Ole Miss at Florida - 2024 Matchup Preview
Ole Miss logo Ole Miss Rebels at Florida GatorsFlorida logo
Saturday, November 23rd 2024 (12:00 PM EST)
Ole Miss -13 (57.5) (-470)  Open: -6.5
Florida 24 - Ole Miss: 17  (SEC)

 
Rebels (10 - 3) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Lane Kiffin (34 - 15)
Avg Score : 39 - 14 (35 - 19 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
FLA 2nd straight Home Game
MISS coming off BYE
FLA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Ole Miss -10.5  (SP+ MISS -14)

Projected Score: MISS: 34 - FLA: 23 (57)
MISS Win prob: 80% | Cover: 46%
MISS Travel: 532 miles, 1 hrs behind
Gators (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (11 - 14)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (29 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 5) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Ole Miss's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Ole Miss vs Furman-45.558.5W 76 - 0OY
Sat 9/7 Ole Miss vs Middle Tennessee-42.560.5W 52 - 3UY
Sat 9/14 Ole Miss at Wake Forest-20.565.5W 40 - 6UY
Sat 9/21 Ole Miss vs Georgia Southern-35.068.5W 52 - 13UY
Sat 9/28 Ole Miss vs Kentucky-15.051.5L 17 - 20UN
Sat 10/5 Ole Miss at South Carolina-10.053.0W 27 - 3UY
Sat 10/12 Ole Miss at LSU-3.564.5L 26 - 29UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 Ole Miss vs Oklahoma-19.050.0W 26 - 14UN
Sat 11/2 Ole Miss at Arkansas-8.054.0W 63 - 31OY
Sat 11/9 Ole Miss vs Georgia+1.554.5W 28 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Ole Miss at Florida-13.057.5L 17 - 24UN
Fri 11/29 Ole Miss vs Mississippi State-26.563.5W 26 - 14UN
Thu 1/2 Ole Miss vs Duke-17.550.5W 52 - 20OY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ole Miss's Schedule
Florida's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Florida vs Miami+2.554.5L 17 - 41ON
Sat 9/7 Florida vs Samford-38.555.5W 45 - 7UN
Sat 9/14 Florida vs Texas A&M+4.547.0L 20 - 33ON
Sat 9/21 Florida at Mississippi State-6.558.0W 45 - 28OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Florida vs UCF+1.062.0W 24 - 13UY
Sat 10/12 Florida at Tennessee+13.554.5L 17 - 23UY
Sat 10/19 Florida vs Kentucky+2.542.5W 48 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2 Florida vs Georgia+14.552.5L 20 - 34OY
Sat 11/9 Florida at Texas+24.548.5L 17 - 49ON
Sat 11/16 Florida vs LSU+3.057.0W 27 - 16UY
Sat 11/23 Florida vs Ole Miss+13.057.5W 24 - 17UY
Sat 11/30 Florida at Florida State-17.545.5W 31 - 11UY
Fri 12/20 Florida vs Tulane-10.050.5W 33 - 8UY

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 5, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 5, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MISS#4 (.34)47% (19)38.644% (76)3.02 (72)16451% (3)3174 (58)#6 (.04)35% (3)14.435% (6)36% (13)2.98 (8)68.50.91.6
FLA#72 (.18)43% (64)28.345% (54)3.04 (66)16441% (82)2264.17 (46)#53 (.14)44% (95)23.149% (118)39% (44)3.12 (14)541.41.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MISS#4 (.34)47% (19)44% (76)3.02 (72)16451% (3)3174 (58)#6 (.04)35% (3)35% (6)36% (13)2.98 (8)68.50.91.6
FLA#72 (.18)43% (64)45% (54)3.04 (66)16441% (82)2264.17 (46)#53 (.14)44% (95)49% (118)39% (44)3.12 (14)541.41.9



