Georgia Southern at Ole Miss - 2024 Matchup Preview

Georgia Southern Eagles at Ole Miss Rebels

Saturday, September 21st 2024 (7:45 PM EDT)
Ole Miss -35 (68.5) (0) Open: -36.0 | 66.0
Ole Miss 52 - Georgia Southern: 13

Eagles (8 - 5) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Clay Helton (12 - 14)
Avg Score : 28 - 32 (20 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MISS is playing their 4th straight game
GASO is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Ole Miss -34 (SP+ MISS -30)
Projected Score: GASO: 14 - MISS: 48 (63)
MISS Win prob: 99% | Cover: 47%
GASO Travel: 467 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Rebels (10 - 3) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Lane Kiffin (34 - 15)
Avg Score : 37 - 21 (39 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
GASO Players
MISS Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Georgia Southern's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Georgia Southern vs Boise State	+13.0	57.5	L 45 - 56	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Georgia Southern at Nevada	+1.5	56.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Georgia Southern vs South Carolina State	-27.5	52.5	W 42 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Georgia Southern at Ole Miss	+35.0	68.5	L 13 - 52	U	N
Sat 9/28	Georgia Southern at Georgia State	+3.5	57.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Georgia Southern vs Marshall	-1.0	58.5	W 24 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/19	Georgia Southern vs James Madison	+9.5	58.5	W 28 - 14	U	Y
Thu 10/24	Georgia Southern at Old Dominion	-1.0	52.0	L 19 - 47	O	N
Sat 11/2	Georgia Southern at South Alabama	+5.5	60.0	W 34 - 30	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Georgia Southern vs Troy	-7.0	54.0	L 20 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/23	Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina	+2.0	59.5	W 26 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Georgia Southern vs App State	-2.5	60.5	W 29 - 20	U	Y
Thu 12/19	Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston	-3.5	48.0	L 26 - 31	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Georgia Southern's Schedule

Ole Miss's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Ole Miss vs Furman	-45.5	58.5	W 76 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Ole Miss vs Middle Tennessee	-42.5	60.5	W 52 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Ole Miss at Wake Forest	-20.5	65.5	W 40 - 6	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Ole Miss vs Georgia Southern	-35.0	68.5	W 52 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Ole Miss vs Kentucky	-15.0	51.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/5	Ole Miss at South Carolina	-10.0	53.0	W 27 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Ole Miss at LSU	-3.5	64.5	L 26 - 29	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	Ole Miss vs Oklahoma	-19.0	50.0	W 26 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/2	Ole Miss at Arkansas	-8.0	54.0	W 63 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Ole Miss vs Georgia	+1.5	54.5	W 28 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Ole Miss at Florida	-13.0	57.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
Fri 11/29	Ole Miss vs Mississippi State	-26.5	63.5	W 26 - 14	U	N
Thu 1/2	Ole Miss vs Duke	-17.5	50.5	W 52 - 20	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
GASO	#55 (.21)	45% (32)	27.9	48% (21)	3.13 (64)	117	45% (40)	302	3.64 (88)	#118 (.27)	45% (107)	32.3	45% (94)	45% (115)	4.45 (123)	51.8	2.4	1.6
MISS	#30 (.28)	44% (44)	36.9	44% (54)	2.94 (100)	176	45% (31)	286	4.72 (13)	#68 (.18)	42% (62)	21.1	43% (74)	41% (54)	3.64 (55)	59.1	0.5	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
GASO		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MISS		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
GASO Offense	13	27.9	19.5	45.3%	3.64	2.4	23	419	117	302	4	35%	64%	48%	45%	17%	.21
MISS Defense	13	21.1	15.6	41.6%	3.64	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	43%	41%	18%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
GASO Defense	13	32.3	35.3	44.9%	4.45	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	45%	45%	22%	.27
MISS Offense	13	36.9	39	44.4%	4.72	0.5	23	462	176	286	4.3	54%	45%	44%	45%	15%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Georgia Southern	13	31:06	23.1	46%	59%	5.8	51.8	2.4	1.6	7	1.8	4	30.8
Ole Miss	13	27:43	23.5	37%	69%	7.2	59.1	0.5	1.4	5.9	2.6	1	29

