East Carolina at NC State - 2024 Matchup Preview

East Carolina Pirates vs NC State Wolfpack

Saturday, December 28th 2024 (5:45 PM EST)
NC State -7.5 (61.5) (-298) Open: 0.0
East Carolina 26 - NC State: 21 (Go Bowling Military Bowl)

Pirates (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Houston (24 - 34)
Avg Score : 32 - 27 (29 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: NC State -2.5 (SP+ NCST -5)
Projected Score: ECU: 26 - NCST: 28 (54)
NCST Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
ECU Travel: 239 miles

Wolfpack (6 - 7) (4 - 8 - 1)
Coach Dave Doeren (81 - 58)
Avg Score : 29 - 30 (31 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
ECU Players
NCST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

East Carolina's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	East Carolina vs Norfolk State	-31.5	51.5	W 42 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/7	East Carolina at Old Dominion	+1.5	53.5	W 20 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/14	East Carolina vs App State	-0.5	56.5	L 19 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/21	East Carolina at Liberty	+7.5	55.0	L 24 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/28	East Carolina vs UTSA	-2.0	53.5	W 30 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/5	East Carolina at Charlotte	-9.5	47.5	L 24 - 55	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	East Carolina at Army	+17.5	54.0	L 28 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/26	East Carolina vs Temple	-8.5	48.5	W 56 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/7	East Carolina vs Florida Atlantic	-5.5	58.5	W 49 - 14	O	Y
Thu 11/14	East Carolina at Tulsa	-16.0	63.5	W 38 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/23	East Carolina at North Texas	+2.5	73.5	W 40 - 28	U	Y
Fri 11/29	East Carolina vs Navy	-2.5	54.0	L 20 - 34	U	N
Sat 12/28	East Carolina vs NC State	+7.5	61.5	W 26 - 21	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for East Carolina's Schedule

NC State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	NC State vs Western Carolina	-32.5	60.5	W 38 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/7	NC State vs Tennessee	+10.0	60.5	L 10 - 51	O	N
Sat 9/14	NC State vs Louisiana Tech	-20.5	47.5	W 30 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/21	NC State at Clemson	+17.0	44.0	L 35 - 59	O	N
Sat 9/28	NC State vs Northern Illinois	-7.0	46.0	W 24 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/5	NC State vs Wake Forest	-4.0	52.5	L 30 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/12	NC State vs Syracuse	+1.0	51.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/19	NC State at California	+9.5	46.0	W 24 - 23	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	NC State vs Stanford	-10.0	46.5	W 59 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/9	NC State vs Duke	-3.5	51.5	L 19 - 29	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/21	NC State at Georgia Tech	+7.5	51.5	L 29 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/30	NC State at North Carolina	+2.5	54.5	W 35 - 30	O	Y
Sat 12/28	NC State vs East Carolina	-7.5	61.5	L 21 - 26	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ECU	#49 (.22)	43% (62)	32	44% (71)	3.07 (57)	147	43% (54)	253	3.79 (83)	#64 (.16)	40% (40)	27.3	37% (11)	43% (86)	3.85 (76)	61	2.2	1.6
NCST	#26 (.25)	45% (36)	28.5	44% (68)	3.24 (36)	130	47% (20)	215	3.97 (61)	#86 (.19)	41% (59)	30.2	39% (31)	43% (87)	3.78 (67)	45	1.7	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ECU	#49 (.22)	43% (62)		44% (71)	3.07 (57)	147	43% (54)	253	3.79 (83)	#64 (.16)	40% (40)		37% (11)	43% (86)	3.85 (76)	61	2.2	1.6
NCST	#26 (.25)	45% (36)		44% (68)	3.24 (36)	130	47% (20)	215	3.97 (61)	#86 (.19)	41% (59)		39% (31)	43% (87)	3.78 (67)	45	1.7	1.4

