Texas State at Troy - 2024 Matchup Preview

Thursday, October 3rd 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Texas State -14.5 (56.0) (-625) Open: -13.5
Texas State 38 - Troy: 17 (Sun Belt)

Bobcats (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 37 - 25 (34 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TXST 2nd straight Road Game
TROY 3rd straight Home Game
TROY is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Texas State -12 (SP+ TXST -12)
Projected Score: TXST: 32 - TROY: 20 (52)
TXST Win prob: 85% | Cover: 47%
TXST Travel: 722 miles

Trojans (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Gerad Parker (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 28 (29 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TXST Players
TROY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Texas State vs Lamar	-26
Sat 9/7	Texas State vs UTSA	-2.5	58.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
Thu 9/12	Texas State vs Arizona State	-2.5	58.5	L 28 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Texas State vs Sam Houston	-11.0	55.0	L 39 - 40	O	N
Thu 10/3	Texas State at Troy	-14.5	56.0	W 38 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Texas State vs Arkansas State	-13.5	66.0	W 41 - 9	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Texas State at Old Dominion	-10.5	60.0	L 14 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/29	Texas State vs Louisiana	-4.0	60.5	L 17 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/9	Texas State at UL Monroe	-9.5	50.0	W 38 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Texas State vs Southern Miss	-27.5	56.5	W 58 - 3	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Texas State vs Georgia State	-23.0	59.5	L 44 - 52	O	N
Fri 11/29	Texas State at South Alabama	-2.5	60.5	W 45 - 38	O	Y
Fri 1/3	Texas State vs North Texas	-15.5	67.5	W 30 - 28	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule

Troy's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Troy vs Nevada	-7.5	44.5	L 26 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/7	Troy at Memphis	+18.5	57.5	L 17 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/14	Troy at Iowa	+23.5	39.5	L 21 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Troy vs Florida A&M	-21.5	48.5	W 34 - 12	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Troy vs UL Monroe	-6.0	46.0	L 9 - 13	U	N
Thu 10/3	Troy vs Texas State	+14.5	56.0	L 17 - 38	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/15	Troy at South Alabama	+10.0	53.0	L 9 - 25	U	N
Sat 10/26	Troy at Arkansas State	+8.5	50.0	L 31 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Troy vs Coastal Carolina	+4.0	52.0	W 38 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Troy at Georgia Southern	+7.0	54.0	W 28 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Troy at Louisiana	+7.5	51.5	L 30 - 51	O	N
Sat 11/30	Troy vs Southern Miss	-17.5	48.5	W 52 - 20	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST	#25 (.25)	48% (17)	36.5	49% (14)	3.41 (11)	194	48% (10)	245	3.89 (72)	#50 (.14)	39% (31)	24.5	38% (21)	39% (54)	3.47 (33)	56.5	1.6	1.2
TROY	#50 (.22)	44% (49)	26	42% (94)	2.88 (95)	157	48% (15)	213	4.43 (22)	#77 (.18)	43% (87)	28.4	45% (87)	42% (76)	3.77 (65)	58.8	1.3	0.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST	#25 (.25)	48% (17)		49% (14)	3.41 (11)	194	48% (10)	245	3.89 (72)	#50 (.14)	39% (31)		38% (21)	39% (54)	3.47 (33)	56.5	1.6	1.2
TROY	#50 (.22)	44% (49)		42% (94)	2.88 (95)	157	48% (15)	213	4.43 (22)	#77 (.18)	43% (87)		45% (87)	42% (76)	3.77 (65)	58.8	1.3	0.7

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Offense	13	36.5	33.8	48%	3.89	1.6	24	438	194	245	5.2	52%	47%	49%	48%	13%	.25
TROY Defense	12	28.4	22.5	43.3%	3.77	0.7	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	45%	42%	17%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Defense	13	24.5	24	38.6%	3.47	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	38%	39%	19%	.14
TROY Offense	12	26	29.3	44.3%	4.43	1.3	20	370	157	213	4.4	54%	46%	42%	48%	16%	.22

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas State	13	28:17	24.1	45%	64%	6.1	56.5	1.6	1.2	6.9	2.4	2	31
Troy	12	30:17	20.3	50%	47%	6.7	58.8	1.3	0.7	6.3	1.5	2	27

