Arkansas at Memphis - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 20th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Arkansas -7 (59.5) (-270) Open: -5.5
Memphis 32 - Arkansas: 31

Razorbacks (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Bobby Petrino (Int) (34 - 15)
Avg Score : 33 - 34 (31 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 7) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)

ARK 2nd straight Road Game
MEM is playing their 4th straight game
ARK is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Memphis -4 (SP+ MEM -5)
Projected Score: ARK: 28 - MEM: 32 (59)
ARK Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
ARK Travel: 245 miles

Tigers (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Ryan Silverfield (41 - 21)
Avg Score : 33 - 23 (34 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#38)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 4)

Matchup
Schedules
ARK Players
MEM Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Arkansas vs Alabama A&M	-45.5	62.5	W 52 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/6	Arkansas vs Arkansas State	-23.5	62.0	W 56 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Arkansas at Ole Miss	+3.5	60.5	L 35 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/20	Arkansas at Memphis	-7.0	59.5	L 31 - 32	O	N
Sat 9/27	Arkansas vs Notre Dame	+5.5	64.5	L 13 - 56	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Arkansas at Tennessee	+10.0	68.5	L 31 - 34	U	Y
Sat 10/18	Arkansas vs Texas A&M	+7.5	57.5	L 42 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Arkansas vs Auburn	-2.5	55.5	L 24 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/1	Arkansas vs Mississippi State	-5.5	66.5	L 35 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Arkansas at LSU	+4.0	58.5	L 22 - 23	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Arkansas at Texas	+10.5	57.5	L 37 - 52	O	N
Sat 11/29	Arkansas vs Missouri	+4.5	54.5	L 17 - 31	U	N

Total: Elite: 8, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arkansas's Schedule

Memphis's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Memphis vs Chattanooga	-30.5	55.5	W 45 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Memphis at Georgia State	-14.5	57.5	W 38 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Memphis at Troy	-4.5	51.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Memphis vs Arkansas	+7.0	59.5	W 32 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Memphis at Florida Atlantic	-14.0	62.5	W 55 - 26	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Memphis vs Tulsa	-21.0	54.5	W 45 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Memphis at UAB	-23.5	59.5	L 24 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/25	Memphis vs South Florida	+3.5	58.5	W 34 - 31	O	Y
Fri 10/31	Memphis at Rice	-13.5	48.5	W 38 - 14	O	Y
Fri 11/7	Memphis vs Tulane	-3.0	53.5	L 32 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/15	Memphis at East Carolina	+3.0	56.5	L 27 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/27	Memphis vs Navy	-3.5	57.5	L 17 - 28	U	N
Fri 12/19	Memphis vs NC State	+6.0	56.5	L 7 - 31	U	N

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Memphis's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARK	#14 (.31)	49% (12)	32.9	54% (1)	3.43 (6)	192	45% (37)	263	4.2 (31)	#127 (.27)	47% (127)	33.8	50% (132)	46% (118)	4.21 (119)	67	1.7	0.8
MEM	#25 (.26)	45% (40)	32.5	49% (16)	3.33 (12)	183	42% (69)	228	4.41 (23)	#91 (.19)	42% (65)	23.2	39% (32)	45% (108)	4 (100)	48.1	0.9	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARK	#27 (.25)	48% (13)		52% (5)	3.23 (38)	168	44% (41)	248	3.95 (64)	#45 (.13)	42% (66)		39% (32)	44% (100)	3.31 (22)	56.3	1.7	1
MEM	#23 (.27)	44% (57)		46% (40)	3.27 (31)	175	41% (71)	270	4.66 (14)	#87 (.19)	40% (47)		40% (45)	40% (62)	4.05 (96)	48	0.6	1.9

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARK Offense	12	32.9	31.2	48.7%	4.2	1.7	23	455	192	263	5.7	48%	51%	54%	45%	17%	.31
MEM Defense	13	23.2	24.2	41.6%	4	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	39%	45%	17%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARK Defense	12	33.8	36.4	47.3%	4.21	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	44%	50%	46%	15%	.27
MEM Offense	13	32.5	34.2	45%	4.41	0.9	23	412	183	228	5.1	48%	50%	49%	42%	14%	.26

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas	12	29:01	23.3	47%	53%	7.8	67	1.7	0.8	5.4	1.8	2	27.4
Memphis	13	31:42	22.7	42%	56%	5.5	48.1	0.9	1.5	6	1.6	3	29.4