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ECU Offense	13	32	29	43.3%	3.79	2.2	20	400	147	253	4.4	52%	48%	44%	43%	15%	.22
NCST Defense	13	30.2	24.7	40.9%	3.78	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	39%	43%	20%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ECU Defense	13	27.3	34.7	39.5%	3.85	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	37%	43%	16%	.16
NCST Offense	13	28.5	31	45.1%	3.97	1.7	19	345	130	215	4.4	47%	52%	44%	47%	19%	.25

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
East Carolina	13	23:08	20.1	42%	53%	7.3	61	2.2	1.6	6.5	1.3	4	30.4
NC State	13	29:10	18.6	37%	56%	4.8	45	1.7	1.4	6.2	1.8	2	28.9

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ECU Offense	13	52% (63)	44% (71)	33.2	147.3	4.4	20 (67)	.17 (47)	3.07 (57)	79% (27)	8% (42)	1.02 (48)
NCST Defense	13	47% (33)	39% (31)	-	-	-	-	.2 (111)	3.07 (83)	76% (86)	12% (24)	1.28 (134)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ECU Defense	13	54% (109)	37% (11)	-	-	-	-	.03 (22)	2.57 (14)	57% (3)	11% (48)	1.02 (84)
NCST Offense	13	47% (89)	44% (68)	29.6	130.3	4.4	21 (59)	.15 (56)	3.24 (36)	69% (92)	13% (127)	0.98 (59)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ECU Offense	13	48% (72)	43% (54)	18.5	30.7	252.7	8.2	13.7	26 (26)	21 (134)	.28 (54)	1.7 (24)	30% (37)	34% (33)	.51 (8)	7% (92)	2.3 (7)
NCST Defense	13	53% (106)	43% (87)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.19 (47)	1.5 (22)	33% (49)	30% (65)	.33 (83)	8% (16)	2.3 (120)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ECU Defense	13	46% (28)	43% (86)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.32 (105)	1.7 (98)	33% (51)	35% (117)	.46 (122)	5% (104)	2.1 (78)
NCST Offense	13	52% (48)	47% (20)	18.2	28.1	214.8	7.7	11.8	18 (68)	12 (85)	.36 (24)	1.6 (45)	30% (35)	36% (24)	.57 (5)	6% (83)	2.2 (19)

East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: -0.23 #65
East Carolina's Offense Rating: 20.65 #59
East Carolina's Defense Rating: 8.33 #56
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
East Carolina's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
East Carolina's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.0 #73
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.5 #58
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #87

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
East Carolina: -0.23 NC State: 1.7

SP+ Ratings Matchup
East Carolina: -1.0 NC State: 3.9

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 1.7 #66
NC State's Offense Rating: 22.82 #43
NC State's Defense Rating: 12.12 #89
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #33
NC State's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
NC State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #56
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #47
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #68

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 32 PPG
Offense on Road: 29
Defense: 27.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.7

East Carolina's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
NC State 28
East Carolina 26

Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
NC State 21
East Carolina 13

Total Points: 34

Based on Entire Season
NC State 30
East Carolina 29

Total Points: 59

NC State Scoring
Offense: 28.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 31
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.7

NC State's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	08/28	NC State	24	East Carolina	17	NC State -12.5	East Carolina	58.5	Under
2024	12/28	NC State	21	East Carolina	26	NC State -7.5	East Carolina	61.5	Under
2022	09/03	East Carolina	20	NC State	21	NC State -12.5	East Carolina	52.0	Under
2019	08/31	NC State	34	East Carolina	6	NC State -17.5	NC State	52.0	Under
2018	12/01	NC State	58	East Carolina	3	NC State -24.5	NC State	59.5	Over
2016	09/10	East Carolina	33	NC State	30	NC State -3.5	East Carolina	59.0	Over
2013	11/23	NC State	28	East Carolina	42	East Carolina -6	East Carolina	0
2010	10/16	East Carolina	33	NC State	27
2008	09/20	NC State	30	East Carolina	24
2007	10/20	East Carolina	20	NC State	34
2006	11/25	NC State	16	East Carolina	21
2004	11/27	NC State	52	East Carolina	14

