South Florida at Memphis - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 25th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
South Florida -3.5 (58.5) (-175) Open: -3.0
Memphis 34 - South Florida: 31 (American Athletic)

Bulls (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (13 - 12)
Avg Score : 41 - 23 (35 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.9 - 3.1 (#22)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)

USF is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: South Florida -4.5 (SP+ USF -4)
Projected Score: USF: 32 - MEM: 28 (60)
USF Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
USF Travel: 661 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Tigers (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Ryan Silverfield (41 - 21)
Avg Score : 33 - 23 (34 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#38)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)

Matchup
Schedules
USF Players
MEM Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

South Florida's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	South Florida vs Boise State	+8.5	63.5	W 34 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/6	South Florida at Florida	+18.5	58.0	W 18 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/13	South Florida at Miami	+17.5	56.5	L 12 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/20	South Florida vs South Carolina State	-36.0	56.5	W 63 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/3	South Florida vs Charlotte	-28.5	54.5	W 54 - 26	O	N
Fri 10/10	South Florida at North Texas	+2.5	68.5	W 63 - 36	O	Y
Sat 10/18	South Florida vs Florida Atlantic	-20.5	72.5	W 48 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/25	South Florida at Memphis	-3.5	58.5	L 31 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6	South Florida vs UTSA	-14.0	66.5	W 55 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/15	South Florida at Navy	-8.5	62.5	L 38 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/22	South Florida at UAB	-21.5	68.5	W 48 - 18	U	Y
Sat 11/29	South Florida vs Rice	-28.5	57.5	W 52 - 3	U	Y
Wed 12/17	South Florida vs Old Dominion	-4.0	52.5	L 10 - 24	U	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule

Memphis's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Memphis vs Chattanooga	-30.5	55.5	W 45 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Memphis at Georgia State	-14.5	57.5	W 38 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Memphis at Troy	-4.5	51.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Memphis vs Arkansas	+7.0	59.5	W 32 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Memphis at Florida Atlantic	-14.0	62.5	W 55 - 26	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Memphis vs Tulsa	-21.0	54.5	W 45 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Memphis at UAB	-23.5	59.5	L 24 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/25	Memphis vs South Florida	+3.5	58.5	W 34 - 31	O	Y
Fri 10/31	Memphis at Rice	-13.5	48.5	W 38 - 14	O	Y
Fri 11/7	Memphis vs Tulane	-3.0	53.5	L 32 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/15	Memphis at East Carolina	+3.0	56.5	L 27 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/27	Memphis vs Navy	-3.5	57.5	L 17 - 28	U	N
Fri 12/19	Memphis vs NC State	+6.0	56.5	L 7 - 31	U	N

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Memphis's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USF	#83 (.17)	38% (118)	40.5	39% (112)	3.06 (60)	181	38% (106)	227	3.88 (74)	#66 (.16)	39% (36)	23.4	38% (17)	40% (69)	4 (88)	70.9	1.4	2.1
MEM	#23 (.27)	44% (57)	32.5	46% (40)	3.27 (31)	175	41% (71)	270	4.66 (14)	#87 (.19)	40% (47)	23.2	40% (45)	40% (62)	4.05 (96)	48	0.6	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MEM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USF Offense	13	40.5	35	38.3%	3.88	1.4	20	408	181	227	4.8	48%	52%	39%	38%	15%	.17
MEM Defense	13	23.2	24.2	40%	4.05	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	43%	56%	40%	40%	20%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USF Defense	13	23.4	32.3	39.2%	4	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	38%	40%	20%	.16
MEM Offense	13	32.5	34.2	43.7%	4.66	0.6	23	446	175	270	5.1	46%	54%	46%	41%	12%	.27

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
South Florida	13	25:10	20.4	39%	56%	8.1	70.9	1.4	2.1	8.1	2.5	2	30.7
Memphis	13	33:14	23.1	46%	52%	5.3	48	0.6	1.9	5.8	1.9	0	32.3

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USF Offense	13	48% (82)	39% (112)	37.8	180.8	4.8	34 (10)	.2 (32)	3.06 (60)	66% (114)	10% (62)	1.26 (3)
MEM Defense	13	43% (5)	40% (45)	-	-	-	-	.09 (50)	2.64 (20)	64% (22)	12% (20)	1.13 (120)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USF Defense	13	49% (46)	38% (17)	-	-	-	-	.04 (26)	2.63 (18)	70% (48)	13% (11)	1.13 (121)
MEM Offense	13	46% (99)	46% (40)	34.2	175.1	5.1	33 (12)	.22 (26)	3.27 (31)	69% (93)	7% (17)	1.06 (38)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USF Offense	13	52% (51)	38% (106)	20.2	34.1	227.5	6.7	11.3	16 (87)	10 (63)	.13 (113)	1.5 (109)	34% (114)	25% (121)	.22 (105)	6% (68)	2.2 (21)
MEM Defense	13	56% (130)	40% (62)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.28 (90)	1.7 (93)	34% (40)	30% (70)	.43 (112)	8% (13)	2.4 (134)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USF Defense	13	51% (91)	40% (69)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.28 (89)	1.6 (78)	34% (32)	32% (87)	.3 (64)	7% (46)	1.9 (32)
MEM Offense	13	54% (33)	41% (71)	23.8	36.8	270.5	7.3	11.3	25 (31)	6 (10)	.31 (42)	1.6 (47)	30% (44)	34% (40)	.47 (16)	5% (32)	2.1 (61)

