Florida State at NC State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Florida State logo Florida State Seminoles at NC State WolfpackNC State logo
Friday, November 21st 2025 (8:00 PM EST)
Florida State -7 (58.5) (-250)  Open: -2.5
NC State 21 - Florida State: 11  (ACC)

 
Seminoles (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (33 - 27)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (19 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
FSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Florida State -0.5  (SP+ FSU -4.5)

Projected Score: FSU: 29 - NCST: 28 (57)
FSU Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
FSU Travel: 491 miles
Wolfpack (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (87 - 64)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (35 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#64)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Florida State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Florida State vs Alabama+13.550.5W 31 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Florida State vs East Texas A&M-43.556.5W 77 - 3OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Florida State vs Kent State-44.556.5W 66 - 10OY
Fri 9/26 Florida State at Virginia-7.059.5L 38 - 46ON
Sat 10/4 Florida State vs Miami+3.554.5L 22 - 28UN
Sat 10/11 Florida State vs Pittsburgh-10.556.5L 31 - 34ON
Sat 10/18 Florida State at Stanford-17.555.5L 13 - 20UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Florida State vs Wake Forest-12.550.5W 42 - 7UY
Sat 11/8 Florida State at Clemson+1.556.5L 10 - 24UN
Sat 11/15 Florida State vs Virginia Tech-13.553.5W 34 - 14UY
Fri 11/21 Florida State at NC State-7.058.5L 11 - 21UN
Sat 11/29 Florida State at Florida-1.548.5L 21 - 40ON

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule
NC State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 NC State vs East Carolina-12.558.5W 24 - 17UN
Sat 9/6 NC State vs Virginia-3.053.0W 35 - 31OY
Thu 9/11 NC State at Wake Forest-7.552.5W 34 - 24OY
Sat 9/20 NC State at Duke+3.057.5L 33 - 45ON
Sat 9/27 NC State vs Virginia Tech-10.057.5L 21 - 23UN
Sat 10/4 NC State vs Campbell-42.561.5W 56 - 10OY
Sat 10/11 NC State at Notre Dame+23.559.5L 7 - 36UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 NC State at Pittsburgh+5.552.5L 34 - 53ON
Sat 11/1 NC State vs Georgia Tech+4.558.5W 48 - 36OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 NC State at Miami+16.554.5L 7 - 41UN
Fri 11/21 NC State vs Florida State+7.058.5W 21 - 11UY
Sat 11/29 NC State vs North Carolina-7.048.5W 42 - 19OY
Fri 12/19 NC State vs Memphis-6.056.5W 31 - 7UY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for NC State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU#21 (.27)46% (31)3350% (12)3.4 (8)21941% (81)2533.95 (46)#69 (.16)42% (76)2242% (65)43% (80)4.12 (110)45.31.61.2
NCST#20 (.28)44% (52)30.244% (64)2.94 (68)14744% (43)2464.69 (10)#102 (.21)39% (41)27.238% (22)40% (55)3.7 (73)53.811.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU#125 (.06)35% (128)40% (103)2.9 (92)9131% (130)1802.88 (131)#112 (.25)41% (56)42% (62)39% (52)3.62 (46)47.91.80.5
NCST#26 (.25)45% (36)44% (68)3.24 (36)13047% (20)2153.97 (61)#86 (.19)41% (59)39% (31)43% (87)3.78 (67)451.71.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Offense123318.645.9%3.951.6244722192535.255%44%50%41%15%.27
NCST Defense1327.22139.3%3.71.2 - - - - - 43%56%38%40%15%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Defense122230.242.1%4.121.2 - - - - - 55%44%42%43%16%.16
NCST Offense1330.235.343.8%4.691203931472464.547%51%44%44%16%.28

