Tulsa at Memphis - 2025 Matchup Preview
Tulsa logo Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Memphis TigersMemphis logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (8:00 PM EDT)
Memphis -21 (54.5) (-1650)  Open: -21.0
Memphis 45 - Tulsa: 7  (American Athletic)

 
Golden Hurricane (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Tre Lamb (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (19 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
MEM is playing their 6th straight game
TLSA is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Memphis -20  (SP+ MEM -21)

Projected Score: TLSA: 17 - MEM: 37 (53)
MEM Win prob: 92% | Cover: 53%
TLSA Travel: 342 miles
Tigers (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Ryan Silverfield (41 - 21)
Avg Score : 33 - 23 (34 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#38)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 5)
 
Tulsa's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Tulsa vs Abilene Christian-5.059.5W 35 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 Tulsa at New Mexico State-3.052.5L 14 - 21UN
Sat 9/13 Tulsa vs Navy+14.052.5L 23 - 42ON
Fri 9/19 Tulsa at Oklahoma State+10.554.5W 19 - 12UY
Sat 9/27 Tulsa vs Tulane+14.552.5L 14 - 31UN
Sat 10/4 Tulsa at Memphis+21.054.5L 7 - 45UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/16 Tulsa at East Carolina+16.554.5L 27 - 41OY
Sat 10/25 Tulsa vs Temple+4.552.5L 37 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Tulsa at Florida Atlantic+4.560.5L 21 - 40ON
Sat 11/15 Tulsa vs Oregon State-1.550.5W 31 - 14UY
Sat 11/22 Tulsa at Army+10.043.5W 26 - 25OY
Sat 11/29 Tulsa vs UAB-9.056.5L 24 - 31UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Tulsa's Schedule
Memphis's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Memphis vs Chattanooga-30.555.5W 45 - 10UY
Sat 9/6 Memphis at Georgia State-14.557.5W 38 - 16UY
Sat 9/13 Memphis at Troy-4.551.5W 28 - 7UY
Sat 9/20 Memphis vs Arkansas+7.059.5W 32 - 31OY
Sat 9/27 Memphis at Florida Atlantic-14.062.5W 55 - 26OY
Sat 10/4 Memphis vs Tulsa-21.054.5W 45 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Memphis at UAB-23.559.5L 24 - 31UN
Sat 10/25 Memphis vs South Florida+3.558.5W 34 - 31OY
Fri 10/31 Memphis at Rice-13.548.5W 38 - 14OY
Fri 11/7 Memphis vs Tulane-3.053.5L 32 - 38ON
Sat 11/15 Memphis at East Carolina+3.056.5L 27 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/27 Memphis vs Navy-3.557.5L 17 - 28UN
Fri 12/19 Memphis vs NC State+6.056.5L 7 - 31UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Memphis's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TLSA#104 (.11)40% (97)23.242% (86)2.87 (81)17638% (104)2233.34 (104)#61 (.15)43% (82)28.942% (64)44% (99)3.78 (77)38.21.60.9
MEM#25 (.26)45% (40)32.549% (16)3.33 (12)18342% (69)2284.41 (23)#91 (.19)42% (65)23.239% (32)45% (108)4 (100)48.10.91.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TLSA#124 (.06)34% (131)35% (128)2.88 (97)15133% (126)2393.54 (100)#127 (.31)42% (75)38% (23)46% (115)4.7 (130)511.91.3
MEM#23 (.27)44% (57)46% (40)3.27 (31)17541% (71)2704.66 (14)#87 (.19)40% (47)40% (45)40% (62)4.05 (96)480.61.9



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TLSA Offense1223.21940.4%3.341.6223991762234.451%47%42%38%17%.11
MEM Defense1323.224.241.6%41.5 - - - - - 50%49%39%45%17%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TLSA Defense1228.930.742.5%3.780.9 - - - - - 56%43%42%44%13%.15
MEM Offense1332.534.245%4.410.9234121832285.148%50%49%42%14%.26

