Arizona State at Cincinnati - 2024 Matchup Preview

Arizona State Sun Devils at Cincinnati Bearcats

Saturday, October 19th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Cincinnati -5.5 (51.0) (-205) Open: -3.0
Cincinnati 24 - Arizona State: 14 (Big 12)

Sun Devils (11 - 3) (12 - 2 - 0)
Coach Kenny Dillingham (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (25 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Arizona State -9.5 (SP+ ASU -9.5)
Projected Score: ASU: 31 - CIN: 21 (52)
CIN Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
ASU Travel: 1571 miles, 2 hrs behind

Bearcats (5 - 7) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Scott Satterfield (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 30 - 26 (34 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ASU Players
CIN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arizona State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Arizona State vs Wyoming	-6.5	47.0	W 48 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Arizona State vs Mississippi State	-6.5	57.5	W 30 - 23	U	Y
Thu 9/12	Arizona State at Texas State	+2.5	58.5	W 31 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Arizona State at Texas Tech	+4.5	58.5	L 22 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Arizona State vs Kansas	-2.5	50.0	W 35 - 31	O	Y
Fri 10/11	Arizona State vs Utah	+6.0	46.5	W 27 - 19	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Arizona State at Cincinnati	+5.5	51.0	L 14 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Arizona State at Oklahoma State	-5.0	57.0	W 42 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Arizona State vs UCF	-2.5	55.5	W 35 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Arizona State at Kansas State	+7.5	51.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Arizona State vs BYU	-3.5	49.0	W 28 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Arizona State at Arizona	-7.5	52.5	W 49 - 7	O	Y
Sat 12/7	Arizona State vs Iowa State	+1.5	51.5	W 45 - 19	O	Y
Wed 1/1	Arizona State vs Texas	+13.5	52.5	L 31 - 39	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arizona State's Schedule

Cincinnati's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Cincinnati vs Towson	-33.5	56.5	W 38 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/7	Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh	+2.5	62.5	L 27 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Cincinnati at Miami (OH)	-3.5	47.5	W 27 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Cincinnati vs Houston	-4.0	47.5	W 34 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Cincinnati at Texas Tech	+3.0	60.0	L 41 - 44	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Cincinnati at UCF	+2.0	58.0	W 19 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Cincinnati vs Arizona State	-5.5	51.0	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Cincinnati at Colorado	+6.0	57.0	L 23 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Cincinnati vs West Virginia	-5.5	54.5	L 24 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/16	Cincinnati at Iowa State	+7.0	52.5	L 17 - 34	U	N
Sat 11/23	Cincinnati at Kansas State	+7.5	54.5	L 15 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/30	Cincinnati vs TCU	+2.5	58.5	L 13 - 20	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ASU	#110 (.12)	38% (112)	25.8	44% (57)	3.14 (62)	111	34% (123)	210	3.28 (108)	#112 (.25)	47% (123)	24.5	47% (105)	47% (125)	3.99 (86)	51.8	1.7	1
CIN	#63 (.2)	43% (51)	30.3	46% (40)	3.36 (18)	217	41% (73)	209	3.91 (68)	#129 (.32)	41% (56)	25.6	42% (56)	41% (66)	4.03 (89)	52.6	1.4	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ASU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
CIN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ASU Offense	12	25.8	24.6	37.7%	3.28	1.7	19	322	111	210	3.6	43%	56%	44%	34%	18%	.12
CIN Defense	12	25.6	19.6	41.2%	4.03	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	42%	41%	19%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ASU Defense	12	24.5	25.2	46.5%	3.99	1	-	-	-	-	-	42%	58%	47%	47%	16%	.25
CIN Offense	12	30.3	34.4	43.4%	3.91	1.4	22	426	217	209	5	56%	43%	46%	41%	15%	.2

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arizona State	12	30:16	18.8	31%	47%	5.8	51.8	1.7	1	5.4	2.2	0	25.1
Cincinnati	12	31:58	22.3	42%	45%	5.7	52.6	1.4	1.1	5.7	1.5	0	25.8

