Virginia Cavaliers at NC State Wolfpack
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
NC State -3.0 (53.0) (-150) Open: -3.0 | 55.5
NC State 35 - Virginia: 31
Cavaliers (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (11 - 23)
Avg Score : 45 - 19 (31 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.7 - 4.3 (#48)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 4)
Coach Tony Elliott (11 - 23)
Avg Score : 45 - 19 (31 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.7 - 4.3 (#48)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 4)
NCST 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: NC State -2.5 (SP+ NCST -1)
Projected Score: UVA: 27 - NCST: 30 (57)
NCST Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
UVA Travel: 155 miles
Our Line: NC State -2.5 (SP+ NCST -1)
Projected Score: UVA: 27 - NCST: 30 (57)
NCST Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
UVA Travel: 155 miles
Wolfpack (3 - 0) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (87 - 64)
Avg Score : 31 - 24 (30 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 4.2 (#45)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 4) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 2)
Coach Dave Doeren (87 - 64)
Avg Score : 31 - 24 (30 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 4.2 (#45)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 4) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 2)
| Virginia's 2025 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Sat 8/30 | Virginia vs Coastal Carolina | -12.5 | 57.5 | W 48 - 7 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/6 | Virginia at NC State | +3.0 | 53.0 | L 31 - 35 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/13 | Virginia vs William & Mary | -30.5 | 54.5 | W 55 - 16 | O | Y | |
| Sat 9/20 | Virginia vs Stanford | -15.5 | 49.5 | ||||
| Fri 9/26 | Virginia vs Florida State | +8.5 | |||||
| Sat 10/4 | Virginia at Louisville | +10.5 | |||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/18 | Virginia vs Washington State | -19 | |||||
| Sat 10/25 | Virginia at North Carolina | -4.5 | |||||
| Sat 11/1 | Virginia at California | +2.5 | |||||
| Sat 11/8 | Virginia vs Wake Forest | -9 | |||||
| Sat 11/15 | Virginia at Duke | -1 | |||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 11/29 | Virginia vs Virginia Tech | -16 | |||||
Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Predictions for Virginia's Schedule
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
| NC State's 2025 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Thu 8/28 | NC State vs East Carolina | -12.5 | 58.5 | W 24 - 17 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/6 | NC State vs Virginia | -3.0 | 53.0 | W 35 - 31 | O | Y | |
| Thu 9/11 | NC State at Wake Forest | -7.5 | 52.5 | W 34 - 24 | O | Y | |
| Sat 9/20 | NC State at Duke | +3.0 | 58.5 | ||||
| Sat 9/27 | NC State vs Virginia Tech | -16 | |||||
| Sat 10/4 | NC State vs Campbell | -32 | |||||
| Sat 10/11 | NC State at Notre Dame | +12.5 | |||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/25 | NC State at Pittsburgh | +4.5 | |||||
| Sat 11/1 | NC State vs Georgia Tech | +1.5 | |||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 11/15 | NC State at Miami | +19.5 | |||||
| Fri 11/21 | NC State vs Florida State | +8.5 | |||||
| Sat 11/29 | NC State vs North Carolina | -9.5 | |||||
Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Predictions for NC State's Schedule
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Important Stats (2025)
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVA | #10 (.47) | 51% (26) | 44.7 | 56% (17) | 3.69 (17) | 271 | 47% (45) | 289 | 4.24 (54) | #75 (.14) | 37% (51) | 19.3 | 37% (52) | 37% (48) | 4.45 (104) | 35 | 0.7 | 1 |
| NCST | #56 (.23) | 44% (67) | 31 | 40% (95) | 2.53 (108) | 177 | 48% (39) | 240 | 4.39 (48) | #96 (.19) | 35% (35) | 24 | 30% (13) | 39% (63) | 3.19 (58) | 57.3 | 0.3 | 1 |
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVA | #102 (.13) | 40% (103) | 43% (77) | 3.29 (25) | 133 | 37% (113) | 229 | 3.47 (106) | #116 (.27) | 43% (80) | 44% (77) | 42% (77) | 4.04 (94) | 45.3 | 1.6 | 1.3 | ||
