Florida State at NC State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Florida State logo Florida State Seminoles at NC State WolfpackNC State logo
Friday, November 21st 2025 (8:00 PM EST)
Carter-Finley Stadium - Raleigh, NC  (ACC)

 
Seminoles (4 - 5) (4 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (33 - 27)
Avg Score : 37 - 21 (20 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 6 (#75)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
FSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Florida State -3  (SP+ FSU -8)

Projected Score: FSU: 30 - NCST: 27 (57)
FSU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
FSU Travel: 491 miles
Wolfpack (5 - 4) (4 - 5 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (87 - 64)
Avg Score : 32 - 31 (37 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.3 - 5.7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Florida State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Florida State vs Alabama+13.550.5W 31 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Florida State vs East Texas A&M-43.556.5W 77 - 3OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Florida State vs Kent State-44.556.5W 66 - 10OY
Fri 9/26 Florida State at Virginia-7.059.5L 38 - 46ON
Sat 10/4 Florida State vs Miami+3.554.5L 22 - 28UN
Sat 10/11 Florida State vs Pittsburgh-10.556.5L 31 - 34ON
Sat 10/18 Florida State at Stanford-17.555.5L 13 - 20UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Florida State vs Wake Forest-12.550.5W 42 - 7UY
Sat 11/8 Florida State at Clemson+1.556.5L 10 - 24UN
Sat 11/15 Florida State vs Virginia Tech-14.554.5
Fri 11/21 Florida State at NC State-3
Sat 11/29 Florida State at Florida+2.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule
NC State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 NC State vs East Carolina-12.558.5W 24 - 17UN
Sat 9/6 NC State vs Virginia-3.053.0W 35 - 31OY
Thu 9/11 NC State at Wake Forest-7.552.5W 34 - 24OY
Sat 9/20 NC State at Duke+3.057.5L 33 - 45ON
Sat 9/27 NC State vs Virginia Tech-10.057.5L 21 - 23UN
Sat 10/4 NC State vs Campbell-42.561.5W 56 - 10OY
Sat 10/11 NC State at Notre Dame+23.559.5L 7 - 36UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 NC State at Pittsburgh+5.552.5L 34 - 53ON
Sat 11/1 NC State vs Georgia Tech+4.558.5W 48 - 36OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 NC State at Miami+15.555.5
Fri 11/21 NC State vs Florida State+3
Sat 11/29 NC State vs North Carolina-11.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for NC State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU#26 (.28)46% (33)36.750% (14)3.33 (15)22740% (88)2674.27 (33)#56 (.13)40% (47)2139% (32)42% (71)3.98 (98)52.71.41.2
NCST#17 (.32)45% (42)32.443% (80)2.91 (75)16246% (32)2784.64 (18)#116 (.24)39% (32)30.635% (12)42% (70)3.93 (96)58.11.20.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU#125 (.06)35% (128)40% (103)2.9 (92)9131% (130)1802.88 (131)#112 (.25)41% (56)42% (62)39% (52)3.62 (46)47.91.80.5
NCST#26 (.25)45% (36)44% (68)3.24 (36)13047% (20)2153.97 (61)#86 (.19)41% (59)39% (31)43% (87)3.78 (67)451.71.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Offense936.720.345.5%4.271.4244942272675.355%44%50%40%15%.28
NCST Defense930.623.438.9%3.930.8 - - - - - 43%56%35%42%14%.24
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Defense9213040%3.981.2 - - - - - 52%47%39%42%17%.13
NCST Offense932.436.844.7%4.641.2214391622785.146%53%43%46%16%.32

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida State928:5424.251%57%5.852.71.41.26.62.7029.4
NC State930:1821.342%39%658.11.20.85.31.4127
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Offense955% (29)50% (14)43.1226.95.327 (4).26 (11)3.33 (15)79% (25)10% (77)1.09 (25)
NCST Defense943% (8)35% (12) - - - - .13 (88)2.69 (36)61% (17)8% (105)1.22 (133)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Defense952% (104)39% (32) - - - - .03 (30)2.86 (73)75% (88)12% (17)0.81 (10)
NCST Offense946% (100)43% (80)31.8161.65.119 (40).17 (42)2.91 (75)71% (78)11% (104)1.11 (21)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Offense944% (104)40% (88)17.128.2267.19.515.616 (33)6 (60).33 (46)1.9 (4)31% (68)36% (21).47 (21)5% (38)2.2 (16)
NCST Defense956% (131)42% (70) - - - - - - 6 (75).35 (109)1.7 (120)35% (22)30% (81).39 (110)6% (77)2.1 (109)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Defense947% (40)42% (71) - - - - - - 10 (12).26 (80)1.6 (78)30% (99)27% (34).28 (70)5% (105)2.1 (103)
NCST Offense953% (36)46% (32)23.333.4277.88.311.920 (33)8 (119).47 (16)1.7 (24)32% (77)33% (49).44 (29)6% (60)2.2 (26)

