Southern Miss at Texas State - 2024 Matchup Preview
Southern Miss logo Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Texas State BobcatsTexas State logo
Saturday, November 16th 2024 (7:00 PM EST)
Texas State -27.5 (56.5) (-4000)  Open: -25.5
Texas State 58 - Southern Miss: 3  (Sun Belt)

 
Golden Eagles (1 - 11) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Reed Stringer (Int) (13 - 24)
Avg Score : 15 - 38 (11 - 43 on Road)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#132)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Our Line: Texas State -34   (SP+ TXST -31)
Projected Score: USM: 11 - TXST: 45 (57)
TXST Win prob: 97% | Cover: 53%
USM Travel: 520 miles
Bobcats (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 37 - 25 (39 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
Southern Miss's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Southern Miss at Kentucky+25.550.5L 0 - 31UN
Sat 9/7 Southern Miss vs SE Louisiana-17.553.5W 35 - 10UY
Sat 9/14 Southern Miss vs South Florida+13.058.5L 24 - 49ON
Sat 9/21 Southern Miss at Jacksonville State+6.059.5L 7 - 44UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Southern Miss vs Louisiana+17.557.5L 13 - 23UY
Sat 10/12 Southern Miss at UL Monroe+4.541.0L 21 - 38ON
Sat 10/19 Southern Miss vs Arkansas State+7.057.0L 28 - 44ON
Sat 10/26 Southern Miss at James Madison+24.054.0L 15 - 32UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 Southern Miss vs Marshall+13.553.5L 3 - 37UN
Sat 11/16 Southern Miss at Texas State+27.556.5L 3 - 58ON
Sat 11/23 Southern Miss vs South Alabama+24.054.0L 14 - 35UY
Sat 11/30 Southern Miss at Troy+17.548.5L 20 - 52ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 4, Bad 4, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 3, Bad: 3, Poor: 2

Predictions for Southern Miss's Schedule
Texas State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Texas State vs Lamar-26
Sat 9/7 Texas State vs UTSA-2.558.5W 49 - 10OY
Thu 9/12 Texas State vs Arizona State-2.558.5L 28 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28 Texas State vs Sam Houston-11.055.0L 39 - 40ON
Thu 10/3 Texas State at Troy-14.556.0W 38 - 17UY
Sat 10/12 Texas State vs Arkansas State-13.566.0W 41 - 9UY
Sat 10/19 Texas State at Old Dominion-10.560.0L 14 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/29 Texas State vs Louisiana-4.060.5L 17 - 23UN
Sat 11/9 Texas State at UL Monroe-9.550.0W 38 - 17OY
Sat 11/16 Texas State vs Southern Miss-27.556.5W 58 - 3OY
Sat 11/23 Texas State vs Georgia State-23.059.5L 44 - 52ON
Fri 11/29 Texas State at South Alabama-2.560.5W 45 - 38OY
Fri 1/3 Texas State vs North Texas-15.567.5W 30 - 28UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USM#109 (.12)37% (121)15.340% (106)2.89 (107)16334% (126)1913.07 (121)#105 (.24)42% (69)37.841% (49)45% (109)4.15 (103)48.21.31.4
TXST#23 (.29)47% (20)36.546% (36)3.19 (53)18848% (15)2714.55 (19)#64 (.18)40% (45)24.539% (37)42% (77)3.7 (59)681.81.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USM0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TXST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USM Offense1215.31136.7%3.071.320354163191453%46%40%34%20%.12
TXST Defense1324.522.140.4%3.71.7 - - - - - 50%49%39%42%19%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USM Defense1237.842.542.2%4.151.4 - - - - - 53%46%41%45%16%.24
TXST Offense1336.538.746.7%4.551.8244591882714.651%48%46%48%15%.29

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Southern Miss1233:1520.338%44%6.348.21.31.44.52.1228
Texas State1329:0423.944%66%7.2681.81.77.72.6429.1
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USM Offense1253% (41)40% (106)40.5163.4416 (89).13 (80)2.89 (107)67% (109)12% (109)1.11 (19)
TXST Defense1350% (69)39% (37) - - - - .12 (56)2.87 (28)54% (3)14% (6)1.21 (127)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USM Defense1253% (106)41% (49) - - - - .22 (109)3.21 (94)67% (30)10% (76)1.24 (129)
TXST Offense1351% (56)46% (36)40.5187.84.633 (8).24 (21)3.19 (53)78% (31)11% (84)1.13 (15)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USM Offense1246% (92)34% (126)15.730.4190.76.312.215 (96)8 (30).14 (114)1.7 (26)36% (126)28% (87).34 (67)8% (117)2.1 (49)
TXST Defense1349% (68)42% (77) - - - - - - 11 (53).27 (66)1.7 (109)36% (10)36% (123).42 (113)5% (117)2 (47)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USM Defense1246% (27)45% (109) - - - - - - 9 (87).32 (101)1.7 (101)31% (93)33% (103).4 (106)6% (63)2.3 (123)
TXST Offense1348% (73)48% (15)22.133270.98.212.324 (41)9 (40).36 (36)1.5 (97)32% (63)36% (22).47 (24)4% (8)2 (80)

Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: -29.09 #133
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: 7.03 #134
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: 18.37 #125
2024 Talent Rating: 452.00 #111
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Southern Miss's 2024 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Southern Miss's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -25.6 #133
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.4 #130
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 39.4 #128

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 471.71
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: -29.09   Texas State: 6.45

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: -25.6   Texas State: 5.4




Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 6.45 #52
Texas State's Offense Rating: 23.07 #38
Texas State's Defense Rating: 5.36 #29
2024 Talent Rating: 456.00 #110
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Texas State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Texas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.4 #48
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #20
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #82

