NC State at Pittsburgh Game Matchup
NC State logo NC State Wolfpack at Pittsburgh PanthersPittsburgh logo
Saturday, October 25th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Acrisure Stadium - Pittsburgh, PA  (ACC)

 
Wolfpack (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (87 - 64)
Avg Score : 29 - 30 (31 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.9 - 5.1 (#53)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 4)
NCST coming off BYE
PITT is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Pittsburgh -1   (SP+ NCST -1.5)
Projected Score: NCST: 31 - PITT: 32 (61)
PITT Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
NCST Travel: 329 miles
Panthers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Pat Narduzzi (72 - 55)
Avg Score : 33 - 28 (38 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.1 - 5.9 (#73)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 3)
 
NC State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Wed 8/27 NC State vs East Carolina-12.50.0
Sat 9/6 NC State vs Virginia-8.5
Thu 9/11 NC State at Wake Forest-10.5
Sat 9/20 NC State at Duke+2.5
Sat 9/27 NC State vs Virginia Tech-3
Sat 10/4 NC State vs Campbell-29.5
Sat 10/11 NC State at Notre Dame+22.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 NC State at Pittsburgh+1
Sat 11/1 NC State vs Georgia Tech-1
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 NC State at Miami+16.5
Fri 11/21 NC State vs Florida State-1
Sat 11/29 NC State vs North Carolina-6.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 5, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 5, Bad 3, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for NC State's Schedule
Pittsburgh's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Pittsburgh vs Duquesne-28
Sat 9/6 Pittsburgh vs Central Michigan-21
Sat 9/13 Pittsburgh at West Virginia-2.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Pittsburgh vs Louisville+5
Sat 10/4 Pittsburgh vs Boston College-4.5
Sat 10/11 Pittsburgh at Florida State+5.5
Sat 10/18 Pittsburgh at Syracuse+3.5
Sat 10/25 Pittsburgh vs NC State-1
Sat 11/1 Pittsburgh at Stanford-8
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Pittsburgh vs Notre Dame+18.5
Sat 11/22 Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech+5
Sat 11/29 Pittsburgh vs Miami+13

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Pittsburgh's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NCST#26 (.25)45% (36)28.544% (68)3.24 (36)13047% (20)2153.97 (61)#86 (.19)41% (59)30.239% (31)43% (87)3.78 (67)451.71.4
PITT#91 (.15)42% (85)32.945% (56)3.1 (53)11939% (97)2564.11 (49)#35 (.12)38% (25)28.438% (20)38% (38)3.68 (57)58.21.31.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NCST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
PITT0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NCST Offense1328.530.845.1%3.971.7193451302154.447%52%44%47%19%.25
PITT Defense1328.421.638.1%3.681.2 - - - - - 45%55%38%38%18%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NCST Defense1330.235.540.9%3.781.4 - - - - - 47%53%39%43%20%.19
PITT Offense1332.937.641.6%4.111.3213751192564.342%58%45%39%21%.15

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
NC State1329:1018.637%56%4.8451.71.46.21.8228.9
Pittsburgh1324:0120.738%52%6.458.21.31.27.63627.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NCST Offense1347% (89)44% (68)29.6130.34.421 (59).15 (56)3.24 (36)69% (92)13% (127)0.98 (59)
PITT Defense1345% (13)38% (20) - - - - - (13)2.36 (2)48% (1)12% (25)0.98 (67)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NCST Defense1347% (33)39% (31) - - - - .2 (111)3.07 (83)76% (86)12% (24)1.28 (134)
PITT Offense1342% (116)45% (56)27.3118.64.314 (98).18 (42)3.1 (53)77% (40)12% (119)1.05 (41)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NCST Offense1352% (48)47% (20)18.228.1214.87.711.818 (68)12 (85).36 (24)1.6 (45)30% (35)36% (24).57 (5)6% (83)2.2 (19)
PITT Defense1355% (122)38% (38) - - - - - - 12 (39).23 (70)1.8 (123)37% (3)31% (82).33 (82)6% (50)2.2 (113)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NCST Defense1353% (106)43% (87) - - - - - - 8 (93).19 (47)1.5 (22)33% (49)30% (65).33 (83)8% (16)2.3 (120)
PITT Offense1358% (18)39% (97)21.835.9256.27.111.727 (20)13 (103).13 (112)1.6 (55)32% (85)35% (30).36 (60)8% (126)2.1 (40)

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 7.01 #46
NC State's Offense Rating: 18.52 #41
NC State's Defense Rating: 11.51 #48
2025 Talent Rating: 814.00 #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #37
NC State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.9 - 5.1
NC State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8 #42
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #36
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.4 #54

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 826.12
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: 7.01   Pittsburgh: 7.125

SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 4.8   Pittsburgh: 3.4




Pittsburgh's Power Ratings
Pittsburgh's Power Rating: 7.125 #51
Pittsburgh's Offense Rating: 17.28 #47
Pittsburgh's Defense Rating: 11.43 #47
2025 Talent Rating: 752.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #62
Pittsburgh's 2025 Expected Record: 6.1 - 5.9
Pittsburgh's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.4 #47
Pittsburgh's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #45
Pittsburgh's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #55

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 826.12
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29


NC State Scoring
Offense: 28.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.8
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.5

NC State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Pittsburgh 32
NC State 31

Projected Total Points: 61
Pittsburgh Scoring
Offense: 32.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.6
Defense: 28.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.6

Pittsburgh's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202010/03Pittsburgh29NC State30NC StatePittsburgh -14NC State45.5Over
201710/14Pittsburgh17NC State35NC StateNC State -11NC State55.0Under
200909/26NC State38Pittsburgh31NC State
200112/20NC State19Pittsburgh34Pittsburgh
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Pittsburgh101 Overs
NC State321 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 30 - 20 - 10 - 1
Road Teams3 - 12 - 01 - 01 - 0

(#46) NC State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 7.01 #46
Offense Rating: 18.52 #41
Defense Rating: 11.51 #48
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8 #42
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #36
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.4 #54
Talent Rating: 814.00 #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #37
Expected Record: 6.9 - 5.1

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
Good Offense Success Rate of 45%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.97 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Great Pass Success 47%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.78 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Bad Pass Def Success 43%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


NC State Notes
(5/29) Same 3-3-5 Def, added 4 DE's (G5) for rush
(5/29) DB exp is mostly portal adds, LBs OK but depth?
(5/29) Tons of close lines, lots of variance in '25
(5/29) New OC is Kurt Roper, on staff since '19. Meh
(5/29) QB Bailey a good find as Fr in a bad '24 season
(5/29) WRs meh LY, some depth. TE Joly a weapon.
(5/29) OL returns 2/5, 3 portals. OTs decent, IOL ?
(5/29) Def was bad LY, 13 portal adds, lots of ??
(3/19) RB Smoothers back, depth/playmakers?
(3/19) DC Eliot journeyman with ? success
NC State     Ratings Matchup     Pittsburgh
Power #46
#51
Off #41
#47
Def #48
#47
Talent #46
#58
SP+ #42
#47
SP+ Off #36
#45
SP+ Def #54
#55

Weather Forecast
Playing in Acrisure Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: NCST | PITT
Depth Chart: NCST | PITT
Rosters: NCST | PITT
(#51) Pittsburgh Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 7.125 #51
Offense Rating: 17.28 #47
Defense Rating: 11.43 #47
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.4 #47
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #45
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #55
Talent Rating: 752.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #62
Expected Record: 6.1 - 5.9

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.11 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Poor OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 38%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.68 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Pittsburgh Notes
(4/4) LB K. Louis/R. Biles both top 10 LBs via PFF
(3/21) QB Holstein back, was OK LY. Same OC
(3/21) RB Reid one of ACC best. Need more here
(3/21) WR rebuild. Took 3 portals. Have some options
(3/21) OL 3/5 back, not good LY. 2 portal adds
(3/21) Def avg LY, 5 portals, 4 on DL. Light on DBs
(3/21) OC Bell was an upgrade LY.
(3/21) Don't know what Pitt wants to be in NIL era


  
NC State's OC Kurt Roper
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
CJ Bailey19630265%241217108.0
Lex Thomas5863%65118.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Daylan Smothers8957166.453
CJ Bailey9927952.831
Lex Thomas1909.09
Coleson Fields3802.73
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Justin Joly43661415.440
Noah Rogers35478113.775
Wesley Grimes24319113.330
Daylan Smothers19263213.872

View NC State's Full Roster
NC State's DC D. J. Eliot
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sean Brown9593131
Jeremiah Johnson (Tr)691016
Brian Nelson II (Tr)532013
Caden Fordham504162
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cian Slone (Tr)4910850
Travali Price379430
Sean Brown9593131
Sabastian Harsh (Tr)419310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devon Marshall331007
Jeremiah Johnson (Tr)691016
Brian Nelson II (Tr)532013

Pittsburgh's OC Kade Bell
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cole Gonzales (Tr)19631263%24711257.9
Eli Holstein17929062%22251777.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Desmond Reid18496655.372
Eli Holstein8132834.049
Cole Gonzales (Tr)5919423.350
Che Nwabuko676112.757
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Desmond Reid52579411.172
Kenny Johnson46537311.746
Raphael Williams36419611.635
Censere Lee19254313.482

View Pittsburgh's Full Roster
Pittsburgh's DC Randy Bates
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kyle Louis10016793
Rasheem Biles8014439
Braylan Lovelace5311411
Javon Mcintyre514013
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kyle Louis10016793
Jimmy Scott3013662
Braylan Lovelace5311411
Rasheem Biles8014439
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rasheem Biles8014439
Tamon Lynum372106
Kyle Louis10016793