East Carolina at NC State - 2025 Matchup Preview
East Carolina logo   East Carolina Pirates at NC State Wolfpack  NC State logo
Thursday, August 28th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
NC State -12.5 (58.5) (-440)  Open: -12.5 | 58.5
NC State 24 - East Carolina: 17

 
Pirates (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Blake Harrell (4 - 1)
Avg Score : 33 - 20 (31 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 7)
Our Line: NC State -4  (SP+ ECU -3)
Projected Score: ECU: 26 - NCST: 30 (57)
NCST Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
ECU Travel: 77 miles
Wolfpack (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (87 - 64)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (35 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#64)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
East Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 East Carolina at NC State+12.558.5L 17 - 24UY
Sat 9/6 East Carolina vs Campbell-30.056.0W 56 - 3OY
Sat 9/13 East Carolina at Coastal Carolina-7.058.0W 38 - 0UY
Sat 9/20 East Carolina vs BYU+6.549.5L 13 - 34UN
Thu 9/25 East Carolina vs Army-3.552.5W 28 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 East Carolina at Tulane+7.053.5L 19 - 26UY
Thu 10/16 East Carolina vs Tulsa-16.554.5W 41 - 27ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 East Carolina at Temple-5.558.5W 45 - 14OY
Sat 11/8 East Carolina vs Charlotte-29.556.5W 48 - 22ON
Sat 11/15 East Carolina vs Memphis-3.056.5W 31 - 27OY
Sat 11/22 East Carolina at UTSA-2.062.5L 24 - 58ON
Sat 11/29 East Carolina at Florida Atlantic-6.566.5W 42 - 3UY
Sat 12/27 East Carolina vs Pittsburgh+13.551.5W 23 - 17UY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for East Carolina's Schedule
NC State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 NC State vs East Carolina-12.558.5W 24 - 17UN
Sat 9/6 NC State vs Virginia-3.053.0W 35 - 31OY
Thu 9/11 NC State at Wake Forest-7.552.5W 34 - 24OY
Sat 9/20 NC State at Duke+3.057.5L 33 - 45ON
Sat 9/27 NC State vs Virginia Tech-10.057.5L 21 - 23UN
Sat 10/4 NC State vs Campbell-42.561.5W 56 - 10OY
Sat 10/11 NC State at Notre Dame+23.559.5L 7 - 36UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 NC State at Pittsburgh+5.552.5L 34 - 53ON
Sat 11/1 NC State vs Georgia Tech+4.558.5W 48 - 36OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 NC State at Miami+16.554.5L 7 - 41UN
Fri 11/21 NC State vs Florida State+7.058.5W 21 - 11UY
Sat 11/29 NC State vs North Carolina-7.048.5W 42 - 19OY
Fri 12/19 NC State vs Memphis-6.056.5W 31 - 7UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for NC State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ECU#49 (.22)43% (62)32.744% (71)3.07 (57)14743% (54)2533.79 (83)#64 (.16)40% (40)20.137% (11)43% (86)3.85 (76)612.21.6
NCST#26 (.25)45% (36)30.244% (68)3.24 (36)13047% (20)2153.97 (61)#86 (.19)41% (59)27.239% (31)43% (87)3.78 (67)451.71.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ECU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
NCST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ECU Offense1332.730.843.3%3.792.2204001472534.452%48%44%43%15%.22
NCST Defense1327.22140.9%3.781.4 - - - - - 47%53%39%43%20%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ECU Defense1320.120.839.5%3.851.6 - - - - - 54%46%37%43%16%.16
NCST Offense1330.235.345.1%3.971.7193451302154.447%52%44%47%19%.25