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MISS Offense1338.634.647.4%40.9234811643174.650%50%44%51%15%.34
FLA Defense1323.12143.9%3.121.9 - - - - - 51%49%49%39%18%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MISS Defense1314.418.635.3%2.981.6 - - - - - 47%53%35%36%25%.04
FLA Offense1328.329.343%4.171.4193891642264.654%46%45%41%16%.18

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ole Miss1326:0422.741%59%6.868.50.91.68.94.1029.7
Florida1328:3519.239%47%5.9541.41.96.43.1130.2
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MISS Offense1350% (75)44% (76)35.8164.24.627 (30).15 (58)3.02 (72)71% (85)10% (68)1.09 (26)
FLA Defense1351% (71)49% (118) - - - - .13 (73)3.06 (78)67% (29)11% (37)0.84 (10)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MISS Defense1347% (25)35% (6) - - - - -.04 (4)2.49 (7)74% (71)16% (1)0.88 (23)
FLA Offense1354% (42)45% (54)35.4163.74.626 (36).14 (63)3.04 (66)79% (27)9% (56)0.94 (82)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MISS Offense1350% (59)51% (3)20.530.5317.210.415.427 (20)6 (10).53 (3)1.6 (46)29% (28)38% (7).63 (2)5% (54)2.3 (12)
FLA Defense1349% (67)39% (44) - - - - - - 14 (23).16 (34)1.6 (87)31% (86)37% (124).42 (108)7% (43)2 (58)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MISS Defense1353% (115)36% (13) - - - - - - 11 (52).12 (20)1.6 (85)37% (5)23% (1).1 (3)8% (3)2.1 (68)
FLA Offense1346% (91)41% (82)1626.1225.78.714.118 (68)14 (115).25 (73)1.6 (48)31% (54)28% (105).22 (107)7% (90)1.8 (118)

Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 24.76  #4
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 27.20  #8
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: 0.53  #4
2024 Talent Rating: 848.00  #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 33%  #19
Ole Miss's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Ole Miss's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 27.9  #2
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7  #7
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 11.9  #3

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 901
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 24.76   Florida: 15.705

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 27.9   Florida: 13.8




Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 15.705  #19
Florida's Offense Rating: 21.48  #52
Florida's Defense Rating: 7.04  #44
2024 Talent Rating: 930.00  #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 46  #11
Florida's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Florida's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.8  #20
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.7  #37
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.0  #23

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 901
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 38.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.6
Defense: 14.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.6

Ole Miss's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Ole Miss 34
Florida 23


Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
Ole Miss 32
Florida 29

Total Points: 61

Based on Entire Season
Ole Miss 29
Florida 23

Total Points: 52
Florida Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.3
Defense: 23.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

Florida's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/23Florida24Ole Miss17Ole Miss -13Florida57.5Under
202009/26Ole Miss35Florida51Florida -13.5Florida59.5Over
201510/03Florida38Ole Miss10Ole Miss -6.5Florida50.5Under
200809/27Florida30Ole Miss31
200709/22Ole Miss24Florida30
200310/04Florida17Ole Miss20
200210/05Ole Miss17Florida14
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida431 Overs
Ole Miss302 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 42 - 10 - 02 - 1
Road Teams4 - 31 - 21 - 20 - 0

(#4) MISS at (#19) FLA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMISSFLA
Power RatePwr #4 #19
SP+SP+ #2 #20
Perf GradeGrade #6 #29
OffenseOff #15 #25
DefenseDef #3 #63
Spec TeamsST #81 #50
TalentTal #21 #15
Blue ChipsBC% #19 #11

