Navy at Memphis - 2025 Matchup Preview
Navy logo Navy Midshipmen at Memphis TigersMemphis logo
Thursday, November 27th 2025 (7:30 PM EST)
Memphis -3.5 (57.5) (-175)  Open: -5.5 | 57.5
Navy 28 - Memphis: 17  (American Athletic)

 
Midshipmen (10 - 2) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Brian Newberry (14 - 10)
Avg Score : 31 - 26 (26 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.2 - 2.8 (#20)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
NAVY coming off BYE
MEM coming off BYE
Our Line: Memphis -12.5  (SP+ MEM -5)

Projected Score: NAVY: 23 - MEM: 35 (58)
MEM Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
NAVY Travel: 788 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Tigers (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Ryan Silverfield (41 - 21)
Avg Score : 33 - 23 (34 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#38)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Navy's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Navy vs VMI-42.554.5W 52 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Navy vs UAB-20.559.0W 38 - 24ON
Sat 9/13 Navy at Tulsa-14.052.5W 42 - 23OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Navy vs Rice-14.045.5W 21 - 13UN
Sat 10/4 Navy vs Air Force-13.550.5W 34 - 31ON
Sat 10/11 Navy at Temple-10.052.5W 32 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Navy vs Florida Atlantic-14.563.5W 42 - 32ON
Sat 11/1 Navy at North Texas+6.568.5L 17 - 31UN
Sat 11/8 Navy at Notre Dame+30.554.5L 10 - 49ON
Sat 11/15 Navy vs South Florida+8.562.5W 41 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/27 Navy at Memphis+3.557.5W 28 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 12/13 Navy vs Army-6.038.0W 17 - 16UN
Fri 1/2 Navy vs Cincinnati-4.054.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 6
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Navy's Schedule
Memphis's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Memphis vs Chattanooga-30.555.5W 45 - 10UY
Sat 9/6 Memphis at Georgia State-14.557.5W 38 - 16UY
Sat 9/13 Memphis at Troy-4.551.5W 28 - 7UY
Sat 9/20 Memphis vs Arkansas+7.059.5W 32 - 31OY
Sat 9/27 Memphis at Florida Atlantic-14.062.5W 55 - 26OY
Sat 10/4 Memphis vs Tulsa-21.054.5W 45 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Memphis at UAB-23.559.5L 24 - 31UN
Sat 10/25 Memphis vs South Florida+3.558.5W 34 - 31OY
Fri 10/31 Memphis at Rice-13.548.5W 38 - 14OY
Fri 11/7 Memphis vs Tulane-3.053.5L 32 - 38ON
Sat 11/15 Memphis at East Carolina+3.056.5L 27 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/27 Memphis vs Navy-3.557.5L 17 - 28UN
Fri 12/19 Memphis vs NC State+6.056.5L 7 - 31UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Memphis's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NAVY#16 (.31)49% (11)31.251% (5)3.44 (5)29043% (57)1324.13 (36)#115 (.23)42% (71)2640% (45)45% (111)4.24 (121)51.51.11.1
MEM#25 (.26)45% (40)32.549% (16)3.33 (12)18342% (69)2284.41 (23)#91 (.19)42% (65)23.239% (32)45% (108)4 (100)48.10.91.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NAVY#12 (.31)44% (51)46% (43)3.27 (32)23139% (101)1174.39 (26)#28 (.1)41% (61)46% (95)37% (24)3.48 (35)41.91.11.8
MEM#23 (.27)44% (57)46% (40)3.27 (31)17541% (71)2704.66 (14)#87 (.19)40% (47)40% (45)40% (62)4.05 (96)480.61.9



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NAVY Offense1231.225.848.8%4.131.1204222901325.975%23%51%43%10%.31
MEM Defense1323.224.241.6%41.5 - - - - - 50%49%39%45%17%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NAVY Defense122630.241.9%4.241.1 - - - - - 51%47%40%45%13%.23
MEM Offense1332.534.245%4.410.9234121832285.148%50%49%42%14%.26