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
East Carolina1323:0820.142%53%7.3612.21.66.51.3430.4
NC State1329:1018.637%56%4.8451.71.46.21.8228.9
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ECU Offense1352% (63)44% (71)33.2147.34.420 (67).17 (47)3.07 (57)79% (27)8% (42)1.02 (48)
NCST Defense1347% (33)39% (31) - - - - .2 (111)3.07 (83)76% (86)12% (24)1.28 (134)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ECU Defense1354% (109)37% (11) - - - - .03 (22)2.57 (14)57% (3)11% (48)1.02 (84)
NCST Offense1347% (89)44% (68)29.6130.34.421 (59).15 (56)3.24 (36)69% (92)13% (127)0.98 (59)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ECU Offense1348% (72)43% (54)18.530.7252.78.213.726 (26)21 (134).28 (54)1.7 (24)30% (37)34% (33).51 (8)7% (92)2.3 (7)
NCST Defense1353% (106)43% (87) - - - - - - 8 (93).19 (47)1.5 (22)33% (49)30% (65).33 (83)8% (16)2.3 (120)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ECU Defense1346% (28)43% (86) - - - - - - 13 (31).32 (105)1.7 (98)33% (51)35% (117).46 (122)5% (104)2.1 (78)
NCST Offense1352% (48)47% (20)18.228.1214.87.711.818 (68)12 (85).36 (24)1.6 (45)30% (35)36% (24).57 (5)6% (83)2.2 (19)

East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: -1.04  #70
East Carolina's Offense Rating: 14.81  #58
East Carolina's Defense Rating: 15.85  #87
2025 Talent Rating: 690.00  #78
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
East Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
East Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.0  #38
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.6  #33
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.0  #51

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
East Carolina: -1.04   NC State: 7.25

SP+ Ratings Matchup
East Carolina: 8.0   NC State: 4.8




NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 7.25  #52
NC State's Offense Rating: 18.37  #36
NC State's Defense Rating: 13.67  #67
2025 Talent Rating: 838.00  #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 10  #39
NC State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.4 - 5.6
NC State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8  #55
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4  #45
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.5  #64

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 32.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.8
Defense: 20.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.8

East Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
NC State 30
East Carolina 26


Projected Total Points: 57
NC State Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.3
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

NC State's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/28NC State24East Carolina17NC State -12.5East Carolina58.5Under
202412/28NC State21East Carolina26NC State -7.5East Carolina61.5Under
202209/03East Carolina20NC State21NC State -12.5East Carolina52.0Under
201908/31NC State34East Carolina6NC State -17.5NC State52.0Under
201812/01NC State58East Carolina3NC State -24.5NC State59.5Over
201609/10East Carolina33NC State30NC State -3.5East Carolina59.0Over
201311/23NC State28East Carolina42East Carolina -6East Carolina0
201010/16East Carolina33NC State27
200809/20NC State30East Carolina24
200710/20East Carolina20NC State34
200611/25NC State16East Carolina21
200411/27NC State52East Carolina14
TeamWinsCoversO/U
NC State722 Overs
East Carolina554 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 54 - 32 - 22 - 1
Road Teams5 - 73 - 41 - 22 - 2

