Arkansas at Memphis - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 20th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Arkansas -7 (59.5) (-270) Open: -5.5
Memphis 32 - Arkansas: 31

Razorbacks (2 - 7) (3 - 6 - 0)
Coach Bobby Petrino (Int) (34 - 15)
Avg Score : 35 - 33 (32 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2.8 - 9.2 (#126)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 7) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)

ARK 2nd straight Road Game
MEM is playing their 4th straight game
ARK is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Memphis -4.5 (SP+ MEM -3)
Projected Score: ARK: 28 - MEM: 32 (60)
ARK Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
ARK Travel: 245 miles

Tigers (8 - 2) (8 - 2 - 0)
Coach Ryan Silverfield (41 - 21)
Avg Score : 37 - 21 (38 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.2 - 1.8 (#11)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 4)

Matchup
Schedules
ARK Players
MEM Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Arkansas vs Alabama A&M	-45.5	62.5	W 52 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/6	Arkansas vs Arkansas State	-23.5	62.0	W 56 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Arkansas at Ole Miss	+3.5	60.5	L 35 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/20	Arkansas at Memphis	-7.0	59.5	L 31 - 32	O	N
Sat 9/27	Arkansas vs Notre Dame	+5.5	64.5	L 13 - 56	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Arkansas at Tennessee	+10.0	68.5	L 31 - 34	U	Y
Sat 10/18	Arkansas vs Texas A&M	+7.5	57.5	L 42 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Arkansas vs Auburn	-2.5	55.5	L 24 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/1	Arkansas vs Mississippi State	-5.5	66.5	L 35 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Arkansas at LSU	+8
Sat 11/22	Arkansas at Texas	+12.5
Sat 11/29	Arkansas vs Missouri	+6

Total: Elite: 8, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arkansas's Schedule

Memphis's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Memphis vs Chattanooga	-30.5	55.5	W 45 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Memphis at Georgia State	-14.5	57.5	W 38 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Memphis at Troy	-4.5	51.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Memphis vs Arkansas	+7.0	59.5	W 32 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Memphis at Florida Atlantic	-14.0	62.5	W 55 - 26	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Memphis vs Tulsa	-21.0	54.5	W 45 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Memphis at UAB	-23.5	59.5	L 24 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/25	Memphis vs South Florida	+3.5	58.5	W 34 - 31	O	Y
Fri 10/31	Memphis at Rice	-13.5	48.5	W 38 - 14	O	Y
Fri 11/7	Memphis vs Tulane	-3.0	53.5	L 32 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/15	Memphis at East Carolina	-2.5
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/27	Memphis vs Navy	-12

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Memphis's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARK	#5 (.36)	51% (7)	35.4	56% (1)	3.49 (5)	209	47% (25)	276	4.55 (25)	#131 (.3)	49% (132)	33.3	51% (133)	46% (119)	4.43 (121)	62.6	1.7	0.9
MEM	#28 (.27)	48% (21)	37.1	50% (13)	2.16 (125)	181	46% (38)	206	4.74 (14)	#63 (.13)	39% (44)	21.1	37% (24)	42% (76)	3.42 (42)	40.5	0.8	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARK	#27 (.25)	48% (13)		52% (5)	3.23 (38)	168	44% (41)	248	3.95 (64)	#45 (.13)	42% (66)		39% (32)	44% (100)	3.31 (22)	56.3	1.7	1
MEM	#23 (.27)	44% (57)		46% (40)	3.27 (31)	175	41% (71)	270	4.66 (14)	#87 (.19)	40% (47)		40% (45)	40% (62)	4.05 (96)	48	0.6	1.9

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARK Offense	9	35.4	32.3	51.2%	4.55	1.7	24	485	209	276	6	50%	50%	56%	47%	16%	.36
MEM Defense	10	21.1	23.4	39.4%	3.42	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	45%	54%	37%	42%	20%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARK Defense	9	33.3	35.7	48.7%	4.43	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	51%	46%	16%	.3
MEM Offense	10	37.1	37.6	48%	4.74	0.8	21	387	181	206	5.3	53%	46%	50%	46%	14%	.27

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas	9	29:12	24.3	52%	45%	6.9	62.6	1.7	0.9	5.6	1.8	1	27
Memphis	10	28:24	21.3	44%	71%	4.8	40.5	0.8	1.7	6.2	1.4	3	30.5

