Ole Miss at LSU - 2024 Matchup Preview
Ole Miss logo (#13)Ole Miss Rebels at LSU Tigers(#3)LSU logo
Saturday, October 12th 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
Ole Miss -3.5 (64.5) (-185)  Open: -2.5 | 64.5
LSU 29 - Ole Miss: 26  (SEC)

 
Rebels (10 - 3) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Lane Kiffin (34 - 15)
Avg Score : 39 - 14 (35 - 19 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 4) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
MISS 2nd straight Road Game
LSU coming off BYE
MISS is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Ole Miss -8.5   (SP+ MISS -12)

Projected Score: MISS: 34 - LSU: 25 (59)
MISS Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
MISS Travel: 289 miles
Tigers (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Brian Kelly (20 - 7)
Avg Score : 31 - 24 (32 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
Ole Miss's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Ole Miss vs Furman-45.558.5W 76 - 0OY
Sat 9/7 Ole Miss vs Middle Tennessee-42.560.5W 52 - 3UY
Sat 9/14 Ole Miss at Wake Forest-20.565.5W 40 - 6UY
Sat 9/21 Ole Miss vs Georgia Southern-35.068.5W 52 - 13UY
Sat 9/28 Ole Miss vs Kentucky-15.051.5L 17 - 20UN
Sat 10/5 Ole Miss at South Carolina-10.053.0W 27 - 3UY
Sat 10/12 Ole Miss at LSU-3.564.5L 26 - 29UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 Ole Miss vs Oklahoma-19.050.0W 26 - 14UN
Sat 11/2 Ole Miss at Arkansas-8.054.0W 63 - 31OY
Sat 11/9 Ole Miss vs Georgia+1.554.5W 28 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Ole Miss at Florida-13.057.5L 17 - 24UN
Fri 11/29 Ole Miss vs Mississippi State-26.563.5W 26 - 14UN
Thu 1/2 Ole Miss vs Duke-17.550.5W 52 - 20OY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ole Miss's Schedule
LSU's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 9/1 LSU vs USC-4.066.5L 20 - 27UN
Sat 9/7 LSU vs Nicholls-50.562.0W 44 - 21ON
Sat 9/14 LSU at South Carolina-7.050.0W 36 - 33ON
Sat 9/21 LSU vs UCLA-21.556.5W 34 - 17UN
Sat 9/28 LSU vs South Alabama-21.064.5W 42 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 LSU vs Ole Miss+3.564.5W 29 - 26UY
Sat 10/19 LSU at Arkansas-3.057.0W 34 - 10UY
Sat 10/26 LSU at Texas A&M+2.054.5L 23 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 LSU vs Alabama+2.557.5L 13 - 42UN
Sat 11/16 LSU at Florida-3.057.0L 16 - 27UN
Sat 11/23 LSU vs Vanderbilt-10.053.0W 24 - 17UN
Sat 11/30 LSU vs Oklahoma-4.547.5W 37 - 17OY
Tue 12/31 LSU vs Baylor+3.062.5W 44 - 31OY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for LSU's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MISS#4 (.34)47% (19)38.644% (76)3.02 (72)16451% (3)3174 (58)#6 (.04)35% (3)14.435% (6)36% (13)2.98 (8)68.50.91.6
LSU#30 (.25)45% (38)30.542% (89)2.92 (90)10847% (24)2913.99 (60)#92 (.21)41% (60)24.341% (54)41% (73)3.44 (30)45.71.21
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MISS#4 (.34)47% (19)44% (76)3.02 (72)16451% (3)3174 (58)#6 (.04)35% (3)35% (6)36% (13)2.98 (8)68.50.91.6
LSU#30 (.25)45% (38)42% (89)2.92 (90)10847% (24)2913.99 (60)#92 (.21)41% (60)41% (54)41% (73)3.44 (30)45.71.21



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MISS Offense1338.634.647.4%40.9234811643174.650%50%44%51%15%.34
LSU Defense1324.321.441.1%3.441 - - - - - 51%49%41%41%18%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MISS Defense1314.418.635.3%2.981.6 - - - - - 47%53%35%36%25%.04
LSU Offense1330.531.944.9%3.991.2223991082914.139%61%42%47%13%.25