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
NC State	7	2	2 Overs
East Carolina	5	5	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 5	4 - 3	2 - 2	2 - 1
Road Teams	5 - 7	3 - 4	1 - 2	2 - 2

East Carolina Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	Go Bowl	East Carolina vs NC State	+7.5	61.5	W 26 - 21
2022	Birmingham Bowl	East Carolina vs Coastal Carolina	-7.0	67.5	W 53 - 29

NC State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	Go Bowl	NC State vs East Carolina	-7.5	61.5	L 21 - 26
2023	Tarts Bowl	NC State vs Kansas State	+3.0	48.5	L 19 - 28
2022	Mayo Bowl	NC State vs Maryland	-2.5	45.0	L 12 - 16
2020	Gator Bowl	NC State vs Kentucky	+3.0	50.5	L 21 - 23
2018	N/A	NC State vs Texas A&M	+7.5	58.5	L 13 - 52

(#65) ECU at (#66) NCST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ECU	NCST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#65	#66
SP+SP+	#73	#56
Perf GradeGrade	#58	#51
OffenseOff	#47	#58
DefenseDef	#44	#49
Spec TeamsST	#128	#94
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#33

East Carolina Notes(11/29) Snapped vs Navy, Def abysmal, Rgame awful
(11/26) Interim HC Blake Harrell hired after 5-0 run
(11/25) 4 str W's under Harrell, Off mauled N. Texas
(11/8) Off rolling, 575+ yds, 343 pass/238 rush vs FAU
(10/27) Off had 56 pts in 3 Q's game after Houston fired
(10/20) Run D torched for 295 (5.3 ypc) vs Army
(10/20) HC Houston Fired after Army gm, DC Harrell Int
(10/8) Run D torched for 300+ (6 ypc) vs Char?
(10/8) Slipping after awful '23. Staff done? Quit watch
(9/28) Rgame awful but Garcia good in W over UTSA
(9/23) Have 14 TOs in 4 games (last), Garcia 9 Int
(9/23) Blew 17-0 (Lib), Garcia meh, Rgame meh
East Carolina Injury Report

NC State Notes(11/25) Rgame mauled GT, but 3 Bailey INTs, bad Def
(11/13) Off abysmal (< 3 ypc) vs Duke, Pass D torched
(10/23) McCall carted off in WF game. Retired
(10/13) Pass D torched by Cuse. QB Bailey much better
(10/6) Team melted late vs Wake (L). Def is awful
(9/28) Off awful (171 yds) vs N Ill. Forced 4 TOs to W
(9/21) 110 pts allowed to Tenn/Clem. Shockingly bad
(9/18) OL disappointing, portals not as good, injuries
(9/17) McCall hurt, Fr CJ Bailey start at QB vs Clemson
(9/15) Off really bad esp Red Zone. McCall hurt vs LT
(9/8) Off disaster, Run D horrific. Did not belong w/ Tenn
(9/1) Close w/ W Car, gave up 9 TFLs, McCall good
NC State Injury Report

East Carolina on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	ECU Off	NCST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#47	#49
SuccessSuc	#62	#59
ExplosiveExp	#18	#113
PPAPPA	#49	#86
PowerPwr	#59	#89
SP+SP+	#58	#68
Pts POPPO	#83	#67
HavocHav	#50	#16

East Carolina Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	ECU Off	NCST Def
Run GameRun	#60	#53
Run SuccessRSuc	#71	#31
Run ExplRExp	#48	#134
PPAExp	#47	#111
Run BlockR Blk	#43	-
OL YdsOLY	#57	#83
Stuff RateStuff	#65	#105
TackleTak	-	#41

