East Carolina vs NC State Game Matchup

East Carolina Pirates vs NC State Wolfpack

Saturday, December 28th 2024 (5:45 PM EST)
NC State -7.5 (61.5) (-298) Open: 0.0
East Carolina 26 - NC State: 21 (Go Bowling Military Bowl)

Pirates (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Blake Harrell (5 - 0)
Avg Score : 32 - 27 (29 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: NC State -2.5 (SP+ NCST -5)
Projected Score: ECU: 29 - NCST: 31 (59)
NCST Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
ECU Travel: 77 miles

Wolfpack (6 - 7) (4 - 8 - 1)
Coach Dave Doeren (81 - 58)
Avg Score : 29 - 30 (31 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
ECU Players
NCST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

East Carolina's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	East Carolina vs Norfolk State	-31.5	51.5	W 42 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/7	East Carolina at Old Dominion	+1.5	53.5	W 20 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/14	East Carolina vs App State	-0.5	56.5	L 19 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/21	East Carolina at Liberty	+7.5	55.0	L 24 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/28	East Carolina vs UTSA	-2.0	53.5	W 30 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/5	East Carolina at Charlotte	-9.5	47.5	L 24 - 55	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	East Carolina at Army	+17.5	54.0	L 28 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/26	East Carolina vs Temple	-8.5	48.5	W 56 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/7	East Carolina vs Florida Atlantic	-5.5	58.5	W 49 - 14	O	Y
Thu 11/14	East Carolina at Tulsa	-16.0	63.5	W 38 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/23	East Carolina at North Texas	+2.5	73.5	W 40 - 28	U	Y
Fri 11/29	East Carolina vs Navy	-2.5	54.0	L 20 - 34	U	N
Sat 12/28	East Carolina vs NC State	+7.5	61.5	W 26 - 21	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for East Carolina's Schedule

NC State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	NC State vs Western Carolina	-32.5	60.5	W 38 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/7	NC State vs Tennessee	+10.0	60.5	L 10 - 51	O	N
Sat 9/14	NC State vs Louisiana Tech	-20.5	47.5	W 30 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/21	NC State at Clemson	+17.0	44.0	L 35 - 59	O	N
Sat 9/28	NC State vs Northern Illinois	-7.0	46.0	W 24 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/5	NC State vs Wake Forest	-4.0	52.5	L 30 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/12	NC State vs Syracuse	+1.0	51.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/19	NC State at California	+9.5	46.0	W 24 - 23	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	NC State vs Stanford	-10.0	46.5	W 59 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/9	NC State vs Duke	-3.5	51.5	L 19 - 29	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/21	NC State at Georgia Tech	+7.5	51.5	L 29 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/30	NC State at North Carolina	+2.5	54.5	W 35 - 30	O	Y
Sat 12/28	NC State vs East Carolina	-7.5	61.5	L 21 - 26	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ECU	#132 (.02)	33% (132)	32	35% (128)	2.85 (111)	112	32% (130)	164	2.62 (129)	#40 (.14)	34% (6)	27.3	30% (2)	39% (37)	2.84 (8)	54.3	1.8	1.3
NCST	#89 (.15)	40% (100)	28.5	40% (96)	3.11 (68)	157	39% (96)	194	4.11 (47)	#16 (.1)	39% (34)	30.2	39% (34)	40% (40)	3.77 (66)	46.3	1.2	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ECU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NCST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ECU Offense	12	32	29	33.3%	2.62	1.8	15	276	112	164	3.5	46%	53%	35%	32%	20%	.02
NCST Defense	13	30.2	24.7	38.8%	3.77	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	44%	54%	39%	40%	19%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ECU Defense	12	27.3	34.7	34.3%	2.84	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	30%	39%	20%	.14
NCST Offense	13	28.5	31	39.5%	4.11	1.2	19	350	157	194	4.3	52%	48%	40%	39%	18%	.15

