Kentucky at Ole Miss - 2024 Matchup Preview
Kentucky logo Kentucky Wildcats at Ole Miss Rebels(#13)Ole Miss logo
Saturday, September 28th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Ole Miss -15 (51.5) (-700)  Open: -16.5
Kentucky 20 - Ole Miss: 17  (SEC)

 
Wildcats (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (73 - 65)
Avg Score : 21 - 22 (18 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
MISS 2nd straight Home Game
MISS is playing their 5th straight game
UK is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Ole Miss -25  (SP+ MISS -22)

Projected Score: UK: 11 - MISS: 36 (48)
MISS Win prob: 85% | Cover: 46%
UK Travel: 378 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Rebels (10 - 3) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Lane Kiffin (34 - 15)
Avg Score : 39 - 14 (40 - 11 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Kentucky vs Southern Miss-25.550.5W 31 - 0UY
Sat 9/7 Kentucky vs South Carolina-9.541.5L 6 - 31UN
Sat 9/14 Kentucky vs Georgia+24.045.0L 12 - 13UY
Sat 9/21 Kentucky vs Ohio-19.042.0W 41 - 6OY
Sat 9/28 Kentucky at Ole Miss+15.051.5W 20 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Kentucky vs Vanderbilt-12.544.5L 13 - 20UN
Sat 10/19 Kentucky at Florida-2.542.5L 20 - 48ON
Sat 10/26 Kentucky vs Auburn-2.043.5L 10 - 24UN
Sat 11/2 Kentucky at Tennessee+17.545.5L 18 - 28OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Kentucky vs Murray State-41.554.5W 48 - 6UY
Sat 11/23 Kentucky at Texas+18.547.0L 14 - 31UY
Sat 11/30 Kentucky vs Louisville+3.548.5L 14 - 41ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule
Ole Miss's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Ole Miss vs Furman-45.558.5W 76 - 0OY
Sat 9/7 Ole Miss vs Middle Tennessee-42.560.5W 52 - 3UY
Sat 9/14 Ole Miss at Wake Forest-20.565.5W 40 - 6UY
Sat 9/21 Ole Miss vs Georgia Southern-35.068.5W 52 - 13UY
Sat 9/28 Ole Miss vs Kentucky-15.051.5L 17 - 20UN
Sat 10/5 Ole Miss at South Carolina-10.053.0W 27 - 3UY
Sat 10/12 Ole Miss at LSU-3.564.5L 26 - 29UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 Ole Miss vs Oklahoma-19.050.0W 26 - 14UN
Sat 11/2 Ole Miss at Arkansas-8.054.0W 63 - 31OY
Sat 11/9 Ole Miss vs Georgia+1.554.5W 28 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Ole Miss at Florida-13.057.5L 17 - 24UN
Fri 11/29 Ole Miss vs Mississippi State-26.563.5W 26 - 14UN
Thu 1/2 Ole Miss vs Duke-17.550.5W 52 - 20OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ole Miss's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UK#118 (.09)41% (89)20.647% (31)3.02 (71)14635% (123)1853.49 (104)#62 (.16)46% (111)22.149% (122)42% (75)3.44 (31)52.11.91.3
MISS#4 (.34)47% (19)38.644% (76)3.02 (72)16451% (3)3174 (58)#6 (.04)35% (3)14.435% (6)36% (13)2.98 (8)68.50.91.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UK#118 (.09)41% (89)47% (31)3.02 (71)14635% (123)1853.49 (104)#62 (.16)46% (111)49% (122)42% (75)3.44 (31)52.11.91.3
MISS#4 (.34)47% (19)44% (76)3.02 (72)16451% (3)3174 (58)#6 (.04)35% (3)35% (6)36% (13)2.98 (8)68.50.91.6



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UK Offense1220.61841.5%3.491.919331146185454%46%47%35%19%.09
MISS Defense1314.410.635.3%2.981.6 - - - - - 47%53%35%36%25%.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UK Defense1222.13146%3.441.3 - - - - - 58%42%49%42%17%.16
MISS Offense1338.639.647.4%40.9234811643174.650%50%44%51%15%.34

