Texas State at Sam Houston - 2024 Matchup Preview
Texas State logo Texas State Bobcats vs Sam Houston BearkatsSam Houston logo
Saturday, September 28th 2024 (3:00 PM EDT)
Texas State -11 (55.0) (-410)  Open: -7.5
Sam Houston 40 - Texas State: 39

 
Bobcats (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 37 - 25 (34 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Game in Dome
SHSU 3rd straight Home Game
TXST coming off BYE
SHSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Texas State -11  (SP+ TXST -12.5)

Projected Score: TXST: 30 - SHSU: 19 (50)
TXST Win prob: 78% | Cover: 49%
TXST Travel: 151 miles
Bearkats (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach K. C. Keeler (88 - 36)
Avg Score : 24 - 21 (21 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Texas State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Texas State vs Lamar-26
Sat 9/7 Texas State vs UTSA-2.558.5W 49 - 10OY
Thu 9/12 Texas State vs Arizona State-2.558.5L 28 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28 Texas State vs Sam Houston-11.055.0L 39 - 40ON
Thu 10/3 Texas State at Troy-14.556.0W 38 - 17UY
Sat 10/12 Texas State vs Arkansas State-13.566.0W 41 - 9UY
Sat 10/19 Texas State at Old Dominion-10.560.0L 14 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/29 Texas State vs Louisiana-4.060.5L 17 - 23UN
Sat 11/9 Texas State at UL Monroe-9.550.0W 38 - 17OY
Sat 11/16 Texas State vs Southern Miss-27.556.5W 58 - 3OY
Sat 11/23 Texas State vs Georgia State-23.059.5L 44 - 52ON
Fri 11/29 Texas State at South Alabama-2.560.5W 45 - 38OY
Fri 1/3 Texas State vs North Texas-15.567.5W 30 - 28UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule
Sam Houston's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Sam Houston at Rice+9.549.0W 34 - 14UY
Sat 9/7 Sam Houston at UCF+21.553.5L 14 - 45ON
Sat 9/14 Sam Houston vs Hawai'i-3.548.5W 31 - 13UY
Sat 9/21 Sam Houston vs New Mexico State-15.544.5W 31 - 11UY
Sat 9/28 Sam Houston vs Texas State+11.055.0W 40 - 39OY
Thu 10/3 Sam Houston at UTEP-10.049.5W 41 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/16 Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky-1.555.0L 14 - 31UN
Tue 10/22 Sam Houston vs Florida International-5.047.0W 10 - 7UN
Tue 10/29 Sam Houston vs Louisiana Tech-10.545.5W 9 - 3UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Sam Houston at Kennesaw State-21.042.5W 23 - 17UN
Sat 11/23 Sam Houston at Jacksonville State+5.557.5L 11 - 21UN
Fri 11/29 Sam Houston vs Liberty+2.547.5W 20 - 18UY
Thu 12/19 Sam Houston vs Georgia Southern+3.548.0W 31 - 26OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Sam Houston's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TXST#25 (.25)48% (17)36.549% (14)3.41 (11)19448% (10)2453.89 (72)#50 (.14)39% (31)24.538% (21)39% (54)3.47 (33)56.51.61.2
SHSU#115 (.1)39% (107)23.841% (100)3.18 (44)18038% (105)1682.97 (129)#31 (.11)42% (70)20.547% (105)37% (27)3.84 (75)37.91.22.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TXST#25 (.25)48% (17)49% (14)3.41 (11)19448% (10)2453.89 (72)#50 (.14)39% (31)38% (21)39% (54)3.47 (33)56.51.61.2
SHSU#115 (.1)39% (107)41% (100)3.18 (44)18038% (105)1682.97 (129)#31 (.11)42% (70)47% (105)37% (27)3.84 (75)37.91.22.1



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Offense1336.533.848%3.891.6244381942455.252%47%49%48%13%.25
SHSU Defense1320.515.241.8%3.842.1 - - - - - 51%48%47%37%17%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Defense1324.52438.6%3.471.2 - - - - - 51%48%38%39%19%.14
SHSU Offense1323.82139.3%2.971.2193491801684.357%43%41%38%15%.1