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ole Miss1326:0422.741%59%6.868.50.91.68.94.1029.7
LSU1329:4722.150%50%5.845.71.215.12.5127.9
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MISS Offense1350% (75)44% (76)35.8164.24.627 (30).15 (58)3.02 (72)71% (85)10% (68)1.09 (26)
LSU Defense1351% (67)41% (54) - - - - .18 (97)2.94 (55)84% (125)12% (29)1.23 (132)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MISS Defense1347% (25)35% (6) - - - - -.04 (4)2.49 (7)74% (71)16% (1)0.88 (23)
LSU Offense1339% (128)42% (89)26.4108.24.114 (98).12 (79)2.92 (90)82% (13)6% (5)0.89 (103)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MISS Offense1350% (59)51% (3)20.530.5317.210.415.427 (20)6 (10).53 (3)1.6 (46)29% (28)38% (7).63 (2)5% (54)2.3 (12)
LSU Defense1349% (69)41% (73) - - - - - - 5 (117).25 (75)1.6 (68)35% (28)31% (76).36 (93)7% (41)2.2 (104)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MISS Defense1353% (115)36% (13) - - - - - - 11 (52).12 (20)1.6 (85)37% (5)23% (1).1 (3)8% (3)2.1 (68)
LSU Offense1361% (7)47% (24)24.538.4290.87.611.926 (26)11 (72).33 (37)1.5 (96)33% (89)37% (16).42 (28)7% (97)2 (84)

Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 24.76 #4
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 27.20 #8
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: 0.53 #4
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 33% #19
Ole Miss's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Ole Miss's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 27.9 #2
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #7
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 11.9 #3

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 24.76   LSU: 17.92

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 27.9   LSU: 15.9




LSU's Power Ratings
LSU's Power Rating: 17.92 #15
LSU's Offense Rating: 23.07 #38
LSU's Defense Rating: 8.72 #59
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 56 #7
LSU's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
LSU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.9 #15
LSU's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #11
LSU's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 38.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.6
Defense: 14.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.6

Ole Miss's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Ole Miss 34
LSU 25


Total Points: 59

LSU Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.9
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.4

LSU's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/12LSU29Ole Miss26LSUOle Miss -3.5LSU64.5Under
202309/30Ole Miss55LSU49Ole MissLSU -3Ole Miss67.0Over
202210/22LSU45Ole Miss20LSUOle Miss -0.0LSU64.0Over
202110/23Ole Miss31LSU17Ole MissOle Miss -9.0Ole Miss76.5Under
202012/19LSU53Ole Miss48LSUOle Miss -0.0LSU74.5Over
201911/16Ole Miss37LSU58LSULSU -21NA66.0Over
201809/29LSU45Ole Miss16LSULSU -10.5LSU61.0Push
201710/21Ole Miss24LSU40LSULSU -6.5LSU59.0Over
201610/22LSU38Ole Miss21LSULSU -4.5LSU59.0Push
201511/21Ole Miss38LSU17Ole MissOle Miss -4.5Ole Miss58.5Under
201410/25LSU10Ole Miss7LSUOle Miss -3LSU0
201310/19Ole Miss27LSU24Ole MissLSU -8Ole Miss0
201211/17LSU41Ole Miss35LSU
201111/19Ole Miss3LSU52LSU
201011/20LSU43Ole Miss36LSU
200911/21Ole Miss25LSU23Ole Miss
200811/22LSU13Ole Miss31Ole Miss
200711/17Ole Miss24LSU41LSU
200611/18LSU23Ole Miss20LSU
200511/19Ole Miss7LSU40LSU
200411/20LSU27Ole Miss24LSU
200311/22Ole Miss14LSU17LSU
200110/27LSU24Ole Miss35Ole Miss
200011/10Ole Miss9LSU20LSU
TeamWinsCoversO/U
LSU1775 Overs
Ole Miss743 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 910 - 16 - 04 - 1
Road Teams9 - 151 - 101 - 40 - 6

(#4) Ole Miss Info
Power Rating: 24.76 #4
Offense Rating: 27.20 #8
Defense Rating: 0.53 #4
Overall SP+ Rating: 27.9 #2
Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #7
Defense SP+ Rating: 11.9 #3
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 33% #19
Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Great Offense Success Rate of 47%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Great Pass Success 51%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 35%
Great in Scoring Position 2.98 PPO
Great Run Def Success 35%
Great Pass Def Success 36%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Ole Miss has won 1 straight
Ole Miss has won 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 3 - 2 (3 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