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
East Carolina	12	28:59	15.1	30%	35%	5.8	54.3	1.8	1.3	6.9	1.5	2	30.6
NC State	13	32:27	18.5	40%	60%	5.8	46.3	1.2	1.9	5.5	2.5	3	30.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ECU Offense	12	46% (98)	35% (128)	32.2	111.7	3.5	12 (116)	.03 (123)	2.85 (111)	71% (90)	12% (108)	0.97 (87)
NCST Defense	13	44% (11)	39% (34)	-	-	-	-	.12 (55)	2.88 (31)	66% (27)	11% (32)	1.07 (103)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ECU Defense	12	51% (88)	30% (2)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (13)	2.53 (7)	74% (76)	13% (8)	1.19 (124)
NCST Offense	13	52% (52)	40% (96)	36.8	156.6	4.3	19 (69)	.13 (83)	3.11 (68)	80% (20)	12% (106)	0.93 (100)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ECU Offense	12	53% (37)	32% (130)	17.3	32.3	163.9	5.1	9.5	7 (129)	14 (107)	.05 (129)	1.5 (92)	38% (133)	22% (129)	.11 (127)	8% (116)	2.1 (55)
NCST Defense	13	54% (122)	40% (40)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (3)	.14 (15)	1.5 (28)	36% (17)	29% (50)	.2 (19)	7% (25)	1.9 (16)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ECU Defense	12	48% (55)	39% (37)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (120)	.32 (100)	1.8 (126)	38% (6)	33% (107)	.43 (116)	6% (53)	2.2 (98)
NCST Offense	13	48% (80)	39% (96)	17.2	29.2	193.8	6.7	11.3	19 (78)	12 (85)	.2 (95)	1.6 (67)	34% (102)	27% (101)	.27 (90)	6% (72)	2 (92)

East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: -0.23 #65
East Carolina's Offense Rating: 20.65 #59
East Carolina's Defense Rating: 8.33 #56
2024 Talent Rating: 590.00 #78
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
East Carolina's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
East Carolina's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.0 #73
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.5 #58
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #87

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482.57
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
East Carolina: -0.23 NC State: 1.7

SP+ Ratings Matchup
East Carolina: -1.0 NC State: 3.9

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 1.7 #66
NC State's Offense Rating: 22.82 #43
NC State's Defense Rating: 12.12 #89
2024 Talent Rating: 760.00 #38
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #33
NC State's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
NC State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #56
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #47
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #68

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 32 PPG
Offense on Road: 29
Defense: 27.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.7

East Carolina's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
NC State 31
East Carolina 29

Projected Total Points: 59

NC State Scoring
Offense: 28.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 31
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.7

NC State's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 1
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	12/28	NC State	21	East Carolina	26	East Carolina	NC State -7.5	East Carolina	61.5	Under
2022	09/03	East Carolina	20	NC State	21	NC State	NC State -12.5	East Carolina	52.0	Under
2019	08/31	NC State	34	East Carolina	6	NC State	NC State -17.5	NC State	52.0	Under
2018	12/01	NC State	58	East Carolina	3	NC State	NC State -24.5	NC State	59.5	Over
2016	09/10	East Carolina	33	NC State	30	East Carolina	NC State -3.5	East Carolina	59.0	Over
2013	11/23	NC State	28	East Carolina	42	East Carolina	East Carolina -6	East Carolina	0
2010	10/16	East Carolina	33	NC State	27	East Carolina
2008	09/20	NC State	30	East Carolina	24	NC State
2007	10/20	East Carolina	20	NC State	34	NC State
2006	11/25	NC State	16	East Carolina	21	East Carolina
2004	11/27	NC State	52	East Carolina	14	NC State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
NC State	6	2	2 Overs
East Carolina	5	4	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 5	4 - 2	2 - 1	2 - 1
Road Teams	5 - 6	2 - 4	1 - 2	1 - 2

East Carolina Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	Go Bowl	East Carolina vs NC State	+7.5	61.5	W 26 - 21
2022	Birmingham Bowl	East Carolina vs Coastal Carolina	-7.0	67.5	W 53 - 29

NC State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	Go Bowl	NC State vs East Carolina	-7.5	61.5	L 21 - 26
2023	Tarts Bowl	NC State vs Kansas State	+3.0	48.5	L 19 - 28
2022	Mayo Bowl	NC State vs Maryland	-2.5	45.0	L 12 - 16
2020	Gator Bowl	NC State vs Kentucky	+3.0	50.5	L 21 - 23
2018	N/A	NC State vs Texas A&M	+7.5	58.5	L 13 - 52

(#65) East Carolina Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -0.23 #65
Offense Rating: 20.65 #59
Defense Rating: 8.33 #56
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.0 #73
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.5 #58
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #87
Talent Rating: 590.00 #78
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 43%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.79 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 40%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.85 PPO
Great Run Def Success 37%
Bad Pass Def Success 43%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

East Carolina has played in 2 Bowls in the last 5 years (2 - 0)
East Carolina has played in 12 Bowls since 2000 (5 - 7)

East Carolina Notes
(11/26) Interim HC Blake Harrell hired after 5-0 run
(11/25) 4 str W's under Harrell, Off mauled N. Texas
(11/8) Off rolling, 575+ yds, 343 pass/238 rush vs FAU
(10/27) Off had 56 pts in 3 Q's game after Houston fired
(10/20) Run D torched for 295 (5.3 ypc) vs Army
(10/20) HC Houston Fired after Army gm, DC Harrell Int
(10/8) Run D torched for 300+ (6 ypc) vs Char?
(10/8) Slipping after awful '23. Staff done? Quit watch
(9/28) Rgame awful but Garcia good in W over UTSA
(9/23) Have 14 TOs in 4 games (last), Garcia 9 Int