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Kentucky1229:3219.434%44%6.352.11.91.35.61.8227
Ole Miss1326:0422.741%59%6.868.50.91.68.94.1029.7
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UK Offense1254% (37)47% (31)36.7146.4411 (116).05 (107)3.02 (71)73% (71)13% (120)0.73 (133)
MISS Defense1347% (25)35% (6) - - - - -.04 (4)2.49 (7)74% (71)16% (1)0.88 (23)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UK Defense1258% (129)49% (122) - - - - .14 (75)3 (67)78% (101)12% (32)0.88 (24)
MISS Offense1350% (75)44% (76)35.8164.24.627 (30).15 (58)3.02 (72)71% (85)10% (68)1.09 (26)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UK Offense1246% (97)35% (123)13.926184.87.113.315 (98)17 (127).13 (117)1.9 (10)33% (92)28% (104).18 (114)7% (103)2.1 (46)
MISS Defense1353% (115)36% (13) - - - - - - 11 (52).12 (20)1.6 (85)37% (5)23% (1).1 (3)8% (3)2.1 (68)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UK Defense1242% (7)42% (75) - - - - - - 10 (66).19 (46)1.5 (27)29% (109)31% (83).3 (68)5% (95)2 (61)
MISS Offense1350% (59)51% (3)20.530.5317.210.415.427 (20)6 (10).53 (3)1.6 (46)29% (28)38% (7).63 (2)5% (54)2.3 (12)

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 2.14  #54
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 16.88  #96
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 8.88  #62
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 28%  #21
Kentucky's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Kentucky's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.5  #45
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5  #88
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9  #26

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 2.14   Ole Miss: 28.83

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 5.5   Ole Miss: 27.9




Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 28.83  #4
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 27.20  #8
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: 0.53  #4
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 33  #19
Ole Miss's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Ole Miss's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 27.9  #2
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7  #7
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 11.9  #3

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 20.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 18
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Kentucky's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Ole Miss 36
Kentucky 11


Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Ole Miss 28
Kentucky 10

Total Points: 39

Based on Entire Season
Ole Miss 33
Kentucky 16

Total Points: 49
Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 38.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 39.6
Defense: 14.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 10.6

Ole Miss's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06Kentucky23Ole Miss30Ole Miss -8.0Kentucky51.5Over
202409/28Ole Miss17Kentucky20Ole Miss -15Kentucky51.5Under
202210/01Ole Miss22Kentucky19Ole Miss -6.5Kentucky55.0Under
202010/03Kentucky41Ole Miss42Kentucky -7.0Ole Miss63.0Over
201711/04Kentucky34Ole Miss37Kentucky -3.5Ole Miss63.5Over
201111/05Kentucky30Ole Miss13
201010/02Ole Miss42Kentucky35
200609/16Kentucky31Ole Miss14
200510/22Ole Miss13Kentucky7
200109/29Kentucky31Ole Miss42
200009/29Ole Miss35Kentucky17
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Ole Miss823 Overs
Kentucky332 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 51 - 40 - 41 - 0
Road Teams5 - 64 - 10 - 14 - 0