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ASU Offense	12	43% (113)	44% (57)	31.2	111.2	3.6	17 (81)	.2 (42)	3.14 (62)	67% (107)	10% (73)	0.99 (71)
CIN Defense	12	50% (68)	42% (56)	-	-	-	-	.26 (125)	2.99 (47)	75% (82)	12% (25)	1.38 (133)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ASU Defense	12	42% (5)	47% (105)	-	-	-	-	.2 (104)	3.53 (130)	72% (63)	10% (60)	0.99 (65)
CIN Offense	12	56% (26)	46% (40)	43.1	217.1	5	14 (106)	.24 (24)	3.36 (18)	63% (124)	10% (60)	1.08 (26)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ASU Offense	12	56% (23)	34% (123)	20.3	36.7	210.3	5.7	10.4	8 (128)	14 (107)	.1 (124)	1.5 (95)	34% (111)	25% (113)	.23 (102)	8% (120)	2.1 (41)
CIN Defense	12	49% (66)	41% (66)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.41 (121)	1.8 (120)	35% (26)	34% (118)	.42 (115)	7% (34)	2 (42)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ASU Defense	12	58% (129)	47% (125)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (126)	.3 (91)	1.4 (6)	30% (110)	33% (105)	.41 (109)	6% (67)	1.9 (21)
CIN Offense	12	43% (108)	41% (73)	18.2	30	209	7	11.5	21 (65)	11 (68)	.2 (93)	1.5 (94)	30% (35)	34% (41)	.46 (30)	5% (45)	2.1 (61)

Arizona State's Power Ratings
Arizona State's Power Rating: 16.01 #12
Arizona State's Offense Rating: 28.03 #7
Arizona State's Defense Rating: 7.01 #43
2024 Talent Rating: 374.00 #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #53
Arizona State's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
Arizona State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.4 #35
Arizona State's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.4 #32
Arizona State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #26

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 366.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Arizona State: 16.01 Cincinnati: 3.415

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arizona State: 9.4 Cincinnati: -0.1

Cincinnati's Power Ratings
Cincinnati's Power Rating: 3.415 #56
Cincinnati's Offense Rating: 22.64 #44
Cincinnati's Defense Rating: 11.67 #85
2024 Talent Rating: 364.00 #55
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
Cincinnati's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Cincinnati's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.1 #72
Cincinnati's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Cincinnati's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.0 #57

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 366.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Arizona State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.6
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.2

Arizona State's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 12 - 2 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 5
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Arizona State 31
Cincinnati 21

Projected Total Points: 52

Cincinnati Scoring
Offense: 30.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.4
Defense: 25.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.6

Cincinnati's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/19	Cincinnati	24	Arizona State	14	Cincinnati -5.5	Cincinnati	51.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Cincinnati	1	1	0 Overs
Arizona State	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#12) ASU at (#56) CIN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ASU	CIN
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#12	#56
SP+SP+	#35	#72
Perf GradeGrade	#76	#70
OffenseOff	#40	#56
DefenseDef	#98	#69
Spec TeamsST	#86	#90
TalentTal	#47	#55
Blue ChipsBC%	#53	#53

Arizona State Injury Report

Cincinnati Notes(11/25) 4 str L's, down 27-3 at H, Def killed by K St
(11/18) 3 str L's, Sorsby awful pass, good run, Rgame good
(11/13) 2 awful L's, outplayed WVU, 3 TO's cost, fading
(10/27) Big L vs Buffs, Off bad, 3-10 on 3rd, 9 flags
(10/19) Sorsby, Rgame enough vs ASU. Def held 4 big W
(10/12) Sorsby meh, Rgame awful, Def Ok in W (UCF)
(9/26) QB Sorsby a revelation. Top 3 QB in B12
(9/15) Pass heavy team, awful Red Zone, Def Rzone good
(9/8) Gagged vs Pitt. Had 36+ mins Off but Def torched
(9/1) Def gave up 438 yds to Towson? Rgame good
(8/3) New DC Fuqua will run 3-3-5, DT loss huge
(7/30) All B12 DT Corleone out indefintely (7/3)
Cincinnati Injury Report

Arizona State on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	ASU Off	CIN Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#40	#69
SuccessSuc	#112	#56
ExplosiveExp	#90	#132
PPAPPA	#110	#129
PowerPwr	#7	#85
SP+SP+	#32	#57
Pts POPPO	#108	#89
HavocHav	#101	#20

