UTSA at Texas State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 7th 2024 (4:00 PM EDT)
Texas State -2.5 (58.5) (-130) Open: -1.0 | 63.5
Texas State 49 - UTSA: 10

Roadrunners (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jeff Traylor (39 - 14)
Avg Score : 36 - 29 (22 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TXST 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Texas State -7.5 (SP+ TXST -3)
Projected Score: UTSA: 27 - TXST: 34 (61)
TXST Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
UTSA Travel: 47 miles

Bobcats (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (38 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UTSA Players
TXST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UTSA's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	UTSA vs Kennesaw State	-24.0	49.5	W 28 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/7	UTSA at Texas State	+2.5	58.5	L 10 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/14	UTSA at Texas	+36.5	56.5	L 7 - 56	O	N
Sat 9/21	UTSA vs Houston Christian	-35.5	54.5	W 45 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/28	UTSA at East Carolina	+2.0	53.5	L 20 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	UTSA at Rice	-3.5	51.0	L 27 - 29	O	N
Sat 10/19	UTSA vs Florida Atlantic	-4.0	52.5	W 38 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/26	UTSA at Tulsa	-9.5	52.5	L 45 - 46	O	N
Sat 11/2	UTSA vs Memphis	+7.0	62.0	W 44 - 36	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/15	UTSA vs North Texas	-1.0	73.0	W 48 - 27	O	Y
Fri 11/22	UTSA vs Temple	-16.5	56.0	W 51 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/30	UTSA at Army	+6.5	53.5	L 24 - 29	U	Y
Mon 12/23	UTSA vs Coastal Carolina	-12.5	56.5	W 44 - 15	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UTSA's Schedule

Texas State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Texas State vs Lamar	-26
Sat 9/7	Texas State vs UTSA	-2.5	58.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
Thu 9/12	Texas State vs Arizona State	-2.5	58.5	L 28 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Texas State vs Sam Houston	-11.0	55.0	L 39 - 40	O	N
Thu 10/3	Texas State at Troy	-14.5	56.0	W 38 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Texas State vs Arkansas State	-13.5	66.0	W 41 - 9	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Texas State at Old Dominion	-10.5	60.0	L 14 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/29	Texas State vs Louisiana	-4.0	60.5	L 17 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/9	Texas State at UL Monroe	-9.5	50.0	W 38 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Texas State vs Southern Miss	-27.5	56.5	W 58 - 3	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Texas State vs Georgia State	-23.0	59.5	L 44 - 52	O	N
Fri 11/29	Texas State at South Alabama	-2.5	60.5	W 45 - 38	O	Y
Fri 1/3	Texas State vs North Texas	-15.5	67.5	W 30 - 28	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UTSA	#45 (.23)	42% (66)	35.5	41% (89)	3 (88)	172	44% (49)	250	4.45 (24)	#35 (.14)	37% (21)	28.8	38% (26)	38% (25)	3.77 (65)	51.2	1.7	1.3
TXST	#23 (.29)	47% (20)	36.5	46% (36)	3.19 (53)	188	48% (15)	271	4.55 (19)	#64 (.18)	40% (45)	29	39% (37)	42% (77)	3.7 (59)	68	1.8	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UTSA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UTSA Offense	13	35.5	21.7	42.2%	4.45	1.7	23	422	172	250	4.3	51%	49%	41%	44%	15%	.23
TXST Defense	13	29	28.3	40.4%	3.7	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	39%	42%	19%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UTSA Defense	13	28.8	33.7	37.4%	3.77	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	38%	38%	20%	.14
TXST Offense	13	36.5	38	46.7%	4.55	1.8	24	459	188	271	4.6	51%	48%	46%	48%	15%	.29