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
GASO Offense	13	35% (130)	48% (21)	29	117.1	4	16 (89)	.23 (25)	3.13 (64)	78% (35)	10% (63)	1.05 (41)
MISS Defense	13	50% (62)	43% (74)	-	-	-	-	.14 (70)	3.21 (96)	86% (127)	11% (30)	0.98 (58)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
GASO Defense	13	49% (55)	45% (94)	-	-	-	-	.25 (122)	3.16 (85)	72% (59)	14% (7)	1.13 (116)
MISS Offense	13	54% (37)	44% (54)	41.1	176.5	4.3	29 (22)	.17 (60)	2.94 (100)	70% (95)	11% (80)	1.05 (44)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
GASO Offense	13	64% (4)	45% (40)	28.9	44.4	302.2	6.8	10.5	26 (31)	20 (133)	.26 (74)	1.4 (131)	30% (41)	34% (35)	.41 (42)	8% (114)	2.1 (62)
MISS Defense	13	49% (70)	41% (54)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.26 (59)	1.6 (79)	32% (65)	27% (26)	.23 (31)	7% (43)	2 (35)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
GASO Defense	13	50% (81)	45% (115)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.3 (89)	1.5 (32)	31% (96)	35% (120)	.49 (127)	9% (5)	2.1 (81)
MISS Offense	13	45% (97)	45% (31)	19.7	30.4	285.6	9.4	14.5	26 (31)	6 (14)	.45 (17)	1.7 (21)	32% (72)	33% (55)	.43 (39)	5% (22)	2.2 (28)

Georgia Southern's Power Ratings
Georgia Southern's Power Rating: -8.83 #96
Georgia Southern's Offense Rating: 20.12 #66
Georgia Southern's Defense Rating: 14.04 #102
2024 Talent Rating: 245.00 #98
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Georgia Southern's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Georgia Southern's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.7 #76
Georgia Southern's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #72
Georgia Southern's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #90

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 235.21
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Georgia Southern: -8.83 Ole Miss: 28.83

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Georgia Southern: -1.7 Ole Miss: 27.9

Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 28.83 #4
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 27.20 #8
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: 0.53 #4
2024 Talent Rating: 462.00 #20
Blue Chip Ratio: 33 #19
Ole Miss's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Ole Miss's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 27.9 #2
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #7
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 11.9 #3

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 511.63
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Georgia Southern Scoring
Offense: 27.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.5
Defense: 32.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.3

Georgia Southern's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Ole Miss 48
Georgia Southern 14

Projected Total Points: 63

Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 36.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 39
Defense: 21.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.6

Ole Miss's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/21	Ole Miss	52	Georgia Southern	13	Ole Miss -35	Ole Miss	68.5	Under
2016	11/05	Ole Miss	37	Georgia Southern	27	Ole Miss -20.5	Georgia Southern	63.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ole Miss	2	1	1 Overs
Georgia Southern	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 0	1 - 1

(#96) GASO at (#4) MISS

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	GASO	MISS
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#96	#4
SP+SP+	#76	#2
Perf GradeGrade	#95	#6
OffenseOff	#96	#15
DefenseDef	#90	#3
Spec TeamsST	#74	#81
TalentTal	#98	#20
Blue ChipsBC%	#82	#19

Georgia Southern Notes(11/25) Big W @ Coastal. Beat App & help=SBC title
(11/25) French torced CC, Rgame awful, Def 3 INTs in W
(11/18) Bad L vs Troy, Rgame awful, Pass D awful
(11/3) Big W (S. Al), Outgained (100+) but forced 2 TOs
(10/24) Killed by ODU, gave up 500+ yds, 250+ rushing
(10/20) Rgame 190 (4.8 ypc), Def great in JMU upset
(10/18) QB French (concussion) cleared for JMU game
(10/13) Rgame bad vs Marshall, 21 pt 4Q comeback W
(9/28) Rgame 261 (5.4), French good vs Ga St.
(9/1) Good fight vs Boise, QB French good. Def awful
(8/17) Big year for Helton, need progress
(7/30) QB battle, Williams (IU) vs French, WR look good
Georgia Southern Injury Report

Ole Miss Notes(11/29) Rgame good enough for Egg Bowl win. Dart meh
(11/23) Gagged season @ UF, 3 TO's, short yd disasters
(11/13) Killed UGA, Def great, Dart tough, Off good
(11/7) WR Harris likely play vs UGA but limited
(11/7) RB1 Parrish out for the Georgia game
(10/21) LSU only Off faced > 60, Ark,UGA,UF to go
(10/21) Even w/ LSU, 12 flags, 2 TOs, Dart meh cost em
(10/13) Season meltdown @ LSU. Dart avg, Def gagged
(10/10) OL injuries really hurting this Off. Dart pressure
(9/28) Shut down by UK. Run 92 yds (3.2 ypc). Shocking L
(7/30) No Tx/Bama/Tenn. Play SEC bottoms outside Vandy
(7/30) OL has 200+ starts, still some ? w/ portal adds
Ole Miss Injury Report