Ole Miss Notes
(11/29) Rgame good enough for Egg Bowl win. Dart meh
(11/23) Gagged season @ UF, 3 TO's, short yd disasters
(11/13) Killed UGA, Def great, Dart tough, Off good
(11/7) WR Harris likely play vs UGA but limited
(11/7) RB1 Parrish out for the Georgia game
(10/21) LSU only Off faced > 60, Ark,UGA,UF to go
(10/21) Even w/ LSU, 12 flags, 2 TOs, Dart meh cost em
(10/13) Season meltdown @ LSU. Dart avg, Def gagged
(10/10) OL injuries really hurting this Off. Dart pressure
(9/28) Shut down by UK. Run 92 yds (3.2 ypc). Shocking L
(7/30) No Tx/Bama/Tenn. Play SEC bottoms outside Vandy
Ole Miss on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MISS OffFLA Def
Perf GradePerf #15 #63
SuccessSuc #19 #95
ExplosiveExp #8 #32
PPAPPA #4 #53
PowerPwr #8 #44
SP+SP+ #7 #23
Pts POPPO #58 #14
HavocHav #54 #36
Ole Miss Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MISS OffFLA Def
Run GameRun #55 #18
Run SuccessRSuc #76 #118
Run ExplRExp #26 #10
PPAExp #58 #73
Run BlockR Blk #89 -
OL YdsOLY #72 #78
Stuff RateStuff #92 #84
TackleTak -  #66
Ole Miss Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MISS OffFLA Def
Pass GamePass #1 #110
Pass SuccessPSuc #3 #44
Pass ExplPExl #46 #87
PPAExp #3 #34
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #82 #55
F7 HavocF7 #68 #37
DB HavocDB #54 #43
Florida on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCatFLA OffMISS Def
Perf GradePerf #25 #3
SuccessSuc #64 #3
ExplosiveExp #93 #78
PPAPPA #72 #6
PowerPwr #52 #4
SP+SP+ #37 #3
Pts POPPO #46 #8
HavocHav #68 #1
Florida Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
FLA OffMISS Def
Run GameRun #79 #3
Run SuccessRSuc #54 #6
Run ExplRExp #82 #23
PPAExp #63 #4
Run BlockR Blk #12 -
OL YdsOLY #66 #7
Stuff RateStuff #77 #19
TackleTak -  #1
Florida Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCatFLA OffMISS Def
Pass GamePass #62 #22
Pass SuccessPSuc #82 #13
Pass ExplPExl #48 #85
PPAExp #73 #20
Pass Block/RushP Blk #18 #4
F7 HavocF7 #56 #1
DB HavocDB #90 #3
Program Comparison
FLA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

MISS 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 63° - Wind: 8 mph
Rematch from Week 13
Ole Miss 13.0 (57.5)
Florida won vs Ole Miss this year (24-17)

Previous Matchups
Florida beat Ole Miss last year (24-17)

  
MISS's OC Charlie Weis Jr. (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaxson Dart27639869%427929610.8
Austin Simmons193259%282208.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Henry Parrish Jr.131693105.342
Jaxson Dart12449534.035
Ulysses Bentley IV8441955.089
Matt Jones4321134.946
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Harris611063717.470
Jordan Watkins49906918.575
Cayden Lee57874215.358
Antwane Wells Jr. (Tr)28553619.866

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC Pete Golding (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Paul Jr. (Tr)8712494
TJ Dottery776341
Trey Washington644027
Suntarine Perkins60141180
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Suntarine Perkins60141180
Princely Umanmielen (Tr)371411130
Jared Ivey4110883
Walter Nolen (Tr)4713642
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey Amos (Tr)5040013
Jadon Canady3830011
Trey Washington644027

FLA's OC Rob Sale (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Lagway11519260%191512910.0
Graham Mertz729477%791628.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jadan Baugh13367375.155
Montrell Johnson10059365.971
Ja'Kobi Jackson9350075.420
D.J. Lagway5110102.022
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijhah Badger (Tr)39806420.777
Chimere Dike (Tr)42783218.644
Eugene Wilson19266114.085
Hayden Hansen15207113.840

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Austin Armstrong (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trikweze Bridges (Tr)681005
Shemar James644223
Jack Pyburn604100
Jordan Castell551009
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyreak Sapp4613750
George Gumbs369642
Caleb Banks217561
Jaden Robinson524410
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Castell551009
Trikweze Bridges (Tr)681005
Jason Marshall Jr.202034