NC State at Pittsburgh - 2025 Matchup Preview
NC State logo NC State Wolfpack at Pittsburgh PanthersPittsburgh logo
Saturday, October 25th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Pittsburgh -5.5 (52.5) (-190)  Open: -7.5 | 55.5
Pittsburgh 53 - NC State: 34  (ACC)

 
Wolfpack (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (87 - 64)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (23 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#64)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
NCST coming off BYE
PITT is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Pittsburgh -7  (SP+ PITT -6)

Projected Score: NCST: 24 - PITT: 31 (56)
PITT Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
NCST Travel: 329 miles
Panthers (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Pat Narduzzi (72 - 55)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (37 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
 
NC State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 NC State vs East Carolina-12.558.5W 24 - 17UN
Sat 9/6 NC State vs Virginia-3.053.0W 35 - 31OY
Thu 9/11 NC State at Wake Forest-7.552.5W 34 - 24OY
Sat 9/20 NC State at Duke+3.057.5L 33 - 45ON
Sat 9/27 NC State vs Virginia Tech-10.057.5L 21 - 23UN
Sat 10/4 NC State vs Campbell-42.561.5W 56 - 10OY
Sat 10/11 NC State at Notre Dame+23.559.5L 7 - 36UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 NC State at Pittsburgh+5.552.5L 34 - 53ON
Sat 11/1 NC State vs Georgia Tech+4.558.5W 48 - 36OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 NC State at Miami+16.554.5L 7 - 41UN
Fri 11/21 NC State vs Florida State+7.058.5W 21 - 11UY
Sat 11/29 NC State vs North Carolina-7.048.5W 42 - 19OY
Fri 12/19 NC State vs Memphis-6.056.5W 31 - 7UY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for NC State's Schedule
Pittsburgh's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Pittsburgh vs Duquesne-39.558.5W 61 - 9OY
Sat 9/6 Pittsburgh vs Central Michigan-21.548.5W 45 - 17OY
Sat 9/13 Pittsburgh at West Virginia-6.554.5L 24 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Pittsburgh vs Louisville+3.053.5L 27 - 34ON
Sat 10/4 Pittsburgh vs Boston College-6.554.5W 48 - 7OY
Sat 10/11 Pittsburgh at Florida State+10.556.5W 34 - 31OY
Sat 10/18 Pittsburgh at Syracuse-9.554.5W 30 - 13UY
Sat 10/25 Pittsburgh vs NC State-5.552.5W 53 - 34OY
Sat 11/1 Pittsburgh at Stanford-13.551.5W 35 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Pittsburgh vs Notre Dame+12.555.5L 15 - 37UN
Sat 11/22 Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech+2.561.5W 42 - 28OY
Sat 11/29 Pittsburgh vs Miami+6.549.5L 7 - 38UN
Sat 12/27 Pittsburgh vs East Carolina-13.551.5L 17 - 23UN

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Pittsburgh's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NCST#20 (.28)44% (52)30.244% (64)2.94 (68)14744% (43)2464.69 (10)#102 (.21)39% (41)27.238% (22)40% (55)3.7 (73)53.811.2
PITT#59 (.19)41% (95)33.741% (96)2.62 (123)10841% (76)2543.65 (76)#33 (.09)35% (11)24.834% (7)37% (27)3.81 (83)64.71.41.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NCST#26 (.25)45% (36)44% (68)3.24 (36)13047% (20)2153.97 (61)#86 (.19)41% (59)39% (31)43% (87)3.78 (67)451.71.4
PITT#91 (.15)42% (85)45% (56)3.1 (53)11939% (97)2564.11 (49)#35 (.12)38% (25)38% (20)38% (38)3.68 (57)58.21.31.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NCST Offense1330.22343.8%4.691203931472464.547%51%44%44%16%.28
PITT Defense1324.825.135.2%3.811.5 - - - - - 46%52%34%37%19%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NCST Defense1327.239.839.3%3.71.2 - - - - - 43%56%38%40%15%.21
PITT Offense1333.736.640.6%3.651.4193621082543.643%55%41%41%18%.19

