Arizona State at Texas State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Arizona State Sun Devils at Texas State Bobcats

Thursday, September 12th 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
Texas State -2.5 (58.5) (-145) Open: -1.5 | 58.5
Arizona State 31 - Texas State: 28

Sun Devils (11 - 3) (12 - 2 - 0)
Coach Kenny Dillingham (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 33 - 23 (30 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Temp: 91.4° (34% Hum)
TXST 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: Arizona State -6.5 (SP+ ASU -4)
Projected Score: ASU: 32 - TXST: 25 (57)
TXST Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
ASU Travel: 858 miles, 1 hrs behind

Bobcats (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 37 - 25 (39 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ASU Players
TXST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arizona State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Arizona State vs Wyoming	-6.5	47.0	W 48 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Arizona State vs Mississippi State	-6.5	57.5	W 30 - 23	U	Y
Thu 9/12	Arizona State at Texas State	+2.5	58.5	W 31 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Arizona State at Texas Tech	+4.5	58.5	L 22 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Arizona State vs Kansas	-2.5	50.0	W 35 - 31	O	Y
Fri 10/11	Arizona State vs Utah	+6.0	46.5	W 27 - 19	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Arizona State at Cincinnati	+5.5	51.0	L 14 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Arizona State at Oklahoma State	-5.0	57.0	W 42 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Arizona State vs UCF	-2.5	55.5	W 35 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Arizona State at Kansas State	+7.5	51.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Arizona State vs BYU	-3.5	49.0	W 28 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Arizona State at Arizona	-7.5	52.5	W 49 - 7	O	Y
Sat 12/7	Arizona State vs Iowa State	+1.5	51.5	W 45 - 19	O	Y
Wed 1/1	Arizona State vs Texas	+13.5	52.5	L 31 - 39	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arizona State's Schedule

Texas State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Texas State vs Lamar	-26
Sat 9/7	Texas State vs UTSA	-2.5	58.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
Thu 9/12	Texas State vs Arizona State	-2.5	58.5	L 28 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Texas State vs Sam Houston	-11.0	55.0	L 39 - 40	O	N
Thu 10/3	Texas State at Troy	-14.5	56.0	W 38 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Texas State vs Arkansas State	-13.5	66.0	W 41 - 9	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Texas State at Old Dominion	-10.5	60.0	L 14 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/29	Texas State vs Louisiana	-4.0	60.5	L 17 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/9	Texas State at UL Monroe	-9.5	50.0	W 38 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Texas State vs Southern Miss	-27.5	56.5	W 58 - 3	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Texas State vs Georgia State	-23.0	59.5	L 44 - 52	O	N
Fri 11/29	Texas State at South Alabama	-2.5	60.5	W 45 - 38	O	Y
Fri 1/3	Texas State vs North Texas	-15.5	67.5	W 30 - 28	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ASU	#13 (.31)	50% (8)	32.9	52% (6)	3.35 (19)	187	47% (21)	208	4.14 (48)	#36 (.12)	42% (79)	22.6	41% (49)	44% (106)	3.64 (51)	50.1	0.6	1.4
TXST	#25 (.25)	48% (17)	36.5	49% (14)	3.41 (11)	194	48% (10)	245	3.89 (72)	#50 (.14)	39% (31)	24.5	38% (21)	39% (54)	3.47 (33)	56.5	1.6	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ASU	#13 (.31)	50% (8)		52% (6)	3.35 (19)	187	47% (21)	208	4.14 (48)	#36 (.12)	42% (79)		41% (49)	44% (106)	3.64 (51)	50.1	0.6	1.4
TXST	#25 (.25)	48% (17)		49% (14)	3.41 (11)	194	48% (10)	245	3.89 (72)	#50 (.14)	39% (31)		38% (21)	39% (54)	3.47 (33)	56.5	1.6	1.2

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ASU Offense	14	32.9	30.3	49.8%	4.14	0.6	20	395	187	208	4.9	59%	41%	52%	47%	12%	.31
TXST Defense	13	24.5	22.1	38.6%	3.47	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	38%	39%	19%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ASU Defense	14	22.6	20.7	42.4%	3.64	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	45%	54%	41%	44%	16%	.12
TXST Offense	13	36.5	38.7	48%	3.89	1.6	24	438	194	245	5.2	52%	47%	49%	48%	13%	.25

