Middle Tennessee at Ole Miss - 2024 Matchup Preview

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Ole Miss Rebels

Saturday, September 7th 2024 (4:15 PM EDT)
Ole Miss -42.5 (60.5) (0) Open: -41.0 | 63.5
Ole Miss 52 - Middle Tennessee: 3

Blue Raiders (3 - 9) (3 - 8 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (21 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MISS 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Ole Miss -53 (SP+ MISS -52)
Projected Score: MTSU: 2 - MISS: 55 (57)
MISS Win prob: 100% | Cover: 56%
MTSU Travel: 206 miles

Rebels (10 - 3) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Lane Kiffin (34 - 15)
Avg Score : 37 - 21 (39 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MTSU Players
MISS Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Middle Tennessee's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Middle Tennessee vs Tennessee Tech	-11.5
Sat 9/7	Middle Tennessee at Ole Miss	+42.5	60.5	L 3 - 52	U	N
Sat 9/14	Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky	+10.5	53.5	L 21 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/21	Middle Tennessee vs Duke	+14.5	51.0	L 17 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/28	Middle Tennessee at Memphis	+27.0	62.0	L 7 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/10	Middle Tennessee at Louisiana Tech	+5.0	48.0	L 21 - 48	O	N
Tue 10/15	Middle Tennessee vs Kennesaw State	-8.5	50.0	W 14 - 5	U	Y
Wed 10/23	Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State	+20.5	64.5	L 20 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/2	Middle Tennessee at UTEP	+2.0	48.0	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Middle Tennessee vs Liberty	+12.5	54.5	L 17 - 37	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Middle Tennessee vs New Mexico State	-3.5	54.0	L 21 - 36	O	N
Sat 11/30	Middle Tennessee vs Florida International	+9.5	50.5	L 24 - 35	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule

Ole Miss's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Ole Miss vs Furman	-45.5	58.5	W 76 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Ole Miss vs Middle Tennessee	-42.5	60.5	W 52 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Ole Miss at Wake Forest	-20.5	65.5	W 40 - 6	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Ole Miss vs Georgia Southern	-35.0	68.5	W 52 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Ole Miss vs Kentucky	-15.0	51.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/5	Ole Miss at South Carolina	-10.0	53.0	W 27 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Ole Miss at LSU	-3.5	64.5	L 26 - 29	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	Ole Miss vs Oklahoma	-19.0	50.0	W 26 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/2	Ole Miss at Arkansas	-8.0	54.0	W 63 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Ole Miss vs Georgia	+1.5	54.5	W 28 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Ole Miss at Florida	-13.0	57.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
Fri 11/29	Ole Miss vs Mississippi State	-26.5	63.5	W 26 - 14	U	N
Thu 1/2	Ole Miss vs Duke	-17.5	50.5	W 52 - 20	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MTSU	#95 (.14)	39% (104)	22.4	41% (93)	3.08 (74)	126	39% (94)	266	3.2 (115)	#60 (.17)	43% (81)	30.9	45% (88)	42% (78)	4.13 (100)	56.3	1.8	1.3
MISS	#30 (.28)	44% (44)	36.9	44% (54)	2.94 (100)	176	45% (31)	286	4.72 (13)	#68 (.18)	42% (62)	21.1	43% (74)	41% (54)	3.64 (55)	59.1	0.5	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MTSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MISS		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MTSU Offense	12	22.4	20.8	39.4%	3.2	1.8	19	391	126	266	3.9	42%	57%	41%	39%	17%	.14
MISS Defense	13	21.1	15.6	41.6%	3.64	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	43%	41%	18%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MTSU Defense	12	30.9	29.3	42.9%	4.13	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	45%	42%	17%	.17
MISS Offense	13	36.9	39	44.4%	4.72	0.5	23	462	176	286	4.3	54%	45%	44%	45%	15%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Middle Tennessee	12	28:32	19.3	40%	45%	6.8	56.3	1.8	1.3	5.8	1.9	0	28.8
Ole Miss	13	27:43	23.5	37%	69%	7.2	59.1	0.5	1.4	5.9	2.6	1	29