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Tulsa1228:3322.238%57%5.138.21.60.95.31.9027.4
Memphis1331:4222.742%56%5.548.10.91.561.6329.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TLSA Offense1251% (57)42% (86)40.41764.418 (107).05 (102)2.87 (81)60% (127)11% (112)1.03 (47)
MEM Defense1350% (74)39% (32) - - - - .04 (34)2.58 (14)73% (85)11% (30)0.99 (87)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TLSA Defense1256% (127)42% (64) - - - - .06 (48)2.92 (76)67% (36)9% (99)0.94 (58)
MEM Offense1348% (78)49% (16)36.2183.25.134 (1).3 (6)3.33 (12)75% (49)10% (98)1.17 (7)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TLSA Offense1247% (82)38% (104)20.134.1222.56.511.115 (86)10 (108).15 (114)1.5 (104)32% (79)28% (88).26 (88)6% (78)1.9 (105)
MEM Defense1349% (71)45% (108) - - - - - - 12 (6).37 (116)1.6 (105)32% (61)30% (79).37 (106)6% (49)2.1 (110)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TLSA Defense1243% (14)44% (99) - - - - - - 7 (55).28 (86)1.5 (53)29% (115)31% (91).28 (67)4% (131)1.8 (15)
MEM Offense1350% (60)42% (69)21.431.7228.47.210.717 (86)9 (88).23 (78)1.5 (94)32% (83)32% (43).34 (55)4% (12)2.1 (43)

Tulsa's Power Ratings
Tulsa's Power Rating: -5.71  #90
Tulsa's Offense Rating: 2.30  #113
Tulsa's Defense Rating: 8.01  #69
2025 Talent Rating: 628.00  #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Tulsa's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Tulsa's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.2  #110
Tulsa's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.7  #108
Tulsa's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.4  #107

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Tulsa: -5.71   Memphis: 11.56

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Tulsa: -11.2   Memphis: 9.5




Memphis's Power Ratings
Memphis's Power Rating: 11.56  #45
Memphis's Offense Rating: 17.81  #24
Memphis's Defense Rating: 9.19  #74
2025 Talent Rating: 776.00  #60
Blue Chip Ratio: 6  #49
Memphis's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 4.4
Memphis's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.5  #34
Memphis's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.5  #16
Memphis's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5  #72

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Tulsa Scoring
Offense: 23.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 19
Defense: 28.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.7

Tulsa's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Memphis 37
Tulsa 17


Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Memphis 28
Tulsa 21

Total Points: 50

Based on Entire Season
Memphis 32
Tulsa 22

Total Points: 54
Memphis Scoring
Offense: 32.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.2
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

Memphis's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/04Memphis45Tulsa7Memphis -21Memphis54.5Under
202211/10Memphis26Tulsa10Memphis -7Memphis62.0Under
202110/09Tulsa35Memphis29Tulsa -3Tulsa60.5Over
201910/26Tulsa41Memphis42Memphis -10Tulsa59.5Over
201811/10Memphis47Tulsa21Memphis -16.5Memphis66.0Over
201711/03Tulsa14Memphis41Memphis -14.5Memphis81.0Under
201610/29Memphis30Tulsa59Memphis -7.5Tulsa74.5Over
201510/23Tulsa42Memphis66Memphis -11.5Memphis75.5Over
201410/31Memphis40Tulsa20Memphis -21Tulsa0
201010/02Memphis7Tulsa48
200911/27Tulsa33Memphis30
200610/21Memphis14Tulsa35
200509/24Tulsa37Memphis31
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Memphis755 Overs
Tulsa643 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 65 - 44 - 21 - 2
Road Teams6 - 74 - 52 - 12 - 4

