East Carolina at NC State Game Matchup

East Carolina Pirates at NC State Wolfpack

Wednesday, August 27th 2025 (4:00 PM EDT)
NC State -12.5 (0.0) (0) Open: -14.0
Carter-Finley Stadium - Raleigh, NC

Pirates (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Blake Harrell (4 - 1)
Avg Score : 32 - 27 (29 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.8 - 6.2 (#78)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 7)

Our Line: NC State -16 (SP+ NCST -11)
Projected Score: ECU: 22 - NCST: 38 (59)
NCST Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
ECU Travel: 77 miles

Wolfpack (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (87 - 64)
Avg Score : 29 - 30 (31 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.9 - 5.1 (#53)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 4)

Matchup
Schedules
ECU Players
NCST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

East Carolina's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Wed 8/27	East Carolina at NC State	+12.5	0.0
Sat 9/6	East Carolina vs Campbell	-16
Sat 9/13	East Carolina at Coastal Carolina	-1.5
Sat 9/20	East Carolina vs BYU	+15.5
Thu 9/25	East Carolina vs Army	+1.5
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9	East Carolina at Tulane	+13.5
Thu 10/16	East Carolina vs Tulsa	-12.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	East Carolina at Temple	-8.5
Sat 11/8	East Carolina vs Charlotte	-15.5
Sat 11/15	East Carolina vs Memphis	+7
Sat 11/22	East Carolina at UTSA	+10.5
Sat 11/29	East Carolina at Florida Atlantic	-4

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for East Carolina's Schedule

NC State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Wed 8/27	NC State vs East Carolina	-12.5	0.0
Sat 9/6	NC State vs Virginia	-8.5
Thu 9/11	NC State at Wake Forest	-10.5
Sat 9/20	NC State at Duke	+2.5
Sat 9/27	NC State vs Virginia Tech	-3
Sat 10/4	NC State vs Campbell	-29.5
Sat 10/11	NC State at Notre Dame	+22.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25	NC State at Pittsburgh	+1
Sat 11/1	NC State vs Georgia Tech	-1
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	NC State at Miami	+16.5
Fri 11/21	NC State vs Florida State	-1
Sat 11/29	NC State vs North Carolina	-6.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 5, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 5, Bad 3, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for NC State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ECU	#49 (.22)	43% (62)	32	44% (71)	3.07 (57)	147	43% (54)	253	3.79 (83)	#64 (.16)	40% (40)	27.3	37% (11)	43% (86)	3.85 (76)	61	2.2	1.6
NCST	#26 (.25)	45% (36)	28.5	44% (68)	3.24 (36)	130	47% (20)	215	3.97 (61)	#86 (.19)	41% (59)	30.2	39% (31)	43% (87)	3.78 (67)	45	1.7	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ECU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NCST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ECU Offense	13	32	29	43.3%	3.79	2.2	20	400	147	253	4.4	52%	48%	44%	43%	15%	.22
NCST Defense	13	30.2	24.7	40.9%	3.78	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	39%	43%	20%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ECU Defense	13	27.3	34.7	39.5%	3.85	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	37%	43%	16%	.16
NCST Offense	13	28.5	31	45.1%	3.97	1.7	19	345	130	215	4.4	47%	52%	44%	47%	19%	.25

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
East Carolina	13	23:08	20.1	42%	53%	7.3	61	2.2	1.6	6.5	1.3	4	30.4
NC State	13	29:10	18.6	37%	56%	4.8	45	1.7	1.4	6.2	1.8	2	28.9

