Memphis at Georgia State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Memphis logo Memphis Tigers at Georgia State PanthersGeorgia State logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Memphis -14.5 (57.5) (-600)  Open: -14.0 | 54.0
Memphis 38 - Georgia State: 16

 
Tigers (3 - 0) (3 - 0 - 0)
Coach Ryan Silverfield (41 - 21)
Avg Score : 37 - 11 (33 - 12 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11 - 1 (#1)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 7)
Our Line: Memphis -33.5   (SP+ MEM -30.5)
Projected Score: MEM: 44 - GAST: 11 (55)
MEM Win prob: 85% | Cover: 47%
MEM Travel: 332 miles, 1 hrs behind
Panthers (1 - 2) (0 - 3 - 0)
Coach Dell McGee (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 20 - 41 (27 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#128)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
Memphis's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Memphis vs Chattanooga-30.555.5W 45 - 10UY
Sat 9/6 Memphis at Georgia State-14.557.5W 38 - 16UY
Sat 9/13 Memphis at Troy-4.551.5W 28 - 7UY
Sat 9/20 Memphis vs Arkansas+7.063.5
Sat 9/27 Memphis at Florida Atlantic-21.5
Sat 10/4 Memphis vs Tulsa-29
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Memphis at UAB-27
Sat 10/25 Memphis vs South Florida-14
Fri 10/31 Memphis at Rice-23
Fri 11/7 Memphis vs Tulane-13.5
Sat 11/15 Memphis at East Carolina-11
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/27 Memphis vs Navy-16

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Memphis's Schedule
Georgia State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Georgia State at Ole Miss+38.562.5L 7 - 63ON
Sat 9/6 Georgia State vs Memphis+14.557.5L 16 - 38UN
Sat 9/13 Georgia State vs Murray State-31.563.5W 37 - 21UN
Sat 9/20 Georgia State at Vanderbilt+26.553.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Georgia State vs James Madison+21.5
Sat 10/11 Georgia State vs App State+8
Sat 10/18 Georgia State at Georgia Southern+5
Thu 10/23 Georgia State vs South Alabama+12.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Georgia State at Coastal Carolina+9
Sat 11/15 Georgia State vs Marshall+4.5
Sat 11/22 Georgia State at Troy+16
Sat 11/29 Georgia State at Old Dominion+22.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Georgia State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MEM#47 (.28)49% (37)3750% (39)3.8 (9)21847% (44)2035.12 (27)#21 (-.03)34% (31)1131% (15)37% (50)1.89 (12)550.71.3
GAST#94 (.13)37% (116)2030% (131)2.11 (128)13542% (76)2321.17 (134)#128 (.39)54% (133)40.753% (128)59% (134)4.88 (117)80.71.71
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MEM#23 (.27)44% (57)46% (40)3.27 (31)17541% (71)2704.66 (14)#87 (.19)40% (47)40% (45)40% (62)4.05 (96)480.61.9
GAST#92 (.15)41% (90)42% (92)2.94 (86)13441% (79)2563.85 (76)#121 (.28)48% (123)49% (119)46% (118)4.42 (120)49.11.61.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MEM Offense3373348.6%5.120.7224212182035.659%40%50%47%12%.28
GAST Defense340.729.554%4.881 - - - - - 57%41%53%59%16%.39
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MEM Defense31111.534.3%1.891.3 - - - - - 43%56%31%37%24%-.03
GAST Offense32026.536.6%1.171.7163681352324.347%53%30%42%20%.13