(#70) ECU at (#52) NCST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatECUNCST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #70 #52
SP+SP+ #38 #55
Perf GradeGrade #69 #75
OffenseOff #67 #52
DefenseDef #66 #89
Spec TeamsST #69 #91
TalentTal #78 #43
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #39
East Carolina Notes
(12/17) Hired OC Jordan Davis (N Tex). Incredible hire
(8/29) QB Houser baller vs NC St, Pass Def bad in L
(7/25) WR duo A Smith & Y Smith good, 3 good portals
(7/12) QB Houser starting exp, beat Garcia (fo to Mich)
(7/12) RBs v strong, Montgomery/Gunn exp'd & deep
(3/23) OL 4/5 back, avg LY. 2 portals. Better TY
(3/23) Def awful LY, rebuild. 4 DL/4 DB portal adds
(3/23) New DC Aldridge 1st time. Exp w/ Aub/Lib
(3/23) HC Harrell won job w/ 4-1 finish LY.
East Carolina Injury Report
NC State Notes
(11/21) Fr QB W Wilson got designed runs in FSU game
(11/5) RB Jayden Scott (Fr) huge vs GT. Name to watch
(10/12) Def really beat up & can't compete. Off regressing
(10/9) DB injury issues, nickel down to 5th option (ND wk)
(9/30) Run Def mauled by VT? Run Off awful, horrific loss
(9/30) Things could go south in a hurry for this program
(9/20) Def horrible, torched by Duke. Bailey TOs killed
(9/11) Run Off good vs Wake, Def bad but rallied
(9/11) CJ Bailey is a weapon, holds ball long at times
(9/11) Tackling is an issue, Def very inconsistent
(8/29) Run Def great vs ECU, run off a big concern
(7/28) Off only 5 portals, 3 OL & 2 TE, good sign?
NC State Injury Report
East Carolina on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ECU OffNCST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #67 #89
SuccessSuc #62 #59
ExplosiveExp #18 #113
PPAPPA #49 #86
PowerPwr #58 #67
SP+SP+ #33 #64
Pts POPPO #83 #67
HavocHav #50 #16
East Carolina Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ECU OffNCST Def
Run GameRun #37 #70
Run SuccessRSuc #71 #31
Run ExplRExp #48 #134
PPAExp #47 #111
Run BlockR Blk #124 -
OL YdsOLY #57 #83
Stuff RateStuff #65 #105
TackleTak -  #74
East Carolina Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ECU OffNCST Def
Pass GamePass #18 #97
Pass SuccessPSuc #54 #87
Pass ExplPExl #24 #22
PPAExp #54 #47
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #101 #65
F7 HavocF7 #42 #24
DB HavocDB #92 #16
NC State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatNCST OffECU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #52 #66
SuccessSuc #36 #40
ExplosiveExp #32 #100
PPAPPA #26 #64
PowerPwr #36 #87
SP+SP+ #45 #51
Pts POPPO #61 #76
HavocHav #122 #69
NC State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
NCST OffECU Def
Run GameRun #61 #52
Run SuccessRSuc #68 #11
Run ExplRExp #59 #84
PPAExp #56 #22
Run BlockR Blk #52 -
OL YdsOLY #36 #14
Stuff RateStuff #37 #11
TackleTak -  #127
NC State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatNCST OffECU Def
Pass GamePass #95 #57
Pass SuccessPSuc #20 #86
Pass ExplPExl #45 #98
PPAExp #24 #105
Pass Block/RushP Blk #46 #90
F7 HavocF7 #127 #48
DB HavocDB #83 #104
Program Comparison
NCST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

ECU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Carter-Finley Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 1
NC State -12.5 (58.5)
NC State won vs East Carolina this year (24-17)

Previous Matchups
NC State beat East Carolina last year (24-17)
East Carolina beat NC State in 2024 (26-21)

  
ECU's OC John David Baker (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Katin Houser26940866%33001968.1
Chaston Ditta122450%215309.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
London Montgomery15674274.851
Marlon Gunn11258265.250
TJ Engleman5930615.223
Parker Jenkins (Tr)7525623.417
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Smith641053716.572
Yannick Smith44583513.359
Brock Spalding42554313.255
Desirrio Riles28362212.942

View East Carolina's Full Roster

ECU's DC Josh Aldridge (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ja'Marley Riddle704006
DJ Johnson Jr.605120
Samuel Dankah587213
Teagan Wilk (Tr)542014
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zion Wilson4210641
Jasiyah Robinson267530
Kendrick DuJour (Tr)115411
Rion Roseborough (Tr)166310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ja'Marley Riddle704006
Teagan Wilk (Tr)542014
Jordy Lowery (Tr)272004

NCST's OC Kurt Roper (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
CJ Bailey27339769%31052597.8
Lex Thomas2729%18002.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Daylan Smothers16093965.965
Jayden Scott10659545.669
CJ Bailey8921562.430
Will Wilson43146103.416
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Terrell Anderson39629516.175
Justin Joly49489710.059
Wesley Grimes31458314.848
Noah Rogers31413213.348

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC D. J. Eliot (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caden Fordham14310443
Kenny Soares Jr. (Tr)804162
Asaad Brown Jr.640002
Cian Slone (Tr)6272161
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tra Thomas (Tr)246450
Caden Fordham14310443
Travali Price225441
Sabastian Harsh (Tr)4183133
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devon Marshall5000115
Jackson Vick452006
Brian Nelson II (Tr)291006