Ole Miss at LSU - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 12th 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
Ole Miss -3.5 (64.5) (-185) Open: -2.5 | 64.5
LSU 29 - Ole Miss: 26 (SEC)

Rebels (10 - 3) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Lane Kiffin (34 - 15)
Avg Score : 39 - 14 (35 - 19 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MISS 2nd straight Road Game
LSU coming off BYE
MISS is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Ole Miss -8.5 (SP+ MISS -12)
Projected Score: MISS: 33 - LSU: 25 (58)
MISS Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
MISS Travel: 289 miles

Tigers (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Brian Kelly (20 - 7)
Avg Score : 31 - 24 (32 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MISS Players
LSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Ole Miss's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Ole Miss vs Furman	-45.5	58.5	W 76 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Ole Miss vs Middle Tennessee	-42.5	60.5	W 52 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Ole Miss at Wake Forest	-20.5	65.5	W 40 - 6	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Ole Miss vs Georgia Southern	-35.0	68.5	W 52 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Ole Miss vs Kentucky	-15.0	51.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/5	Ole Miss at South Carolina	-10.0	53.0	W 27 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Ole Miss at LSU	-3.5	64.5	L 26 - 29	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	Ole Miss vs Oklahoma	-19.0	50.0	W 26 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/2	Ole Miss at Arkansas	-8.0	54.0	W 63 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Ole Miss vs Georgia	+1.5	54.5	W 28 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Ole Miss at Florida	-13.0	57.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
Fri 11/29	Ole Miss vs Mississippi State	-26.5	63.5	W 26 - 14	U	N
Thu 1/2	Ole Miss vs Duke	-17.5	50.5	W 52 - 20	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ole Miss's Schedule

LSU's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/1	LSU vs USC	-4.0	66.5	L 20 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/7	LSU vs Nicholls	-50.5	62.0	W 44 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/14	LSU at South Carolina	-7.0	50.0	W 36 - 33	O	N
Sat 9/21	LSU vs UCLA	-21.5	56.5	W 34 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/28	LSU vs South Alabama	-21.0	64.5	W 42 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	LSU vs Ole Miss	+3.5	64.5	W 29 - 26	U	Y
Sat 10/19	LSU at Arkansas	-3.0	57.0	W 34 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/26	LSU at Texas A&M	+2.0	54.5	L 23 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	LSU vs Alabama	+2.5	57.5	L 13 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/16	LSU at Florida	-3.0	57.0	L 16 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/23	LSU vs Vanderbilt	-10.0	53.0	W 24 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/30	LSU vs Oklahoma	-4.5	47.5	W 37 - 17	O	Y
Tue 12/31	LSU vs Baylor	+3.0	62.5	W 44 - 31	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MISS	#4 (.34)	47% (19)	38.6	44% (76)	3.02 (72)	164	51% (3)	317	4 (58)	#6 (.04)	35% (3)	14.4	35% (6)	36% (13)	2.98 (8)	68.5	0.9	1.6
LSU	#30 (.25)	45% (38)	30.5	42% (89)	2.92 (90)	108	47% (24)	291	3.99 (60)	#92 (.21)	41% (60)	24.3	41% (54)	41% (73)	3.44 (30)	45.7	1.2	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MISS	#4 (.34)	47% (19)		44% (76)	3.02 (72)	164	51% (3)	317	4 (58)	#6 (.04)	35% (3)		35% (6)	36% (13)	2.98 (8)	68.5	0.9	1.6
LSU	#30 (.25)	45% (38)		42% (89)	2.92 (90)	108	47% (24)	291	3.99 (60)	#92 (.21)	41% (60)		41% (54)	41% (73)	3.44 (30)	45.7	1.2	1

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MISS Offense	13	38.6	34.6	47.4%	4	0.9	23	481	164	317	4.6	50%	50%	44%	51%	15%	.34
LSU Defense	13	24.3	21.4	41.1%	3.44	1	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	41%	41%	18%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MISS Defense	13	14.4	18.6	35.3%	2.98	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	35%	36%	25%	.04
LSU Offense	13	30.5	31.9	44.9%	3.99	1.2	22	399	108	291	4.1	39%	61%	42%	47%	13%	.25

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Ole Miss	13	26:04	22.7	41%	59%	6.8	68.5	0.9	1.6	8.9	4.1	0	29.7
LSU	13	29:47	22.1	50%	50%	5.8	45.7	1.2	1	5.1	2.5	1	27.9

