Ole Miss at Florida - 2024 Matchup Preview

Ole Miss Rebels at Florida Gators

Saturday, November 23rd 2024 (12:00 PM EST)
Ole Miss -13 (57.5) (-470) Open: -6.5
Florida 24 - Ole Miss: 17 (SEC)

Rebels (10 - 3) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Lane Kiffin (34 - 15)
Avg Score : 37 - 21 (34 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

FLA 2nd straight Home Game
MISS coming off BYE
FLA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Ole Miss -10.5 (SP+ MISS -14)
Projected Score: MISS: 33 - FLA: 23 (56)
MISS Win prob: 80% | Cover: 46%
MISS Travel: 532 miles, 1 hrs behind

Gators (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (11 - 14)
Avg Score : 22 - 24 (29 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MISS Players
FLA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Ole Miss's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Ole Miss vs Furman	-45.5	58.5	W 76 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Ole Miss vs Middle Tennessee	-42.5	60.5	W 52 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Ole Miss at Wake Forest	-20.5	65.5	W 40 - 6	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Ole Miss vs Georgia Southern	-35.0	68.5	W 52 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Ole Miss vs Kentucky	-15.0	51.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/5	Ole Miss at South Carolina	-10.0	53.0	W 27 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Ole Miss at LSU	-3.5	64.5	L 26 - 29	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	Ole Miss vs Oklahoma	-19.0	50.0	W 26 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/2	Ole Miss at Arkansas	-8.0	54.0	W 63 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Ole Miss vs Georgia	+1.5	54.5	W 28 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Ole Miss at Florida	-13.0	57.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
Fri 11/29	Ole Miss vs Mississippi State	-26.5	63.5	W 26 - 14	U	N
Thu 1/2	Ole Miss vs Duke	-17.5	50.5	W 52 - 20	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ole Miss's Schedule

Florida's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Florida vs Miami	+2.5	54.5	L 17 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/7	Florida vs Samford	-38.5	55.5	W 45 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/14	Florida vs Texas A&M	+4.5	47.0	L 20 - 33	O	N
Sat 9/21	Florida at Mississippi State	-6.5	58.0	W 45 - 28	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Florida vs UCF	+1.0	62.0	W 24 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Florida at Tennessee	+13.5	54.5	L 17 - 23	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Florida vs Kentucky	+2.5	42.5	W 48 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Florida vs Georgia	+14.5	52.5	L 20 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Florida at Texas	+24.5	48.5	L 17 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/16	Florida vs LSU	+3.0	57.0	W 27 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Florida vs Ole Miss	+13.0	57.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Florida at Florida State	-17.5	45.5	W 31 - 11	U	Y
Fri 12/20	Florida vs Tulane	-10.0	50.5	W 33 - 8	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MISS	#30 (.28)	44% (44)	36.9	44% (54)	2.94 (100)	176	45% (31)	286	4.72 (13)	#68 (.18)	42% (62)	21.1	43% (74)	41% (54)	3.64 (55)	59.1	0.5	1.4
FLA	#39 (.27)	44% (47)	21.6	43% (63)	3.11 (69)	152	45% (36)	257	4.7 (14)	#106 (.24)	38% (26)	24	36% (15)	40% (45)	4.08 (93)	49.6	1	0.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MISS		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FLA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MISS Offense	13	36.9	34.3	44.4%	4.72	0.5	23	462	176	286	4.3	54%	45%	44%	45%	15%	.28
FLA Defense	12	24	18.7	37.9%	4.08	0.6	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	36%	40%	16%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MISS Defense	13	21.1	27.8	41.6%	3.64	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	43%	41%	18%	.18
FLA Offense	12	21.6	29	43.9%	4.7	1	22	409	152	257	4.3	48%	52%	43%	45%	16%	.27