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARK Offense	12	48% (80)	54% (1)	33.6	192.2	5.7	25 (30)	.3 (5)	3.43 (6)	65% (109)	10% (77)	1.08 (25)
MEM Defense	13	50% (74)	39% (32)	-	-	-	-	.04 (34)	2.58 (14)	73% (85)	11% (30)	0.99 (87)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARK Defense	12	54% (118)	50% (132)	-	-	-	-	.21 (125)	3.05 (100)	71% (66)	9% (89)	0.95 (61)
MEM Offense	13	48% (78)	49% (16)	36.2	183.2	5.1	34 (1)	.3 (6)	3.33 (12)	75% (49)	10% (98)	1.17 (7)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARK Offense	12	51% (54)	45% (37)	19.3	31.8	262.9	8.3	13.7	22 (8)	11 (60)	.37 (30)	1.7 (21)	31% (59)	40% (4)	.58 (5)	7% (114)	2.3 (4)
MEM Defense	13	49% (71)	45% (108)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (6)	.37 (116)	1.6 (105)	32% (61)	30% (79)	.37 (106)	6% (49)	2.1 (110)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARK Defense	12	44% (15)	46% (118)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (75)	.44 (132)	1.7 (122)	31% (84)	36% (131)	.44 (127)	6% (54)	2.1 (106)
MEM Offense	13	50% (60)	42% (69)	21.4	31.7	228.4	7.2	10.7	17 (86)	9 (88)	.23 (78)	1.5 (94)	32% (83)	32% (43)	.34 (55)	4% (12)	2.1 (43)

Arkansas's Power Ratings
Arkansas's Power Rating: 10.26 #41
Arkansas's Offense Rating: 22.68 #13
Arkansas's Defense Rating: 12.42 #98
2025 Talent Rating: 816.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #33
Arkansas's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Arkansas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.9 #52
Arkansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.5 #16
Arkansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #99

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas: 10.26 Memphis: 11.56

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas: 4.9 Memphis: 9.5

Memphis's Power Ratings
Memphis's Power Rating: 11.56 #45
Memphis's Offense Rating: 17.81 #24
Memphis's Defense Rating: 9.19 #74
2025 Talent Rating: 776.00 #60
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #49
Memphis's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 4.4
Memphis's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.5 #34
Memphis's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.5 #16
Memphis's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #72

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Arkansas Scoring
Offense: 32.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.2
Defense: 33.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.4

Arkansas's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Memphis 32
Arkansas 28

Total Points: 59

Based on Last 4 Games
Memphis 33
Arkansas 24

Total Points: 57

Based on Entire Season
Memphis 34
Arkansas 28

Total Points: 62

Memphis Scoring
Offense: 32.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.2
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

Memphis's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/20	Memphis	32	Arkansas	31	Arkansas -7	Memphis	59.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Memphis	1	1	1 Overs
Arkansas	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

(#41) ARK at (#45) MEM

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARK	MEM
Power RatePwr	#41	#45
SP+SP+	#52	#34
Perf GradeGrade	#79	#39
OffenseOff	#45	#39
DefenseDef	#116	#55
Spec TeamsST	#99	#62
TalentTal	#48	#60
Blue ChipsBC%	#33	#49

Arkansas Notes(11/30) Hired Ryan Silverfield (Memphis). Meh hire IMO
(10/22) Defense is worst in CFB in Success Rate, Off great
(10/18) Off great vs A&M, Def torched as usual. 9 flags hurt
(9/30) Def has no players, schematics almost don't matter
(9/30) Pittman fired, Petrino Interim, Def staff fired
(9/27) Damn break vs ND, Def mauled, Off awful. Green bad
(9/23) Have fumbled away 2 straight games, brutal
(9/23) QB Taylen Green leads CFB in total offense (Wk 5)
(9/19) Off hot start, QB Green great, WR Blake weapon
(9/19) Pass Def torched by Ole Miss, Run D held up
(8/17) OC & DC are fighting, nearly physically?
(8/17) Def front 7 biggest issue, pass rush SEC worst
Arkansas Injury Report

Memphis Notes(12/18) Hired OC Kevin Decker (ODU's OC)
(12/11) Hired HC Charles Huff (So Miss/Marshall).
(11/28) 3 game losing streak to finish. Silverfield a poor job
(11/16) 2 L's when CFP was in sights. Finish vs Navy
(10/25) QB Brendon Lewis will play vs S. Florida
(10/19) Def torched by UAB, Off sputtered w/o QB Lewis
(10/10) Def much better than anticipated, 2nd in AAC in YPP
(9/24) Off run game mauled Arkansas, QB Lewis a runner
(9/19) Run heavy Off so far, took care of cupcakes
(8/13) Real $$, biggest NIL spender in the G5
(8/13) QB Lewis a weapon (Nev), wins QB1 job in fall
(6/17) 4* QB AJ Hill was the only blue chip QB to G5
Memphis Injury Report

