Ole Miss at Wake Forest - 2024 Matchup Preview
Ole Miss logo (#17)Ole Miss Rebels at Wake Forest Demon DeaconsWake Forest logo
Saturday, September 14th 2024 (6:30 PM EDT)
Ole Miss -20.5 (65.5) (-1600)  Open: -23.0 | 63.5
Ole Miss 40 - Wake Forest: 6

 
Rebels (10 - 3) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Lane Kiffin (34 - 15)
Avg Score : 39 - 14 (35 - 19 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
WAKE 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: Ole Miss -32   (SP+ MISS -33.5)

Projected Score: MISS: 46 - WAKE: 14 (61)
MISS Win prob: 94% | Cover: 54%
MISS Travel: 537 miles, 1 hrs behind
Demon Deacons (4 - 8) (4 - 6 - 1)
Coach Dave Clawson (63 - 61)
Avg Score : 26 - 33 (27 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Ole Miss's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Ole Miss vs Furman-45.558.5W 76 - 0OY
Sat 9/7 Ole Miss vs Middle Tennessee-42.560.5W 52 - 3UY
Sat 9/14 Ole Miss at Wake Forest-20.565.5W 40 - 6UY
Sat 9/21 Ole Miss vs Georgia Southern-35.068.5W 52 - 13UY
Sat 9/28 Ole Miss vs Kentucky-15.051.5L 17 - 20UN
Sat 10/5 Ole Miss at South Carolina-10.053.0W 27 - 3UY
Sat 10/12 Ole Miss at LSU-3.564.5L 26 - 29UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 Ole Miss vs Oklahoma-19.050.0W 26 - 14UN
Sat 11/2 Ole Miss at Arkansas-8.054.0W 63 - 31OY
Sat 11/9 Ole Miss vs Georgia+1.554.5W 28 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Ole Miss at Florida-13.057.5L 17 - 24UN
Fri 11/29 Ole Miss vs Mississippi State-26.563.5W 26 - 14UN
Thu 1/2 Ole Miss vs Duke-17.550.5W 52 - 20OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ole Miss's Schedule
Wake Forest's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 Wake Forest vs North Carolina A&T-20.5
Sat 9/7 Wake Forest vs Virginia+1.555.5L 30 - 31OY
Sat 9/14 Wake Forest vs Ole Miss+20.565.5L 6 - 40UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28 Wake Forest vs Louisiana-3.059.5L 38 - 41ON
Sat 10/5 Wake Forest at NC State+4.052.5W 34 - 30OY
Sat 10/12 Wake Forest vs Clemson+21.063.0L 14 - 49UN
Sat 10/19 Wake Forest at UConn-2.555.5W 23 - 20UY
Sat 10/26 Wake Forest at Stanford-3.053.0W 27 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/8 Wake Forest vs California+7.554.5L 36 - 46ON
Sat 11/16 Wake Forest at North Carolina+10.564.5L 24 - 31UY
Sat 11/23 Wake Forest at Miami+23.567.0L 14 - 42UN
Sat 11/30 Wake Forest vs Duke+3.553.5L 17 - 23UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Wake Forest's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MISS#4 (.34)47% (19)38.644% (76)3.02 (72)16451% (3)3174 (58)#6 (.04)35% (3)14.435% (6)36% (13)2.98 (8)68.50.91.6
WAKE#104 (.13)42% (81)25.743% (79)3 (79)13141% (75)2403.2 (121)#118 (.27)51% (134)32.548% (110)53% (133)4.12 (99)45.91.81.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MISS#4 (.34)47% (19)44% (76)3.02 (72)16451% (3)3174 (58)#6 (.04)35% (3)35% (6)36% (13)2.98 (8)68.50.91.6
WAKE#104 (.13)42% (81)43% (79)3 (79)13141% (75)2403.2 (121)#118 (.27)51% (134)48% (110)53% (133)4.12 (99)45.91.81.4



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MISS Offense1338.634.647.4%40.9234811643174.650%50%44%51%15%.34
WAKE Defense1232.534.750.7%4.121.4 - - - - - 44%56%48%53%12%.27
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MISS Defense1314.418.635.3%2.981.6 - - - - - 47%53%35%36%25%.04
WAKE Offense1225.726.641.9%3.21.8223721312403.648%52%43%41%16%.13