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 12.23  #37
Florida State's Offense Rating: 18.05  #27
Florida State's Defense Rating: 5.82  #57
2025 Talent Rating: 938.00  #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 45%  #17
Florida State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.0 - 6.0
Florida State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.5  #28
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #46
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.3  #26

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 12.23   NC State: 8.97

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 11.5   NC State: 3.7




NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 8.97  #45
NC State's Offense Rating: 18.44  #26
NC State's Defense Rating: 9.20  #77
2025 Talent Rating: 838.00  #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 10  #39
NC State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.3 - 5.7
NC State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.7  #56
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.7  #31
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.5  #79

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Florida State Scoring
Offense: 36.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.3
Defense: 21 PPG
Defense on Road: 30

Florida State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 5
Record vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Florida State 30
NC State 27


Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
NC State 33
Florida State 23

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
NC State 30
Florida State 28

Total Points: 58
NC State Scoring
Offense: 32.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.8
Defense: 30.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 23.4

NC State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 4
Record vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202210/08NC State19Florida State17NC State -3.5Florida State50.5Under
202111/06Florida State14NC State28NC State -3NC State55.0Under
202011/14NC State38Florida State22NC State -12.0NC State61.0Under
201909/28Florida State31NC State13Florida State -7Florida State62.0Under
201811/03NC State47Florida State28NC State -9.5NC State52.0Over
201709/23Florida State21NC State27Florida State -11.5NC State50.0Under
201611/05NC State20Florida State24Florida State -6.5NC State58.0Under
201511/14Florida State34NC State17Florida State -10.5Florida State55.0Under
201409/27NC State41Florida State56Florida State -23NC State0
201310/26Florida State49NC State17Florida State -27.5Florida State0
201210/06NC State17Florida State16
201110/29Florida State34NC State0
201010/28NC State28Florida State24
200910/31Florida State45NC State42
200810/16NC State17Florida State26
200710/06Florida State27NC State10
200610/05NC State24Florida State20
200511/05Florida State15NC State20
200411/11NC State10Florida State17
200311/15Florida State50NC State44
200111/10Florida State28NC State34
200010/27NC State14Florida State58
TeamWinsCoversO/U
NC State1061 Overs
Florida State1247 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 97 - 35 - 22 - 1
Road Teams9 - 133 - 71 - 22 - 5