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 471.71
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 15.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 11
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 42.5

Southern Miss's 2024 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Projected Score
Texas State 45
Southern Miss 11


Projected Total Points: 57
Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.7
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.1

Texas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/16Texas State58Southern Miss3Texas StateTexas State -27.5Texas State56.5Over
202309/30Southern Miss36Texas State50Texas StateTexas State -6.5Texas State60.0Over
202210/22Texas State14Southern Miss20Southern MissSouthern Mississippi -2.5Southern Miss43.0Under
201509/19Texas State50Southern Miss56Southern MissTexas State -2Southern Miss67.0Over
201308/31Southern Miss15Texas State22Texas StateSouthern Mississippi -9.5Texas State0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas State333 Overs
Southern Miss221 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 41 - 41 - 20 - 2
Road Teams4 - 14 - 12 - 02 - 1

(#133) Southern Miss Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -29.09 #133
Offense Rating: 7.03 #134
Defense Rating: 18.37 #125
Overall SP+ Rating: -25.6 #133
Offense SP+ Rating: 14.4 #130
Defense SP+ Rating: 39.4 #128
Talent Rating: 452.00 #111
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 35%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.75 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Awful Pass Success 30%
Poor OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 44%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.17 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 45%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Southern Miss Notes
(11/25) Off awful vs S. Al, worst team in SBC
(11/18) Has to be worst Off in CFB. 3 pts in 2 straight L's
(10/22) Def stop rate 42% (#126) into week 9
(10/20) HC Will Hall fired, GM Reed Stringer Int?
(10/12) QB Crawford abysmal, Def torched in L (UL Mon)
(10/4) Def awful (B 10)/Off getting worse. Staff big trouble
(9/14) Allowed 369 yds rushing to S Fla. Rgame awful
(9/11) Worst Rgame in CFB to date. 36% suc, 39% stuffed
(9/1) Miserable L @ UK. Lucky game called. No Off
(7/30) QB Rodemaker (FSU) leads lots of SEC transfers
Southern Miss     Ratings Matchup     Texas State
Power #133
#52
Off #134
#38
Def #125
#29
Talent #111
#110
SP+ #133
#48
SP+ Off #130
#20
SP+ Def #128
#82

Rematch from Week 12
Texas State -27.5 (56.5)
Texas State won vs Southern Miss this year (58-3)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat Southern Miss last year (58-3)
Texas State beat Southern Miss in 2023 (50-36)
Southern Miss beat Texas State in 2022 (20-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 74° - Wind: 10 mph


Team Information
Injuries: USM | TXST
Depth Chart: USM | TXST
Rosters: USM | TXST
(#52) Texas State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 6.45 #52
Offense Rating: 23.07 #38
Defense Rating: 5.36 #29
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.4 #48
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #20
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #82
Talent Rating: 456.00 #110
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
Great Offense Success Rate of 48%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.89 PPO
Great Run Success 49%
Great Pass Success 48%
Good OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Good in Scoring Position 3.47 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Texas State Notes
(11/29) Off torched S Al, 530 yds, Def forced 3 TOs
(11/25) Awful L vs Ga St, Def torched 500+, Off 4 TOs
(11/18) 2 str W's, killed SoMiss, McCloud/Rgame great
(11/3) 2 awful L's, season slipping, McCloud replaced?
(10/20) Off/McCloud awful in bad L (ODU), 2 TOs, woof
(10/12) Off 600 yds (271 rush) killing Ark St. Def OK
(10/4) Great Pass Off, run enough. TO's an issue, fun team
(9/12) Spread Off fun. McCloud looks great w/ weapons
(9/8) Dog fight W over Lamar? 2 TOs, 156 penalty yds!
(9/8) Torched UTSA, McCould good, Run D great


  
Southern Miss's OC Chip Long
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tate Rodemaker (Tr)9816559%985776.0
Ethan Crawford5012042%849077.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kenyon Clay8438774.670
Ethan Crawford9720932.221
Jalen Washington2611814.514
JQ Gray3210603.319
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Larry Simmons (Tr)27421115.675
Tiaquelin Mims33393111.956
Kenyon Clay21225110.737
Kyirin Heath (Tr)15210214.034

View Southern Miss's Full Roster
Southern Miss's DC Clay Bignell
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tre Pinkney (Tr)745120
Chris Jones463101
Ja'Len Sims455113
Desmyn Baker (Tr)422212
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brodarius Lewis398400
Ryan Johnson (Tr)234390
Jameer Lewis245251
Desmyn Baker (Tr)422212
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Will James (Tr)352007
Ques McNeal292004
Ja'Len Sims455113

Texas State's OC Mack Leftwich
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jordan McCloud (Tr)27238970%322230138.3
RJ Martinez (Tr)182475%148016.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ismail Mahdi18399145.445
Lincoln Pare9454785.873
Greg Burrell6637035.642
Torrance Burgess Jr. (Tr)6036726.157
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaden Williams (Tr)57807714.270
Kole Wilson43630414.753
Chris Dawn Jr.37418611.360
Beau Sparks (Tr)25271210.824

View Texas State's Full Roster
Texas State's DC Dexter McCoil
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Polk (Tr)686252
Ryan Nolan521001
James Neal (Tr)502011
Max Harris (Tr)443120
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kalil Alexander4011652
Steven Parker (Tr)299511
Jo'Laison Landry338540
Ben Bell136362
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joshua Eaton242115
Bobby Crosby181005
Trez Moore (Tr)263024