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida State1228:4524.151%57%5.445.31.61.26.12.6029
NC State1329:4720.441%50%5.553.811.25.11.5127.9
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Offense1255% (33)50% (12)42.1218.85.231 (4).25 (14)3.4 (8)75% (49)9% (59)1.03 (44)
NCST Defense1343% (4)38% (22) - - - - .12 (78)2.87 (64)65% (26)8% (108)1.09 (122)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Defense1255% (123)42% (65) - - - - .11 (74)3.12 (106)76% (105)11% (30)0.86 (19)
NCST Offense1347% (86)44% (64)32.5147.14.527 (40).19 (32)2.94 (68)73% (63)10% (98)1.1 (19)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Offense1244% (104)41% (81)16.728.3253.4915.220 (33)9 (60).32 (46)1.9 (5)31% (70)38% (11).5 (12)6% (50)2.1 (30)
NCST Defense1356% (132)40% (55) - - - - - - 9 (75).3 (91)1.7 (118)35% (21)31% (90).38 (112)7% (46)2.1 (83)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Defense1244% (16)43% (80) - - - - - - 12 (12).25 (69)1.5 (59)30% (102)30% (78).34 (92)5% (122)2 (71)
NCST Offense1351% (49)44% (43)21.531.8245.77.711.426 (33)10 (119).39 (25)1.6 (31)31% (67)32% (48).4 (34)6% (54)2.1 (53)

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 8.52  #47
Florida State's Offense Rating: 16.89  #31
Florida State's Defense Rating: 8.37  #71
2025 Talent Rating: 938.00  #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 45%  #17
Florida State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Florida State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.4  #43
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.8  #54
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1  #38

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 8.52   NC State: 7.39

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 7.4   NC State: 2.9




NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 7.39  #51
NC State's Offense Rating: 16.98  #28
NC State's Defense Rating: 10.10  #80
2025 Talent Rating: 838.00  #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 10  #39
NC State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.4 - 5.6
NC State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.9  #61
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4  #47
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.8  #73

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Florida State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.6
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Florida State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Florida State 29
NC State 28


Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
Florida State 28
NC State 28

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
NC State 29
Florida State 25

Total Points: 54
NC State Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.3
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

NC State's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/21NC State21Florida State11Florida State -7NC State58.5Under
202210/08NC State19Florida State17NC State -3.5Florida State50.5Under
202111/06Florida State14NC State28NC State -3NC State55.0Under
202011/14NC State38Florida State22NC State -12.0NC State61.0Under
201909/28Florida State31NC State13Florida State -7Florida State62.0Under
201811/03NC State47Florida State28NC State -9.5NC State52.0Over
201709/23Florida State21NC State27Florida State -11.5NC State50.0Under
201611/05NC State20Florida State24Florida State -6.5NC State58.0Under
201511/14Florida State34NC State17Florida State -10.5Florida State55.0Under
201409/27NC State41Florida State56Florida State -23NC State0
201310/26Florida State49NC State17Florida State -27.5Florida State0
201210/06NC State17Florida State16
201110/29Florida State34NC State0
201010/28NC State28Florida State24
200910/31Florida State45NC State42
200810/16NC State17Florida State26
200710/06Florida State27NC State10
200610/05NC State24Florida State20
200511/05Florida State15NC State20
200411/11NC State10Florida State17
200311/15Florida State50NC State44
200111/10Florida State28NC State34
200010/27NC State14Florida State58
TeamWinsCoversO/U
NC State1171 Overs
Florida State1248 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams14 - 98 - 35 - 23 - 1
Road Teams9 - 143 - 81 - 32 - 5