Ole Miss Notes
(11/23) Gagged season @ UF, 3 TO's, short yd disasters
(11/13) Killed UGA, Def great, Dart tough, Off good
(11/7) WR Harris likely play vs UGA but limited
(11/7) RB1 Parrish out for the Georgia game
(10/21) LSU only Off faced > 60, Ark,UGA,UF to go
(10/21) Even w/ LSU, 12 flags, 2 TOs, Dart meh cost em
(10/13) Season meltdown @ LSU. Dart avg, Def gagged
(10/10) OL injuries really hurting this Off. Dart pressure
(9/28) Shut down by UK. Run 92 yds (3.2 ypc). Shocking L
(7/30) No Tx/Bama/Tenn. Play SEC bottoms outside Vandy

Ole Miss Highlights
Ole Miss offense is efficent (#17)
Ole Miss offense is explosive (#79)
Ole Miss Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Ole Miss has a really good defense (#75)
Ole Miss defense is really good in red zone (#50)
Ole Miss has a good run defense (#104)
Ole Miss has a good pass defense (#33)
Ole Miss Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#131)
Ole Miss Defensive Line is very good (#132)
Ole Miss Front 7 is disruptive (#125)
Ole Miss Secondary is very good (#20)
Ole Miss has a great TO Margin (#82)

Ole Miss Deficiencies
Ole Miss Commits a Lot of Penalties (#103)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatLSUMISS
OverallOver#39#6
OffenseOff#52#15
DefenseDef#39#3
Special TeamsST#86#68
PassingPass#24#1
RushingRush#64#38
Run BlockRBLK#73#70
Pass BlockPBLK#46#72
Route RunningWR Rt#23#6
TacklingTkl#34#1
Run DefenseR Def#76#3
Pass Rush DefPRush#6#4
Coverage DefCov#64#16

Rematch from Week 7
Ole Miss 3.5 (64.5)
LSU won vs Ole Miss this year (29-26)

Previous Matchups
LSU beat Ole Miss last year (29-26)
Ole Miss beat LSU in 2023 (55-49)
LSU beat Ole Miss in 2022 (45-20)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Tiger Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MISS | LSU
Depth Chart: MISS | LSU
Rosters: MISS | LSU
(#15) LSU Info
Power Rating: 17.92 #15
Offense Rating: 23.07 #38
Defense Rating: 8.72 #59
Overall SP+ Rating: 15.9 #15
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #11
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #33
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 56 #7
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
Good Offense Success Rate of 45%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.99 PPO
Poor Run Success 42%
Good Pass Success 47%
Avg OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Good in Scoring Position 3.44 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Bad Pass Def Success 41%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

LSU has won 4 straight
LSU has won 3 straight at Home
Record at home: 6 - 1 (3 - 4 - 0 vs Spread)

LSU Highlights
LSU offense is good on 3rd downs
LSU Defense Sacks the QB a lot

LSU defense is really good in red zone (#40)
LSU Front 7 is disruptive (#120)

LSU Deficiencies
LSU Can Not Run the Ball (#116)
LSU gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#19)


  
Ole Miss's OC Charlie Weis Jr.
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaxson Dart27639869%427929610.8
Austin Simmons193259%282208.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Henry Parrish Jr.131693105.342
Jaxson Dart12449534.035
Ulysses Bentley IV8441955.089
Matt Jones4321134.946
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Harris611063717.470
Jordan Watkins49906918.575
Cayden Lee57874215.358
Antwane Wells Jr. (Tr)28553619.866

View Ole Miss's Full Roster
Ole Miss's DC Pete Golding
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Paul Jr. (Tr)8712494
TJ Dottery776341
Trey Washington644027
Suntarine Perkins60141180
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Suntarine Perkins60141180
Princely Umanmielen (Tr)371411130
Jared Ivey4110883
Walter Nolen (Tr)4713642
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey Amos (Tr)5040013
Jadon Canady3830011
Trey Washington644027

LSU's OC Joe Sloan
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Garrett Nussmeier33652464%403929127.7
Rickie Collins55100%35007.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caden Durham13875465.586
Josh Williams11748264.123
Kaleb Jackson4714903.219
Zavion Thomas (Tr)97608.426
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Aaron Anderson61875514.376
Kyren Lacy58866914.935
Mason Taylor5554629.933
C.J. Daniels (Tr)42480011.434

View LSU's Full Roster
LSU's DC Blake Baker
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Whit Weeks1118344
Greg Penn III835280
Bradyn Swinson5713983
Jardin Gilbert (Tr)522102
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bradyn Swinson5713983
Savion Jones407482
Whit Weeks1118344
Dominick McKinley73310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ashton Stamps5000211
Whit Weeks1118344
Zy Alexander333104