East Carolina Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	ECU Off	NCST Def
Pass GamePass	#59	#54
Pass SuccessPSuc	#54	#87
Pass ExplPExl	#24	#22
PPAExp	#54	#47
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#65	#57
F7 HavocF7	#42	#24
DB HavocDB	#92	#16

NC State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	NCST Off	ECU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#58	#44
SuccessSuc	#36	#40
ExplosiveExp	#32	#100
PPAPPA	#26	#64
PowerPwr	#43	#56
SP+SP+	#47	#87
Pts POPPO	#61	#76
HavocHav	#122	#69

NC State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	NCST Off	ECU Def
Run GameRun	#110	#20
Run SuccessRSuc	#68	#11
Run ExplRExp	#59	#84
PPAExp	#56	#22
Run BlockR Blk	#24	-
OL YdsOLY	#36	#14
Stuff RateStuff	#37	#11
TackleTak	-	#76

NC State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	NCST Off	ECU Def
Pass GamePass	#40	#74
Pass SuccessPSuc	#20	#86
Pass ExplPExl	#45	#98
PPAExp	#24	#105
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#10	#75
F7 HavocF7	#127	#48
DB HavocDB	#83	#104

Program Comparison
NCST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

ECU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Fog
Temp: 46°Rain: 0.031

Rematch from Week 1
NC State -7.5 (61.5)
East Carolina won at NC State this year (26-21)

Previous Matchups
East Carolina beat NC State last year (26-21)
NC State beat East Carolina in 2022 (21-20)

ECU's OC John David Baker (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Katin Houser (Tr)	149	245	61%	2006	18	11	8.2
Jake Garcia (Tr)	109	181	60%	1426	8	12	7.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rahjai Harris	206	1166	11	5.7	86
London Montgomery (Tr)	71	359	2	5.1	48
Marlon Gunn	61	224	3	3.7	20
Katin Houser (Tr)	49	170	4	3.5	35

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Smith (Tr)	41	799	6	19.5	64
Chase Sowell	34	678	3	19.9	56
Winston Wright	54	556	8	10.3	65
Yannick Smith	25	434	3	17.4	52

View East Carolina's Full Roster

ECU's DC Blake Harrell (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Omar Rogers	105	6	1	2	2
Zakye Barker	81	12	2	1	1
Michael Edwards III	75	9	1	2	4
Ja'Marley Riddle	63	4	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elijah Morris	31	6	4	2	0
Samuel Dankah	34	7	3	1	2
J.D. Lampley	25	5	2	6	0
Ryheem Craig (Tr)	49	6	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaiah Brown-Murray	40	1	0	0	6
Michael Edwards III	75	9	1	2	4
Ja'Marley Riddle	63	4	0	0	4

NCST's OC Robert Anae (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
CJ Bailey	196	302	65%	2412	17	10	8.0
Grayson McCall (Tr)	53	80	66%	518	3	2	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Daylan Smothers	89	571	6	6.4	53
Jordan Waters (Tr)	95	470	4	4.9	94
Kendrick Raphael	78	425	3	5.4	40
CJ Bailey	99	279	5	2.8	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Justin Joly (Tr)	43	661	4	15.4	40
Noah Rogers (Tr)	35	478	1	13.7	75
Kevin Concepcion	53	459	6	8.7	42
Wesley Grimes (Tr)	24	319	1	13.3	30

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC Tony Gibson (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sean Brown	95	9	3	13	1
Donovan Kaufman (Tr)	74	4	1	6	4
Devon Betty	61	9	2	6	2
Aydan White	59	0	0	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davin Vann	41	14	7	2	2
Travali Price	37	9	4	3	0
Sean Brown	95	9	3	13	1
Devon Betty	61	9	2	6	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bishop Fitzgerald	55	7	0	2	8
Devon Marshall (Tr)	33	1	0	0	7
Tamarcus Cooley (Tr)	39	3	1	2	6