Block/RushP Blk #56 #49
F7 HavocF7 #98 #103
DB HavocDB #54 #119
Program Comparison
NCST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

VT 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Carter-Finley Stadium
Conditions: Overcast
Temp: 75°
Rematch from Week 5
NC State -10.0 (57.5)
Virginia Tech won at NC State this year (23-21)

Previous Matchups
NC State beat Virginia Tech in 2023 (35-28)
NC State beat Virginia Tech in 2022 (22-21)

  
VT's OC Philip Montgomery (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kyron Drones17831557%19191796.1
William Watson III2450%770019.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Marcellous Hawkins (Tr)11874916.340
Kyron Drones17064493.833
Terion Stewart (Tr)8246905.785
Jeffrey Overton Jr.2514615.838
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ayden Greene31516316.667
Donavon Greene (Tr)16267216.737
Takye Heath2220039.144
Isaiah Spencer (Tr)14194013.938

View Virginia Tech's Full Roster

VT's DC Sam Siefkes (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Spencer679101
Caleb Woodson573011
Jaden Keller503101
Kemari Copeland488510
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kemari Copeland488510
Ben Bell (Tr)406360
Elhadj Fall (Tr)254320
Kelvin Gilliam343241
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Thomas Williams321006
Isaiah Brown-Murray (Tr)392005
Christian Ellis (Tr)71003

NCST's OC Kurt Roper (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
CJ Bailey27339769%31052597.8
Lex Thomas2729%18002.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Daylan Smothers16093965.965
Jayden Scott10659545.669
CJ Bailey8921562.430
Will Wilson43146103.416
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Terrell Anderson39629516.175
Justin Joly49489710.059
Wesley Grimes31458314.848
Noah Rogers31413213.348

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC D. J. Eliot (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caden Fordham14310443
Kenny Soares Jr. (Tr)804162
Asaad Brown Jr.640002
Cian Slone (Tr)6272161
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tra Thomas (Tr)246450
Caden Fordham14310443
Travali Price225441
Sabastian Harsh (Tr)4183133
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devon Marshall5000115
Jackson Vick452006
Brian Nelson II (Tr)291006