(#90) TLSA at (#45) MEM
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTLSAMEM
Power RatePwr #90 #45
SP+SP+ #110 #34
Perf GradeGrade #57 #39
OffenseOff #99 #39
DefenseDef #16 #55
Spec TeamsST #71 #62
TalentTal #87 #60
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #49
Tulsa Notes
(11/22) Great fight & finish beating Oregon St & Army
(9/19) Physically dominating Ok St up front both sides
(9/19) Aggressive 4th down Off, QB2 Hayes can play
(9/19) Big program win over OK St. Lamb great job
(9/19) QB1 Kirk Francis out vs OK St (concussion)
(5/23) QB Francis, meh LY but was a Fr. Depth??
(5/23) RB rebuild. 4 portals, nothing special looking
(5/23) WR complete rebuild. 5 good looking portals
(5/23) OL bad LY, 1/5 back, 8 portal adds, some exp
(5/23) Def awful LY, return some, 12 meh portals
(5/23) New HC Lamb a fast riser, ETSU LY, G. Webb
(3/24) Roster looks rough, year 0 situation
Tulsa Injury Report
Memphis Notes
(12/18) Hired OC Kevin Decker (ODU's OC)
(12/11) Hired HC Charles Huff (So Miss/Marshall).
(11/28) 3 game losing streak to finish. Silverfield a poor job
(11/16) 2 L's when CFP was in sights. Finish vs Navy
(10/25) QB Brendon Lewis will play vs S. Florida
(10/19) Def torched by UAB, Off sputtered w/o QB Lewis
(10/10) Def much better than anticipated, 2nd in AAC in YPP
(9/24) Off run game mauled Arkansas, QB Lewis a runner
(9/19) Run heavy Off so far, took care of cupcakes
(8/13) Real $$, biggest NIL spender in the G5
(8/13) QB Lewis a weapon (Nev), wins QB1 job in fall
(6/17) 4* QB AJ Hill was the only blue chip QB to G5
Memphis Injury Report
Tulsa on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
TLSA OffMEM Def
Perf GradePerf #99 #55
SuccessSuc #97 #65
ExplosiveExp #60 #108
PPAPPA #104 #91
PowerPwr #113 #74
SP+SP+ #108 #72
Pts POPPO #104 #100
HavocHav #104 #34
Tulsa Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
TLSA OffMEM Def
Run GameRun #37 #19
Run SuccessRSuc #86 #32
Run ExplRExp #47 #87
PPAExp #102 #34
Run BlockR Blk #109 -
OL YdsOLY #81 #14
Stuff RateStuff #125 #32
TackleTak -  #94
Tulsa Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
TLSA OffMEM Def
Pass GamePass #112 #110
Pass SuccessPSuc #104 #108
Pass ExplPExl #104 #105
PPAExp #114 #116
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #103 #124
F7 HavocF7 #112 #30
DB HavocDB #78 #49
Memphis on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatMEM OffTLSA Def
Perf GradePerf #39 #16
SuccessSuc #40 #82
ExplosiveExp #32 #41
PPAPPA #25 #61
PowerPwr #24 #69
SP+SP+ #16 #107
Pts POPPO #23 #77
HavocHav #51 #121
Memphis Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
MEM OffTLSA Def
Run GameRun #29 #13
Run SuccessRSuc #16 #64
Run ExplRExp #7 #58
PPAExp #6 #48
Run BlockR Blk #23 -
OL YdsOLY #12 #76
Stuff RateStuff #75 #79
TackleTak -  #4
Memphis Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatMEM OffTLSA Def
Pass GamePass #50 #36
Pass SuccessPSuc #69 #99
Pass ExplPExl #94 #53
PPAExp #78 #86
Pass Block/RushP Blk #32 #37
F7 HavocF7 #98 #99
DB HavocDB #12 #131
Program Comparison
MEM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

TLSA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 77° - Wind: 12 mph
Rematch from Week 6
Memphis -21.0 (54.5)
Memphis won vs Tulsa this year (45-7)

Previous Matchups
Memphis beat Tulsa in 2022 (26-10)

  
TLSA's OC Ty Darlington (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Baylor Hayes (Tr)18631659%21591266.8
Kirk Francis538860%493345.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dominic Richardson (Tr)212106555.057
Ajay Allen (Tr)9749755.140
Braylin Presley3221516.728
Baylor Hayes (Tr)9518832.024
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brody Foley (Tr)36521714.572
Zion Booker (Tr)4641829.140
Grayson Tempest22272112.451
Zion Steptoe21272013.042

View Tulsa's Full Roster

TLSA's DC Mike Gray (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ray Coney (Tr)1287242
Lento Smith Jr. (Tr)792004
Zach Williams731007
William Alexander661010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J'Dan Burnett (Tr)2810711
Byron Turner Jr. (Tr)147511
Ty Cooper (Tr)257311
Nahki Johnson (Tr)277300
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zach Williams731007
Elijah Green592007
Lento Smith Jr. (Tr)792004

MEM's OC Tim Cramsey (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brendon Lewis (Tr)25336869%26731677.3
AJ Hill193259%223117.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Sutton Smith10266976.684
Brendon Lewis (Tr)15266494.427
Gregory DeRosiers9956375.790
Frank Peasant (Tr)6227574.419
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cortez Braham63889814.173
Jamari Hawkins38623216.457
Marcello Bussey27287010.640
Brady Kluse22240210.925

View Memphis's Full Roster

MEM's DC Jordon Hankins (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sam Brumfield (Tr)9011520
Kamari Wilson (Tr)787114
Chris Bracy (Tr)717019
Drue Watts (Tr)69114102
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sam Brumfield (Tr)9011520
Drue Watts (Tr)69114102
Everett Roussaw Jr. (Tr)587314
William Whitlow Jr.316325
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Bracy (Tr)717019
Jeremiah Jordan192106
Omarion Cooper (Tr)391006