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 11.22 #40
South Florida's Offense Rating: 22.51 #18
South Florida's Defense Rating: 11.29 #53
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00 #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #79
South Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 9.9 - 3.1
South Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.6 #29
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #12
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #62

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
South Florida: 11.22 Memphis: 7.065

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Florida: 11.6 Memphis: 7.6

Memphis's Power Ratings
Memphis's Power Rating: 7.065 #61
Memphis's Offense Rating: 16.31 #50
Memphis's Defense Rating: 14.78 #75
2025 Talent Rating: 776.00 #60
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #49
Memphis's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 4.4
Memphis's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.6 #39
Memphis's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.3 #21
Memphis's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.3 #75

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

South Florida Scoring
Offense: 40.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 35
Defense: 23.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.3

South Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
South Florida 32
Memphis 28

Projected Total Points: 60

Memphis Scoring
Offense: 32.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.2
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

Memphis's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/25	Memphis	34	South Florida	31	South Florida -3.5	Memphis	58.5	Over
2024	10/12	South Florida	3	Memphis	21	Memphis -10	Memphis	61.0	Under
2023	11/04	Memphis	59	South Florida	50	Memphis -13.5	South Florida	68.5	Over
2020	11/07	Memphis	34	South Florida	33	Memphis -17.5	South Florida	67.0	Push
2019	11/23	South Florida	10	Memphis	49	Memphis -15.5	Memphis	60.0	Under
2016	11/12	Memphis	42	South Florida	49	South Florida -3	South Florida	76.5	Over
2015	10/02	South Florida	17	Memphis	24	Memphis -10.5	South Florida	58.5	Under
2014	11/22	Memphis	31	South Florida	20	Memphis -19	South Florida	0
2013	11/16	South Florida	10	Memphis	23	Memphis -2.5	Memphis	0
2008	12/20	South Florida	41	Memphis	14
2004	11/27	South Florida	15	Memphis	31
2003	11/29	Memphis	16	South Florida	21
2002	11/09	South Florida	31	Memphis	28
2001	09/22	Memphis	17	South Florida	9

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Memphis	10	4	3 Overs
South Florida	4	5	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 7	2 - 7	0 - 3	2 - 4
Road Teams	7 - 7	7 - 2	4 - 2	3 - 0

(#40) USF at (#61) MEM

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USF	MEM
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#40	#61
SP+SP+	#29	#39
Perf GradeGrade	#38	#40
OffenseOff	#27	#42
DefenseDef	#61	#58
Spec TeamsST	#85	#64
TalentTal	#30	#60
Blue ChipsBC%	#79	#49

South Florida Notes(12/16) Hiring Tim Beck as OC for reasons unknown.
(12/3) Hiring OSU OC Brian Hartline, Golesh left for Auburn
(10/10) Mauled N Texas, over 600 yds offense, 300 rushing
(10/4) Still running QB Brown 17 times in Char blowout?
(8/29) QB Brown great vs Boise, tough runner. Big W
(8/28) LB good, exp'd. Starters have over 40 starts
(7/12) Golesh go-go offense could fun after Sept
(6/2) RBs Franklin (OU) & Norton (Char) added
(5/11) OL top 10 exp, 78% returning, 22% via portal
(3/23) QB Brown vs Archie, both inconsistent LY
(3/23) WR lost #1, Nimrod (Tenn)/Singleton good
(3/23) OL returns 4/5. 3 more with exp, 2 portals
South Florida Injury Report

Memphis Notes(12/18) Hired OC Kevin Decker (ODU's OC)
(12/11) Hired HC Charles Huff (So Miss/Marshall).
(11/28) 3 game losing streak to finish. Silverfield a poor job
(11/16) 2 L's when CFP was in sights. Finish vs Navy
(10/25) QB Brendon Lewis will play vs S. Florida
(10/19) Def torched by UAB, Off sputtered w/o QB Lewis
(10/10) Def much better than anticipated, 2nd in AAC in YPP
(9/24) Off run game mauled Arkansas, QB Lewis a runner
(9/19) Run heavy Off so far, took care of cupcakes
(8/13) Real $$, biggest NIL spender in the G5
(8/13) QB Lewis a weapon (Nev), wins QB1 job in fall
(6/17) 4* QB AJ Hill was the only blue chip QB to G5
Memphis Injury Report