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Ole Miss	13	27:43	23.5	37%	69%	7.2	59.1	0.5	1.4	5.9	2.6	1	29
Florida	12	33:06	21.6	37%	41%	6.6	49.6	1	0.6	4.9	1.8	0	26.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MISS Offense	13	54% (37)	44% (54)	41.1	176.5	4.3	29 (22)	.17 (60)	2.94 (100)	70% (95)	11% (80)	1.05 (44)
FLA Defense	12	50% (71)	36% (15)	-	-	-	-	.16 (84)	2.97 (44)	59% (8)	10% (62)	1.28 (132)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MISS Defense	13	50% (62)	43% (74)	-	-	-	-	.14 (70)	3.21 (96)	86% (127)	11% (30)	0.98 (58)
FLA Offense	12	48% (88)	43% (63)	35.2	151.6	4.3	21 (54)	.17 (59)	3.11 (69)	72% (85)	12% (114)	1 (64)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MISS Offense	13	45% (97)	45% (31)	19.7	30.4	285.6	9.4	14.5	26 (31)	6 (14)	.45 (17)	1.7 (21)	32% (72)	33% (55)	.43 (39)	5% (22)	2.2 (28)
FLA Defense	12	49% (71)	40% (45)	-	-	-	-	-	-	3 (132)	.35 (107)	1.9 (129)	34% (39)	28% (37)	.34 (82)	6% (82)	2.3 (120)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MISS Defense	13	49% (70)	41% (54)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.26 (59)	1.6 (79)	32% (65)	27% (26)	.23 (31)	7% (43)	2 (35)
FLA Offense	12	52% (40)	45% (36)	23.4	32.4	257.2	7.9	11	20 (70)	5 (6)	.37 (33)	1.6 (76)	32% (79)	30% (74)	.43 (38)	4% (13)	2.1 (48)

Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 24.76 #4
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 27.20 #8
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: 0.53 #4
2024 Talent Rating: 462.00 #20
Blue Chip Ratio: 33% #19
Ole Miss's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Ole Miss's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 27.9 #2
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #7
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 11.9 #3

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 511.63
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 24.76 Florida: 15.705

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 27.9 Florida: 13.8

Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 15.705 #19
Florida's Offense Rating: 21.48 #52
Florida's Defense Rating: 7.04 #44
2024 Talent Rating: 529.00 #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 46 #11
Florida's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Florida's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.8 #20
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.7 #37
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #23

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 511.63
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 36.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.3
Defense: 21.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.8

Ole Miss's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Ole Miss 33
Florida 23

Projected Total Points: 56

Florida Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.7

Florida's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/15	Ole Miss	34	Florida	24	Ole Miss -10.5	Florida	53.5	Over
2024	11/23	Florida	24	Ole Miss	17	Ole Miss -13	Florida	57.5	Under
2020	09/26	Ole Miss	35	Florida	51	Florida -13.5	Florida	59.5	Over
2015	10/03	Florida	38	Ole Miss	10	Ole Miss -6.5	Florida	50.5	Under
2008	09/27	Florida	30	Ole Miss	31
2007	09/22	Ole Miss	24	Florida	30
2003	10/04	Florida	17	Ole Miss	20
2002	10/05	Ole Miss	17	Florida	14

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Florida	4	4	2 Overs
Ole Miss	4	0	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 4	2 - 2	0 - 1	2 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 4	2 - 2	1 - 2	1 - 0

(#4) MISS at (#19) FLA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MISS	FLA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#4	#19
SP+SP+	#2	#20
Perf GradeGrade	#6	#29
OffenseOff	#15	#25
DefenseDef	#3	#63
Spec TeamsST	#81	#50
TalentTal	#20	#12
Blue ChipsBC%	#19	#11

Ole Miss Notes(11/29) Rgame good enough for Egg Bowl win. Dart meh
(11/23) Gagged season @ UF, 3 TO's, short yd disasters
(11/13) Killed UGA, Def great, Dart tough, Off good
(11/7) WR Harris likely play vs UGA but limited
(11/7) RB1 Parrish out for the Georgia game
(10/21) LSU only Off faced > 60, Ark,UGA,UF to go
(10/21) Even w/ LSU, 12 flags, 2 TOs, Dart meh cost em
(10/13) Season meltdown @ LSU. Dart avg, Def gagged
(10/10) OL injuries really hurting this Off. Dart pressure
(9/28) Shut down by UK. Run 92 yds (3.2 ypc). Shocking L
(7/30) No Tx/Bama/Tenn. Play SEC bottoms outside Vandy
(7/30) OL has 200+ starts, still some ? w/ portal adds
Ole Miss Injury Report

Florida Injury Report

Ole Miss on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MISS Off	FLA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#15	#63
SuccessSuc	#44	#26
ExplosiveExp	#26	#133
PPAPPA	#30	#106
PowerPwr	#8	#44
SP+SP+	#7	#23
Pts POPPO	#13	#93
HavocHav	#60	#74