| NCST | #26 (.25) | 45% (36) | 44% (68) | 3.24 (36) | 130 | 47% (20) | 215 | 3.97 (61) | #86 (.19) | 41% (59) | 39% (31) | 43% (87) | 3.78 (67) | 45 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
Overall Stats 2025
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVA Offense | 3 | 44.7 | 31 | 51.1% | 4.24 | 0.7 | 26 | 560 | 271 | 289 | 6.5 | 49% | 50% | 56% | 47% | 11% | .47 |
| NCST Defense | 3 | 24 | 24 | 35% | 3.19 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | 39% | 60% | 30% | 39% | 14% | .19 |
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVA Defense | 3 | 19.3 | 35 | 36.7% | 4.45 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | 55% | 45% | 37% | 37% | 17% | .14 |
| NCST Offense | 3 | 31 | 29.5 | 43.8% | 4.39 | 0.3 | 22 | 416 | 177 | 240 | 4.7 | 55% | 45% | 40% | 48% | 18% | .23 |
Additional Stats 2025
| Teams | Games | Possession Time | 1st Downs PG | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Penalties PG | Penalty Yds PG | Off TO PG | Def TO PG | TFL PG | Sacks PG | D/ST TDs | Avg Field Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia | 3 | 34:31 | 25.7 | 58% | 44% | 5 | 35 | 0.7 | 1 | 4 | 1.3 | 1 | 33.4 |
| NC State | 3 | 32:35 | 22.3 | 38% | 100% | 6 | 57.3 | 0.3 | 1 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 1 | 28.9 |
Run Game Stats (2025)
Pass Game Stats (2025)
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVA Offense | 3 | 49% (77) | 56% (17) | 42 | 271 | 6.5 | 12 (3) | .55 (2) | 3.69 (17) | 86% (22) | 6% (21) | 1.31 (17) |
| NCST Defense | 3 | 39% (8) | 30% (13) | - | - | - | - | .15 (103) | 2.2 (21) | 64% (51) | 8% (94) | 1.57 (133) |
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVA Defense | 3 | 55% (106) | 37% (52) | - | - | - | - | .1 (91) | 2.71 (63) | 50% (19) | 8% (99) | 1.16 (108) |
| NCST Offense | 3 | 55% (44) | 40% (95) | 37.7 | 176.7 | 4.7 | 6 (49) | .08 (89) | 2.53 (108) | 60% (103) | 12% (117) | 1.08 (45) |
Pass Game Stats (2025)
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVA Offense | 3 | 50% (62) | 47% (45) | 25 | 38 | 289.3 | 7.6 | 11.6 | 4 (72) | 2 (60) | .45 (34) | 1.5 (68) | 30% (62) | 46% (11) | .63 (25) | 6% (79) | 1.6 (117) |
| NCST Defense | 3 | 60% (131) | 39% (63) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 3 (28) | .25 (78) | 1.6 (79) | 37% (26) | 32% (92) | .43 (103) | 5% (80) | 2.1 (84) |
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVA Defense | 3 | 45% (34) | 37% (48) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 (87) | .19 (62) | 1.5 (51) | 33% (68) | 19% (24) | .08 (30) | 9% (18) | 1.6 (24) |
| NCST Offense | 3 | 45% (91) | 48% (39) | 21 | 29.7 | 239.7 | 8.1 | 11.4 | 5 (54) | 1 (23) | .42 (39) | 1.5 (67) | 33% (93) | 32% (66) | .24 (92) | 5% (76) | 1.8 (92) |
Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: 13.69 #42
Virginia's Offense Rating: 20.45 #31
Virginia's Defense Rating: 6.76 #66
2025 Talent Rating: 906.00 #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Virginia's 2025 Expected Record: 7.7 - 4.3
Virginia's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.8 #62
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #56
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #60
Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
Virginia's Power Rating: 13.69 #42
Virginia's Offense Rating: 20.45 #31
Virginia's Defense Rating: 6.76 #66
2025 Talent Rating: 906.00 #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Virginia's 2025 Expected Record: 7.7 - 4.3
Virginia's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.8 #62
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #56
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #60
Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
Power Ratings Matchup
Virginia: 13.69 NC State: 11.2
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Virginia: 3.8 NC State: 5.1
Virginia: 13.69 NC State: 11.2
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Virginia: 3.8 NC State: 5.1
NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 11.2 #46
NC State's Offense Rating: 17.47 #42
NC State's Defense Rating: 5.17 #56
2025 Talent Rating: 838.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #39