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas State1328:1724.145%64%6.156.51.61.26.92.4231
Sam Houston1332:1018.839%67%4.637.91.22.15.42.2230.4
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Offense1352% (59)49% (14)37.1193.75.225 (41).16 (49)3.41 (11)75% (53)8% (35)0.88 (110)
SHSU Defense1351% (74)47% (105) - - - - .17 (92)3.37 (119)75% (75)10% (56)0.83 (9)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Defense1351% (72)38% (21) - - - - .12 (67)2.97 (60)68% (34)14% (7)1.13 (123)
SHSU Offense1357% (25)41% (100)42.5180.44.321 (59).1 (83)3.18 (44)68% (104)10% (69)0.9 (98)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Offense1347% (86)48% (10)20.930.2244.78.111.730 (9)13 (103).4 (13)1.5 (91)29% (31)34% (41).32 (74)5% (44)1.7 (131)
SHSU Defense1348% (60)37% (27) - - - - - - 16 (10).06 (6)1.4 (9)32% (57)25% (11).21 (32)6% (58)1.8 (12)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Defense1348% (56)39% (54) - - - - - - 7 (104).19 (45)1.6 (62)35% (23)29% (44).3 (65)5% (106)2.2 (110)
SHSU Offense1343% (113)38% (105)16.726.8168.26.310.115 (98)9 (48).13 (114)1.5 (106)30% (51)24% (126).13 (130)5% (47)2 (95)

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 2.50  #52
Texas State's Offense Rating: 23.07  #38
Texas State's Defense Rating: 5.36  #29
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2%  #82
Texas State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Texas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.4  #48
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2  #20
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.4  #82

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: 2.50   Sam Houston: -6.86

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: 5.4   Sam Houston: -6.9




Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -6.86  #88
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: 14.75  #110
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 7.81  #54
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #102
Sam Houston's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Sam Houston's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9  #98
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.0  #117
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.8  #46

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.8
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 24

Texas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Texas State 30
Sam Houston 19


Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
Sam Houston 20
Texas State 18

Total Points: 38

Based on Entire Season
Texas State 27
Sam Houston 23

Total Points: 50
Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 23.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 21
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.2

Sam Houston's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/28Sam Houston40Texas State39Texas State -11Sam Houston55.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Sam Houston111 Overs
Texas State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0