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARK Offense	9	50% (71)	56% (1)	34.7	209.1	6	20 (30)	.33 (4)	3.49 (5)	75% (47)	9% (56)	1.05 (33)
MEM Defense	10	45% (24)	37% (24)	-	-	-	-	- (21)	2.44 (34)	74% (86)	12% (17)	0.98 (76)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARK Defense	9	53% (104)	51% (133)	-	-	-	-	.25 (131)	3.03 (108)	76% (104)	9% (84)	1 (85)
MEM Offense	10	53% (44)	50% (13)	34.4	180.9	5.3	30 (1)	.27 (10)	2.16 (125)	78% (29)	10% (85)	1.15 (10)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARK Offense	9	50% (61)	47% (25)	19.7	31.4	275.7	8.8	14	20 (8)	8 (60)	.41 (24)	1.6 (28)	29% (33)	42% (3)	.68 (2)	7% (92)	2.3 (14)
MEM Defense	10	54% (119)	42% (76)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (6)	.25 (82)	1.5 (73)	36% (14)	30% (69)	.31 (81)	8% (19)	2 (87)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARK Defense	9	46% (29)	46% (119)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (75)	.41 (126)	1.6 (104)	30% (101)	38% (130)	.44 (123)	7% (30)	2 (66)
MEM Offense	10	46% (94)	46% (38)	17.3	25.8	205.8	8	11.9	11 (86)	6 (88)	.29 (61)	1.5 (59)	30% (48)	36% (28)	.31 (73)	4% (17)	2 (53)

Arkansas's Power Ratings
Arkansas's Power Rating: 11.33 #40
Arkansas's Offense Rating: 26.39 #10
Arkansas's Defense Rating: 15.06 #112
2025 Talent Rating: 816.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #33
Arkansas's 2025 Expected Record: 2.8 - 9.2
Arkansas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.0 #41
Arkansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.6 #6
Arkansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.1 #98

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas: 11.33 Memphis: 14.675

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas: 9.0 Memphis: 12.2

Memphis's Power Ratings
Memphis's Power Rating: 14.675 #37
Memphis's Offense Rating: 17.85 #28
Memphis's Defense Rating: 5.70 #57
2025 Talent Rating: 776.00 #60
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #49
Memphis's 2025 Expected Record: 10.2 - 1.8
Memphis's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.2 #29
Memphis's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #13
Memphis's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #61

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Arkansas Scoring
Offense: 35.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.3
Defense: 33.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.7

Arkansas's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Memphis 32
Arkansas 28

Total Points: 60

Based on Last 4 Games
Memphis 35
Arkansas 23

Total Points: 58

Based on Entire Season
Memphis 36
Arkansas 28

Total Points: 64

Memphis Scoring
Offense: 37.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.6
Defense: 21.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 23.4

Memphis's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 2
Record vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/20	Memphis	32	Arkansas	31	Arkansas -7	Memphis	59.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Memphis	1	1	1 Overs
Arkansas	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

(#40) ARK at (#37) MEM

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARK	MEM
Power RatePwr	#40	#37
SP+SP+	#41	#29
Perf GradeGrade	#46	#22
OffenseOff	#28	#27
DefenseDef	#86	#37
Spec TeamsST	#95	#57
TalentTal	#48	#60
Blue ChipsBC%	#33	#49

Arkansas Notes(10/22) Defense is worst in CFB in Success Rate, Off great
(10/18) Off great vs A&M, Def torched as usual. 9 flags hurt
(9/30) Def has no players, schematics almost don't matter
(9/30) Pittman fired, Petrino Interim, Def staff fired
(9/27) Damn break vs ND, Def mauled, Off awful. Green bad
(9/23) Have fumbled away 2 straight games, brutal
(9/23) QB Taylen Green leads CFB in total offense (Wk 5)
(9/19) Off hot start, QB Green great, WR Blake weapon
(9/19) Pass Def torched by Ole Miss, Run D held up
(8/17) OC & DC are fighting, nearly physically?
(8/17) Def front 7 biggest issue, pass rush SEC worst
(5/23) Hogs getting picked clean by portal, NIL bad
Arkansas Injury Report

Memphis Notes(11/6) Silverfield took Ark job, will coach season
(10/25) QB Brendon Lewis will play vs S. Florida
(10/19) Def torched by UAB, Off sputtered w/o QB Lewis
(10/10) Def much better than anticipated, 2nd in AAC in YPP
(9/24) Off run game mauled Arkansas, QB Lewis a runner
(9/19) Run heavy Off so far, took care of cupcakes
(8/13) Real $$, biggest NIL spender in the G5
(8/13) QB Lewis a weapon (Nev), wins QB1 job in fall
(6/17) 4* QB AJ Hill was the only blue chip QB to G5
(5/23) Memphis was 5-1 in 1 score games LY
(5/11) 61% of OL exp comes from portal adds
(4/12) RB looks very thin. No portals after Amos left
Memphis Injury Report