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
NC State1329:4720.441%50%5.553.811.25.11.5127.9
Pittsburgh1326:2318.933%61%7.164.71.41.56.82.2633.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NCST Offense1347% (86)44% (64)32.5147.14.527 (40).19 (32)2.94 (68)73% (63)10% (98)1.1 (19)
PITT Defense1346% (27)34% (7) - - - - -.03 (9)2.34 (5)69% (53)13% (9)0.98 (80)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NCST Defense1343% (4)38% (22) - - - - .12 (78)2.87 (64)65% (26)8% (108)1.09 (122)
PITT Offense1343% (115)41% (96)30108.53.618 (70).06 (96)2.62 (123)67% (96)11% (106)1.01 (54)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NCST Offense1351% (49)44% (43)21.531.8245.77.711.426 (33)10 (119).39 (25)1.6 (31)31% (67)32% (48).4 (34)6% (54)2.1 (53)
PITT Defense1352% (107)37% (27) - - - - - - 15 (31).21 (53)1.6 (110)37% (11)26% (18).17 (20)6% (49)2.1 (95)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NCST Defense1356% (132)40% (55) - - - - - - 9 (75).3 (91)1.7 (118)35% (21)31% (90).38 (112)7% (46)2.1 (83)
PITT Offense1355% (22)41% (76)20.332.6253.87.812.528 (8)14 (127).34 (39)1.7 (28)33% (104)31% (63).35 (53)8% (123)2 (69)

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 6.88  #51
NC State's Offense Rating: 16.98  #28
NC State's Defense Rating: 10.10  #80
2025 Talent Rating: 838.00  #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 10%  #39
NC State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.4 - 5.6
NC State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.9  #61
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4  #47
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.8  #73

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: 6.88   Pittsburgh: 11.98

SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 2.9   Pittsburgh: 9.0




Pittsburgh's Power Ratings
Pittsburgh's Power Rating: 11.98  #42
Pittsburgh's Offense Rating: 13.68  #47
Pittsburgh's Defense Rating: 3.72  #38
2025 Talent Rating: 786.00  #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #56
Pittsburgh's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Pittsburgh's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.0  #36
Pittsburgh's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.1  #33
Pittsburgh's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3  #50

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


NC State Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.8

NC State's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Pittsburgh 31
NC State 24


Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
Pittsburgh 35
NC State 23

Total Points: 58

Based on Entire Season
Pittsburgh 35
NC State 26

Total Points: 61
Pittsburgh Scoring
Offense: 33.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.6
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.1

Pittsburgh's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/25Pittsburgh53NC State34Pittsburgh -5.5Pittsburgh52.5Over
202010/03Pittsburgh29NC State30Pittsburgh -14NC State45.5Over
201710/14Pittsburgh17NC State35NC State -11NC State55.0Under
200909/26NC State38Pittsburgh31
200112/20NC State19Pittsburgh34
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Pittsburgh212 Overs
NC State321 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 31 - 21 - 10 - 1
Road Teams3 - 22 - 11 - 01 - 1

