NC State at Pittsburgh - 2025 Matchup Preview
NC State logo NC State Wolfpack at Pittsburgh PanthersPittsburgh logo
Saturday, October 25th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Acrisure Stadium - Pittsburgh, PA  (ACC)

 
Wolfpack (3 - 0) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (87 - 64)
Avg Score : 31 - 24 (34 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 4.2 (#45)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
NCST coming off BYE
PITT is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Pittsburgh -4.5   (SP+ PITT -5)

Projected Score: NCST: 28 - PITT: 32 (60)
PITT Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
NCST Travel: 329 miles
Panthers (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Pat Narduzzi (72 - 55)
Avg Score : 43 - 19 (53 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.2 - 5.8 (#78)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 3) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
 
NC State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 NC State vs East Carolina-12.558.5W 24 - 17UN
Sat 9/6 NC State vs Virginia-3.053.0W 35 - 31OY
Thu 9/11 NC State at Wake Forest-7.552.5W 34 - 24OY
Sat 9/20 NC State at Duke+3.058.5
Sat 9/27 NC State vs Virginia Tech-16
Sat 10/4 NC State vs Campbell-32
Sat 10/11 NC State at Notre Dame+12.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 NC State at Pittsburgh+4.5
Sat 11/1 NC State vs Georgia Tech+1.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 NC State at Miami+19.5
Fri 11/21 NC State vs Florida State+8.5
Sat 11/29 NC State vs North Carolina-9.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 3, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for NC State's Schedule
Pittsburgh's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Pittsburgh vs Duquesne-39.558.5W 61 - 9OY
Sat 9/6 Pittsburgh vs Central Michigan-21.548.5W 45 - 17OY
Sat 9/13 Pittsburgh at West Virginia-6.554.5L 24 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Pittsburgh vs Louisville+3.5
Sat 10/4 Pittsburgh vs Boston College-5.5
Sat 10/11 Pittsburgh at Florida State+11.5
Sat 10/18 Pittsburgh at Syracuse-2
Sat 10/25 Pittsburgh vs NC State-4.5
Sat 11/1 Pittsburgh at Stanford-9.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Pittsburgh vs Notre Dame+5.5
Sat 11/22 Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech+4.5
Sat 11/29 Pittsburgh vs Miami+13

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Pittsburgh's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NCST#56 (.23)44% (67)3140% (95)2.53 (108)17748% (39)2404.39 (48)#96 (.19)35% (35)2430% (13)39% (63)3.19 (58)57.30.31
PITT#39 (.31)46% (48)43.348% (47)2.54 (106)11246% (51)3153.83 (78)#59 (.11)30% (13)1929% (12)31% (23)4.46 (105)7211
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NCST#26 (.25)45% (36)44% (68)3.24 (36)13047% (20)2153.97 (61)#86 (.19)41% (59)39% (31)43% (87)3.78 (67)451.71.4
PITT#91 (.15)42% (85)45% (56)3.1 (53)11939% (97)2564.11 (49)#35 (.12)38% (25)38% (20)38% (38)3.68 (57)58.21.31.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NCST Offense3313443.8%4.390.3224161772404.755%45%40%48%18%.23
PITT Defense3191330.2%4.461 - - - - - 53%47%29%31%21%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NCST Defense3242435%3.191 - - - - - 39%60%30%39%14%.19
PITT Offense343.35346.5%3.831194271123153.943%57%48%46%18%.31