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UTSA	13	30:08	22.6	47%	58%	5.6	51.2	1.7	1.3	7.6	3.5	1	29
Texas State	13	29:04	23.9	44%	66%	7.2	68	1.8	1.7	7.7	2.6	4	29.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UTSA Offense	13	51% (62)	41% (89)	39.7	171.8	4.3	27 (29)	.18 (48)	3 (88)	81% (14)	9% (45)	1.13 (13)
TXST Defense	13	50% (69)	39% (37)	-	-	-	-	.12 (56)	2.87 (28)	54% (3)	14% (6)	1.21 (127)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UTSA Defense	13	47% (27)	38% (26)	-	-	-	-	.12 (52)	2.86 (27)	83% (114)	12% (14)	1.14 (118)
TXST Offense	13	51% (56)	46% (36)	40.5	187.8	4.6	33 (8)	.24 (21)	3.19 (53)	78% (31)	11% (84)	1.13 (15)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UTSA Offense	13	49% (72)	44% (49)	22.3	34.3	249.8	7.3	11.2	25 (37)	14 (107)	.31 (58)	1.6 (60)	32% (71)	35% (27)	.46 (28)	6% (64)	2.2 (35)
TXST Defense	13	49% (68)	42% (77)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.27 (66)	1.7 (109)	36% (10)	36% (123)	.42 (113)	5% (117)	2 (47)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UTSA Defense	13	52% (101)	38% (25)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.23 (44)	1.6 (70)	35% (28)	24% (6)	.18 (13)	8% (11)	2.4 (130)
TXST Offense	13	48% (73)	48% (15)	22.1	33	270.9	8.2	12.3	24 (41)	9 (40)	.36 (36)	1.5 (97)	32% (63)	36% (22)	.47 (24)	4% (8)	2 (80)

UTSA's Power Ratings
UTSA's Power Rating: -4.61 #81
UTSA's Offense Rating: 17.26 #91
UTSA's Defense Rating: 6.84 #41
2024 Talent Rating: 291.00 #78
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #53
UTSA's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
UTSA's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.2 #64
UTSA's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.3 #34
UTSA's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #101

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 238.57
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
UTSA: -4.61 Texas State: 6.45

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UTSA: 2.2 Texas State: 5.4

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 6.45 #52
Texas State's Offense Rating: 23.07 #38
Texas State's Defense Rating: 5.36 #29
2024 Talent Rating: 227.00 #108
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Texas State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Texas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.4 #48
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #20
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #82

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 259.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

UTSA Scoring
Offense: 35.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.7
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.7

UTSA's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Texas State 34
UTSA 27

Projected Total Points: 61

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.3

Texas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/06	UTSA	36	Texas State	43	UTSA -4.5	Texas State	64.5	Over
2024	09/07	Texas State	49	UTSA	10	Texas State -2.5	Texas State	58.5	Over
2023	09/09	UTSA	20	Texas State	13	UT San Antonio -13.5	Texas State	66.5	Under
2020	09/12	Texas State	48	UTSA	51	Texas State -6.0	UTSA	56.5	Over
2018	09/22	UTSA	25	Texas State	21	UT San Antonio -7	Texas State	49.0	Under
2017	09/23	Texas State	14	UTSA	44	UT San Antonio -13.5	UTSA	45.0	Over
2012	11/24	UTSA	38	Texas State	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas State	2	4	4 Overs
UTSA	5	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 3	1 - 5	1 - 4	0 - 1
Road Teams	3 - 4	5 - 1	1 - 0	4 - 1

(#81) UTSA at (#52) TXST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UTSA	TXST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#81	#52
SP+SP+	#64	#48
Perf GradeGrade	#73	#16
OffenseOff	#88	#10
DefenseDef	#37	#27
Spec TeamsST	#71	#43
TalentTal	#78	#108
Blue ChipsBC%	#53	#82

UTSA Notes(11/18) 680 yds vs N Tex, Def meh but TOs, McCown great
(11/3) Huge W (Mem), McCown good, forced 2 TOs to W
(10/28) Blew 35-7 halftime lead vs Tulsa. Season killer?
(10/20) Even w/ FAU. McCown good, Def played well
(10/12) Bad L (Rice). Pass D torched, Rgame bad
(9/28) Rgame 170 (4.5)better but Pass D awful vs ECU
(9/15) Off has been really bad. Rgame awful, QB ?
(9/8) Killed by Tex St? Pulled McCown? Rgame just awful
(8/13) Lost DPY DE to Texas, another DE kicked out
(8/13) Starting MLB French suspended indefinitely
(8/13) Lost 3/4 top WR's, new QB, Def suspensions?
(8/13) QB McCown (won bowl LY) vs Marberger (Davis?)
UTSA Injury Report

Texas State Notes(11/29) How the fuck did this offense fail so much in 24?
(11/29) Off torched S Al, 530 yds, Def forced 3 TOs
(11/25) Awful L vs Ga St, Def torched 500+, Off 4 TOs
(11/18) 2 str W's, killed SoMiss, McCloud/Rgame great
(11/3) 2 awful L's, season slipping, McCloud replaced?
(10/20) Off/McCloud awful in bad L (ODU), 2 TOs, woof
(10/12) Off 600 yds (271 rush) killing Ark St. Def OK
(10/4) Great Pass Off, run enough. TO's an issue, fun team
(9/12) Spread Off fun. McCloud looks great w/ weapons
(9/8) Dog fight W over Lamar? 2 TOs, 156 penalty yds!
(9/8) Torched UTSA, McCould good, Run D great
(7/30) OL has 3/5 back. RB Mahdi great/depth. WR v good.
Texas State Injury Report