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MTSU Offense	12	42% (117)	41% (93)	32	125.5	3.9	13 (108)	.1 (93)	3.08 (74)	79% (22)	11% (95)	1.08 (28)
MISS Defense	13	50% (62)	43% (74)	-	-	-	-	.14 (70)	3.21 (96)	86% (127)	11% (30)	0.98 (58)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MTSU Defense	12	47% (30)	45% (88)	-	-	-	-	.06 (24)	2.97 (43)	71% (57)	10% (65)	0.85 (13)
MISS Offense	13	54% (37)	44% (54)	41.1	176.5	4.3	29 (22)	.17 (60)	2.94 (100)	70% (95)	11% (80)	1.05 (44)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MTSU Offense	12	57% (18)	39% (94)	24.6	36.5	265.6	7.3	10.8	23 (51)	13 (97)	.24 (84)	1.6 (59)	34% (101)	26% (110)	.24 (94)	6% (70)	2.3 (6)
MISS Defense	13	49% (70)	41% (54)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.26 (59)	1.6 (79)	32% (65)	27% (26)	.23 (31)	7% (43)	2 (35)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MTSU Defense	12	52% (104)	42% (78)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.31 (96)	1.5 (47)	30% (104)	32% (90)	.35 (88)	7% (31)	2.2 (100)
MISS Offense	13	45% (97)	45% (31)	19.7	30.4	285.6	9.4	14.5	26 (31)	6 (14)	.45 (17)	1.7 (21)	32% (72)	33% (55)	.43 (39)	5% (22)	2.2 (28)

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -24.28 #130
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 15.21 #105
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 21.66 #131
2024 Talent Rating: 193.00 #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -24.4 #131
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.7 #131
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.3 #122

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 177.5
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -24.28 Ole Miss: 28.83

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -24.4 Ole Miss: 27.9

Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 28.83 #4
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 27.20 #8
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: 0.53 #4
2024 Talent Rating: 462.00 #20
Blue Chip Ratio: 33 #19
Ole Miss's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Ole Miss's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 27.9 #2
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #7
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 11.9 #3

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 511.63
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 22.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.8
Defense: 30.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.3

Middle Tennessee's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Ole Miss 55
Middle Tennessee 2

Projected Total Points: 57

Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 36.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 39
Defense: 21.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.6

Ole Miss's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/07	Ole Miss	52	Middle Tennessee	3	Ole Miss -42.5	Ole Miss	60.5	Under
2001	10/20	Ole Miss	45	Middle Tennessee	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ole Miss	2	1	0 Overs
Middle Tennessee	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#130) MTSU at (#4) MISS

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MTSU	MISS
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#130	#4
SP+SP+	#131	#2
Perf GradeGrade	#132	#6
OffenseOff	#125	#15
DefenseDef	#129	#3
Spec TeamsST	#120	#81
TalentTal	#119	#20
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#19

Middle Tennessee Notes(8/3) Will start 1-4, watch after bye on Oct 3
(10/22) Def stop rate 49% (#120) into week 9
(10/16) #3 Worst Rgame/OL in CFB. Ken St. dominated
(10/15) Given up 19 sacks, most in CUSA through week 8
(10/10) Killed by L.Tech, Def shreaded, Rgame awful
(10/4) Sched been brutal but Run Off/Def near bottom
(9/5) Lost best OL C Pierce (leg) for the season
(8/3) Def will be near last vs run, DL just poor
(7/30) QB Vattiato good dual threat has WR/TE weapons
(7/30) OL a huge ? but RB room is good/deep.
(7/30) Def portaled out, will take lumps early (often?)
(7/30) A D Mason team has to win with Off? Sept rough
Middle Tennessee Injury Report

Ole Miss Notes(11/29) Rgame good enough for Egg Bowl win. Dart meh
(11/23) Gagged season @ UF, 3 TO's, short yd disasters
(11/13) Killed UGA, Def great, Dart tough, Off good
(11/7) WR Harris likely play vs UGA but limited
(11/7) RB1 Parrish out for the Georgia game
(10/21) LSU only Off faced > 60, Ark,UGA,UF to go
(10/21) Even w/ LSU, 12 flags, 2 TOs, Dart meh cost em
(10/13) Season meltdown @ LSU. Dart avg, Def gagged
(10/10) OL injuries really hurting this Off. Dart pressure
(9/28) Shut down by UK. Run 92 yds (3.2 ypc). Shocking L
(7/30) No Tx/Bama/Tenn. Play SEC bottoms outside Vandy
(7/30) OL has 200+ starts, still some ? w/ portal adds
Ole Miss Injury Report

