Memphis at East Carolina - 2025 Matchup Preview
Memphis logo Memphis Tigers at East Carolina PiratesEast Carolina logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (4:00 PM EST)
East Carolina -3 (56.5) (-148)  Open: -2.5
East Carolina 31 - Memphis: 27  (American Athletic)

 
Tigers (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Ryan Silverfield (41 - 21)
Avg Score : 33 - 23 (35 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#38)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
ECU 2nd straight Home Game
MEM is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: East Carolina -2.5  (SP+ MEM -1.5)

Projected Score: MEM: 27 - ECU: 30 (57)
ECU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
MEM Travel: 711 miles, 1 hrs behind
Pirates (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Blake Harrell (4 - 1)
Avg Score : 33 - 20 (36 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Memphis's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Memphis vs Chattanooga-30.555.5W 45 - 10UY
Sat 9/6 Memphis at Georgia State-14.557.5W 38 - 16UY
Sat 9/13 Memphis at Troy-4.551.5W 28 - 7UY
Sat 9/20 Memphis vs Arkansas+7.059.5W 32 - 31OY
Sat 9/27 Memphis at Florida Atlantic-14.062.5W 55 - 26OY
Sat 10/4 Memphis vs Tulsa-21.054.5W 45 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Memphis at UAB-23.559.5L 24 - 31UN
Sat 10/25 Memphis vs South Florida+3.558.5W 34 - 31OY
Fri 10/31 Memphis at Rice-13.548.5W 38 - 14OY
Fri 11/7 Memphis vs Tulane-3.053.5L 32 - 38ON
Sat 11/15 Memphis at East Carolina+3.056.5L 27 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/27 Memphis vs Navy-3.557.5L 17 - 28UN
Fri 12/19 Memphis vs NC State+6.056.5L 7 - 31UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Memphis's Schedule
East Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 East Carolina at NC State+12.558.5L 17 - 24UY
Sat 9/6 East Carolina vs Campbell-30.056.0W 56 - 3OY
Sat 9/13 East Carolina at Coastal Carolina-7.058.0W 38 - 0UY
Sat 9/20 East Carolina vs BYU+6.549.5L 13 - 34UN
Thu 9/25 East Carolina vs Army-3.552.5W 28 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 East Carolina at Tulane+7.053.5L 19 - 26UY
Thu 10/16 East Carolina vs Tulsa-16.554.5W 41 - 27ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 East Carolina at Temple-5.558.5W 45 - 14OY
Sat 11/8 East Carolina vs Charlotte-29.556.5W 48 - 22ON
Sat 11/15 East Carolina vs Memphis-3.056.5W 31 - 27OY
Sat 11/22 East Carolina at UTSA-2.062.5L 24 - 58ON
Sat 11/29 East Carolina at Florida Atlantic-6.566.5W 42 - 3UY
Sat 12/27 East Carolina vs Pittsburgh+13.551.5W 23 - 17UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for East Carolina's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MEM#25 (.26)45% (40)32.549% (16)3.33 (12)18342% (69)2284.41 (23)#91 (.19)42% (65)23.239% (32)45% (108)4 (100)48.10.91.5
ECU#34 (.22)46% (25)32.745% (51)3.04 (53)17149% (14)2593.76 (63)#35 (.09)38% (29)20.138% (20)39% (44)3.05 (21)58.411.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MEM#23 (.27)44% (57)46% (40)3.27 (31)17541% (71)2704.66 (14)#87 (.19)40% (47)40% (45)40% (62)4.05 (96)480.61.9
ECU#49 (.22)43% (62)44% (71)3.07 (57)14743% (54)2533.79 (83)#64 (.16)40% (40)37% (11)43% (86)3.85 (76)612.21.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MEM Offense1332.53545%4.410.9234121832285.148%50%49%42%14%.26
ECU Defense1320.119.838.3%3.051.5 - - - - - 46%52%38%39%19%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MEM Defense1323.220.841.6%41.5 - - - - - 50%49%39%45%17%.19
ECU Offense1332.736.246.5%3.761224301712594.352%46%45%49%13%.22

