Memphis at Georgia State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Memphis logo Memphis Tigers at Georgia State PanthersGeorgia State logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Memphis -14.5 (57.5) (-600)  Open: -14.0 | 54.0
Memphis 38 - Georgia State: 16

 
Tigers (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Ryan Silverfield (41 - 21)
Avg Score : 33 - 23 (35 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#38)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 7)
Our Line: Memphis -25.5  (SP+ MEM -33.5)
Projected Score: MEM: 42 - GAST: 16 (58)
MEM Win prob: 85% | Cover: 47%
MEM Travel: 332 miles, 1 hrs behind
Panthers (1 - 11) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Dell McGee (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 20 - 38 (22 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#133)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
Memphis's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Memphis vs Chattanooga-30.555.5W 45 - 10UY
Sat 9/6 Memphis at Georgia State-14.557.5W 38 - 16UY
Sat 9/13 Memphis at Troy-4.551.5W 28 - 7UY
Sat 9/20 Memphis vs Arkansas+7.059.5W 32 - 31OY
Sat 9/27 Memphis at Florida Atlantic-14.062.5W 55 - 26OY
Sat 10/4 Memphis vs Tulsa-21.054.5W 45 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Memphis at UAB-23.559.5L 24 - 31UN
Sat 10/25 Memphis vs South Florida+3.558.5W 34 - 31OY
Fri 10/31 Memphis at Rice-13.548.5W 38 - 14OY
Fri 11/7 Memphis vs Tulane-3.053.5L 32 - 38ON
Sat 11/15 Memphis at East Carolina+3.056.5L 27 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/27 Memphis vs Navy-3.557.5L 17 - 28UN
Fri 12/19 Memphis vs NC State+6.056.5L 7 - 31UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Memphis's Schedule
Georgia State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Georgia State at Ole Miss+38.562.5L 7 - 63ON
Sat 9/6 Georgia State vs Memphis+14.557.5L 16 - 38UN
Sat 9/13 Georgia State vs Murray State-31.563.5W 37 - 21UN
Sat 9/20 Georgia State at Vanderbilt+27.553.5L 21 - 70ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Georgia State vs James Madison+19.552.5L 7 - 14UY
Sat 10/11 Georgia State vs App State+3.055.5L 20 - 41ON
Sat 10/18 Georgia State at Georgia Southern+6.558.5L 24 - 41ON
Thu 10/23 Georgia State vs South Alabama+5.554.5L 31 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Georgia State at Coastal Carolina+7.056.5L 27 - 40ON
Sat 11/15 Georgia State vs Marshall+9.559.5L 18 - 30UN
Sat 11/22 Georgia State at Troy+9.551.0L 19 - 31UN
Sat 11/29 Georgia State at Old Dominion+29.058.5L 10 - 27UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Georgia State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MEM#25 (.26)45% (40)32.549% (16)3.33 (12)18342% (69)2284.41 (23)#91 (.19)42% (65)23.239% (32)45% (108)4 (100)48.10.91.5
GAST#88 (.14)41% (90)19.843% (74)2.89 (78)12440% (88)2543.39 (100)#126 (.27)46% (122)37.845% (104)47% (122)4.45 (128)67.91.40.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MEM#23 (.27)44% (57)46% (40)3.27 (31)17541% (71)2704.66 (14)#87 (.19)40% (47)40% (45)40% (62)4.05 (96)480.61.9
GAST#92 (.15)41% (90)42% (92)2.94 (86)13441% (79)2563.85 (76)#121 (.28)48% (123)49% (119)46% (118)4.42 (120)49.11.61.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MEM Offense1332.53545%4.410.9234121832285.148%50%49%42%14%.26
GAST Defense1237.830.345.5%4.450.5 - - - - - 56%42%45%47%13%.27
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MEM Defense1323.220.841.6%41.5 - - - - - 50%49%39%45%17%.19
GAST Offense1219.821.541%3.391.4203781242544.143%56%43%40%16%.14