Middle Tennessee on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	MISS Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#125	#3
SuccessSuc	#104	#62
ExplosiveExp	#14	#69
PPAPPA	#95	#68
PowerPwr	#105	#4
SP+SP+	#131	#3
Pts POPPO	#115	#55
HavocHav	#89	#33

Middle Tennessee Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	MISS Def
Run GameRun	#77	#3
Run SuccessRSuc	#93	#74
Run ExplRExp	#28	#58
PPAExp	#93	#70
Run BlockR Blk	#126	-
OL YdsOLY	#74	#96
Stuff RateStuff	#87	#105
TackleTak	-	#1

Middle Tennessee Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	MISS Def
Pass GamePass	#33	#22
Pass SuccessPSuc	#94	#54
Pass ExplPExl	#59	#79
PPAExp	#84	#59
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#136	#4
F7 HavocF7	#95	#30
DB HavocDB	#70	#43

Ole Miss on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MISS Off	MTSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#15	#129
SuccessSuc	#44	#81
ExplosiveExp	#26	#23
PPAPPA	#30	#60
PowerPwr	#8	#131
SP+SP+	#7	#122
Pts POPPO	#13	#100
HavocHav	#60	#49

Ole Miss Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MISS Off	MTSU Def
Run GameRun	#55	#116
Run SuccessRSuc	#54	#88
Run ExplRExp	#44	#13
PPAExp	#60	#24
Run BlockR Blk	#89	-
OL YdsOLY	#100	#43
Stuff RateStuff	#123	#31
TackleTak	-	#83

Ole Miss Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MISS Off	MTSU Def
Pass GamePass	#1	#128
Pass SuccessPSuc	#31	#78
Pass ExplPExl	#21	#47
PPAExp	#17	#96
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#82	#131
F7 HavocF7	#80	#65
DB HavocDB	#22	#31

Program Comparison
MISS 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'24 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

MTSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 2
Ole Miss -42.5 (60.5)
Ole Miss won vs Middle Tennessee this year (52-3)

Previous Matchups
Ole Miss beat Middle Tennessee in 2024 (52-3)

MTSU's OC Bodie Reeder (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Nick Vattiato	269	418	64%	3092	16	10	7.4
Roman Gagliano	4	9	44%	41	0	0	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaiden Credle	109	471	4	4.3	66
Jekail Middlebrook	60	273	2	4.6	24
Terry Wilkins	54	214	1	4.0	23
Nick Vattiato	86	77	1	0.9	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Holden Willis	53	871	6	16.4	61
Omari Kelly (Tr)	53	869	4	16.4	71
Myles Butler	30	366	3	12.2	61
Cam'Ron Lacy	20	190	0	9.5	44

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Brian Stewart (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Williams (Tr)	75	3	0	0	3
Parker Hughes	69	2	0	1	0
Anthony Bynum	60	7	3	1	1
Jalen Davis	52	5	2	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Buckner	37	4	3	5	0
Anthony Bynum	60	7	3	1	1
Jalen Davis	52	5	2	0	1
Aidan Butts	10	2	2	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Tyrell Raby	16	0	6
Marvae Myers-Glover	41	1	4
Xavier Williams (Tr)	75	3	3

MISS's OC Charlie Weis Jr. (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaxson Dart	276	398	69%	4279	29	6	10.8
Austin Simmons	19	32	59%	282	2	0	8.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Henry Parrish Jr.	131	693	10	5.3	42
Jaxson Dart	124	495	3	4.0	35
Ulysses Bentley IV	84	419	5	5.0	89
Matt Jones	43	211	3	4.9	46

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tre Harris	61	1063	7	17.4	70
Jordan Watkins	49	906	9	18.5	75
Cayden Lee	57	874	2	15.3	58
Antwane Wells Jr. (Tr)	28	553	6	19.8	66

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC Bryan Brown (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chris Paul Jr. (Tr)	87	12	4	9	4
TJ Dottery	77	6	3	4	1
Trey Washington	64	4	0	2	7
Suntarine Perkins	60	14	11	8	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Suntarine Perkins	60	14	11	8	0
Princely Umanmielen (Tr)	37	14	11	13	0
Jared Ivey	41	10	8	8	3
Walter Nolen (Tr)	47	13	6	4	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Trey Amos (Tr)	50	4	0	13
Jadon Canady	38	3	0	11
Trey Washington	64	4	2	7