(#47) FSU at (#51) NCST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFSUNCST
Power RatePwr #47 #51
SP+SP+ #43 #61
Perf GradeGrade #30 #73
OffenseOff #20 #51
DefenseDef #68 #90
Spec TeamsST #46 #78
TalentTal #17 #43
Blue ChipsBC% #17 #39
Florida State Notes
(12/16) FSU looks like they aren't serious about 2026
(11/23) Norvell will return in '26. Fund road slate now
(11/22) A straight 0-8 in road ACC games past 2 years
(10/20) Rumors sound toxic, player leadership void
(10/19) Norvell lost 4 straight, 4 times now. 1-11 ACC run
(10/19) OG'd Stanford by 150, still lost for the 4th straight time
(10/19) Castellanos knocked out of Stanford game, dirty hit
(10/12) Norvell w/o Jordan Travis is 7-21.
(10/11) LBs lack speed and huge liability in coverage
(10/11) Noles have lost their last 8 ACC conference games
(9/26) Tackling a huge issue vs UVA, allowed 450+ in L
(8/30) Outrushed Bama 230-87, Cast quick, efficient
Florida State Injury Report
NC State Notes
(11/21) Fr QB W Wilson got designed runs in FSU game
(11/5) RB Jayden Scott (Fr) huge vs GT. Name to watch
(10/12) Def really beat up & can't compete. Off regressing
(10/9) DB injury issues, nickel down to 5th option (ND wk)
(9/30) Run Def mauled by VT? Run Off awful, horrific loss
(9/30) Things could go south in a hurry for this program
(9/20) Def horrible, torched by Duke. Bailey TOs killed
(9/11) Run Off good vs Wake, Def bad but rallied
(9/11) CJ Bailey is a weapon, holds ball long at times
(9/11) Tackling is an issue, Def very inconsistent
(8/29) Run Def great vs ECU, run off a big concern
(7/28) Off only 5 portals, 3 OL & 2 TE, good sign?
NC State Injury Report
Florida State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
FSU OffNCST Def
Perf GradePerf #20 #90
SuccessSuc #31 #41
ExplosiveExp #21 #134
PPAPPA #21 #102
PowerPwr #31 #80
SP+SP+ #54 #73
Pts POPPO #46 #73
HavocHav #55 #84
Florida State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
FSU OffNCST Def
Run GameRun #21 #61
Run SuccessRSuc #12 #22
Run ExplRExp #44 #122
PPAExp #14 #78
Run BlockR Blk #40 -
OL YdsOLY #8 #64
Stuff RateStuff #4 #65
TackleTak -  #56
Florida State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
FSU OffNCST Def
Pass GamePass #11 #97
Pass SuccessPSuc #81 #55
Pass ExplPExl #5 #118
PPAExp #46 #91
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #17 #68
F7 HavocF7 #59 #108
DB HavocDB #50 #46
NC State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatNCST OffFSU Def
Perf GradePerf #51 #68
SuccessSuc #52 #76
ExplosiveExp #12 #15
PPAPPA #20 #69
PowerPwr #28 #71
SP+SP+ #47 #38
Pts POPPO #10 #110
HavocHav #73 #72
NC State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
NCST OffFSU Def
Run GameRun #57 #32
Run SuccessRSuc #64 #65
Run ExplRExp #19 #19
PPAExp #32 #74
Run BlockR Blk #67 -
OL YdsOLY #68 #106
Stuff RateStuff #112 #120
TackleTak -  #68
NC State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatNCST OffFSU Def
Pass GamePass #79 #103
Pass SuccessPSuc #43 #80
Pass ExplPExl #31 #59
PPAExp #25 #69
Pass Block/RushP Blk #56 #91
F7 HavocF7 #98 #30
DB HavocDB #54 #122
Program Comparison
NCST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

FSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Carter-Finley Stadium
Conditions: Fog
Temp: 61°
Rematch from Week 13
Florida State 7.0 (58.5)
NC State won vs Florida State this year (21-11)

Previous Matchups
NC State beat Florida State in 2022 (19-17)

  
FSU's OC Gus Malzahn (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Thomas Castellanos (Tr)18030958%27601598.9
Kevin Sperry121771%1942011.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Thomas Castellanos (Tr)13755794.126
Gavin Sawchuk (Tr)10948684.540
Ousmane Kromah7240805.723
Samuel Singleton5136047.153
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Duce Robinson (Tr)561074619.282
Micahi Danzy27571321.166
Lawayne McCoy27403314.934
Randy Pittman (Tr)2320829.035

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Tony White (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Earl Little II762002
Ashlynd Barker485412
Darrell Jackson442110
Justin Cryer435130
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mandrell Desir308711
Ashlynd Barker485412
Stefon Thompson (Tr)374410
Daniel Lyons264240
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Edwin Joseph374005
Earl Little II762002
Jeremiah Wilson (Tr)421002

NCST's OC Kurt Roper (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
CJ Bailey27339769%31052597.8
Lex Thomas2729%18002.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Daylan Smothers16093965.965
Jayden Scott10659545.669
CJ Bailey8921562.430
Will Wilson43146103.416
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Terrell Anderson39629516.175
Justin Joly49489710.059
Wesley Grimes31458314.848
Noah Rogers31413213.348

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC D. J. Eliot (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caden Fordham14310443
Kenny Soares Jr. (Tr)804162
Asaad Brown Jr.640002
Cian Slone (Tr)6272161
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tra Thomas (Tr)246450
Caden Fordham14310443
Travali Price225441
Sabastian Harsh (Tr)4183133
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devon Marshall5000115
Jackson Vick452006
Brian Nelson II (Tr)291006