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ole Miss1326:0422.741%59%6.868.50.91.68.94.1029.7
Wake Forest1228:5121.839%64%5.145.91.81.44.91.7229
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MISS Offense1350% (75)44% (76)35.8164.24.627 (30).15 (58)3.02 (72)71% (85)10% (68)1.09 (26)
WAKE Defense1244% (6)48% (110) - - - - .18 (101)3.13 (88)80% (112)8% (110)0.96 (58)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MISS Defense1347% (25)35% (6) - - - - -.04 (4)2.49 (7)74% (71)16% (1)0.88 (23)
WAKE Offense1248% (86)43% (79)36.4131.43.618 (78).05 (106)3 (79)81% (18)10% (70)0.92 (88)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MISS Offense1350% (59)51% (3)20.530.5317.210.415.427 (20)6 (10).53 (3)1.6 (46)29% (28)38% (7).63 (2)5% (54)2.3 (12)
WAKE Defense1256% (129)53% (133) - - - - - - 11 (52).36 (116)1.3 (2)26% (130)40% (132).41 (106)4% (131)1.8 (18)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MISS Defense1353% (115)36% (13) - - - - - - 11 (52).12 (20)1.6 (85)37% (5)23% (1).1 (3)8% (3)2.1 (68)
WAKE Offense1252% (50)41% (75)20.733.6240.17.211.617 (79)13 (103).23 (83)1.5 (115)31% (63)28% (102).15 (125)7% (93)1.9 (103)

Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 24.76 #4
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 27.20 #8
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: 0.53 #4
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 33% #19
Ole Miss's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Ole Miss's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 27.9 #2
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #7
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 11.9 #3

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 24.76   Wake Forest: -5.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 27.9   Wake Forest: -5.7




Wake Forest's Power Ratings
Wake Forest's Power Rating: -5.53 #102
Wake Forest's Offense Rating: 16.79 #98
Wake Forest's Defense Rating: 16.26 #115
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
Wake Forest's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Wake Forest's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.7 #93
Wake Forest's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #77
Wake Forest's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.8 #103

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 38.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.6
Defense: 14.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.6

Ole Miss's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Ole Miss 46
Wake Forest 14


Total Points: 61

Wake Forest Scoring
Offense: 25.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.6
Defense: 32.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.7

Wake Forest's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 1
Record at home: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/14Wake Forest6Ole Miss40Ole MissOle Miss -20.5Ole Miss65.5Under
200809/06Wake Forest30Ole Miss28Wake Forest
200609/23Ole Miss3Wake Forest27Wake Forest
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Wake Forest200 Overs
Ole Miss111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 20 - 10 - 00 - 1
Road Teams2 - 11 - 01 - 00 - 0

(#4) Ole Miss Info
Power Rating: 24.76 #4
Offense Rating: 27.20 #8
Defense Rating: 0.53 #4
Overall SP+ Rating: 27.9 #2
Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #7
Defense SP+ Rating: 11.9 #3
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 33% #19
Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Great Offense Success Rate of 47%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Great Pass Success 51%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 35%
Great in Scoring Position 2.98 PPO
Great Run Def Success 35%
Great Pass Def Success 36%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Ole Miss has won 2 straight
Record on Road: 3 - 2 (3 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

Ole Miss Notes
(11/23) Gagged season @ UF, 3 TO's, short yd disasters
(11/13) Killed UGA, Def great, Dart tough, Off good
(11/7) WR Harris likely play vs UGA but limited
(11/7) RB1 Parrish out for the Georgia game
(10/21) LSU only Off faced > 60, Ark,UGA,UF to go
(10/21) Even w/ LSU, 12 flags, 2 TOs, Dart meh cost em
(10/13) Season meltdown @ LSU. Dart avg, Def gagged
(10/10) OL injuries really hurting this Off. Dart pressure
(9/28) Shut down by UK. Run 92 yds (3.2 ypc). Shocking L
(7/30) No Tx/Bama/Tenn. Play SEC bottoms outside Vandy

Ole Miss Highlights
Ole Miss offense is efficent (#17)
Ole Miss offense is explosive (#79)
Ole Miss Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Ole Miss has a really good defense (#75)
Ole Miss defense is really good in red zone (#50)
Ole Miss has a good run defense (#104)
Ole Miss has a good pass defense (#33)
Ole Miss Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#131)
Ole Miss Defensive Line is very good (#132)
Ole Miss Front 7 is disruptive (#125)
Ole Miss Secondary is very good (#20)
Ole Miss has a great TO Margin (#82)