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arizona State	14	29:54	20.4	47%	53%	6	50.1	0.6	1.4	4	1.3	3	28.6
Texas State	13	28:17	24.1	45%	64%	6.1	56.5	1.6	1.2	6.9	2.4	2	31

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ASU Offense	14	59% (14)	52% (6)	38.1	187	4.9	28 (25)	.27 (12)	3.35 (19)	73% (76)	7% (18)	0.96 (71)
TXST Defense	13	51% (72)	38% (21)	-	-	-	-	.12 (67)	2.97 (60)	68% (34)	14% (7)	1.13 (123)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ASU Defense	14	45% (14)	41% (49)	-	-	-	-	.04 (27)	2.97 (61)	63% (19)	8% (116)	1 (76)
TXST Offense	13	52% (59)	49% (14)	37.1	193.7	5.2	25 (41)	.16 (49)	3.41 (11)	75% (53)	8% (35)	0.88 (110)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ASU Offense	14	41% (120)	47% (21)	14.9	23.9	208.4	8.7	14	25 (31)	5 (6)	.39 (14)	1.6 (43)	27% (11)	38% (5)	.45 (21)	4% (16)	1.9 (115)
TXST Defense	13	48% (56)	39% (54)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (104)	.19 (45)	1.6 (62)	35% (23)	29% (44)	.3 (65)	5% (106)	2.2 (110)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ASU Defense	14	54% (119)	44% (106)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (18)	.21 (57)	1.4 (18)	32% (65)	30% (68)	.14 (5)	8% (21)	1.9 (27)
TXST Offense	13	47% (86)	48% (10)	20.9	30.2	244.7	8.1	11.7	30 (9)	13 (103)	.4 (13)	1.5 (91)	29% (31)	34% (41)	.32 (74)	5% (44)	1.7 (131)

Arizona State's Power Ratings
Arizona State's Power Rating: 16.01 #12
Arizona State's Offense Rating: 28.03 #7
Arizona State's Defense Rating: 7.01 #43
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #53
Arizona State's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
Arizona State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.4 #35
Arizona State's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.4 #32
Arizona State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #26

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Arizona State: 16.01 Texas State: 6.45

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arizona State: 9.4 Texas State: 5.4

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 6.45 #52
Texas State's Offense Rating: 23.07 #38
Texas State's Defense Rating: 5.36 #29
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Texas State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Texas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.4 #48
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #20
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #82

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Arizona State Scoring
Offense: 32.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.3
Defense: 22.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.7

Arizona State's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 12 - 2 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 5
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Arizona State 32
Texas State 25

Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
Texas State 30
Arizona State 22

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
Texas State 30
Arizona State 28

Total Points: 58

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.7
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.1

Texas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/13	Arizona State	34	Texas State	15	Arizona State -18.5	Arizona State	61.5	Under
2024	09/12	Texas State	28	Arizona State	31	Texas State -2.5	Arizona State	58.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas State	0	0	1 Overs
Arizona State	2	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0	1 - 1

(#12) ASU at (#52) TXST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ASU	TXST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#12	#52
SP+SP+	#35	#48
Perf GradeGrade	#76	#16
OffenseOff	#40	#10
DefenseDef	#98	#27
Spec TeamsST	#86	#43
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#53	#82

Arizona State Injury Report

Texas State Notes(11/29) How the fuck did this offense fail so much in 24?
(11/29) Off torched S Al, 530 yds, Def forced 3 TOs
(11/25) Awful L vs Ga St, Def torched 500+, Off 4 TOs
(11/18) 2 str W's, killed SoMiss, McCloud/Rgame great
(11/3) 2 awful L's, season slipping, McCloud replaced?
(10/20) Off/McCloud awful in bad L (ODU), 2 TOs, woof
(10/12) Off 600 yds (271 rush) killing Ark St. Def OK
(10/4) Great Pass Off, run enough. TO's an issue, fun team
(9/12) Spread Off fun. McCloud looks great w/ weapons
(9/8) Dog fight W over Lamar? 2 TOs, 156 penalty yds!
(9/8) Torched UTSA, McCould good, Run D great
(7/30) OL has 3/5 back. RB Mahdi great/depth. WR v good.
Texas State Injury Report