NC State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 4.2
NC State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.1 #56
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #40
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #65
Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
NC State's Power Rating: 11.2 #46
NC State's Offense Rating: 17.47 #42
NC State's Defense Rating: 5.17 #56
2025 Talent Rating: 838.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #39
NC State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 4.2
NC State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.1 #56
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #40
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #65
Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
Virginia Scoring
Offense: 44.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 31
Defense: 19.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 35
Virginia's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Offense: 44.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 31
Defense: 19.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 35
Virginia's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
NC State 30
Virginia 27
Total Points: 57
NC State 30
Virginia 27
Total Points: 57
NC State Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.5
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense at Home: 24
NC State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.5
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense at Home: 24
NC State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
| Year | Date | Home | Score | Away | Score | Winner | Spread | Cover | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 09/06 | NC State | 35 | Virginia | 31 | NC State | NC State -3.0 | NC State | 53.0 | Over |
| 2023 | 09/22 | Virginia | 21 | NC State | 24 | NC State | NC State -8.5 | Virginia | 47.5 | Under |
| 2020 | 10/10 | Virginia | 21 | NC State | 38 | NC State | Virginia -7 | NC State | 59.0 | Push |
| 2018 | 09/29 | NC State | 35 | Virginia | 21 | NC State | NC State -5.5 | NC State | 52.5 | Over |
| 2012 | 11/03 | NC State | 6 | Virginia | 33 | Virginia | ||||
| 2011 | 10/22 | Virginia | 14 | NC State | 28 | NC State | ||||
| 2007 | 10/27 | NC State | 29 | Virginia | 24 | NC State | ||||
| 2006 | 10/28 | Virginia | 14 | NC State | 7 | Virginia | ||||
| 2003 | 11/01 | NC State | 51 | Virginia | 37 | NC State | ||||
| 2002 | 11/16 | Virginia | 14 | NC State | 9 | Virginia | ||||
| 2001 | 10/27 | NC State | 24 | Virginia | 0 | NC State | ||||
| 2000 | 11/17 | Virginia | 24 | NC State | 17 | Virginia |
| Team | Wins | Covers | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| NC State | 8 | 3 | 2 Overs |
| Virginia | 4 | 1 | 1 Unders |
| Wins | Covers | Favs | Dogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Teams | 8 - 4 | 3 - 1 | 2 - 1 | 1 - 0 |
| Road Teams | 4 - 8 | 1 - 3 | 0 - 1 | 1 - 2 |
(#42) Virginia Info
Power Rating: 13.69 #42
Offense Rating: 20.45 #31
Defense Rating: 6.76 #66
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.8 #62
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #56
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #60
Talent Rating: 906.00 #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Expected Record: 7.7 - 4.3
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
Good Offense Success Rate of 51%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.24 PPO
Great Run Success 56%
Avg Pass Success 47%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 37%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.45 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 37%
Avg Pass Def Success 37%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Virginia has won 1 straight
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )
Virginia Notes
(6/14) Same HC, OC, DC, S&C coaches for 4 years
(6/2) QB C. Morris (4th school) can sling it & run it
(5/29) QB Morris (N Tex) was #4 pass yds LY, Kaelin #2
(5/29) Off could jump w/ better OL, good RB, QB + WR
(5/29) OL has top 20 exp but 57% via portals.
(5/29) WR rebuild, top 3 are portals, better depth TY
(5/29) OL 4/5 back, took 7 portals. Lots of depth.