(#37) FSU at (#45) NCST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFSUNCST
Power RatePwr #37 #45
SP+SP+ #28 #56
Perf GradeGrade #14 #58
OffenseOff #20 #41
DefenseDef #30 #78
Spec TeamsST #52 #80
TalentTal #17 #43
Blue ChipsBC% #17 #39
Florida State Notes
(10/20) Rumors sound toxic, player leadership void
(10/19) Norvell lost 4 straight, 4 times now. 1-11 ACC run
(10/19) OG'd Stanford by 150, still lost for the 4th straight time
(10/19) Castellanos knocked out of Stanford game, dirty hit
(10/12) Norvell w/o Jordan Travis is 7-21.
(10/11) LBs lack speed and huge liability in coverage
(10/11) Noles have lost their last 8 ACC conference games
(9/26) Tackling a huge issue vs UVA, allowed 450+ in L
(8/30) Outrushed Bama 230-87, Cast quick, efficient
(8/30) Def great vs Bama, held 6-17 3rd, 2-5 4th downs
(8/16) S. Hussey kicked off team after fight w/ coach
(7/18) Entire staff/roster to raise floor, save jobs
Florida State Injury Report
NC State Notes
(11/5) RB Jayden Scott (Fr) huge vs GT. Name to watch
(10/12) Def really beat up & can't compete. Off regressing
(10/9) DB injury issues, nickel down to 5th option (ND wk)
(9/30) Run Def mauled by VT? Run Off awful, horrific loss
(9/30) Things could go south in a hurry for this program
(9/20) Def horrible, torched by Duke. Bailey TOs killed
(9/11) Run Off good vs Wake, Def bad but rallied
(9/11) CJ Bailey is a weapon, holds ball long at times
(9/11) Tackling is an issue, Def very inconsistent
(8/29) Run Def great vs ECU, run off a big concern
(7/28) Off only 5 portals, 3 OL & 2 TE, good sign?
(5/29) Same 3-3-5 Def, added 4 DE's (G5) for rush
NC State Injury Report
Florida State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat
FSU OffNCST Def
Perf GradePerf #20 #78
SuccessSuc #33 #32
ExplosiveExp #8 #135
PPAPPA #26 #116
PowerPwr #27 #77
SP+SP+ #46 #79
Pts POPPO #33 #96
HavocHav #58 #101
Florida State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat
FSU OffNCST Def
Run GameRun #10 #41
Run SuccessRSuc #14 #12
Run ExplRExp #25 #133
PPAExp #11 #88
Run BlockR Blk #51 -
OL YdsOLY #15 #36
Stuff RateStuff #8 #26
TackleTak -  #59
Florida State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat
FSU OffNCST Def
Pass GamePass #17 #98
Pass SuccessPSuc #88 #70
Pass ExplPExl #4 #120
PPAExp #46 #109
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #32 #65
F7 HavocF7 #77 #105
DB HavocDB #38 #77
NC State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatNCST OffFSU Def
Perf GradePerf #41 #30
SuccessSuc #42 #47
ExplosiveExp #6 #32
PPAPPA #17 #56
PowerPwr #26 #57
SP+SP+ #31 #26
Pts POPPO #18 #98
HavocHav #86 #55
NC State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
NCST OffFSU Def
Run GameRun #72 #4
Run SuccessRSuc #80 #32
Run ExplRExp #21 #10
PPAExp #42 #30
Run BlockR Blk #63 -
OL YdsOLY #75 #73
Stuff RateStuff #127 #75
TackleTak -  #45
NC State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatNCST OffFSU Def
Pass GamePass #44 #74
Pass SuccessPSuc #32 #71
Pass ExplPExl #24 #78
PPAExp #16 #80
Pass Block/RushP Blk #31 #96
F7 HavocF7 #104 #17
DB HavocDB #60 #105
Program Comparison
NCST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

FSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Carter-Finley Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 57°
Previous Matchups
NC State beat Florida State in 2022 (19-17)

  
FSU's OC Gus Malzahn (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Thomas Castellanos (Tr)13522560%21281169.5
Kevin Sperry121771%1942011.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Gavin Sawchuk (Tr)9443384.640
Thomas Castellanos (Tr)10035963.626
Ousmane Kromah5231006.023
Samuel Singleton3528648.253
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Duce Robinson (Tr)43813418.982
Micahi Danzy23522222.766
Lawayne McCoy17232213.634
Randy Pittman (Tr)1817629.835

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Tony White (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Earl Little II572001
Ja'Bril Rawls402002
Blake Nichelson355111
Ashlynd Barker344412
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mandrell Desir185411
Ashlynd Barker344412
Stefon Thompson (Tr)152200
Amaree Williams102200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Edwin Joseph243004
Jeremiah Wilson (Tr)300002
Ashlynd Barker344412

NCST's OC Kurt Roper (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
CJ Bailey20328771%24111978.4
Lex Thomas2633%18003.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Daylan Smothers12082566.965
Jayden Scott7143146.169
CJ Bailey6013742.330
Will Wilson185843.215
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Terrell Anderson28527418.875
Justin Joly36365510.159
Wesley Grimes22337115.348
Noah Rogers25333213.348

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC D. J. Eliot (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caden Fordham927341
Kenny Soares Jr. (Tr)563151
Cian Slone (Tr)4562101
Sean Brown444041
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caden Fordham927341
Sabastian Harsh (Tr)287373
Travali Price174341
Tra Thomas (Tr)194240
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devon Marshall280016
Jamel Johnson (Tr)241005
Jackson Vick281004