East Carolina Ratings Matchup NC State

Power #65

#66

Off #59

#43

Def #56

#89

Talent #78

#38

SP+ #73

#56

SP+ Off #58

#47

SP+ Def #87

#68

Rematch from Week 1
NC State -7.5 (61.5)
East Carolina won at NC State this year (26-21)

Previous Matchups
East Carolina beat NC State last year (26-21)
NC State beat East Carolina in 2022 (21-20)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Fog
Temp: 46°Rain: 0.031

Team Information
Injuries: ECU | NCST
Depth Chart: ECU | NCST
Rosters: ECU | NCST

(#66) NC State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 1.7 #66
Offense Rating: 22.82 #43
Defense Rating: 12.12 #89
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #56
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #47
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #68
Talent Rating: 760.00 #38
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #33
Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
Good Offense Success Rate of 45%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.97 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Great Pass Success 47%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.78 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Bad Pass Def Success 43%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

NC State has played in 4 Bowls in the last 5 years (0 - 4)
NC State has played in 18 Bowls since 2000 (9 - 9)

NC State Notes
(11/13) Off abysmal (< 3 ypc) vs Duke, Pass D torched
(10/23) McCall carted off in WF game. Retired
(10/13) Pass D torched by Cuse. QB Bailey much better
(10/6) Team melted late vs Wake (L). Def is awful
(9/28) Off awful (171 yds) vs N Ill. Forced 4 TOs to W
(9/21) 110 pts allowed to Tenn/Clem. Shockingly bad
(9/18) OL disappointing, portals not as good, injuries
(9/17) McCall hurt, Fr CJ Bailey start at QB vs Clemson
(9/15) Off really bad esp Red Zone. McCall hurt vs LT
(9/8) Off disaster, Run D horrific. Did not belong w/ Tenn

East Carolina's OC John David Baker

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Katin Houser (Tr)	149	245	61%	2006	18	11	8.2
Jake Garcia (Tr)	109	181	60%	1426	8	12	7.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
London Montgomery (Tr)	71	359	2	5.1	48
Marlon Gunn	61	224	3	3.7	20
Katin Houser (Tr)	49	170	4	3.5	35
Javious Bond	14	92	1	6.6	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Smith (Tr)	41	799	6	19.5	64
Chase Sowell	34	678	3	19.9	56
Winston Wright	54	556	8	10.3	65
Yannick Smith	25	434	3	17.4	52

View East Carolina's Full Roster

East Carolina's DC Blake Harrell

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zakye Barker	81	12	2	1	1
Ja'Marley Riddle	63	4	0	0	4
Gavin Gibson (Tr)	52	7	0	1	3
Ryheem Craig (Tr)	49	6	2	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Samuel Dankah	34	7	3	1	2
Ryheem Craig (Tr)	49	6	2	1	0
J.D. Lampley	25	5	2	6	0
Zakye Barker	81	12	2	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Isaiah Brown-Murray	40	1	0	6
Ja'Marley Riddle	63	4	0	4
Gavin Gibson (Tr)	52	7	1	3

NC State's OC Robert Anae

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
CJ Bailey	196	302	65%	2412	17	10	8.0
Grayson McCall (Tr)	53	80	66%	518	3	2	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Daylan Smothers	89	571	6	6.4	53
Jordan Waters (Tr)	95	470	4	4.9	94
Kendrick Raphael	78	425	3	5.4	40
CJ Bailey	99	279	5	2.8	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Justin Joly (Tr)	43	661	4	15.4	40
Noah Rogers (Tr)	35	478	1	13.7	75
Kevin Concepcion	53	459	6	8.7	42
Wesley Grimes (Tr)	24	319	1	13.3	30

View NC State's Full Roster

NC State's DC Tony Gibson

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sean Brown	95	9	3	13	1
Donovan Kaufman (Tr)	74	4	1	6	4
Kamal Bonner	56	7	1	6	0
Bishop Fitzgerald	55	7	0	2	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Travali Price	37	9	4	3	0
Sean Brown	95	9	3	13	1
Donovan Kaufman (Tr)	74	4	1	6	4
Kelvon Mcbride	14	1	1	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bishop Fitzgerald	55	7	0	2	8
Devon Marshall (Tr)	33	1	0	0	7
Tamarcus Cooley (Tr)	39	3	1	2	6