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Memphis331:4022.347%75%5.7550.71.39.33228.4
Georgia State330:4815.732%56%1080.71.716.71.7026.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MEM Offense359% (21)50% (39)39.3218.35.611 (8).3 (31)3.8 (9)83% (28)9% (80)1.09 (41)
GAST Defense357% (113)53% (128) - - - - .41 (133)3.42 (127)90% (123)10% (61)1.14 (105)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MEM Defense343% (24)31% (15) - - - - -.18 (10)2.21 (22)44% (15)16% (7)0.96 (74)
GAST Offense347% (88)30% (131)31.3135.34.32 (109)-.18 (134)2.11 (128)56% (118)12% (117)1.2 (29)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MEM Offense340% (117)47% (44)18.325202.78.111.12 (102)1 (23).35 (60)1.5 (65)27% (35)31% (69).25 (89)3% (16)2.2 (38)
GAST Defense341% (17)59% (134) - - - - - - 2 (56).61 (130)1.6 (76)23% (133)42% (129).41 (99)6% (73)1.7 (42)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MEM Defense356% (115)37% (50) - - - - - - 4 (12).11 (39)1.6 (84)40% (10)29% (71).34 (88)7% (38)2.2 (106)
GAST Offense353% (47)42% (76)20.732232.37.311.26 (34)4 (121).41 (43)1.8 (14)35% (109)33% (54).42 (50)7% (114)2.6 (10)

Memphis's Power Ratings
Memphis's Power Rating: 18.72 #32
Memphis's Offense Rating: 19.59 #34
Memphis's Defense Rating: 0.87 #30
2025 Talent Rating: 776.00 #60
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #49
Memphis's 2025 Expected Record: 11.0 - 1.0
Memphis's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.9 #29
Memphis's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #14
Memphis's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #55

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Memphis: 18.72   Georgia State: -18.005

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Memphis: 11.9   Georgia State: -18.8




Georgia State's Power Ratings
Georgia State's Power Rating: -18.005 #135
Georgia State's Offense Rating: 2.00 #121
Georgia State's Defense Rating: 26.96 #132
2025 Talent Rating: 596.00 #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #56
Georgia State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Georgia State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -18.8 #127
Georgia State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.5 #108
Georgia State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.1 #133

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Memphis Scoring
Offense: 37 PPG
Offense on Road: 33
Defense: 11 PPG
Defense on Road: 11.5

Memphis's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Memphis 44
Georgia State 11


Total Points: 55

Georgia State Scoring
Offense: 20 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.5
Defense: 40.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 29.5

Georgia State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06Georgia State16Memphis38MemphisMemphis -14.5Memphis57.5Under
201809/14Memphis59Georgia State22MemphisMemphis -28.5Memphis63.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Georgia State001 Overs
Memphis221 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 11 - 11 - 00 - 1
Road Teams1 - 11 - 11 - 00 - 1

(#32) Memphis Info
Power Rating: 18.72 #32
Offense Rating: 19.59 #34
Defense Rating: 0.87 #30
Overall SP+ Rating: 11.9 #29
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #14
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #55
Talent Rating: 776.00 #60
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #49
Expected Record: 11.0 - 1.0

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 40%
Good Offense Success Rate of 49%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 5.12 PPO
Good Run Success 50%
Good Pass Success 47%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 34%
Great in Scoring Position 1.89 PPO
Great Run Def Success 31%
Avg Pass Def Success 37%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position

Memphis has won 1 straight
Record on Road: 2 - 0 (2 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Memphis Notes
(8/13) Real $$, biggest NIL spender in the G5
(8/13) QB Lewis a weapon (Nev), wins QB1 job in fall
(6/17) 4* QB AJ Hill was the only blue chip QB to G5
(5/23) Memphis was 5-1 in 1 score games LY
(5/11) 61% of OL exp comes from portal adds
(4/12) RB looks very thin. No portals after Amos left
(4/8) OL 2/5 back, 6 portals. X. Hill (OT) left in spring
(3/22) WR rebuild. 3 portals, watch Caldwell (FCS)
(3/22) Def replacing most, 17 portals added, 8 DBs
(3/22) Near last in return prod, over 50% roster new

Memphis Highlights
Memphis is Undefeated vs Spread
Memphis in Undefeated

Memphis has Really Good Running Game (#20)
Memphis has a top Offensive Line (#9)
Memphis offense is good in red zone (#27)
Memphis offense is good on 3rd downs
Memphis does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#14)

Memphis Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Memphis defense is really good in red zone (#12)
Memphis has a good run defense (#15)
Memphis Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#11)
Memphis Defensive Line is very good (#22)
Memphis Front 7 is disruptive (#7)
Memphis has a great TO Margin (#28)
Memphis defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