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Offense	13	52% (59)	49% (14)	37.1	193.7	5.2	25 (41)	.16 (49)	3.41 (11)	75% (53)	8% (35)	0.88 (110)
TROY Defense	12	53% (89)	45% (87)	-	-	-	-	.12 (68)	2.99 (64)	71% (52)	11% (40)	0.91 (36)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Defense	13	51% (72)	38% (21)	-	-	-	-	.12 (67)	2.97 (60)	68% (34)	14% (7)	1.13 (123)
TROY Offense	12	54% (43)	42% (94)	36.1	157.3	4.4	17 (84)	.11 (82)	2.88 (95)	76% (49)	11% (89)	0.95 (77)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Offense	13	47% (86)	48% (10)	20.9	30.2	244.7	8.1	11.7	30 (9)	13 (103)	.4 (13)	1.5 (91)	29% (31)	34% (41)	.32 (74)	5% (44)	1.7 (131)
TROY Defense	12	47% (48)	42% (76)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (109)	.25 (79)	1.6 (76)	29% (107)	30% (71)	.28 (58)	5% (91)	2 (47)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Defense	13	48% (56)	39% (54)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (104)	.19 (45)	1.6 (62)	35% (23)	29% (44)	.3 (65)	5% (106)	2.2 (110)
TROY Offense	12	46% (92)	48% (15)	17.8	28.3	213.1	7.5	12	21 (51)	9 (48)	.36 (25)	1.5 (81)	31% (64)	35% (32)	.41 (35)	5% (50)	1.9 (109)

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 2.50 #52
Texas State's Offense Rating: 23.07 #38
Texas State's Defense Rating: 5.36 #29
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Texas State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Texas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.4 #48
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #20
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #82

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: 2.50 Troy: -8.115

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: 5.4 Troy: -6.6

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: -8.115 #112
Troy's Offense Rating: 20.68 #58
Troy's Defense Rating: 15.27 #111
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Troy's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Troy's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6 #96
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #93
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #90

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.8
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 24

Texas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Texas State 32
Troy 20

Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Texas State 19
Troy 17

Total Points: 36

Based on Entire Season
Texas State 31
Troy 26

Total Points: 57

Troy Scoring
Offense: 26 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.3
Defense: 28.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.5

Troy's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	Texas State	41	Troy	48	Texas State -7.5	Troy	53.5	Over
2024	10/03	Troy	17	Texas State	38	Texas State -14.5	Texas State	56.0	Under
2023	10/28	Texas State	13	Troy	31	Troy -6.5	Troy	53.0	Under
2022	10/15	Troy	17	Texas State	14	Troy -16.5	Texas State	47.0	Under
2021	10/16	Texas State	28	Troy	31	Troy -7.5	Texas State	49.0	Over
2020	10/10	Troy	37	Texas State	17	Troy -7.0	Troy	59.0	Under
2019	11/16	Texas State	27	Troy	63	Troy -7	Troy	65.0	Over
2018	11/17	Troy	12	Texas State	7	Troy -23	Texas State	47.5	Under
2017	11/24	Troy	62	Texas State	9	Troy -23.5	Troy	53.5	Over
2016	11/26	Texas State	7	Troy	40	Troy -26.5	Troy	57.5	Under
2013	11/29	Troy	42	Texas State	28	Troy -4.5	Troy	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Troy	10	7	4 Overs
Texas State	1	4	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 6	4 - 7	3 - 3	1 - 4
Road Teams	6 - 5	7 - 4	4 - 1	3 - 3

(#52) TXST at (#112) TROY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TXST	TROY
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#52	#112
SP+SP+	#48	#96
Perf GradeGrade	#16	#89
OffenseOff	#10	#52
DefenseDef	#27	#107
Spec TeamsST	#43	#125
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#82	#65

Texas State Notes(11/29) How the fuck did this offense fail so much in 24?
(11/29) Off torched S Al, 530 yds, Def forced 3 TOs
(11/25) Awful L vs Ga St, Def torched 500+, Off 4 TOs
(11/18) 2 str W's, killed SoMiss, McCloud/Rgame great
(11/3) 2 awful L's, season slipping, McCloud replaced?
(10/20) Off/McCloud awful in bad L (ODU), 2 TOs, woof
(10/12) Off 600 yds (271 rush) killing Ark St. Def OK
(10/4) Great Pass Off, run enough. TO's an issue, fun team
(9/12) Spread Off fun. McCloud looks great w/ weapons
(9/8) Dog fight W over Lamar? 2 TOs, 156 penalty yds!
(9/8) Torched UTSA, McCould good, Run D great
(7/30) OL has 3/5 back. RB Mahdi great/depth. WR v good.
Texas State Injury Report

Troy Notes(11/18) 2 str W's, upset GaSo. QB Caldwell great TW
(11/3) Blasted C. Car, Rgame 344 yds, 6.4 ypc in upset
(10/27) Still fighting, close L (Ark St), Off 450+, Def bad
(10/22) QB Crowder out for season, 2 QB split for now
(10/16) Run game is awful, Run defense is almost as bad
(10/4) Runs 56% but horrible success. QB decent, D bad
(9/8) Serious Rgame issues, bad 0-2 start. Lotta flags
(9/8) QB Crower JAG, D all. 214 Ryds @ home (Nev L)
(7/30) New HC Parker (ND OC), OC Reagan (WVU QB)
(7/30) Major roster TO. 25 transfers out, only 11 in
(7/30) Bottom 5 ret prod. Lost QB, RB, top 3 WR
(7/30) OL has some pieces, Def massive losses
Troy Injury Report