South Florida on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	USF Off	MEM Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#27	#58
SuccessSuc	#118	#47
ExplosiveExp	#10	#123
PPAPPA	#83	#87
PowerPwr	#18	#75
SP+SP+	#12	#75
Pts POPPO	#74	#96
HavocHav	#57	#11

South Florida Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	USF Off	MEM Def
Run GameRun	#19	#14
Run SuccessRSuc	#112	#45
Run ExplRExp	#3	#120
PPAExp	#32	#50
Run BlockR Blk	#76	-
OL YdsOLY	#60	#20
Stuff RateStuff	#45	#14
TackleTak	-	#99

South Florida Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	USF Off	MEM Def
Pass GamePass	#8	#112
Pass SuccessPSuc	#106	#62
Pass ExplPExl	#109	#93
PPAExp	#113	#90
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#18	#120
F7 HavocF7	#62	#20
DB HavocDB	#68	#13

Memphis on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	MEM Off	USF Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#42	#61
SuccessSuc	#57	#36
ExplosiveExp	#26	#115
PPAPPA	#23	#66
PowerPwr	#50	#53
SP+SP+	#21	#62
Pts POPPO	#14	#88
HavocHav	#18	#15

Memphis Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	MEM Off	USF Def
Run GameRun	#32	#77
Run SuccessRSuc	#40	#17
Run ExplRExp	#38	#121
PPAExp	#26	#26
Run BlockR Blk	#26	-
OL YdsOLY	#31	#18
Stuff RateStuff	#49	#10
TackleTak	-	#132

Memphis Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	MEM Off	USF Def
Pass GamePass	#46	#71
Pass SuccessPSuc	#71	#69
Pass ExplPExl	#47	#78
PPAExp	#42	#89
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#51	#8
F7 HavocF7	#17	#11
DB HavocDB	#32	#46

Program Comparison
MEM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

USF 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 69°

Rematch from Week 9
South Florida 3.5 (58.5)
Memphis won vs South Florida this year (34-31)

Previous Matchups
Memphis beat South Florida last year (34-31)
Memphis beat South Florida in 2024 (21-3)
Memphis beat South Florida in 2023 (59-50)

USF's OC Joel Gordon (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Byrum Brown	226	341	66%	3158	28	7	9.3
Gaston Moore (Tr)	34	48	71%	290	2	2	6.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Byrum Brown	175	1008	14	5.8	60
Nykahi Davenport	98	612	7	6.2	60
Sam Franklin (Tr)	80	474	4	5.9	73
Alvon Isaac	73	350	0	4.8	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keshaun Singleton	50	877	8	17.5	66
Jeremiah Koger	38	597	8	15.7	63
Mudia Reuben (Tr)	36	495	5	13.8	60
Chas Nimrod (Tr)	23	466	3	20.3	55

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Todd Orlando (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jhalyn Shuler	105	9	3	6	8
Mac Harris	103	8	6	7	2
Tavin Ward	60	2	0	0	2
De'Shawn Rucker	58	2	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mac Harris	103	8	6	7	2
Jarvis Lee Jr.	55	12	4	4	2
Ricardo Watson	49	7	3	5	1
Jhalyn Shuler	105	9	3	6	8

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jhalyn Shuler	105	9	3	6	8
De'Shawn Rucker	58	2	0	0	4
Jonas Duclona (Tr)	35	3	1	0	4

MEM's OC Tim Cramsey (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brendon Lewis (Tr)	253	368	69%	2673	16	7	7.3
AJ Hill	19	32	59%	223	1	1	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sutton Smith	102	669	7	6.6	84
Brendon Lewis (Tr)	151	660	9	4.4	27
Gregory DeRosiers	99	563	7	5.7	90
Frank Peasant (Tr)	63	279	7	4.4	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cortez Braham	63	889	8	14.1	73
Jamari Hawkins	38	623	2	16.4	57
Marcello Bussey	27	287	0	10.6	40
Brady Kluse	22	240	2	10.9	25

View Memphis's Full Roster

MEM's DC Jordon Hankins (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sam Brumfield (Tr)	90	11	5	2	0
Kamari Wilson (Tr)	78	7	1	1	4
Chris Bracy (Tr)	71	7	0	1	9
Drue Watts (Tr)	69	11	4	10	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sam Brumfield (Tr)	90	11	5	2	0
Drue Watts (Tr)	69	11	4	10	2
Everett Roussaw Jr. (Tr)	58	7	3	1	4
William Whitlow Jr.	31	6	3	2	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chris Bracy (Tr)	71	7	0	1	9
Jeremiah Jordan	19	2	1	0	6
Omarion Cooper (Tr)	39	1	0	0	6