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ECU Offense	13	52% (63)	44% (71)	33.2	147.3	4.4	20 (67)	.17 (47)	3.07 (57)	79% (27)	8% (42)	1.02 (48)
NCST Defense	13	47% (33)	39% (31)	-	-	-	-	.2 (111)	3.07 (83)	76% (86)	12% (24)	1.28 (134)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ECU Defense	13	54% (109)	37% (11)	-	-	-	-	.03 (22)	2.57 (14)	57% (3)	11% (48)	1.02 (84)
NCST Offense	13	47% (89)	44% (68)	29.6	130.3	4.4	21 (59)	.15 (56)	3.24 (36)	69% (92)	13% (127)	0.98 (59)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ECU Offense	13	48% (72)	43% (54)	18.5	30.7	252.7	8.2	13.7	26 (26)	21 (134)	.28 (54)	1.7 (24)	30% (37)	34% (33)	.51 (8)	7% (92)	2.3 (7)
NCST Defense	13	53% (106)	43% (87)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.19 (47)	1.5 (22)	33% (49)	30% (65)	.33 (83)	8% (16)	2.3 (120)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ECU Defense	13	46% (28)	43% (86)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.32 (105)	1.7 (98)	33% (51)	35% (117)	.46 (122)	5% (104)	2.1 (78)
NCST Offense	13	52% (48)	47% (20)	18.2	28.1	214.8	7.7	11.8	18 (68)	12 (85)	.36 (24)	1.6 (45)	30% (35)	36% (24)	.57 (5)	6% (83)	2.2 (19)

East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: -8.24 #88
East Carolina's Offense Rating: 12.37 #79
East Carolina's Defense Rating: 20.61 #100
2025 Talent Rating: 606.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
East Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 5.8 - 6.2
East Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6 #90
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #65
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.6 #106

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 532.14
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Power Ratings Matchup
East Carolina: -8.24 NC State: 8.405

SP+ Ratings Matchup
East Carolina: -6.6 NC State: 4.8

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 8.405 #46
NC State's Offense Rating: 18.52 #41
NC State's Defense Rating: 11.51 #48
2025 Talent Rating: 814.00 #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #37
NC State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.9 - 5.1
NC State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8 #42
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #36
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.4 #54

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 826.12
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 32 PPG
Offense on Road: 29
Defense: 27.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.7

East Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
NC State 38
East Carolina 22

Projected Total Points: 59

NC State Scoring
Offense: 28.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 31
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.7

NC State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	12/28	NC State	21	East Carolina	26	East Carolina	NC State -7.5	East Carolina	61.5	Under
2022	09/03	East Carolina	20	NC State	21	NC State	NC State -12.5	East Carolina	52.0	Under
2019	08/31	NC State	34	East Carolina	6	NC State	NC State -17.5	NC State	52.0	Under
2018	12/01	NC State	58	East Carolina	3	NC State	NC State -24.5	NC State	59.5	Over
2016	09/10	East Carolina	33	NC State	30	East Carolina	NC State -3.5	East Carolina	59.0	Over
2013	11/23	NC State	28	East Carolina	42	East Carolina	East Carolina -6	East Carolina	0
2010	10/16	East Carolina	33	NC State	27	East Carolina
2008	09/20	NC State	30	East Carolina	24	NC State
2007	10/20	East Carolina	20	NC State	34	NC State
2006	11/25	NC State	16	East Carolina	21	East Carolina
2004	11/27	NC State	52	East Carolina	14	NC State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
NC State	6	2	2 Overs
East Carolina	5	4	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 5	4 - 2	2 - 1	2 - 1
Road Teams	5 - 6	2 - 4	1 - 2	1 - 2

(#88) East Carolina Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -8.24 #88
Offense Rating: 12.37 #79
Defense Rating: 20.61 #100
Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6 #90
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #65
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.6 #106
Talent Rating: 606.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
Expected Record: 5.8 - 6.2

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 43%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.79 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 40%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.85 PPO
Great Run Def Success 37%
Bad Pass Def Success 43%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

East Carolina Notes
(3/23) QB battle, both Garcia & Houser starting exp.
(3/23) New RB1, Montgomery/Gunn have exp
(3/23) WR Smith returns, Smith exp. 3 P4 portal adds
(3/23) OL 4/5 back, avg LY. 2 portals. Better TY
(3/23) Def awful LY, rebuild. 4 DL/4 DB portal adds
(3/23) New DC Aldridge 1st time. Exp w/ Aub/Lib
(3/23) HC Harrell won job w/ 4-1 finish LY.