Arkansas on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	ARK Off	MEM Def
Perf GradePerf	#45	#55
SuccessSuc	#12	#65
ExplosiveExp	#15	#108
PPAPPA	#14	#91
PowerPwr	#13	#74
SP+SP+	#16	#72
Pts POPPO	#31	#100
HavocHav	#101	#34

Arkansas Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	ARK Off	MEM Def
Run GameRun	#2	#19
Run SuccessRSuc	#1	#32
Run ExplRExp	#25	#87
PPAExp	#5	#34
Run BlockR Blk	#81	-
OL YdsOLY	#6	#14
Stuff RateStuff	#94	#32
TackleTak	-	#94

Arkansas Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	ARK Off	MEM Def
Pass GamePass	#63	#110
Pass SuccessPSuc	#37	#108
Pass ExplPExl	#21	#105
PPAExp	#30	#116
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#72	#124
F7 HavocF7	#77	#30
DB HavocDB	#114	#49

Memphis on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	MEM Off	ARK Def
Perf GradePerf	#39	#116
SuccessSuc	#40	#127
ExplosiveExp	#32	#77
PPAPPA	#25	#127
PowerPwr	#24	#98
SP+SP+	#16	#99
Pts POPPO	#23	#119
HavocHav	#51	#73

Memphis Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	MEM Off	ARK Def
Run GameRun	#29	#81
Run SuccessRSuc	#16	#132
Run ExplRExp	#7	#61
PPAExp	#6	#125
Run BlockR Blk	#23	-
OL YdsOLY	#12	#100
Stuff RateStuff	#75	#63
TackleTak	-	#22

Memphis Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	MEM Off	ARK Def
Pass GamePass	#50	#127
Pass SuccessPSuc	#69	#118
Pass ExplPExl	#94	#122
PPAExp	#78	#132
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#32	#77
F7 HavocF7	#98	#89
DB HavocDB	#12	#54

Program Comparison
MEM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

ARK 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 82°

Rematch from Week 4
Arkansas 7.0 (59.5)
Memphis won vs Arkansas this year (32-31)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

ARK's OC Bobby Petrino (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Taylen Green	198	326	61%	2714	19	11	8.3
KJ Jackson	33	54	61%	441	3	0	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Michael Washington	168	1068	8	6.4	57
Taylen Green	138	779	8	5.6	64
Braylen Russell	55	286	5	5.2	23
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)	6	54	0	9.0	41

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
O'Mega Blake (Tr)	57	760	5	13.3	36
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)	41	592	3	14.4	58
Rohan Jones (Tr)	19	519	4	27.3	62
CJ Brown	28	319	3	11.4	26

View Arkansas's Full Roster

ARK's DC Chris Wilson (Int) (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavian Sorey Jr.	81	8	3	3	3
Stephen Dix Jr.	79	4	1	0	0
Larry Worth	64	1	0	0	1
Caleb Wooden (Tr)	59	3	0	1	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Quincy Rhodes Jr.	43	16	8	6	0
Phillip Lee (Tr)	31	6	4	4	0
Xavian Sorey Jr.	81	8	3	3	3
Bradley Shaw	50	5	2	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kani Walker (Tr)	52	3	1	0	11
Julian Neal (Tr)	55	2	0	0	10
Jordan Young (Tr)	28	0	0	1	6

MEM's OC Tim Cramsey (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brendon Lewis (Tr)	253	368	69%	2673	16	7	7.3
AJ Hill	19	32	59%	223	1	1	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sutton Smith	102	669	7	6.6	84
Brendon Lewis (Tr)	152	664	9	4.4	27
Gregory DeRosiers	99	563	7	5.7	90
Frank Peasant (Tr)	62	275	7	4.4	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cortez Braham	63	889	8	14.1	73
Jamari Hawkins	38	623	2	16.4	57
Marcello Bussey	27	287	0	10.6	40
Brady Kluse	22	240	2	10.9	25

View Memphis's Full Roster

MEM's DC Jordon Hankins (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sam Brumfield (Tr)	90	11	5	2	0
Kamari Wilson (Tr)	78	7	1	1	4
Chris Bracy (Tr)	71	7	0	1	9
Drue Watts (Tr)	69	11	4	10	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sam Brumfield (Tr)	90	11	5	2	0
Drue Watts (Tr)	69	11	4	10	2
Everett Roussaw Jr. (Tr)	58	7	3	1	4
William Whitlow Jr.	31	6	3	2	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chris Bracy (Tr)	71	7	0	1	9
Jeremiah Jordan	19	2	1	0	6
Omarion Cooper (Tr)	39	1	0	0	6