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MISS Offense	13	50% (75)	44% (76)	35.8	164.2	4.6	27 (30)	.15 (58)	3.02 (72)	71% (85)	10% (68)	1.09 (26)
LSU Defense	13	51% (67)	41% (54)	-	-	-	-	.18 (97)	2.94 (55)	84% (125)	12% (29)	1.23 (132)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MISS Defense	13	47% (25)	35% (6)	-	-	-	-	-.04 (4)	2.49 (7)	74% (71)	16% (1)	0.88 (23)
LSU Offense	13	39% (128)	42% (89)	26.4	108.2	4.1	14 (98)	.12 (79)	2.92 (90)	82% (13)	6% (5)	0.89 (103)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MISS Offense	13	50% (59)	51% (3)	20.5	30.5	317.2	10.4	15.4	27 (20)	6 (10)	.53 (3)	1.6 (46)	29% (28)	38% (7)	.63 (2)	5% (54)	2.3 (12)
LSU Defense	13	49% (69)	41% (73)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (117)	.25 (75)	1.6 (68)	35% (28)	31% (76)	.36 (93)	7% (41)	2.2 (104)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MISS Defense	13	53% (115)	36% (13)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.12 (20)	1.6 (85)	37% (5)	23% (1)	.1 (3)	8% (3)	2.1 (68)
LSU Offense	13	61% (7)	47% (24)	24.5	38.4	290.8	7.6	11.9	26 (26)	11 (72)	.33 (37)	1.5 (96)	33% (89)	37% (16)	.42 (28)	7% (97)	2 (84)

Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 24.76 #4
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 27.20 #8
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: 0.53 #4
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 33% #19
Ole Miss's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Ole Miss's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 27.9 #2
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #7
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 11.9 #3

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 24.76 LSU: 17.92

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 27.9 LSU: 15.9

LSU's Power Ratings
LSU's Power Rating: 17.92 #15
LSU's Offense Rating: 23.07 #38
LSU's Defense Rating: 8.72 #59
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 56 #7
LSU's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
LSU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.9 #15
LSU's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #11
LSU's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 38.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.6
Defense: 14.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.6

Ole Miss's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Ole Miss 33
LSU 25

Total Points: 58

Based on Last 4 Games
Ole Miss 26
LSU 24

Total Points: 49

Based on Entire Season
Ole Miss 30
LSU 24

Total Points: 54

LSU Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.9
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.4

LSU's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/27	Ole Miss	24	LSU	19	Ole Miss -2.5	Ole Miss	57.5	Under
2024	10/12	LSU	29	Ole Miss	26	Ole Miss -3.5	LSU	64.5	Under
2023	09/30	Ole Miss	55	LSU	49	LSU -3	Ole Miss	67.0	Over
2022	10/22	LSU	45	Ole Miss	20	Ole Miss -0.0	LSU	64.0	Over
2021	10/23	Ole Miss	31	LSU	17	Ole Miss -9.0	Ole Miss	76.5	Under
2020	12/19	LSU	53	Ole Miss	48	Ole Miss -0.0	LSU	74.5	Over
2019	11/16	Ole Miss	37	LSU	58	LSU -21	NA	66.0	Over
2018	09/29	LSU	45	Ole Miss	16	LSU -10.5	LSU	61.0	Push
2017	10/21	Ole Miss	24	LSU	40	LSU -6.5	LSU	59.0	Over
2016	10/22	LSU	38	Ole Miss	21	LSU -4.5	LSU	59.0	Push
2015	11/21	Ole Miss	38	LSU	17	Ole Miss -4.5	Ole Miss	58.5	Under
2014	10/25	LSU	10	Ole Miss	7	Ole Miss -3	LSU	0
2013	10/19	Ole Miss	27	LSU	24	LSU -8	Ole Miss	0
2012	11/17	LSU	41	Ole Miss	35
2011	11/19	Ole Miss	3	LSU	52
2010	11/20	LSU	43	Ole Miss	36
2009	11/21	Ole Miss	25	LSU	23
2008	11/22	LSU	13	Ole Miss	31
2007	11/17	Ole Miss	24	LSU	41
2006	11/18	LSU	23	Ole Miss	20
2005	11/19	Ole Miss	7	LSU	40
2004	11/20	LSU	27	Ole Miss	24
2003	11/22	Ole Miss	14	LSU	17
2001	10/27	LSU	24	Ole Miss	35
2000	11/10	Ole Miss	9	LSU	20

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
LSU	17	7	5 Overs
Ole Miss	8	5	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	16 - 9	11 - 1	7 - 0	4 - 1
Road Teams	9 - 16	1 - 11	1 - 4	0 - 7

(#4) MISS at (#15) LSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MISS	LSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#4	#15
SP+SP+	#2	#15
Perf GradeGrade	#6	#55
OffenseOff	#15	#62
DefenseDef	#3	#53
Spec TeamsST	#81	#103
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#19	#7

Ole Miss Notes(11/29) Rgame good enough for Egg Bowl win. Dart meh
(11/23) Gagged season @ UF, 3 TO's, short yd disasters
(11/13) Killed UGA, Def great, Dart tough, Off good
(11/7) WR Harris likely play vs UGA but limited
(11/7) RB1 Parrish out for the Georgia game
(10/21) LSU only Off faced > 60, Ark,UGA,UF to go
(10/21) Even w/ LSU, 12 flags, 2 TOs, Dart meh cost em
(10/13) Season meltdown @ LSU. Dart avg, Def gagged
(10/10) OL injuries really hurting this Off. Dart pressure
(9/28) Shut down by UK. Run 92 yds (3.2 ypc). Shocking L
(7/30) No Tx/Bama/Tenn. Play SEC bottoms outside Vandy
(7/30) OL has 200+ starts, still some ? w/ portal adds
Ole Miss Injury Report