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
NC State332:3522.338%100%657.30.315.70.7128.9
Pittsburgh325:3719.338%50%7.772119.73.7137.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NCST Offense355% (44)40% (95)37.7176.74.76 (49).08 (89)2.53 (108)60% (103)12% (117)1.08 (45)
PITT Defense353% (99)29% (12) - - - - -.04 (35)2.05 (13)77% (98)16% (8)1.07 (93)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NCST Defense339% (8)30% (13) - - - - .15 (103)2.2 (21)64% (51)8% (94)1.57 (133)
PITT Offense343% (112)48% (47)28.7112.33.95 (62).15 (62)2.54 (106)77% (45)10% (83)1 (57)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NCST Offense345% (91)48% (39)2129.7239.78.111.45 (54)1 (23).42 (39)1.5 (67)33% (93)32% (66).24 (92)5% (76)1.8 (92)
PITT Defense347% (40)31% (23) - - - - - - 2 (56).28 (94)1.7 (109)39% (13)16% (15).13 (38)5% (91)2.2 (98)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NCST Defense360% (131)39% (63) - - - - - - 3 (28).25 (78)1.6 (79)37% (26)32% (92).43 (103)5% (80)2.1 (84)
PITT Offense357% (28)46% (51)2335.33158.913.710 (7)3 (92).48 (29)1.7 (29)28% (45)36% (37).55 (30)8% (122)2.1 (53)

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 12.30 #46
NC State's Offense Rating: 17.47 #42
NC State's Defense Rating: 5.17 #56
2025 Talent Rating: 838.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #39
NC State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 4.2
NC State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.1 #56
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #40
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #65

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: 12.30   Pittsburgh: 13.115

SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 5.1   Pittsburgh: 10.0




Pittsburgh's Power Ratings
Pittsburgh's Power Rating: 13.115 #51
Pittsburgh's Offense Rating: 15.01 #53
Pittsburgh's Defense Rating: 3.78 #49
2025 Talent Rating: 786.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #56
Pittsburgh's 2025 Expected Record: 6.2 - 5.8
Pittsburgh's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.0 #37
Pittsburgh's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.0 #33
Pittsburgh's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #46

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


NC State Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense on Road: 34
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense on Road: 24

NC State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Pittsburgh 32
NC State 28


Total Points: 60

Pittsburgh Scoring
Offense: 43.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 53
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense at Home: 13

Pittsburgh's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202010/03Pittsburgh29NC State30NC StatePittsburgh -14NC State45.5Over
201710/14Pittsburgh17NC State35NC StateNC State -11NC State55.0Under
200909/26NC State38Pittsburgh31NC State
200112/20NC State19Pittsburgh34Pittsburgh
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Pittsburgh101 Overs
NC State321 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 30 - 20 - 10 - 1
Road Teams3 - 12 - 01 - 01 - 0

(#46) NC State Info
Power Rating: 12.30 #46
Offense Rating: 17.47 #42
Defense Rating: 5.17 #56
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.1 #56
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #40
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #65
Talent Rating: 838.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #39
Expected Record: 7.8 - 4.2

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 44%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.39 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Good Pass Success 48%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 35%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.19 PPO
Great Run Def Success 30%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

NC State has lost 4 straight
NC State has lost 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

NC State Notes
(9/11) CJ Bailey is a weapon, holds ball long at times
(9/11) Tackling is an issue, Def very inconsistent
(8/29) Run Def great vs ECU, run off a big concern
(7/28) Off only 5 portals, 3 OL & 2 TE, good sign?
(5/29) Same 3-3-5 Def, added 4 DE's (G5) for rush
(5/29) DB exp is mostly portal adds, LBs OK but depth?
(5/29) Tons of close lines, lots of variance in '25
(5/29) New OC is Kurt Roper, on staff since '19. Meh
(5/29) QB Bailey a good find as Fr in a bad '24 season
(5/29) WRs meh LY, some depth. TE Joly a weapon.