Arizona State Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	ASU Off	CIN Def
Run GameRun	#7	#63
Run SuccessRSuc	#57	#56
Run ExplRExp	#71	#133
PPAExp	#42	#125
Run BlockR Blk	#96	-
OL YdsOLY	#62	#47
Stuff RateStuff	#18	#5
TackleTak	-	#69

Arizona State Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	ASU Off	CIN Def
Pass GamePass	#19	#46
Pass SuccessPSuc	#123	#66
Pass ExplPExl	#95	#120
PPAExp	#124	#121
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#20	#111
F7 HavocF7	#73	#25
DB HavocDB	#120	#34

Cincinnati on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	CIN Off	ASU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#56	#98
SuccessSuc	#51	#123
ExplosiveExp	#85	#30
PPAPPA	#63	#112
PowerPwr	#44	#43
SP+SP+	#79	#26
Pts POPPO	#68	#86
HavocHav	#58	#62

Cincinnati Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	CIN Off	ASU Def
Run GameRun	#34	#81
Run SuccessRSuc	#40	#105
Run ExplRExp	#26	#65
PPAExp	#24	#104
Run BlockR Blk	#52	-
OL YdsOLY	#18	#130
Stuff RateStuff	#41	#129
TackleTak	-	#78

Cincinnati Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	CIN Off	ASU Def
Pass GamePass	#65	#69
Pass SuccessPSuc	#73	#125
Pass ExplPExl	#94	#6
PPAExp	#93	#91
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#34	#134
F7 HavocF7	#60	#60
DB HavocDB	#45	#67

Program Comparison
CIN 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Down to Top G5

ASU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'24 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Nippert Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
Cincinnati -5.5 (51.0)
Cincinnati won vs Arizona State this year (24-14)

Previous Matchups
Cincinnati beat Arizona State in 2024 (24-14)

ASU's OC Marcus Arroyo (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Sam Leavitt (Tr)	216	350	62%	2885	24	6	8.2
Jeff Sims (Tr)	13	25	52%	168	0	0	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cameron Skattebo	293	1715	21	5.9	53
Sam Leavitt (Tr)	110	443	5	4.0	40
Kyson Brown	73	351	2	4.8	38
DeCarlos Brooks	37	148	1	4.0	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordyn Tyson	75	1101	10	14.7	59
Cameron Skattebo	45	605	3	13.4	66
Xavier Guillory	22	339	5	15.4	61
Chamon Metayer (Tr)	32	306	5	9.6	29

View Arizona State's Full Roster

ASU's DC Brian Ward (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myles Rowser (Tr)	98	4	1	2	4
Xavion Alford	85	0	0	1	5
Caleb McCullough	76	8	1	1	1
Shamari Simmons	72	9	0	4	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elijah O'Neal	28	5	4	5	5
Jacob Kongaika (Tr)	10	5	3	1	0
Prince Dorbah	12	4	3	3	1
Clayton Smith	33	6	3	12	4

Pass D	Tack	PRESS	PD
Keith Abney	52	1	9
Laterrance Welch (Tr)	19	1	7
Xavion Alford	85	1	5

CIN's OC Brad Glenn (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brendan Sorsby (Tr)	249	389	64%	2813	18	7	7.2
Brady Lichtenberg	3	5	60%	25	0	0	5.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Kiner	204	1153	4	5.7	46
Brendan Sorsby (Tr)	106	445	9	4.2	41
Evan Pryor (Tr)	56	418	6	7.5	65
Chance Williams (Tr)	15	67	0	4.5	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Xzavier Henderson	58	735	4	12.7	42
Joe Royer (Tr)	51	532	3	10.4	38
Tony Johnson (Tr)	49	452	6	9.2	23
Jamoi Mayes	29	349	1	12.0	52

View Cincinnati's Full Roster

CIN's DC Nate Fuqua (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jared Bartlett (Tr)	70	12	8	2	3
Jake Golday (Tr)	57	7	1	0	2
Antwan Peek Jr.	54	1	0	0	1
Jonathan Thompson	49	5	2	1	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jared Bartlett (Tr)	70	12	8	2	3
Eric Phillips	19	5	3	6	0
Dontay Corleone	26	5	3	4	0
Jonathan Thompson	49	5	2	1	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jordan Young	35	1	5
Derrick Canteen (Tr)	44	3	5
Josh Minkins (Tr)	45	2	4