Georgia Southern on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	GASO Off	MISS Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#96	#3
SuccessSuc	#32	#62
ExplosiveExp	#95	#69
PPAPPA	#55	#68
PowerPwr	#66	#4
SP+SP+	#72	#3
Pts POPPO	#88	#55
HavocHav	#91	#33

Georgia Southern Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	GASO Off	MISS Def
Run GameRun	#80	#3
Run SuccessRSuc	#21	#74
Run ExplRExp	#41	#58
PPAExp	#25	#70
Run BlockR Blk	#114	-
OL YdsOLY	#64	#96
Stuff RateStuff	#106	#105
TackleTak	-	#1

Georgia Southern Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	GASO Off	MISS Def
Pass GamePass	#87	#22
Pass SuccessPSuc	#40	#54
Pass ExplPExl	#131	#79
PPAExp	#74	#59
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#23	#4
F7 HavocF7	#63	#30
DB HavocDB	#114	#43

Ole Miss on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MISS Off	GASO Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#15	#90
SuccessSuc	#44	#107
ExplosiveExp	#26	#83
PPAPPA	#30	#118
PowerPwr	#8	#102
SP+SP+	#7	#90
Pts POPPO	#13	#123
HavocHav	#60	#4

Ole Miss Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MISS Off	GASO Def
Run GameRun	#55	#84
Run SuccessRSuc	#54	#94
Run ExplRExp	#44	#116
PPAExp	#60	#122
Run BlockR Blk	#89	-
OL YdsOLY	#100	#85
Stuff RateStuff	#123	#61
TackleTak	-	#64

Ole Miss Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MISS Off	GASO Def
Pass GamePass	#1	#77
Pass SuccessPSuc	#31	#115
Pass ExplPExl	#21	#32
PPAExp	#17	#89
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#82	#89
F7 HavocF7	#80	#7
DB HavocDB	#22	#5

Program Comparison
MISS 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'24 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

GASO 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
Ole Miss -35.0 (68.5)
Ole Miss won vs Georgia Southern this year (52-13)

Previous Matchups
Ole Miss beat Georgia Southern in 2024 (52-13)

GASO's OC Ryan Aplin (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
JC French	269	410	66%	2831	17	11	6.9
Dexter Williams II (Tr)	19	30	63%	248	3	0	8.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen White	164	745	14	4.5	49
OJ Arnold	62	315	3	5.1	32
JC French	118	238	2	2.0	19
David Mbadinga	58	229	3	3.9	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Derwin Burgess Jr.	59	659	3	11.2	48
Josh Dallas	46	614	6	13.3	59
Dalen Cobb	52	599	4	11.5	55
LV Bunkley-Shelton (Tr)	30	322	0	10.7	34

View Georgia Southern's Full Roster

GASO's DC Brandon Bailey (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marques Watson-Trent	118	8	2	2	1
Davon Gilmore	62	5	3	4	1
Jusfin Meyers	61	3	1	1	1
Chance Gamble (Tr)	48	2	0	0	7

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davon Gilmore	62	5	3	4	1
Davion Rhodes	22	6	3	1	0
Elhadj Fall	20	5	3	1	1
Marc Stampley II	42	2	2	0	7

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chance Gamble (Tr)	48	2	0	0	7
Marc Stampley II	42	2	2	0	7
Isaac Walker	23	4	2	3	3

MISS's OC Charlie Weis Jr. (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaxson Dart	276	398	69%	4279	29	6	10.8
Austin Simmons	19	32	59%	282	2	0	8.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Henry Parrish Jr.	131	693	10	5.3	42
Jaxson Dart	124	495	3	4.0	35
Ulysses Bentley IV	84	419	5	5.0	89
Matt Jones	43	211	3	4.9	46

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tre Harris	61	1063	7	17.4	70
Jordan Watkins	49	906	9	18.5	75
Cayden Lee	57	874	2	15.3	58
Antwane Wells Jr. (Tr)	28	553	6	19.8	66

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC Bryan Brown (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chris Paul Jr. (Tr)	87	12	4	9	4
TJ Dottery	77	6	3	4	1
Trey Washington	64	4	0	2	7
Suntarine Perkins	60	14	11	8	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Suntarine Perkins	60	14	11	8	0
Princely Umanmielen (Tr)	37	14	11	13	0
Jared Ivey	41	10	8	8	3
Walter Nolen (Tr)	47	13	6	4	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Trey Amos (Tr)	50	4	0	13
Jadon Canady	38	3	0	11
Trey Washington	64	4	2	7