Arizona State on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	ASU Off	TXST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#40	#27
SuccessSuc	#8	#31
ExplosiveExp	#100	#107
PPAPPA	#13	#50
PowerPwr	#7	#29
SP+SP+	#32	#82
Pts POPPO	#48	#33
HavocHav	#11	#26

Arizona State Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	ASU Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	#7	#15
Run SuccessRSuc	#6	#21
Run ExplRExp	#71	#123
PPAExp	#12	#67
Run BlockR Blk	#96	-
OL YdsOLY	#19	#60
Stuff RateStuff	#30	#31
TackleTak	-	#66

Arizona State Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	ASU Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	#19	#95
Pass SuccessPSuc	#21	#54
Pass ExplPExl	#43	#62
PPAExp	#14	#45
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#20	#8
F7 HavocF7	#18	#7
DB HavocDB	#16	#106

Texas State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	ASU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#10	#98
SuccessSuc	#17	#79
ExplosiveExp	#115	#55
PPAPPA	#25	#36
PowerPwr	#38	#43
SP+SP+	#20	#26
Pts POPPO	#72	#51
HavocHav	#29	#75

Texas State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	ASU Def
Run GameRun	#44	#81
Run SuccessRSuc	#14	#49
Run ExplRExp	#110	#76
PPAExp	#49	#27
Run BlockR Blk	#27	-
OL YdsOLY	#11	#61
Stuff RateStuff	#23	#47
TackleTak	-	#78

Texas State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	ASU Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#69
Pass SuccessPSuc	#10	#106
Pass ExplPExl	#91	#18
PPAExp	#13	#57
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#8	#134
F7 HavocF7	#35	#116
DB HavocDB	#44	#21

Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

ASU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'24 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 91° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 3
Texas State -2.5 (58.5)
Arizona State won at Texas State this year (31-28)

Previous Matchups
Arizona State beat Texas State last year (31-28)

ASU's OC Marcus Arroyo (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Sam Leavitt (Tr)	216	350	62%	2885	24	6	8.2
Jeff Sims (Tr)	13	25	52%	168	0	0	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cameron Skattebo	293	1715	21	5.9	53
Sam Leavitt (Tr)	110	443	5	4.0	40
Kyson Brown	73	351	2	4.8	38
DeCarlos Brooks	37	148	1	4.0	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordyn Tyson	75	1101	10	14.7	59
Cameron Skattebo	45	605	3	13.4	66
Xavier Guillory	22	339	5	15.4	61
Chamon Metayer (Tr)	32	306	5	9.6	29

View Arizona State's Full Roster

ASU's DC Brian Ward (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myles Rowser (Tr)	98	4	1	2	4
Xavion Alford	85	0	0	1	5
Caleb McCullough	76	8	1	1	1
Shamari Simmons	72	9	0	4	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elijah O'Neal	28	5	4	5	5
Jacob Kongaika (Tr)	10	5	3	1	0
Prince Dorbah	12	4	3	3	1
Clayton Smith	33	6	3	12	4

Pass D	Tack	PRESS	PD
Keith Abney	52	1	9
Laterrance Welch (Tr)	19	1	7
Xavion Alford	85	1	5

TXST's OC Mack Leftwich (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jordan McCloud (Tr)	272	389	70%	3222	30	13	8.3
RJ Martinez (Tr)	18	24	75%	148	0	1	6.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ismail Mahdi	183	991	4	5.4	45
Lincoln Pare	94	547	8	5.8	73
Torrance Burgess Jr. (Tr)	60	367	2	6.1	57
Jordan McCloud (Tr)	74	278	7	3.8	42

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaden Williams (Tr)	57	807	7	14.2	70
Joey Hobert	70	680	8	9.7	40
Kole Wilson	43	630	4	14.7	53
Chris Dawn Jr.	37	418	6	11.3	60

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Dexter McCoil (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Polk (Tr)	68	6	2	5	2
Ryan Nolan	52	1	0	0	1
James Neal (Tr)	50	2	0	1	1
Max Harris (Tr)	44	3	1	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kalil Alexander	40	11	6	5	2
Steven Parker (Tr)	29	9	5	1	1
Jo'Laison Landry	33	8	5	4	0
Ben Bell	13	6	3	6	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chris Mills	33	3	1	0	7
Bobby Crosby	18	1	0	0	5
Joshua Eaton	24	2	1	1	5