NC State Highlights
NC State in Undefeated

NC State has a good run defense (#13)
NC State Defensive Line is very good (#21)
NC State has a great TO Margin (#11)
NC State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

NC State Deficiencies
NC State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#133)
NC State does not Sack the QB (#122)
NC State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#127)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatPITTNCST
OverallOver#11#18
OffenseOff#56#28
DefenseDef#3#28
Special TeamsST#16#57
PassingPass#87#11
RushingRush#36#27
Run BlockRBLK#40#73
Pass BlockPBLK#37#64
Route RunningWR Rt#51#23
TacklingTkl#9#48
Run DefenseR Def#4#36
Pass Rush DefPRush#3#28
Coverage DefCov#28#25

Weather Forecast
Playing in Acrisure Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: NCST | PITT
Depth Chart: NCST | PITT
Rosters: NCST | PITT
(#51) Pittsburgh Info
Power Rating: 13.115 #51
Offense Rating: 15.01 #53
Defense Rating: 3.78 #49
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.0 #37
Offense SP+ Rating: 33.0 #33
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #46
Talent Rating: 786.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #56
Expected Record: 6.2 - 5.8

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 46%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.83 PPO
Avg Run Success 48%
Avg Pass Success 46%
Avg OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 30%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.46 PPO
Great Run Def Success 29%
Good Pass Def Success 31%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Pittsburgh has lost 5 straight
Pittsburgh has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (2 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Pittsburgh Notes
(9/13) Run Off awful vs WVU, Red Zone issues too
(7/13) Look better TY esp Off, sleeper ACC pick
(7/13) WR #2+3 back, 3 portals. Shorter, but deep
(7/13) OL 3/5 back, 4 portals, top 3rd ACC line?
(7/13) Def decent LY, 8 portals, 3 DEs to find pass rush
(6/14) RB Reid one of ACC best. Must find depth
(6/14) OC Bell an upgrade LY, DC Bates improved D.
(4/4) LB K. Louis/R. Biles both top 10 LBs via PFF
(3/21) QB Holstein back, was OK LY. Same OC
(3/21) Don't know what Pitt wants to be in NIL era

Pittsburgh Highlights
Pittsburgh is Undefeated at Home
Pittsburgh is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

Pittsburgh offense is explosive (#25)
Pittsburgh Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Pittsburgh has a really good defense (#13)
Pittsburgh has a good run defense (#12)
Pittsburgh has a good pass defense (#23)
Pittsburgh Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#14)
Pittsburgh Defensive Line is very good (#13)
Pittsburgh Front 7 is disruptive (#8)

Pittsburgh Deficiencies
Pittsburgh Can Not Run the Ball (#114)
Pittsburgh Commits a Lot of Penalties (#109)
Pittsburgh has a bad red zone defense (#105)


  
NC State's OC Kurt Roper
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
CJ Bailey638971%719518.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Daylan Smothers6338036.057
CJ Bailey218434.030
Jayden Scott196603.513
Will Wilson4902.34
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Wesley Grimes9173119.248
Noah Rogers8109113.627
Terrell Anderson9107011.930
Teddy Hoffmann699016.550

View NC State's Full Roster
NC State's DC D. J. Eliot
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sean Brown314021
Caden Fordham262101
Brody Barnhardt151000
Cian Slone (Tr)141030
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caden Fordham262101
Travali Price52110
Sean Brown314021
Coleson Fields10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devon Marshall130002
Sean Brown314021
Sabastian Harsh (Tr)144031

Pittsburgh's OC Kade Bell
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Eli Holstein588866%822939.3
Cole Gonzales (Tr)81650%87105.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Desmond Reid2414215.953
Juelz Goff218424.017
Eli Holstein255012.031
Ja'Kyrian Turner103513.59
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Raphael Williams13285321.967
Bryce Yates4143135.868
Kenny Johnson886110.820
Cataurus Hicks (Tr)784212.022

View Pittsburgh's Full Roster
Pittsburgh's DC Randy Bates
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rasheem Biles293032
Cruce Brookins230002
Kyle Louis194200
Braylan Lovelace181011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kyle Louis194200
Joseph Zelinsky42210
Zach Crothers153210
Blaine Spires (Tr)103220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rasheem Biles293032
Cruce Brookins230002
Braylan Lovelace181011