East Carolina Ratings Matchup NC State

Power #88

#46

Off #79

#41

Def #100

#48

Talent #82

#46

SP+ #90

#42

SP+ Off #65

#36

SP+ Def #106

#54

Previous Matchups
East Carolina beat NC State last year (26-21)
NC State beat East Carolina in 2022 (21-20)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Carter-Finley Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: ECU | NCST
Depth Chart: ECU | NCST
Rosters: ECU | NCST

(#46) NC State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 8.405 #46
Offense Rating: 18.52 #41
Defense Rating: 11.51 #48
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8 #42
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #36
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.4 #54
Talent Rating: 814.00 #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #37
Expected Record: 6.9 - 5.1

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
Good Offense Success Rate of 45%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.97 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Great Pass Success 47%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.78 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Bad Pass Def Success 43%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

NC State Notes
(5/29) Same 3-3-5 Def, added 4 DE's (G5) for rush
(5/29) DB exp is mostly portal adds, LBs OK but depth?
(5/29) Tons of close lines, lots of variance in '25
(5/29) New OC is Kurt Roper, on staff since '19. Meh
(5/29) QB Bailey a good find as Fr in a bad '24 season
(5/29) WRs meh LY, some depth. TE Joly a weapon.
(5/29) OL returns 2/5, 3 portals. OTs decent, IOL ?
(5/29) Def was bad LY, 13 portal adds, lots of ??
(3/19) RB Smoothers back, depth/playmakers?
(3/19) DC Eliot journeyman with ? success

East Carolina's OC John David Baker

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Katin Houser	149	245	61%	2006	18	11	8.2
Jake Garcia	109	181	60%	1426	8	12	7.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
London Montgomery	71	359	2	5.1	48
Marlon Gunn	61	224	3	3.7	20
Katin Houser	49	170	4	3.5	35
Mike Wright (Tr)	17	82	1	4.8	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Smith	41	799	6	19.5	64
Yannick Smith	25	434	3	17.4	52
Jaquaize Pettaway (Tr)	5	87	0	17.4	46
Desirrio Riles	8	83	2	10.4	32

View East Carolina's Full Roster

East Carolina's DC Josh Aldridge

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ja'Marley Riddle	63	4	0	0	4
Rasheed Reason (Tr)	50	2	0	0	4
Ryheem Craig	49	6	2	1	0
Samuel Dankah	34	7	3	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Samuel Dankah	34	7	3	1	2
Kendrick DuJour (Tr)	23	4	3	1	0
Ryheem Craig	49	6	2	1	0
J.D. Lampley	25	5	2	6	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ja'Marley Riddle	63	4	0	0	4
Rasheed Reason (Tr)	50	2	0	0	4
Samuel Dankah	34	7	3	1	2

NC State's OC Kurt Roper

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
CJ Bailey	196	302	65%	2412	17	10	8.0
Lex Thomas	5	8	63%	65	1	1	8.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Daylan Smothers	89	571	6	6.4	53
CJ Bailey	99	279	5	2.8	31
Lex Thomas	1	9	0	9.0	9
Coleson Fields	3	8	0	2.7	3

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Justin Joly	43	661	4	15.4	40
Noah Rogers	35	478	1	13.7	75
Wesley Grimes	24	319	1	13.3	30
Daylan Smothers	19	263	2	13.8	72

View NC State's Full Roster

NC State's DC D. J. Eliot

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sean Brown	95	9	3	13	1
Jeremiah Johnson (Tr)	69	1	0	1	6
Brian Nelson II (Tr)	53	2	0	1	3
Caden Fordham	50	4	1	6	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cian Slone (Tr)	49	10	8	5	0
Travali Price	37	9	4	3	0
Sean Brown	95	9	3	13	1
Sabastian Harsh (Tr)	41	9	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Devon Marshall	33	1	0	7
Jeremiah Johnson (Tr)	69	1	1	6
Brian Nelson II (Tr)	53	2	1	3