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Navy1232:3120.351%67%651.51.11.14.52.2031.4
Memphis1331:4222.742%56%5.548.10.91.561.6329.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NAVY Offense1275% (3)51% (5)49.3289.85.939 (4).3 (7)3.44 (5)80% (17)7% (18)1.09 (24)
MEM Defense1350% (74)39% (32) - - - - .04 (34)2.58 (14)73% (85)11% (30)0.99 (87)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NAVY Defense1251% (84)40% (45) - - - - .12 (87)2.9 (74)76% (102)8% (111)1.02 (95)
MEM Offense1348% (78)49% (16)36.2183.25.134 (1).3 (6)3.33 (12)75% (49)10% (98)1.17 (7)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NAVY Offense1223% (134)43% (57)8.113.9131.89.516.310 (106)6 (20).45 (13)2 (3)24% (2)33% (40).52 (9)2% (2)2.4 (2)
MEM Defense1349% (71)45% (108) - - - - - - 12 (6).37 (116)1.6 (105)32% (61)30% (79).37 (106)6% (49)2.1 (110)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NAVY Defense1247% (49)45% (111) - - - - - - 6 (100).41 (127)1.6 (104)31% (88)31% (81).31 (73)4% (127)2 (52)
MEM Offense1350% (60)42% (69)21.431.7228.47.210.717 (86)9 (88).23 (78)1.5 (94)32% (83)32% (43).34 (55)4% (12)2.1 (43)

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: -6.29  #92
Navy's Offense Rating: 12.11  #51
Navy's Defense Rating: 18.40  #125
2025 Talent Rating: 116.00  #136
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Navy's 2025 Expected Record: 10.2 - 2.8
Navy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.1  #57
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.9  #27
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1  #89

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Navy: -6.29   Memphis: 11.56

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Navy: 4.1   Memphis: 9.5




Memphis's Power Ratings
Memphis's Power Rating: 11.56  #45
Memphis's Offense Rating: 17.81  #24
Memphis's Defense Rating: 9.19  #74
2025 Talent Rating: 776.00  #60
Blue Chip Ratio: 6  #49
Memphis's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 4.4
Memphis's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.5  #34
Memphis's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.5  #16
Memphis's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5  #72

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Navy Scoring
Offense: 31.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 26 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Navy's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 2
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Memphis 35
Navy 23


Total Points: 58

Based on Last 4 Games
Memphis 36
Navy 26

Total Points: 62

Based on Entire Season
Memphis 31
Navy 26

Total Points: 57
Memphis Scoring
Offense: 32.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.2
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

Memphis's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/27Memphis17Navy28Memphis -3.5Navy57.5Under
202409/21Navy56Memphis44Memphis -9.5Navy47.0Over
202309/14Memphis28Navy24Memphis -12.5Navy47.0Over
202209/10Navy13Memphis37Memphis -4.5Memphis47.5Over
202110/14Memphis35Navy17Memphis -11Memphis55.5Under
202011/28Navy7Memphis10Memphis -13.5Navy62.5Under
201909/26Memphis35Navy23Memphis -11Memphis53.5Over
201809/08Navy22Memphis21Memphis -7Navy67.0Under
201710/14Memphis30Navy27Memphis -3.5Navy73.0Under
201610/22Navy42Memphis28Memphis -2Navy57.0Over
201511/07Memphis20Navy45Memphis -8.5Navy62.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Memphis636 Overs
Navy585 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 46 - 52 - 44 - 1
Road Teams4 - 75 - 61 - 44 - 2