UTSA on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	UTSA Off	TXST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#88	#27
SuccessSuc	#66	#45
ExplosiveExp	#21	#126
PPAPPA	#45	#64
PowerPwr	#91	#29
SP+SP+	#34	#82
Pts POPPO	#24	#59
HavocHav	#46	#17

UTSA Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	UTSA Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	#78	#15
Run SuccessRSuc	#89	#37
Run ExplRExp	#13	#127
PPAExp	#48	#56
Run BlockR Blk	#78	-
OL YdsOLY	#88	#28
Stuff RateStuff	#68	#21
TackleTak	-	#66

UTSA Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	UTSA Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	#31	#95
Pass SuccessPSuc	#49	#77
Pass ExplPExl	#60	#109
PPAExp	#58	#66
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#111	#8
F7 HavocF7	#45	#6
DB HavocDB	#64	#117

Texas State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	UTSA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#10	#37
SuccessSuc	#20	#21
ExplosiveExp	#50	#112
PPAPPA	#23	#35
PowerPwr	#38	#41
SP+SP+	#20	#101
Pts POPPO	#19	#65
HavocHav	#48	#10

Texas State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	UTSA Def
Run GameRun	#44	#18
Run SuccessRSuc	#36	#26
Run ExplRExp	#15	#118
PPAExp	#21	#52
Run BlockR Blk	#27	-
OL YdsOLY	#53	#27
Stuff RateStuff	#59	#45
TackleTak	-	#119

Texas State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	UTSA Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#93
Pass SuccessPSuc	#15	#25
Pass ExplPExl	#97	#70
PPAExp	#36	#44
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#8	#19
F7 HavocF7	#84	#14
DB HavocDB	#8	#11

Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

UTSA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 2
Texas State -2.5 (58.5)
Texas State won vs UTSA this year (49-10)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat UTSA last year (43-36)
Texas State beat UTSA in 2024 (49-10)
UTSA beat Texas State in 2023 (20-13)

UTSA's OC Justin Burke (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Owen McCown	294	467	63%	3424	25	10	7.3
Eddie Lee Marburger	22	40	55%	234	2	3	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Robert Henry	130	706	7	5.4	88
Brandon High	93	495	8	5.3	66
Owen McCown	86	340	3	4.0	75
Kevorian Barnes	78	221	2	2.8	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Willie McCoy	28	536	4	19.1	66
Chris Carpenter	39	479	1	12.3	69
Houston Thomas	34	470	3	13.8	44
Devin Mccuin	45	424	5	9.4	54

View UTSA's Full Roster

UTSA's DC Jess Loepp (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Martavius French	80	17	1	4	3
Elliott Davison	58	0	0	0	4
Brevin Randle (Tr)	48	3	1	4	4
Jamal Ligon	46	7	3	4	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jimmori Robinson	44	18	11	8	1
Ronald Triplette	23	5	4	2	0
Brandon Brown	29	9	4	1	0
Jamal Ligon	46	7	3	4	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zah Frazier	24	1	0	1	9
Tyan Milton	18	2	1	1	5
Elliott Davison	58	0	0	0	4

TXST's OC Mack Leftwich (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jordan McCloud (Tr)	272	389	70%	3222	30	13	8.3
RJ Martinez (Tr)	18	24	75%	148	0	1	6.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ismail Mahdi	183	991	4	5.4	45
Lincoln Pare	94	547	8	5.8	73
Torrance Burgess Jr. (Tr)	60	367	2	6.1	57
Jordan McCloud (Tr)	74	278	7	3.8	42

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaden Williams (Tr)	57	807	7	14.2	70
Joey Hobert	70	680	8	9.7	40
Kole Wilson	43	630	4	14.7	53
Chris Dawn Jr.	37	418	6	11.3	60

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Dexter McCoil (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Polk (Tr)	68	6	2	5	2
Ryan Nolan	52	1	0	0	1
James Neal (Tr)	50	2	0	1	1
Max Harris (Tr)	44	3	1	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kalil Alexander	40	11	6	5	2
Steven Parker (Tr)	29	9	5	1	1
Jo'Laison Landry	33	8	5	4	0
Ben Bell	13	6	3	6	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chris Mills	33	3	1	0	7
Bobby Crosby	18	1	0	0	5
Joshua Eaton	24	2	1	1	5