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Memphis1331:4222.742%56%5.548.10.91.561.6329.4
East Carolina1326:1522.550%45%6.858.411.57.22131.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MEM Offense1348% (78)49% (16)36.2183.25.134 (1).3 (6)3.33 (12)75% (49)10% (98)1.17 (7)
ECU Defense1346% (28)38% (20) - - - - .02 (25)2.5 (12)49% (1)14% (5)1.09 (121)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MEM Defense1350% (74)39% (32) - - - - .04 (34)2.58 (14)73% (85)11% (30)0.99 (87)
ECU Offense1352% (44)45% (51)39.8170.84.331 (30).12 (67)3.04 (53)69% (93)8% (32)0.84 (121)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MEM Offense1350% (60)42% (69)21.431.7228.47.210.717 (86)9 (88).23 (78)1.5 (94)32% (83)32% (43).34 (55)4% (12)2.1 (43)
ECU Defense1352% (114)39% (44) - - - - - - 9 (100).17 (36)1.4 (24)36% (13)28% (48).18 (26)6% (81)1.8 (22)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MEM Defense1349% (71)45% (108) - - - - - - 12 (6).37 (116)1.6 (105)32% (61)30% (79).37 (106)6% (49)2.1 (110)
ECU Offense1346% (90)49% (14)21.332.5259.1812.220 (61)6 (34).37 (32)1.5 (72)26% (11)37% (12).49 (13)5% (30)1.8 (115)

Memphis's Power Ratings
Memphis's Power Rating: 8.62  #45
Memphis's Offense Rating: 17.81  #24
Memphis's Defense Rating: 9.19  #74
2025 Talent Rating: 776.00  #60
Blue Chip Ratio: 6%  #49
Memphis's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 4.4
Memphis's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.5  #34
Memphis's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.5  #16
Memphis's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5  #72

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Memphis: 8.62   East Carolina: 11.73

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Memphis: 9.5   East Carolina: 8.1




East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: 11.73  #40
East Carolina's Offense Rating: 15.08  #40
East Carolina's Defense Rating: 4.72  #45
2025 Talent Rating: 690.00  #78
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
East Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
East Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.1  #40
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.1  #33
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.9  #53

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Memphis Scoring
Offense: 32.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 35
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.8

Memphis's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
East Carolina 30
Memphis 27


Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
East Carolina 33
Memphis 27

Total Points: 61

Based on Entire Season
East Carolina 28
Memphis 27

Total Points: 55
East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 32.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.2
Defense: 20.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.8

East Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/15East Carolina31Memphis27East Carolina -3East Carolina56.5Over
202210/15East Carolina47Memphis45East Carolina -5.5Memphis62.5Over
202111/13Memphis29East Carolina30Memphis -4East Carolina58.5Over
201811/03East Carolina41Memphis59Memphis -11Memphis66.5Over
201711/25Memphis70East Carolina13Memphis -29.5Memphis81.0Over
201210/13East Carolina41Memphis7
201110/15Memphis17East Carolina35
201009/11East Carolina49Memphis27
200910/27Memphis19East Carolina38
200810/18East Carolina30Memphis10
200711/03Memphis40East Carolina56
200609/16East Carolina35Memphis20
200510/22Memphis27East Carolina24
200411/20East Carolina35Memphis38
200311/01Memphis41East Carolina24
200110/20East Carolina32Memphis11
200010/06Memphis17East Carolina10
TeamWinsCoversO/U
East Carolina1125 Overs
Memphis630 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 62 - 32 - 20 - 1
Road Teams6 - 113 - 21 - 02 - 2