Memphis Deficiencies

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatGASTMEM
OverallOver#93#33
OffenseOff#80#38
DefenseDef#93#39
Special TeamsST#104#78
PassingPass#49#24
RushingRush#74#72
Run BlockRBLK#96#28
Pass BlockPBLK#104#36
Route RunningWR Rt#44#51
TacklingTkl#59#116
Run DefenseR Def#93#23
Pass Rush DefPRush#95#66
Coverage DefCov#84#38

Rematch from Week 2
Memphis 14.5 (57.5)
Memphis won at Georgia State this year (38-16)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Georgia State Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MEM | GAST
Depth Chart: MEM | GAST
Rosters: MEM | GAST
(#135) Georgia State Info
Power Rating: -18.005 #135
Offense Rating: 2.00 #121
Defense Rating: 26.96 #132
Overall SP+ Rating: -18.8 #127
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.5 #108
Defense SP+ Rating: 40.1 #133
Talent Rating: 596.00 #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #56
Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 37%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 1.17 PPO
Awful Run Success 30%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Poor OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 54%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.88 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 53%
Awful Pass Def Success 59%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Georgia State has lost 1 straight
Record at home: 1 - 1 (0 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

Georgia State Notes
(8/1) DBs full rebuild, could struggle badly early
(8/1) RB all new, decent portal adds, have depth
(8/1) OL poor LY, 1/5 back. 8 portals, 4 P4. Jump?
(8/1) Def poor LY, only 9 portals? Can't stop run
(8/1) Probably a year away from bowl, 3-4 win team
(7/13) HC McGee crootin big, #1 SBC class
(5/2) WR 3 portals, retaining Ted Hurst a huge win
(3/24) QB Veilleux back, JAG. 2 portals added.
(3/24) New OC Jackson former Browns HC (NFL)
(3/24) New DC Pearson 1st time FBS DC.

Georgia State Highlights
Georgia State offense is explosive (#7)

Georgia State Deficiencies
Georgia State has a really bad Offense
Georgia State has a bad TO Margin (#107)
Georgia State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#133)
Georgia State throws a Lot of Interceptions (#121)
Georgia State offense is really bad (#116)
Georgia State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#131)
Georgia State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#134)
Georgia State run game is really bad (#131)
Georgia State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Georgia State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Georgia State has a bad defense (#133)
Georgia State Does Not Stuff Runs (#127)
Georgia State has a bad defensive line (#127)
Georgia State has a bad red zone defense (#117)


  
Memphis's OC Tim Cramsey
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brendon Lewis (Tr)557573%608218.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Sutton Smith4124746.050
Brendon Lewis (Tr)3219025.922
Frank Peasant (Tr)1611617.318
Makari Bodiford216333.09
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jamari Hawkins9176019.650
Cortez Braham9153117.030
Sutton Smith75207.439
Jadon Thompson (Tr)246023.040

View Memphis's Full Roster
Memphis's DC Jordon Hankins
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sam Brumfield (Tr)174310
William Whitlow Jr.153120
Everett Roussaw Jr. (Tr)155212
Demarco Ward (Tr)140010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sam Brumfield (Tr)174310
Everett Roussaw Jr. (Tr)155212
Jalen Bell (Tr)113210
Drue Watts (Tr)142142
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Omarion Cooper (Tr)90003
Everett Roussaw Jr. (Tr)155212
Drue Watts (Tr)142142

Georgia State's OC Hue Jackson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
TJ Finley (Tr)324768%351137.5
Cameran Brown (Tr)253768%257406.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rashad Amos (Tr)2614015.429
Branson Robinson (Tr)187904.447
Cameran Brown (Tr)135814.522
TJ Peyton455013.849
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ted Hurst18275215.352
Javon Robinson (Tr)10146214.644
Leo Blackburn (Tr)75818.321
Camden Overton (Tr)552110.420

View Georgia State's Full Roster
Georgia State's DC Travis Pearson
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josiah Robinson204100
Jordan Huff (Tr)151002
Deuce Fillmore140001
Deuce Walker130000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josiah Robinson204100
Alex Mullings21100
D-Icey Hopkins103100
Marlin Dean (Tr)103120
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Damaine Wilson110003
Jordan Huff (Tr)151002
Bernard Causey III (Tr)62102