(5/29) Def pretty bad LY. Took 16 portals, 9 DBs
(5/21) Talent #'s impressive, 5th in ACC, big jump.
(5/17) Lowest SOS in P4 should lead to bowl
Virginia Highlights
Virginia has Really Good Running Game (#4)
Virginia offense is efficent (#26)
Virginia offense is explosive (#22)
Virginia has a top Offensive Line (#17)
Virginia offense is good on 3rd downs
Virginia does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#11)
Virginia Secondary is very good (#18)
Virginia has a great TO Margin (#28)
Virginia Deficiencies
Virginia has a bad red zone defense (#104)
Power Rating: 13.69 #42
Offense Rating: 20.45 #31
Defense Rating: 6.76 #66
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.8 #62
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #56
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #60
Talent Rating: 906.00 #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Expected Record: 7.7 - 4.3
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
Good Offense Success Rate of 51%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.24 PPO
Great Run Success 56%
Avg Pass Success 47%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 37%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.45 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 37%
Avg Pass Def Success 37%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Virginia has won 1 straight
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )
Virginia Notes
(6/14) Same HC, OC, DC, S&C coaches for 4 years
(6/2) QB C. Morris (4th school) can sling it & run it
(5/29) QB Morris (N Tex) was #4 pass yds LY, Kaelin #2
(5/29) Off could jump w/ better OL, good RB, QB + WR
(5/29) OL has top 20 exp but 57% via portals.
(5/29) WR rebuild, top 3 are portals, better depth TY
(5/29) OL 4/5 back, took 7 portals. Lots of depth.
(5/29) Def pretty bad LY. Took 16 portals, 9 DBs
(5/21) Talent #'s impressive, 5th in ACC, big jump.
(5/17) Lowest SOS in P4 should lead to bowl
Virginia Highlights
Virginia has Really Good Running Game (#4)
Virginia offense is efficent (#26)
Virginia offense is explosive (#22)
Virginia has a top Offensive Line (#17)
Virginia offense is good on 3rd downs
Virginia does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#11)
Virginia Secondary is very good (#18)
Virginia has a great TO Margin (#28)
Virginia Deficiencies
Virginia has a bad red zone defense (#104)
| Performance GradesPerf Grades | ||
|---|---|---|
| CategoryCat | NCST | UVA |
| OverallOver | #18 | #22 |
| OffenseOff | #28 | #24 |
| DefenseDef | #28 | #37 |
| Special TeamsST | #57 | #6 |
| PassingPass | #11 | #25 |
| RushingRush | #27 | #21 |
| Run BlockRBLK | #73 | #40 |
| Pass BlockPBLK | #64 | #56 |
| Route RunningWR Rt | #23 | #29 |
| TacklingTkl | #48 | #82 |
| Run DefenseR Def | #36 | #56 |
| Pass Rush DefPRush | #28 | #28 |
| Coverage DefCov | #25 | #34 |
(#46) NC State Info
Power Rating: 11.2 #46
Offense Rating: 17.47 #42
Defense Rating: 5.17 #56
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.1 #56
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #40
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #65
Talent Rating: 838.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #39
Expected Record: 7.8 - 4.2
Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 44%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.39 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Good Pass Success 48%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 35%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.19 PPO
Great Run Def Success 30%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position
NC State has won 1 straight
NC State has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)
NC State Notes
(9/11) CJ Bailey is a weapon, holds ball long at times
(9/11) Tackling is an issue, Def very inconsistent
(8/29) Run Def great vs ECU, run off a big concern
(7/28) Off only 5 portals, 3 OL & 2 TE, good sign?
(5/29) Same 3-3-5 Def, added 4 DE's (G5) for rush
(5/29) DB exp is mostly portal adds, LBs OK but depth?
(5/29) Tons of close lines, lots of variance in '25
(5/29) New OC is Kurt Roper, on staff since '19. Meh
(5/29) QB Bailey a good find as Fr in a bad '24 season
(5/29) WRs meh LY, some depth. TE Joly a weapon.