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Memphis1331:4222.742%56%5.548.10.91.561.6329.4
Georgia State1230:1019.639%44%8.667.91.40.54.81.5025.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MEM Offense1348% (78)49% (16)36.2183.25.134 (1).3 (6)3.33 (12)75% (49)10% (98)1.17 (7)
GAST Defense1256% (128)45% (104) - - - - .18 (113)3.17 (114)77% (110)8% (120)0.97 (75)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MEM Defense1350% (74)39% (32) - - - - .04 (34)2.58 (14)73% (85)11% (30)0.99 (87)
GAST Offense1243% (119)43% (74)30.5123.84.19 (122).06 (94)2.89 (78)63% (119)9% (69)0.87 (111)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MEM Offense1350% (60)42% (69)21.431.7228.47.210.717 (86)9 (88).23 (78)1.5 (94)32% (83)32% (43).34 (55)4% (12)2.1 (43)
GAST Defense1242% (8)47% (122) - - - - - - 3 (123).43 (130)1.6 (109)28% (125)37% (134).48 (131)5% (104)2 (73)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MEM Defense1349% (71)45% (108) - - - - - - 12 (6).37 (116)1.6 (105)32% (61)30% (79).37 (106)6% (49)2.1 (110)
GAST Offense1256% (16)40% (88)2439.6254.46.410.622 (42)11 (60).24 (71)1.6 (58)33% (107)32% (50).32 (62)7% (102)2 (76)

Memphis's Power Ratings
Memphis's Power Rating: 8.62  #45
Memphis's Offense Rating: 17.81  #24
Memphis's Defense Rating: 9.19  #74
2025 Talent Rating: 776.00  #60
Blue Chip Ratio: 6%  #49
Memphis's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 4.4
Memphis's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.5  #34
Memphis's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.5  #16
Memphis's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5  #72

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Memphis: 8.62   Georgia State: -16.44

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Memphis: 9.5   Georgia State: -23.8




Georgia State's Power Ratings
Georgia State's Power Rating: -16.44  #126
Georgia State's Offense Rating: 4.33  #97
Georgia State's Defense Rating: 18.41  #126
2025 Talent Rating: 596.00  #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #56
Georgia State's 2025 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Georgia State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -23.8  #133
Georgia State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.8  #117
Georgia State's Defense SP+ Rating: 41.8  #134

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Memphis Scoring
Offense: 32.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 35
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.8

Memphis's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Memphis 42
Georgia State 16


Total Points: 58

Based on Last 4 Games
Memphis 38
Georgia State 24

Total Points: 62

Based on Entire Season
Memphis 34
Georgia State 22

Total Points: 56
Georgia State Scoring
Offense: 19.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.5
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 30.3

Georgia State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 9 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06Georgia State16Memphis38Memphis -14.5Memphis57.5Under
201809/14Memphis59Georgia State22Memphis -28.5Memphis63.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Georgia State001 Overs
Memphis221 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 11 - 11 - 00 - 1
Road Teams1 - 11 - 11 - 00 - 1

