Ole Miss at Florida Game Matchup
Ole Miss logo Ole Miss Rebels at Florida GatorsFlorida logo
Saturday, November 23rd 2024 (12:00 PM EST)
Ole Miss -13 (57.5) (-470)  Open: -6.5
Florida 24 - Ole Miss: 17  (SEC)

 
Rebels (10 - 3) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Lane Kiffin (34 - 15)
Avg Score : 39 - 14 (35 - 19 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
FLA 2nd straight Home Game
MISS coming off BYE
FLA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Ole Miss -10   (SP+ MISS -14)

Projected Score: MISS: 32 - FLA: 22 (52)
MISS Win prob: 80% | Cover: 46%
MISS Travel: 532 miles, 1 hrs behind
Gators (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (11 - 14)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (29 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Ole Miss's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Ole Miss vs Furman-45.558.5W 76 - 0OY
Sat 9/7 Ole Miss vs Middle Tennessee-42.560.5W 52 - 3UY
Sat 9/14 Ole Miss at Wake Forest-20.565.5W 40 - 6UY
Sat 9/21 Ole Miss vs Georgia Southern-35.068.5W 52 - 13UY
Sat 9/28 Ole Miss vs Kentucky-15.051.5L 17 - 20UN
Sat 10/5 Ole Miss at South Carolina-10.053.0W 27 - 3UY
Sat 10/12 Ole Miss at LSU-3.564.5L 26 - 29UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 Ole Miss vs Oklahoma-19.050.0W 26 - 14UN
Sat 11/2 Ole Miss at Arkansas-8.054.0W 63 - 31OY
Sat 11/9 Ole Miss vs Georgia+1.554.5W 28 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Ole Miss at Florida-13.057.5L 17 - 24UN
Fri 11/29 Ole Miss vs Mississippi State-26.563.5W 26 - 14UN
Thu 1/2 Ole Miss vs Duke-17.550.5W 52 - 20OY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ole Miss's Schedule
Florida's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Florida vs Miami+2.554.5L 17 - 41ON
Sat 9/7 Florida vs Samford-38.555.5W 45 - 7UN
Sat 9/14 Florida vs Texas A&M+4.547.0L 20 - 33ON
Sat 9/21 Florida at Mississippi State-6.558.0W 45 - 28OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Florida vs UCF+1.062.0W 24 - 13UY
Sat 10/12 Florida at Tennessee+13.554.5L 17 - 23UY
Sat 10/19 Florida vs Kentucky+2.542.5W 48 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2 Florida vs Georgia+14.552.5L 20 - 34OY
Sat 11/9 Florida at Texas+24.548.5L 17 - 49ON
Sat 11/16 Florida vs LSU+3.057.0W 27 - 16UY
Sat 11/23 Florida vs Ole Miss+13.057.5W 24 - 17UY
Sat 11/30 Florida at Florida State-17.545.5W 31 - 11UY
Fri 12/20 Florida vs Tulane-10.050.5W 33 - 8UY

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 5, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 5, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MISS#30 (.28)44% (44)38.644% (54)2.94 (100)17645% (31)2864.72 (13)#68 (.18)42% (62)14.443% (74)41% (54)3.64 (55)59.10.51.4
FLA#39 (.27)44% (47)28.343% (63)3.11 (69)15245% (36)2574.7 (14)#106 (.24)38% (26)23.136% (15)40% (45)4.08 (93)49.610.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MISS0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FLA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MISS Offense1338.634.644.4%4.720.5234621762864.354%45%44%45%15%.28
FLA Defense1223.12137.9%4.080.6 - - - - - 50%49%36%40%16%.24
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MISS Defense1314.418.641.6%3.641.4 - - - - - 50%49%43%41%18%.18
FLA Offense1228.329.343.9%4.71224091522574.348%52%43%45%16%.27

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ole Miss1327:4323.537%69%7.259.10.51.45.92.6129
Florida1233:0621.637%41%6.649.610.64.91.8026.4
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MISS Offense1354% (37)44% (54)41.1176.54.329 (22).17 (60)2.94 (100)70% (95)11% (80)1.05 (44)
FLA Defense1250% (71)36% (15) - - - - .16 (84)2.97 (44)59% (8)10% (62)1.28 (132)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MISS Defense1350% (62)43% (74) - - - - .14 (70)3.21 (96)86% (127)11% (30)0.98 (58)
FLA Offense1248% (88)43% (63)35.2151.64.321 (54).17 (59)3.11 (69)72% (85)12% (114)1 (64)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MISS Offense1345% (97)45% (31)19.730.4285.69.414.526 (31)6 (14).45 (17)1.7 (21)32% (72)33% (55).43 (39)5% (22)2.2 (28)
FLA Defense1249% (71)40% (45) - - - - - - 3 (132).35 (107)1.9 (129)34% (39)28% (37).34 (82)6% (82)2.3 (120)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MISS Defense1349% (70)41% (54) - - - - - - 13 (26).26 (59)1.6 (79)32% (65)27% (26).23 (31)7% (43)2 (35)
FLA Offense1252% (40)45% (36)23.432.4257.27.91120 (70)5 (6).37 (33)1.6 (76)32% (79)30% (74).43 (38)4% (13)2.1 (48)

Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 24.76 #4
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 27.20 #8
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: 0.53 #4
2024 Talent Rating: 848.00 #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 33% #19
Ole Miss's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Ole Miss's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 27.9 #2
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #7
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 11.9 #3

Ole Miss's SP+ Ratings
Ole Miss's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 27.9 #2
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #7
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 11.9 #3

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 901
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 24.76   Florida: 14.61

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 27.9   Florida: 13.8




Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 14.61 #19
Florida's Offense Rating: 21.48 #52
Florida's Defense Rating: 7.04 #44
2024 Talent Rating: 930.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 46 #11
Florida's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Florida's SP+ Ratings
Florida's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.8 #20
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.7 #37
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #23

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 901
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 38.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.6
Defense: 14.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.6

Ole Miss's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Ole Miss 32
Florida 22


Projected Total Points: 52
Florida Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.3
Defense: 23.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

Florida's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/23Florida24Ole Miss17FloridaOle Miss -13Florida57.5Under
202009/26Ole Miss35Florida51FloridaFlorida -13.5Florida59.5Over
201510/03Florida38Ole Miss10FloridaOle Miss -6.5Florida50.5Under
200809/27Florida30Ole Miss31Ole Miss
200709/22Ole Miss24Florida30Florida
200310/04Florida17Ole Miss20Ole Miss
200210/05Ole Miss17Florida14Ole Miss
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida431 Overs
Ole Miss302 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 42 - 10 - 02 - 1
Road Teams4 - 31 - 21 - 20 - 0

(#4) Ole Miss Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 24.76 #4
Offense Rating: 27.20 #8
Defense Rating: 0.53 #4
Overall SP+ Rating: 27.9 #2
Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #7
Defense SP+ Rating: 11.9 #3
Talent Rating: 848.00 #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 33% #19
Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Great Offense Success Rate of 47%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Great Pass Success 51%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 35%
Great in Scoring Position 2.98 PPO
Great Run Def Success 35%
Great Pass Def Success 36%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Ole Miss Notes
(11/23) Gagged season @ UF, 3 TO's, short yd disasters
(11/13) Killed UGA, Def great, Dart tough, Off good
(11/7) WR Harris likely play vs UGA but limited
(11/7) RB1 Parrish out for the Georgia game
(10/21) LSU only Off faced > 60, Ark,UGA,UF to go
(10/21) Even w/ LSU, 12 flags, 2 TOs, Dart meh cost em
(10/13) Season meltdown @ LSU. Dart avg, Def gagged
(10/10) OL injuries really hurting this Off. Dart pressure
(9/28) Shut down by UK. Run 92 yds (3.2 ypc). Shocking L
(7/30) No Tx/Bama/Tenn. Play SEC bottoms outside Vandy
Ole Miss     Ratings Matchup     Florida
Power #4
#19
Off #8
#52
Def #4
#44
Talent #21
#15
SP+ #2
#20
SP+ Off #7
#37
SP+ Def #3
#23

Rematch from Week 13
Ole Miss 13.0 (57.5)
Florida won vs Ole Miss this year (24-17)

Previous Matchups
Florida beat Ole Miss last year (24-17)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 63° - Wind: 8 mph


Team Information
Injuries: MISS | FLA
Depth Chart: MISS | FLA
Rosters: MISS | FLA
(#19) Florida Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 14.61 #19
Offense Rating: 21.48 #52
Defense Rating: 7.04 #44
Overall SP+ Rating: 13.8 #20
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.7 #37
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #23
Talent Rating: 930.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 46 #11
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 43%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.17 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Good OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 44%
Great in Scoring Position 3.12 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Good Pass Def Success 39%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position



  
Ole Miss's OC Charlie Weis Jr.
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Austin Simmons193259%282208.8
Walker Howard020%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Henry Parrish Jr.131693105.342
Matt Jones4321134.946
Domonique Thomas (Tr)4219714.722
Rashad Amos (Tr)97508.342
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cayden Lee57874215.358
Antwane Wells Jr. (Tr)28553619.866
Dae'Quan Wright (Tr)26361413.935
Henry Parrish Jr.158205.516

View Ole Miss's Full Roster
Ole Miss's DC Pete Golding
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Paul Jr. (Tr)8712494
TJ Dottery776341
Suntarine Perkins60141180
Trey Amos (Tr)5040013
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Suntarine Perkins60141180
Princely Umanmielen (Tr)371411130
Walter Nolen (Tr)4713642
Chris Paul Jr. (Tr)8712494
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey Amos (Tr)5040013
Jadon Canady3830011
Isaiah Hamilton (Tr)171006

Florida's OC Rob Sale
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Lagway11519260%191512910.0
Aidan Warner215042%228034.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jadan Baugh13367375.155
Ja'Kobi Jackson9350075.420
D.J. Lagway5110102.022
Treyaun Webb219314.414
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijhah Badger (Tr)39806420.777
Chimere Dike (Tr)42783218.644
Eugene Wilson19266114.085
Hayden Hansen15207113.840

View Florida's Full Roster
Florida's DC Austin Armstrong
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trikweze Bridges (Tr)681005
Jack Pyburn604100
Jordan Castell551009
Jaden Robinson524410
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyreak Sapp4613750
George Gumbs369642
Caleb Banks217561
Jaden Robinson524410
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Castell551009
Trikweze Bridges (Tr)681005
Bryce Thornton412013