Ole Miss Deficiencies
Ole Miss Commits a Lot of Penalties (#103)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatWAKEMISS
OverallOver#45#6
OffenseOff#56#15
DefenseDef#49#3
Special TeamsST#45#68
PassingPass#46#1
RushingRush#88#38
Run BlockRBLK#19#70
Pass BlockPBLK#37#72
Route RunningWR Rt#51#6
TacklingTkl#22#1
Run DefenseR Def#43#3
Pass Rush DefPRush#94#4
Coverage DefCov#44#16

Rematch from Week 3
Ole Miss 20.5 (65.5)
Ole Miss won at Wake Forest this year (40-6)

Previous Matchups
Ole Miss beat Wake Forest last year (40-6)

Weather Forecast
Playing in BB&T Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MISS | WAKE
Depth Chart: MISS | WAKE
Rosters: MISS | WAKE
(#102) Wake Forest Info
Power Rating: -5.53 #102
Offense Rating: 16.79 #98
Defense Rating: 16.26 #115
Overall SP+ Rating: -5.7 #93
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #77
Defense SP+ Rating: 31.8 #103
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.2 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 51%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.12 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 48%
Awful Pass Def Success 53%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Wake Forest has lost 1 straight
Wake Forest has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 6 (1 - 5 - 0 vs Spread)

Wake Forest Notes
(12/16) HC Clawson stepping down after 11 years
(11/25) Off abysmal vs Miami. Def all 40+ pts per in Nov
(11/18) Run D torched by NC. 2 QBs meh, Rgame bad
(11/13) Def (pass) torched by Cal, Rgame is awful, QB OK
(10/12) Have no answers other than pray for TOs
(10/6) Def #'s are near worst in CFB. Big W @ NC St
(9/28) Even game w/ Louisiana, Bach good, Rgame good
(9/8) Bach 403 yds but bad L (UVA), Pass D awful.
(8/19) New QB Bachmeier, WR ? w/ leader gone (Neb)
(8/19) 3 OL return off great unit LY, RB mid at best

Wake Forest Highlights
Wake Forest defense does not give up big plays (#85)
Wake Forest commits very few Penalties (#85)

Wake Forest Deficiencies
Wake Forest has a bad TO Margin (#107)
Wake Forest throws a Lot of Interceptions (#92)
Wake Forest offense is not Explosive (#9)
Wake Forest offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#116)
Wake Forest Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Wake Forest Defense Gives up a Lot of Points at Home
Wake Forest has a bad defense (#20)


  
Ole Miss's OC Charlie Weis Jr.
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaxson Dart27639869%427929610.8
Austin Simmons193259%282208.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Henry Parrish Jr.131693105.342
Jaxson Dart12449534.035
Ulysses Bentley IV8441955.089
Matt Jones4321134.946
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Harris611063717.470
Jordan Watkins49906918.575
Cayden Lee57874215.358
Antwane Wells Jr. (Tr)28553619.866

View Ole Miss's Full Roster
Ole Miss's DC Pete Golding
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Paul Jr. (Tr)8712494
TJ Dottery776341
Trey Washington644027
Suntarine Perkins60141180
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Suntarine Perkins60141180
Princely Umanmielen (Tr)371411130
Jared Ivey4110883
Walter Nolen (Tr)4713642
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey Amos (Tr)5040013
Jadon Canady3830011
Trey Washington644027

Wake Forest's OC Warren Ruggiero
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hank Bachmeier (Tr)22435763%259316107.3
Michael Kern244553%288136.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demond Claiborne2281048114.660
Tate Carney8233564.118
Hank Bachmeier (Tr)9614111.520
Ty Clark III135704.414
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Taylor Morin64756211.851
Horatio Fields39463411.942
Deuce Alexander36400211.138
Donavon Greene23380316.545

View Wake Forest's Full Roster
Wake Forest's DC Brad Lambert
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nick Andersen1221011
Branson Combs (Tr)836221
Dylan Hazen786130
Davaughn Patterson744003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jasheen Davis3111650
Kevin Pointer337481
Bryce Ganious265370
Branson Combs (Tr)836221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
C'Darius Kelley200004
Jamare Glasker373004
Davaughn Patterson744003