(#45) MEM at (#40) ECU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMEMECU
Power RatePwr #45 #40
SP+SP+ #34 #40
Perf GradeGrade #39 #73
OffenseOff #39 #61
DefenseDef #55 #87
Spec TeamsST #62 #78
TalentTal #60 #78
Blue ChipsBC% #49 #101
Memphis Notes
(12/18) Hired OC Kevin Decker (ODU's OC)
(12/11) Hired HC Charles Huff (So Miss/Marshall).
(11/28) 3 game losing streak to finish. Silverfield a poor job
(11/16) 2 L's when CFP was in sights. Finish vs Navy
(10/25) QB Brendon Lewis will play vs S. Florida
(10/19) Def torched by UAB, Off sputtered w/o QB Lewis
(10/10) Def much better than anticipated, 2nd in AAC in YPP
(9/24) Off run game mauled Arkansas, QB Lewis a runner
(9/19) Run heavy Off so far, took care of cupcakes
(8/13) Real $$, biggest NIL spender in the G5
(8/13) QB Lewis a weapon (Nev), wins QB1 job in fall
(6/17) 4* QB AJ Hill was the only blue chip QB to G5
Memphis Injury Report
East Carolina Notes
(12/17) Hired OC Jordan Davis (N Tex). Incredible hire
(8/29) QB Houser baller vs NC St, Pass Def bad in L
(7/25) WR duo A Smith & Y Smith good, 3 good portals
(7/12) QB Houser starting exp, beat Garcia (fo to Mich)
(7/12) RBs v strong, Montgomery/Gunn exp'd & deep
(3/23) OL 4/5 back, avg LY. 2 portals. Better TY
(3/23) Def awful LY, rebuild. 4 DL/4 DB portal adds
(3/23) New DC Aldridge 1st time. Exp w/ Aub/Lib
(3/23) HC Harrell won job w/ 4-1 finish LY.
East Carolina Injury Report
Memphis on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
MEM OffECU Def
Perf GradePerf #39 #87
SuccessSuc #40 #29
ExplosiveExp #32 #88
PPAPPA #25 #35
PowerPwr #24 #45
SP+SP+ #16 #53
Pts POPPO #23 #21
HavocHav #51 #13
Memphis Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
MEM OffECU Def
Run GameRun #29 #77
Run SuccessRSuc #16 #20
Run ExplRExp #7 #121
PPAExp #6 #25
Run BlockR Blk #23 -
OL YdsOLY #12 #12
Stuff RateStuff #75 #3
TackleTak -  #133
Memphis Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
MEM OffECU Def
Pass GamePass #50 #73
Pass SuccessPSuc #69 #44
Pass ExplPExl #94 #24
PPAExp #78 #36
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #32 #92
F7 HavocF7 #98 #5
DB HavocDB #12 #81
East Carolina on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatECU OffMEM Def
Perf GradePerf #61 #55
SuccessSuc #25 #65
ExplosiveExp #108 #108
PPAPPA #34 #91
PowerPwr #40 #74
SP+SP+ #33 #72
Pts POPPO #63 #100
HavocHav #27 #34
East Carolina Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ECU OffMEM Def
Run GameRun #34 #19
Run SuccessRSuc #51 #32
Run ExplRExp #121 #87
PPAExp #67 #34
Run BlockR Blk #116 -
OL YdsOLY #53 #14
Stuff RateStuff #14 #32
TackleTak -  #94
East Carolina Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatECU OffMEM Def
Pass GamePass #18 #110
Pass SuccessPSuc #14 #108
Pass ExplPExl #72 #105
PPAExp #32 #116
Pass Block/RushP Blk #105 #124
F7 HavocF7 #32 #30
DB HavocDB #30 #49
Program Comparison
ECU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

MEM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 70° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 12
East Carolina -3.0 (56.5)
East Carolina won vs Memphis this year (31-27)

Previous Matchups
East Carolina beat Memphis in 2022 (47-45)

  
MEM's OC Tim Cramsey (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brendon Lewis (Tr)25336869%26731677.3
AJ Hill193259%223117.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Sutton Smith10266976.684
Brendon Lewis (Tr)15266494.427
Gregory DeRosiers9956375.790
Frank Peasant (Tr)6227574.419
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cortez Braham63889814.173
Jamari Hawkins38623216.457
Marcello Bussey27287010.640
Brady Kluse22240210.925

View Memphis's Full Roster

MEM's DC Jordon Hankins (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sam Brumfield (Tr)9011520
Kamari Wilson (Tr)787114
Chris Bracy (Tr)717019
Drue Watts (Tr)69114102
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sam Brumfield (Tr)9011520
Drue Watts (Tr)69114102
Everett Roussaw Jr. (Tr)587314
William Whitlow Jr.316325
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Bracy (Tr)717019
Jeremiah Jordan192106
Omarion Cooper (Tr)391006

ECU's OC John David Baker (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Katin Houser26940866%33001968.1
Chaston Ditta122450%215309.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
London Montgomery15674274.851
Marlon Gunn11258265.250
TJ Engleman5930615.223
Parker Jenkins (Tr)7525623.417
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Smith641053716.572
Yannick Smith44583513.359
Brock Spalding42554313.255
Desirrio Riles28362212.942

View East Carolina's Full Roster

ECU's DC Josh Aldridge (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ja'Marley Riddle704006
DJ Johnson Jr.605120
Samuel Dankah587213
Dameon Wilson548121
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zion Wilson4210641
Jasiyah Robinson257530
Kendrick DuJour (Tr)115411
Rion Roseborough (Tr)166310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ja'Marley Riddle704006
Teagan Wilk (Tr)542014
Jordy Lowery (Tr)272004