(#54) UK at (#4) MISS
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUKMISS
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #54 #4
SP+SP+ #45 #2
Perf GradeGrade #83 #6
OffenseOff #95 #15
DefenseDef #75 #3
Spec TeamsST #32 #81
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #21 #19
Kentucky Notes
(11/23) 30 car, 21 yds vs Tex. QB Boley bad, Def fought
(10/30) UK on quit watch, bad body language past 2 L's
(10/27) Off broken, Haven't scored 21 pts in any SEC game
(10/16) Into UF wk, Stoops 5-8 in last 13 games
(10/13) Bad L (Vandy). Def good, QB v bad, Rgame Ok.
(9/28) Great W over Ole Miss. Rgame stopped, Pass good
(9/28) Run Def is great. Held Ole Miss 92 yds (3.2 ypc)
(9/15) OL/DL great vs UGA. Def good, Off bad, QB bad
(9/9) W/O OC Coen UKs Off has regressed badly twice
(9/8) 44 yds pass, 2 Int in bad L vs S Car. Rgame bad
(9/1) Def perfect vs S Miss. Eff off, QB Brock good start
(8/18) Starting RB Trayanum out for opener, poss more
Kentucky Injury Report
Ole Miss Notes
(11/29) Rgame good enough for Egg Bowl win. Dart meh
(11/23) Gagged season @ UF, 3 TO's, short yd disasters
(11/13) Killed UGA, Def great, Dart tough, Off good
(11/7) WR Harris likely play vs UGA but limited
(11/7) RB1 Parrish out for the Georgia game
(10/21) LSU only Off faced > 60, Ark,UGA,UF to go
(10/21) Even w/ LSU, 12 flags, 2 TOs, Dart meh cost em
(10/13) Season meltdown @ LSU. Dart avg, Def gagged
(10/10) OL injuries really hurting this Off. Dart pressure
(9/28) Shut down by UK. Run 92 yds (3.2 ypc). Shocking L
(7/30) No Tx/Bama/Tenn. Play SEC bottoms outside Vandy
(7/30) OL has 200+ starts, still some ? w/ portal adds
Ole Miss Injury Report
Kentucky on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
UK OffMISS Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #95 #3
SuccessSuc #89 #3
ExplosiveExp #123 #78
PPAPPA #118 #6
PowerPwr #96 #4
SP+SP+ #88 #3
Pts POPPO #104 #8
HavocHav #121 #1
Kentucky Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
UK OffMISS Def
Run GameRun #31 #3
Run SuccessRSuc #31 #6
Run ExplRExp #133 #23
PPAExp #107 #4
Run BlockR Blk #89 -
OL YdsOLY #71 #7
Stuff RateStuff #78 #19
TackleTak -  #1
Kentucky Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
UK OffMISS Def
Pass GamePass #113 #22
Pass SuccessPSuc #123 #13
Pass ExplPExl #10 #85
PPAExp #117 #20
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #116 #4
F7 HavocF7 #120 #1
DB HavocDB #103 #3
Ole Miss on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatMISS OffUK Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #15 #75
SuccessSuc #19 #111
ExplosiveExp #8 #9
PPAPPA #4 #62
PowerPwr #8 #62
SP+SP+ #7 #26
Pts POPPO #58 #31
HavocHav #54 #56
Ole Miss Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MISS OffUK Def
Run GameRun #55 #113
Run SuccessRSuc #76 #122
Run ExplRExp #26 #24
PPAExp #58 #75
Run BlockR Blk #89 -
OL YdsOLY #72 #67
Stuff RateStuff #92 #48
TackleTak -  #104
Ole Miss Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatMISS OffUK Def
Pass GamePass #1 #55
Pass SuccessPSuc #3 #75
Pass ExplPExl #46 #27
PPAExp #3 #46
Pass Block/RushP Blk #82 #23
F7 HavocF7 #68 #32
DB HavocDB #54 #95
Program Comparison
MISS 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'24 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

UK 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 68° - Wind: 9 mph
Rematch from Week 5
Ole Miss -15.0 (51.5)
Kentucky won at Ole Miss this year (20-17)

Previous Matchups
Kentucky beat Ole Miss last year (20-17)
Ole Miss beat Kentucky in 2022 (22-19)

  
UK's OC Bush Hamdan (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brock Vandagriff (Tr)12521857%15931087.3
Cutter Boley265349%338246.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jamarion Wilcox9259026.450
Demie Sumo12958654.522
Gavin Wimsatt (Tr)4918323.724
Brock Vandagriff (Tr)9013101.522
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Dane Key47715215.242
Barion Brown29361312.463
Jay Maclin13313424.183
Demie Sumo2015407.718

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Brad White (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamon Dumas-Johnson (Tr)677410
Jordan Lovett631001
Alex Afari Jr.6211211
Zion Childress556162
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J.J. Weaver317441
Jamon Dumas-Johnson (Tr)677410
Tre'Vonn Rybka345321
Octavious Oxendine205330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Terhyon Nichols100005
Maxwell Hairston191104
J.Q. Hardaway470003

MISS's OC Charlie Weis Jr. (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaxson Dart27639869%427929610.8
Austin Simmons193259%282208.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Henry Parrish Jr.131693105.342
Jaxson Dart12449534.035
Ulysses Bentley IV8441955.089
Matt Jones4321134.946
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Harris611063717.470
Jordan Watkins49906918.575
Cayden Lee57874215.358
Antwane Wells Jr. (Tr)28553619.866

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC Bryan Brown (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Paul Jr. (Tr)8712494
TJ Dottery776341
Trey Washington644027
Suntarine Perkins60141180
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Suntarine Perkins60141180
Princely Umanmielen (Tr)371411130
Jared Ivey4110883
Walter Nolen (Tr)4713642
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey Amos (Tr)5040013
Jadon Canady3830011
Trey Washington644027