NC State Highlights
NC State in Undefeated
NC State is Undefeated at Home
NC State has a good run defense (#13)
NC State Defensive Line is very good (#21)
NC State has a great TO Margin (#11)
NC State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)
NC State Deficiencies
NC State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#133)
NC State does not Sack the QB (#122)
NC State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#127)
Power Rating: 11.2 #46
Offense Rating: 17.47 #42
Defense Rating: 5.17 #56
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.1 #56
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #40
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #65
Talent Rating: 838.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #39
Expected Record: 7.8 - 4.2
Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 44%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.39 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Good Pass Success 48%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 35%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.19 PPO
Great Run Def Success 30%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position
NC State has won 1 straight
NC State has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)
NC State Notes
(9/11) CJ Bailey is a weapon, holds ball long at times
(9/11) Tackling is an issue, Def very inconsistent
(8/29) Run Def great vs ECU, run off a big concern
(7/28) Off only 5 portals, 3 OL & 2 TE, good sign?
(5/29) Same 3-3-5 Def, added 4 DE's (G5) for rush
(5/29) DB exp is mostly portal adds, LBs OK but depth?
(5/29) Tons of close lines, lots of variance in '25
(5/29) New OC is Kurt Roper, on staff since '19. Meh
(5/29) QB Bailey a good find as Fr in a bad '24 season
(5/29) WRs meh LY, some depth. TE Joly a weapon.
NC State Highlights
NC State in Undefeated
NC State is Undefeated at Home
NC State has a good run defense (#13)
NC State Defensive Line is very good (#21)
NC State has a great TO Margin (#11)
NC State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)
NC State Deficiencies
NC State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#133)
NC State does not Sack the QB (#122)
NC State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#127)
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chandler Morris (Tr) | 62 | 89 | 70% | 670 | 4 | 1 | 7.5 |
| Daniel Kaelin (Tr) | 11 | 23 | 48% | 190 | 0 | 1 | 8.3 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J'mari Taylor (Tr) | 33 | 213 | 6 | 6.5 | 66 |
| Noah Vaughn | 22 | 170 | 0 | 7.7 | 54 |
| Harrison Waylee (Tr) | 17 | 169 | 4 | 9.9 | 97 |
| Chandler Morris (Tr) | 9 | 113 | 0 | 12.6 | 42 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trell Harris | 14 | 176 | 0 | 12.6 | 48 |
| Cameron Ross | 12 | 164 | 1 | 13.7 | 46 |
| Jahmal Edrine (Tr) | 11 | 123 | 1 | 11.2 | 18 |
| Kameron Courtney | 7 | 94 | 0 | 13.4 | 30 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landon Danley | 17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| James Jackson | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Devin Neal (Tr) | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Mitchell Melton (Tr) | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Koudelka | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Maddox Marcellus (Tr) | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Devin Neal (Tr) | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Mitchell Melton (Tr) | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donavon Platt (Tr) | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| McKale Boley | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Karnley (Tr) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Bailey | 63 | 89 | 71% | 719 | 5 | 1 | 8.1 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daylan Smothers | 63 | 380 | 3 | 6.0 | 57 |
| CJ Bailey | 21 | 84 | 3 | 4.0 | 30 |
| Jayden Scott | 19 | 66 | 0 | 3.5 | 13 |
| Will Wilson | 4 | 9 | 0 | 2.3 | 4 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley Grimes | 9 | 173 | 1 | 19.2 | 48 |
| Noah Rogers | 8 | 109 | 1 | 13.6 | 27 |
| Terrell Anderson | 9 | 107 | 0 | 11.9 | 30 |
| Teddy Hoffmann | 6 | 99 | 0 | 16.5 | 50 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Brown | 31 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Caden Fordham | 26 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Brody Barnhardt | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cian Slone (Tr) | 14 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caden Fordham | 26 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Travali Price | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Sean Brown | 31 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Coleson Fields | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Marshall | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Sean Brown | 31 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Sabastian Harsh (Tr) | 14 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 |