(#52) TXST at (#88) SHSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTXSTSHSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #52 #88
SP+SP+ #48 #98
Perf GradeGrade #16 #95
OffenseOff #10 #104
DefenseDef #27 #75
Spec TeamsST #43 #105
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #82 #102
Texas State Notes
(11/29) How the fuck did this offense fail so much in 24?
(11/29) Off torched S Al, 530 yds, Def forced 3 TOs
(11/25) Awful L vs Ga St, Def torched 500+, Off 4 TOs
(11/18) 2 str W's, killed SoMiss, McCloud/Rgame great
(11/3) 2 awful L's, season slipping, McCloud replaced?
(10/20) Off/McCloud awful in bad L (ODU), 2 TOs, woof
(10/12) Off 600 yds (271 rush) killing Ark St. Def OK
(10/4) Great Pass Off, run enough. TO's an issue, fun team
(9/12) Spread Off fun. McCloud looks great w/ weapons
(9/8) Dog fight W over Lamar? 2 TOs, 156 penalty yds!
(9/8) Torched UTSA, McCould good, Run D great
(7/30) OL has 3/5 back. RB Mahdi great/depth. WR v good.
Texas State Injury Report
Sam Houston Notes
(12/1) HC Keeler left for Temple? From PA but why?
(11/25) Off is awful, 11 pts vs Jax St. Def good but ugh
(11/18) Awful perf. @ Kenn St, nearly lost. Took OT, Off bad
(10/23) Off does not function w/ Bauer. Must have Watson
(10/16) Backup QB Bauer meh. Killed by WKU w/o Watson
(10/3) Rgame good, Pass better TW. QB Watson a weapon
(9/29) Rgame awesome in huge W (Tex St). QB can scoot
(9/1) Huge W @ Rice, lines dominated, QB OK, D great
(7/30) 2nd year in FBS/CUSA, started 0-8, won 3/4 late
(7/30) New QB Bauer (CMU starter) should have good WR
(7/30) 4/5 OL and top 2 RB back, improve poor run off LY?
(7/30) Def returns but new DC. Roster most CUSA exp'd
Sam Houston Injury Report
Texas State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
TXST OffSHSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #10 #75
SuccessSuc #17 #70
ExplosiveExp #115 #3
PPAPPA #25 #31
PowerPwr #38 #54
SP+SP+ #20 #46
Pts POPPO #72 #75
HavocHav #29 #58
Texas State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
TXST OffSHSU Def
Run GameRun #44 #121
Run SuccessRSuc #14 #105
Run ExplRExp #110 #9
PPAExp #49 #92
Run BlockR Blk #27 -
OL YdsOLY #11 #119
Stuff RateStuff #23 #129
TackleTak -  #48
Texas State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
TXST OffSHSU Def
Pass GamePass #24 #40
Pass SuccessPSuc #10 #27
Pass ExplPExl #91 #9
PPAExp #13 #6
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #8 #34
F7 HavocF7 #35 #56
DB HavocDB #44 #58
Sam Houston on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatSHSU OffTXST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #104 #27
SuccessSuc #107 #31
ExplosiveExp #127 #107
PPAPPA #115 #50
PowerPwr #110 #29
SP+SP+ #117 #82
Pts POPPO #129 #33
HavocHav #53 #26
Sam Houston Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
SHSU OffTXST Def
Run GameRun #103 #15
Run SuccessRSuc #100 #21
Run ExplRExp #98 #123
PPAExp #83 #67
Run BlockR Blk #111 -
OL YdsOLY #44 #60
Stuff RateStuff #34 #31
TackleTak -  #66
Sam Houston Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatSHSU OffTXST Def
Pass GamePass #97 #95
Pass SuccessPSuc #105 #54
Pass ExplPExl #106 #62
PPAExp #114 #45
Pass Block/RushP Blk #71 #8
F7 HavocF7 #69 #7
DB HavocDB #47 #106
Program Comparison
SHSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

TXST 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in NRG Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 89° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 5
Texas State 11.0 (55.0)
Sam Houston won vs Texas State this year (40-39)

Previous Matchups
Sam Houston beat Texas State last year (40-39)

  
TXST's OC Mack Leftwich (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jordan McCloud (Tr)27238970%322230138.3
RJ Martinez (Tr)182475%148016.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ismail Mahdi18399145.445
Lincoln Pare9454785.873
Torrance Burgess Jr. (Tr)6036726.157
Jordan McCloud (Tr)7427873.842
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaden Williams (Tr)57807714.270
Joey Hobert7068089.740
Kole Wilson43630414.753
Chris Dawn Jr.37418611.360

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Dexter McCoil (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Polk (Tr)686252
Ryan Nolan521001
James Neal (Tr)502011
Max Harris (Tr)443120
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kalil Alexander4011652
Steven Parker (Tr)299511
Jo'Laison Landry338540
Ben Bell136362
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Mills333107
Bobby Crosby181005
Joshua Eaton242115

SHSU's OC Brad Cornelsen (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hunter Watson15225360%15981186.3
Jase Bauer (Tr)406562%310214.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jevyon Ducker14871974.986
Hunter Watson15262374.146
DJ McKinney9547935.059
Jase Bauer (Tr)4519504.325
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Simeon Evans43474511.064
Qua'Vez Humphreys18362420.167
Noah Smith3528508.122
Ife Adeyi2623819.232

View Sam Houston's Full Roster

SHSU's DC Skyler Cassity (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Weaver863016
Kavian Gaither848052
Trey Fields726121
Isaiah Cash582109
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Murray3412620
Briceon Hayes267532
Isaiah Nixon196450
Richard Outland155330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Cash582109
Caleb Weaver863016
David Fisher332006