Texas State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	TROY Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#10	#107
SuccessSuc	#17	#87
ExplosiveExp	#115	#50
PPAPPA	#25	#77
PowerPwr	#38	#111
SP+SP+	#20	#90
Pts POPPO	#72	#65
HavocHav	#29	#60

Texas State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	TROY Def
Run GameRun	#44	#77
Run SuccessRSuc	#14	#87
Run ExplRExp	#110	#36
PPAExp	#49	#68
Run BlockR Blk	#27	-
OL YdsOLY	#11	#64
Stuff RateStuff	#23	#80
TackleTak	-	#95

Texas State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	TROY Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#106
Pass SuccessPSuc	#10	#76
Pass ExplPExl	#91	#76
PPAExp	#13	#79
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#8	#133
F7 HavocF7	#35	#40
DB HavocDB	#44	#91

Troy on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	TROY Off	TXST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#52	#27
SuccessSuc	#49	#31
ExplosiveExp	#87	#107
PPAPPA	#50	#50
PowerPwr	#58	#29
SP+SP+	#93	#82
Pts POPPO	#22	#33
HavocHav	#75	#26

Troy Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	TROY Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	#51	#15
Run SuccessRSuc	#94	#21
Run ExplRExp	#77	#123
PPAExp	#82	#67
Run BlockR Blk	#66	-
OL YdsOLY	#95	#60
Stuff RateStuff	#93	#31
TackleTak	-	#66

Troy Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	TROY Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	#88	#95
Pass SuccessPSuc	#15	#54
Pass ExplPExl	#81	#62
PPAExp	#25	#45
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#92	#8
F7 HavocF7	#89	#7
DB HavocDB	#50	#106

Program Comparison
TROY 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

TXST 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Veterans Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 76°

Rematch from Week 6
Texas State 14.5 (56.0)
Texas State won at Troy this year (38-17)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat Troy last year (38-17)
Troy beat Texas State in 2023 (31-13)
Troy beat Texas State in 2022 (17-14)

TXST's OC Mack Leftwich (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jordan McCloud (Tr)	272	389	70%	3222	30	13	8.3
RJ Martinez (Tr)	18	24	75%	148	0	1	6.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ismail Mahdi	183	991	4	5.4	45
Lincoln Pare	94	547	8	5.8	73
Torrance Burgess Jr. (Tr)	60	367	2	6.1	57
Jordan McCloud (Tr)	74	278	7	3.8	42

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaden Williams (Tr)	57	807	7	14.2	70
Joey Hobert	70	680	8	9.7	40
Kole Wilson	43	630	4	14.7	53
Chris Dawn Jr.	37	418	6	11.3	60

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Dexter McCoil (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Polk (Tr)	68	6	2	5	2
Ryan Nolan	52	1	0	0	1
James Neal (Tr)	50	2	0	1	1
Max Harris (Tr)	44	3	1	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kalil Alexander	40	11	6	5	2
Steven Parker (Tr)	29	9	5	1	1
Jo'Laison Landry	33	8	5	4	0
Ben Bell	13	6	3	6	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chris Mills	33	3	1	0	7
Bobby Crosby	18	1	0	0	5
Joshua Eaton	24	2	1	1	5

TROY's OC Sean Reagan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Matthew Caldwell	141	224	63%	1608	13	8	7.2
Will Crowder	44	63	70%	547	5	0	8.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Damien Taylor	173	1010	7	5.8	56
Gerald Green (Tr)	111	545	3	4.9	51
Tucker Kilcrease	39	118	0	3.0	25
Will Crowder	17	63	1	3.7	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devonte Ross	76	1044	11	13.7	98
Landon Parker	27	350	0	13.0	33
Peyton Higgins	31	301	1	9.7	37
Zeriah Beason	16	208	0	13.0	35

View Troy's Full Roster

TROY's DC Nathan Burton (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brendan Jackson (Tr)	77	16	2	2	3
Jordan Stringer	77	8	2	1	0
Justin Powe	67	2	1	0	4
Ian Conerly-Goodly (Tr)	54	2	0	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Phillip Lee	30	11	5	7	1
Julian Peterson	25	5	3	1	0
Brendan Jackson (Tr)	77	16	2	2	3
Jordan Stringer	77	8	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Damaje Yancey	49	4	2	0	8
LJ Green	27	2	0	1	6
Justin Powe	67	2	1	0	4