Ole Miss Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MISS Off	FLA Def
Run GameRun	#55	#18
Run SuccessRSuc	#54	#15
Run ExplRExp	#44	#132
PPAExp	#60	#84
Run BlockR Blk	#89	-
OL YdsOLY	#100	#44
Stuff RateStuff	#123	#56
TackleTak	-	#66

Ole Miss Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MISS Off	FLA Def
Pass GamePass	#1	#110
Pass SuccessPSuc	#31	#45
Pass ExplPExl	#21	#129
PPAExp	#17	#107
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#82	#55
F7 HavocF7	#80	#62
DB HavocDB	#22	#82

Florida on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	FLA Off	MISS Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#25	#3
SuccessSuc	#47	#62
ExplosiveExp	#61	#69
PPAPPA	#39	#68
PowerPwr	#52	#4
SP+SP+	#37	#3
Pts POPPO	#14	#55
HavocHav	#78	#33

Florida Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	FLA Off	MISS Def
Run GameRun	#79	#3
Run SuccessRSuc	#63	#74
Run ExplRExp	#64	#58
PPAExp	#59	#70
Run BlockR Blk	#12	-
OL YdsOLY	#69	#96
Stuff RateStuff	#92	#105
TackleTak	-	#1

Florida Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	FLA Off	MISS Def
Pass GamePass	#62	#22
Pass SuccessPSuc	#36	#54
Pass ExplPExl	#76	#79
PPAExp	#33	#59
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#18	#4
F7 HavocF7	#114	#30
DB HavocDB	#13	#43

Program Comparison
FLA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'24 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

MISS 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'24 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
Ole Miss 13.0 (57.5)
Florida won vs Ole Miss this year (24-17)

Previous Matchups
Ole Miss beat Florida last year (34-24)
Florida beat Ole Miss in 2024 (24-17)

MISS's OC Charlie Weis Jr. (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaxson Dart	276	398	69%	4279	29	6	10.8
Austin Simmons	19	32	59%	282	2	0	8.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Henry Parrish Jr.	131	693	10	5.3	42
Jaxson Dart	124	495	3	4.0	35
Ulysses Bentley IV	84	419	5	5.0	89
Matt Jones	43	211	3	4.9	46

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tre Harris	61	1063	7	17.4	70
Jordan Watkins	49	906	9	18.5	75
Cayden Lee	57	874	2	15.3	58
Antwane Wells Jr. (Tr)	28	553	6	19.8	66

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC Bryan Brown (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chris Paul Jr. (Tr)	87	12	4	9	4
TJ Dottery	77	6	3	4	1
Trey Washington	64	4	0	2	7
Suntarine Perkins	60	14	11	8	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Suntarine Perkins	60	14	11	8	0
Princely Umanmielen (Tr)	37	14	11	13	0
Jared Ivey	41	10	8	8	3
Walter Nolen (Tr)	47	13	6	4	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Trey Amos (Tr)	50	4	0	13
Jadon Canady	38	3	0	11
Trey Washington	64	4	2	7

FLA's OC Rob Sale (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
D.J. Lagway	115	192	60%	1915	12	9	10.0
Graham Mertz	72	94	77%	791	6	2	8.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jadan Baugh	133	673	7	5.1	55
Montrell Johnson	100	593	6	5.9	71
Ja'Kobi Jackson	93	500	7	5.4	20
D.J. Lagway	51	101	0	2.0	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elijhah Badger (Tr)	39	806	4	20.7	77
Chimere Dike (Tr)	42	783	2	18.6	44
Eugene Wilson	19	266	1	14.0	85
Hayden Hansen	15	207	1	13.8	40

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Austin Armstrong (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trikweze Bridges (Tr)	68	1	0	0	5
Shemar James	64	4	2	2	3
Jack Pyburn	60	4	1	0	0
Jordan Castell	55	1	0	0	9

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyreak Sapp	46	13	7	5	0
George Gumbs	36	9	6	4	2
Caleb Banks	21	7	5	6	1
Jaden Robinson	52	4	4	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jordan Castell	55	1	0	9
Trikweze Bridges (Tr)	68	1	0	5
Jason Marshall Jr.	20	2	3	4