LSU Injury Report

Ole Miss on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MISS Off	LSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#15	#53
SuccessSuc	#19	#60
ExplosiveExp	#8	#118
PPAPPA	#4	#92
PowerPwr	#8	#59
SP+SP+	#7	#33
Pts POPPO	#58	#30
HavocHav	#54	#30

Ole Miss Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MISS Off	LSU Def
Run GameRun	#55	#96
Run SuccessRSuc	#76	#54
Run ExplRExp	#26	#132
PPAExp	#58	#97
Run BlockR Blk	#89	-
OL YdsOLY	#72	#55
Stuff RateStuff	#92	#50
TackleTak	-	#38

Ole Miss Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MISS Off	LSU Def
Pass GamePass	#1	#78
Pass SuccessPSuc	#3	#73
Pass ExplPExl	#46	#68
PPAExp	#3	#75
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#82	#6
F7 HavocF7	#68	#29
DB HavocDB	#54	#41

LSU on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	LSU Off	MISS Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#62	#3
SuccessSuc	#38	#3
ExplosiveExp	#57	#78
PPAPPA	#30	#6
PowerPwr	#38	#4
SP+SP+	#11	#3
Pts POPPO	#60	#8
HavocHav	#26	#1

LSU Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	LSU Off	MISS Def
Run GameRun	#89	#3
Run SuccessRSuc	#89	#6
Run ExplRExp	#103	#23
PPAExp	#79	#4
Run BlockR Blk	#95	-
OL YdsOLY	#90	#7
Stuff RateStuff	#52	#19
TackleTak	-	#1

LSU Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	LSU Off	MISS Def
Pass GamePass	#29	#22
Pass SuccessPSuc	#24	#13
Pass ExplPExl	#96	#85
PPAExp	#37	#20
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#46	#4
F7 HavocF7	#5	#1
DB HavocDB	#97	#3

Program Comparison
LSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'24 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

MISS 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'24 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Tiger Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 76°

Rematch from Week 7
Ole Miss 3.5 (64.5)
LSU won vs Ole Miss this year (29-26)

Previous Matchups
LSU beat Ole Miss last year (29-26)
Ole Miss beat LSU in 2023 (55-49)
LSU beat Ole Miss in 2022 (45-20)

MISS's OC Charlie Weis Jr. (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaxson Dart	276	398	69%	4279	29	6	10.8
Austin Simmons	19	32	59%	282	2	0	8.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Henry Parrish Jr.	131	693	10	5.3	42
Jaxson Dart	124	495	3	4.0	35
Ulysses Bentley IV	84	419	5	5.0	89
Matt Jones	43	211	3	4.9	46

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tre Harris	61	1063	7	17.4	70
Jordan Watkins	49	906	9	18.5	75
Cayden Lee	57	874	2	15.3	58
Antwane Wells Jr. (Tr)	28	553	6	19.8	66

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC Bryan Brown (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chris Paul Jr. (Tr)	87	12	4	9	4
TJ Dottery	77	6	3	4	1
Trey Washington	64	4	0	2	7
Suntarine Perkins	60	14	11	8	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Suntarine Perkins	60	14	11	8	0
Princely Umanmielen (Tr)	37	14	11	13	0
Jared Ivey	41	10	8	8	3
Walter Nolen (Tr)	47	13	6	4	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Trey Amos (Tr)	50	4	0	13
Jadon Canady	38	3	0	11
Trey Washington	64	4	2	7

LSU's OC Joe Sloan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Garrett Nussmeier	336	524	64%	4039	29	12	7.7
Rickie Collins	5	5	100%	35	0	0	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caden Durham	138	754	6	5.5	86
Josh Williams	117	482	6	4.1	23
Kaleb Jackson	47	149	0	3.2	19
Zavion Thomas (Tr)	9	76	0	8.4	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Aaron Anderson	61	875	5	14.3	76
Kyren Lacy	58	866	9	14.9	35
Mason Taylor	55	546	2	9.9	33
C.J. Daniels (Tr)	42	480	0	11.4	34

View LSU's Full Roster

LSU's DC Blake Baker (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Whit Weeks	111	8	3	4	4
Greg Penn III	83	5	2	8	0
Bradyn Swinson	57	13	9	8	3
Jardin Gilbert (Tr)	52	2	1	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bradyn Swinson	57	13	9	8	3
Savion Jones	40	7	4	8	2
Whit Weeks	111	8	3	4	4
Dominick McKinley	7	3	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ashton Stamps	50	0	0	2	11
Whit Weeks	111	8	3	4	4
Zy Alexander	33	3	1	0	4