Arkansas on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	ARK Off	MEM Def
Perf GradePerf	#28	#37
SuccessSuc	#7	#44
ExplosiveExp	#30	#98
PPAPPA	#5	#63
PowerPwr	#10	#57
SP+SP+	#6	#61
Pts POPPO	#25	#42
HavocHav	#72	#11

Arkansas Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	ARK Off	MEM Def
Run GameRun	#1	#9
Run SuccessRSuc	#1	#24
Run ExplRExp	#33	#76
PPAExp	#4	#21
Run BlockR Blk	#97	-
OL YdsOLY	#5	#34
Stuff RateStuff	#75	#12
TackleTak	-	#124

Arkansas Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	ARK Off	MEM Def
Pass GamePass	#38	#76
Pass SuccessPSuc	#25	#76
Pass ExplPExl	#28	#73
PPAExp	#24	#82
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#39	#121
F7 HavocF7	#56	#17
DB HavocDB	#92	#19

Memphis on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	MEM Off	ARK Def
Perf GradePerf	#27	#86
SuccessSuc	#21	#132
ExplosiveExp	#24	#85
PPAPPA	#28	#131
PowerPwr	#28	#112
SP+SP+	#13	#98
Pts POPPO	#14	#121
HavocHav	#49	#65

Memphis Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	MEM Off	ARK Def
Run GameRun	#22	#49
Run SuccessRSuc	#13	#133
Run ExplRExp	#10	#85
PPAExp	#10	#131
Run BlockR Blk	#18	-
OL YdsOLY	#125	#108
Stuff RateStuff	#73	#66
TackleTak	-	#10

Memphis Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	MEM Off	ARK Def
Pass GamePass	#59	#109
Pass SuccessPSuc	#38	#119
Pass ExplPExl	#59	#104
PPAExp	#61	#126
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#35	#62
F7 HavocF7	#85	#84
DB HavocDB	#17	#30

Program Comparison
MEM 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

ARK 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 82°

Rematch from Week 4
Arkansas 7.0 (59.5)
Memphis won vs Arkansas this year (32-31)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

ARK's OC Bobby Petrino (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Taylen Green	171	274	62%	2372	19	8	8.7
KJ Jackson	6	8	75%	109	1	0	13.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Michael Washington	127	828	6	6.5	57
Taylen Green	107	649	6	6.1	64
Braylen Russell	55	286	5	5.2	23
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)	1	41	0	41.0	41

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
O'Mega Blake (Tr)	50	661	4	13.2	36
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)	30	427	3	14.2	58
Rohan Jones (Tr)	13	411	4	31.6	62
CJ Brown	23	251	3	10.9	26

View Arkansas's Full Roster

ARK's DC Chris Wilson (Int) (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavian Sorey Jr.	64	5	2	3	3
Stephen Dix Jr.	62	3	0	0	0
Larry Worth	50	1	0	0	1
Julian Neal (Tr)	49	2	0	0	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Quincy Rhodes Jr.	37	14	8	4	0
Phillip Lee (Tr)	24	6	4	4	0
Xavian Sorey Jr.	64	5	2	3	3
Miguel Mitchell	42	1	1	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Kani Walker (Tr)	38	1	0	10
Julian Neal (Tr)	49	2	0	8
Jordan Young (Tr)	20	0	1	5

MEM's OC Tim Cramsey (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brendon Lewis (Tr)	188	264	71%	2186	12	5	8.3
AJ Hill	13	25	52%	175	1	1	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sutton Smith	89	535	6	6.0	64
Brendon Lewis (Tr)	119	516	8	4.3	26
Gregory DeRosiers	83	485	7	5.8	90
Frank Peasant (Tr)	40	207	7	5.2	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cortez Braham	50	745	7	14.9	73
Jamari Hawkins	30	548	1	18.3	57
Marcello Bussey	20	224	0	11.2	40
Brady Kluse	17	199	2	11.7	25

View Memphis's Full Roster

MEM's DC Jordon Hankins (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sam Brumfield (Tr)	65	12	5	2	0
Kamari Wilson (Tr)	65	6	0	1	4
Drue Watts (Tr)	55	8	2	9	2
Chris Bracy (Tr)	49	7	0	1	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sam Brumfield (Tr)	65	12	5	2	0
William Whitlow Jr.	21	6	3	2	4
Drue Watts (Tr)	55	8	2	9	2
Jalen Bell (Tr)	30	5	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Chris Bracy (Tr)	49	7	1	8
Omarion Cooper (Tr)	30	1	0	6
Jeremiah Jordan	13	1	0	4