(#51) NCST at (#42) PITT
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNCSTPITT
Power RatePwr #51 #42
SP+SP+ #61 #36
Perf GradeGrade #73 #59
OffenseOff #51 #100
DefenseDef #90 #24
Spec TeamsST #78 #69
TalentTal #43 #58
Blue ChipsBC% #39 #56
NC State Notes
(11/21) Fr QB W Wilson got designed runs in FSU game
(11/5) RB Jayden Scott (Fr) huge vs GT. Name to watch
(10/12) Def really beat up & can't compete. Off regressing
(10/9) DB injury issues, nickel down to 5th option (ND wk)
(9/30) Run Def mauled by VT? Run Off awful, horrific loss
(9/30) Things could go south in a hurry for this program
(9/20) Def horrible, torched by Duke. Bailey TOs killed
(9/11) Run Off good vs Wake, Def bad but rallied
(9/11) CJ Bailey is a weapon, holds ball long at times
(9/11) Tackling is an issue, Def very inconsistent
(8/29) Run Def great vs ECU, run off a big concern
(7/28) Off only 5 portals, 3 OL & 2 TE, good sign?
NC State Injury Report
Pittsburgh Notes
(11/16) No show vs ND, non competitive. Pitt isn't good
(10/25) Four W's in a row, killed NC St, Heintschel 400+
(10/12) QB Heintschel saved season. Chance 7-2 hosting ND
(10/9) Ton of injuries, and a lot of DL. See injury report
(10/4) QB Holstein benched, Fr Mason Heintschel starting
(10/4) RB D Reid missed L'ville, out for BC game
(10/4) QB Heintschel much better, raises Offense, new #1
(9/13) Run Off awful vs WVU, Red Zone issues too
(7/13) Look better TY esp Off, sleeper ACC pick
(7/13) WR #2+3 back, 3 portals. Shorter, but deep
(7/13) OL 3/5 back, 4 portals, top 3rd ACC line?
(7/13) Def decent LY, 8 portals, 3 DEs to find pass rush
Pittsburgh Injury Report
NC State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
NCST OffPITT Def
Perf GradePerf #51 #24
SuccessSuc #52 #11
ExplosiveExp #12 #120
PPAPPA #20 #33
PowerPwr #28 #38
SP+SP+ #47 #50
Pts POPPO #10 #83
HavocHav #73 #16
NC State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
NCST OffPITT Def
Run GameRun #57 #10
Run SuccessRSuc #64 #7
Run ExplRExp #19 #80
PPAExp #32 #9
Run BlockR Blk #67 -
OL YdsOLY #68 #5
Stuff RateStuff #112 #6
TackleTak -  #11
NC State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
NCST OffPITT Def
Pass GamePass #79 #33
Pass SuccessPSuc #43 #27
Pass ExplPExl #31 #110
PPAExp #25 #53
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #56 #54
F7 HavocF7 #98 #9
DB HavocDB #54 #49
Pittsburgh on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatPITT OffNCST Def
Perf GradePerf #100 #90
SuccessSuc #95 #41
ExplosiveExp #9 #134
PPAPPA #59 #102
PowerPwr #47 #80
SP+SP+ #33 #73
Pts POPPO #76 #73
HavocHav #120 #84
Pittsburgh Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
PITT OffNCST Def
Run GameRun #85 #61
Run SuccessRSuc #96 #22
Run ExplRExp #54 #122
PPAExp #96 #78
Run BlockR Blk #73 -
OL YdsOLY #123 #64
Stuff RateStuff #129 #65
TackleTak -  #56
Pittsburgh Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatPITT OffNCST Def
Pass GamePass #119 #97
Pass SuccessPSuc #76 #55
Pass ExplPExl #28 #118
PPAExp #39 #91
Pass Block/RushP Blk #85 #68
F7 HavocF7 #106 #108
DB HavocDB #123 #46
Program Comparison
PITT 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

NCST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Acrisure Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 53°
Rematch from Week 9
Pittsburgh -5.5 (52.5)
Pittsburgh won vs NC State this year (53-34)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
NCST's OC Kurt Roper (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
CJ Bailey27339769%31052597.8
Lex Thomas2729%18002.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Daylan Smothers16093965.965
Jayden Scott10659545.669
CJ Bailey8921562.430
Will Wilson43146103.416
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Terrell Anderson39629516.175
Justin Joly49489710.059
Wesley Grimes31458314.848
Noah Rogers31413213.348

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC D. J. Eliot (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caden Fordham14310443
Kenny Soares Jr. (Tr)804162
Asaad Brown Jr.640002
Cian Slone (Tr)6272161
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tra Thomas (Tr)246450
Caden Fordham14310443
Travali Price225441
Sabastian Harsh (Tr)4183133
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devon Marshall5000115
Jackson Vick452006
Brian Nelson II (Tr)291006

PITT's OC Kade Bell (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Mason Heintschel20131664%23571687.5
Eli Holstein7712562%10811268.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ja'Kyrian Turner14074775.356
Desmond Reid6027824.653
Juelz Goff6927053.917
Eli Holstein368812.431
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Raphael Williams52741714.367
Kenny Johnson47658514.042
Cataurus Hicks (Tr)24422417.684
Desmond Reid23317213.850

View Pittsburgh's Full Roster

PITT's DC Randy Bates (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rasheem Biles10017544
Kyle Louis798333
Braylan Lovelace796162
Kavir Bains (Tr)581004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rasheem Biles10017544
Jimmy Scott178481
Isaiah Neal367441
Kyle Louis798333
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rashad Battle422105
Rasheem Biles10017544
Kavir Bains (Tr)581004