(#92) NAVY at (#45) MEM
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNAVYMEM
Power RatePwr #92 #45
SP+SP+ #57 #34
Perf GradeGrade #66 #39
OffenseOff #28 #39
DefenseDef #121 #55
Spec TeamsST #71 #62
TalentTal #136 #60
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #49
Navy Notes
(11/28) A gauntlet November ends w/ 2-2 record. Impressive
(11/28) 2 straight wins w/ impressive Def improvement.
(11/16) Run over by ND, Horvath didn't play. Def ugly
(11/16) Come back and kill USF? Mids are wild, AAC threat
(10/30) CB J Ross missed FAU game, very imp vs N Tex
(10/12) Keep eaking out close wins vs meh. But 6-0 w/ bad D
(9/24) Run Off good as ever, Horvath & Tecza good duo
(9/24) Def has been OK, good Success #'s but Expl issues
(7/28) Fav'd in 1st 8 games, but final four are rough
(5/25) QB Horvath back, 30 TDs LY, Woodson #2 some exp
(5/25) FB Tecza back, WB Heidenreich/Chatman back
(5/25) IOL back, need new OT's. Check fall roster
Navy Injury Report
Memphis Notes
(12/18) Hired OC Kevin Decker (ODU's OC)
(12/11) Hired HC Charles Huff (So Miss/Marshall).
(11/28) 3 game losing streak to finish. Silverfield a poor job
(11/16) 2 L's when CFP was in sights. Finish vs Navy
(10/25) QB Brendon Lewis will play vs S. Florida
(10/19) Def torched by UAB, Off sputtered w/o QB Lewis
(10/10) Def much better than anticipated, 2nd in AAC in YPP
(9/24) Off run game mauled Arkansas, QB Lewis a runner
(9/19) Run heavy Off so far, took care of cupcakes
(8/13) Real $$, biggest NIL spender in the G5
(8/13) QB Lewis a weapon (Nev), wins QB1 job in fall
(6/17) 4* QB AJ Hill was the only blue chip QB to G5
Memphis Injury Report
Navy on Offense
Option Offense 76%, Pass: 23%
CategoryCat
NAVY OffMEM Def
Perf GradePerf #28 #55
SuccessSuc #11 #65
ExplosiveExp #54 #108
PPAPPA #16 #91
PowerPwr #51 #74
SP+SP+ #27 #72
Pts POPPO #36 #100
HavocHav #4 #34
Navy Run Game
Option Offense 76%, Pass: 23%
CategoryCat
NAVY OffMEM Def
Run GameRun #17 #19
Run SuccessRSuc #5 #32
Run ExplRExp #24 #87
PPAExp #7 #34
Run BlockR Blk #37 -
OL YdsOLY #5 #14
Stuff RateStuff #1 #32
TackleTak -  #94
Navy Pass Game
Option Offense 76%, Pass: 23%
CategoryCat
NAVY OffMEM Def
Pass GamePass #33 #110
Pass SuccessPSuc #57 #108
Pass ExplPExl #3 #105
PPAExp #13 #116
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #113 #124
F7 HavocF7 #18 #30
DB HavocDB #2 #49
Memphis on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatMEM OffNAVY Def
Perf GradePerf #39 #121
SuccessSuc #40 #71
ExplosiveExp #32 #110
PPAPPA #25 #115
PowerPwr #24 #125
SP+SP+ #16 #89
Pts POPPO #23 #121
HavocHav #51 #125
Memphis Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
MEM OffNAVY Def
Run GameRun #29 #119
Run SuccessRSuc #16 #45
Run ExplRExp #7 #95
PPAExp #6 #87
Run BlockR Blk #23 -
OL YdsOLY #12 #74
Stuff RateStuff #75 #83
TackleTak -  #134
Memphis Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatMEM OffNAVY Def
Pass GamePass #50 #124
Pass SuccessPSuc #69 #111
Pass ExplPExl #94 #104
PPAExp #78 #127
Pass Block/RushP Blk #32 #73
F7 HavocF7 #98 #111
DB HavocDB #12 #127
Program Comparison
MEM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

NAVY 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 39°
Rematch from Week 14
Memphis -3.5 (57.5)
Navy won at Memphis this year (28-17)

Previous Matchups
Navy beat Memphis last year (56-44)
Memphis beat Navy in 2023 (28-24)
Memphis beat Navy in 2022 (37-13)

  
NAVY's OC Drew Cronic (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Horvath8814461%147210610.2
Braxton Woodson91947%110005.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Blake Horvath2081147155.559
Alex Tecza14282295.876
Eli Heidenreich6743736.525
Brandon Chatman5541537.536
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eli Heidenreich46877519.182
Brandon Chatman1615809.927
Cody Howard4128132.065
Alex Tecza12123110.329

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC P.J. Volker (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
MarcAnthony Parker937230
Giuseppe Sessi761000
Luke Pirris757443
Coleman Cauley683020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Landon Robinson588670
Julian Moutome375423
Adam Klenk305451
Luke Pirris757443
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ira Oniha241007
Justin Ross322134
Luke Pirris757443

MEM's OC Tim Cramsey (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brendon Lewis (Tr)25336869%26731677.3
AJ Hill193259%223117.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Sutton Smith10266976.684
Brendon Lewis (Tr)15266494.427
Gregory DeRosiers9956375.790
Frank Peasant (Tr)6227574.419
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cortez Braham63889814.173
Jamari Hawkins38623216.457
Marcello Bussey27287010.640
Brady Kluse22240210.925

View Memphis's Full Roster

MEM's DC Jordon Hankins (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sam Brumfield (Tr)9011520
Kamari Wilson (Tr)787114
Chris Bracy (Tr)717019
Drue Watts (Tr)69114102
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sam Brumfield (Tr)9011520
Drue Watts (Tr)69114102
Everett Roussaw Jr. (Tr)587314
William Whitlow Jr.316325
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Bracy (Tr)717019
Jeremiah Jordan192106
Omarion Cooper (Tr)391006