(#45) MEM at (#126) GAST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMEMGAST
Power RatePwr #45 #126
SP+SP+ #34 #133
Perf GradeGrade #39 #128
OffenseOff #39 #129
DefenseDef #55 #114
Spec TeamsST #62 #81
TalentTal #60 #94
Blue ChipsBC% #49 #56
Memphis Notes
(12/18) Hired OC Kevin Decker (ODU's OC)
(12/11) Hired HC Charles Huff (So Miss/Marshall).
(11/28) 3 game losing streak to finish. Silverfield a poor job
(11/16) 2 L's when CFP was in sights. Finish vs Navy
(10/25) QB Brendon Lewis will play vs S. Florida
(10/19) Def torched by UAB, Off sputtered w/o QB Lewis
(10/10) Def much better than anticipated, 2nd in AAC in YPP
(9/24) Off run game mauled Arkansas, QB Lewis a runner
(9/19) Run heavy Off so far, took care of cupcakes
(8/13) Real $$, biggest NIL spender in the G5
(8/13) QB Lewis a weapon (Nev), wins QB1 job in fall
(6/17) 4* QB AJ Hill was the only blue chip QB to G5
Memphis Injury Report
Georgia State Notes
(10/23) QB Cameran Brown taken over for TJ Finley (awful)
(10/23) This defense is shameful, DC Travis Pearson no good
(10/20) Most penalized team in CFB, have had 4 gms of 13+
(10/12) Too many paycheck games & now killed by App? Oof
(9/30) 3 paycheck games + FCS, know nothing about GSU
(8/1) DBs full rebuild, could struggle badly early
(8/1) RB all new, decent portal adds, have depth
(8/1) OL poor LY, 1/5 back. 8 portals, 4 P4. Jump?
(8/1) Def poor LY, only 9 portals? Can't stop run
(8/1) Probably a year away from bowl, 3-4 win team
(7/13) HC McGee crootin big, #1 SBC class
(5/2) WR 3 portals, retaining Ted Hurst a huge win
Georgia State Injury Report
Memphis on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
MEM OffGAST Def
Perf GradePerf #39 #114
SuccessSuc #40 #122
ExplosiveExp #32 #81
PPAPPA #25 #126
PowerPwr #24 #126
SP+SP+ #16 #134
Pts POPPO #23 #128
HavocHav #51 #121
Memphis Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
MEM OffGAST Def
Run GameRun #29 #100
Run SuccessRSuc #16 #104
Run ExplRExp #7 #75
PPAExp #6 #113
Run BlockR Blk #23 -
OL YdsOLY #12 #114
Stuff RateStuff #75 #126
TackleTak -  #46
Memphis Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
MEM OffGAST Def
Pass GamePass #50 #100
Pass SuccessPSuc #69 #122
Pass ExplPExl #94 #109
PPAExp #78 #130
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #32 #108
F7 HavocF7 #98 #120
DB HavocDB #12 #104
Georgia State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatGAST OffMEM Def
Perf GradePerf #129 #55
SuccessSuc #90 #65
ExplosiveExp #64 #108
PPAPPA #88 #91
PowerPwr #97 #74
SP+SP+ #117 #72
Pts POPPO #100 #100
HavocHav #79 #34
Georgia State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
GAST OffMEM Def
Run GameRun #124 #19
Run SuccessRSuc #74 #32
Run ExplRExp #111 #87
PPAExp #94 #34
Run BlockR Blk #135 -
OL YdsOLY #78 #14
Stuff RateStuff #96 #32
TackleTak -  #94
Georgia State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatGAST OffMEM Def
Pass GamePass #58 #110
Pass SuccessPSuc #88 #108
Pass ExplPExl #58 #105
PPAExp #71 #116
Pass Block/RushP Blk #130 #124
F7 HavocF7 #69 #30
DB HavocDB #102 #49
Program Comparison
GAST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

MEM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Georgia State Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 79° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 2
Memphis 14.5 (57.5)
Memphis won at Georgia State this year (38-16)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
MEM's OC Tim Cramsey (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brendon Lewis (Tr)25336869%26731677.3
AJ Hill193259%223117.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Sutton Smith10266976.684
Brendon Lewis (Tr)15266494.427
Gregory DeRosiers9956375.790
Frank Peasant (Tr)6227574.419
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cortez Braham63889814.173
Jamari Hawkins38623216.457
Marcello Bussey27287010.640
Brady Kluse22240210.925

View Memphis's Full Roster

MEM's DC Jordon Hankins (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sam Brumfield (Tr)9011520
Kamari Wilson (Tr)787114
Chris Bracy (Tr)717019
Drue Watts (Tr)69114102
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sam Brumfield (Tr)9011520
Drue Watts (Tr)69114102
Everett Roussaw Jr. (Tr)587314
William Whitlow Jr.316325
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Bracy (Tr)717019
Jeremiah Jordan192106
Omarion Cooper (Tr)391006

GAST's OC Hue Jackson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
TJ Finley (Tr)12720163%1244676.2
Cameran Brown (Tr)11918465%12591316.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Simmons9754325.692
Cameran Brown (Tr)6128444.722
Rashad Amos (Tr)6326724.229
Branson Robinson (Tr)4614813.247
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ted Hurst711004614.170
Javon Robinson (Tr)58599410.346
Grant Hollier21288413.752
Jordan Simmons2819216.932

View Georgia State's Full Roster

GAST's DC Travis Pearson (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josiah Robinson968211
Jaylen Jones665001
Kedrick Walker577310
D-Icey Hopkins513105
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jartavius Flounoy226311
Kedrick Walker577310
Josiah Robinson968211
Richard Kramer (Tr)132200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bernard Causey III (Tr)192106
D-Icey Hopkins513105
Jordan Huff (Tr)471004