Texas State at Old Dominion - 2024 Matchup Preview

Texas State Bobcats at Old Dominion Monarchs

Saturday, October 19th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Texas State -10.5 (60.0) (-380) Open: -7.5
Old Dominion 24 - Texas State: 14 (Sun Belt)

Bobcats (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (34 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ODU is playing their 4th straight game
TXST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Texas State -6.5 (SP+ TXST -11.5)
Projected Score: TXST: 33 - ODU: 26 (59)
TXST Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
TXST Travel: 1334 miles, 1 hrs behind

Monarchs (5 - 7) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Ricky Rahne (15 - 23)
Avg Score : 32 - 19 (34 - 9 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TXST Players
ODU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Texas State vs Lamar	-26
Sat 9/7	Texas State vs UTSA	-2.5	58.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
Thu 9/12	Texas State vs Arizona State	-2.5	58.5	L 28 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Texas State vs Sam Houston	-11.0	55.0	L 39 - 40	O	N
Thu 10/3	Texas State at Troy	-14.5	56.0	W 38 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Texas State vs Arkansas State	-13.5	66.0	W 41 - 9	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Texas State at Old Dominion	-10.5	60.0	L 14 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/29	Texas State vs Louisiana	-4.0	60.5	L 17 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/9	Texas State at UL Monroe	-9.5	50.0	W 38 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Texas State vs Southern Miss	-27.5	56.5	W 58 - 3	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Texas State vs Georgia State	-23.0	59.5	L 44 - 52	O	N
Fri 11/29	Texas State at South Alabama	-2.5	60.5	W 45 - 38	O	Y
Fri 1/3	Texas State vs North Texas	-15.5	67.5	W 30 - 28	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule

Old Dominion's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Old Dominion at South Carolina	+20.5	49.5	L 19 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Old Dominion vs East Carolina	-1.5	53.5	L 14 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/14	Old Dominion vs Virginia Tech	+15.5	47.5	L 17 - 37	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Old Dominion at Bowling Green	+11.0	51.5	W 30 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/5	Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina	+4.0	51.5	L 37 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/12	Old Dominion at Georgia State	+3.0	53.0	W 21 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Old Dominion vs Texas State	+10.5	60.0	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Thu 10/24	Old Dominion vs Georgia Southern	+1.0	52.0	W 47 - 19	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Old Dominion at App State	-2.5	58.0	L 20 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Old Dominion vs James Madison	+1.5	51.0	L 32 - 35	O	N
Sat 11/23	Old Dominion vs Marshall	-3.0	51.0	L 35 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/30	Old Dominion at Arkansas State	-5.5	58.5	W 40 - 32	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST	#23 (.29)	47% (20)	36.5	46% (36)	3.19 (53)	188	48% (15)	271	4.55 (19)	#64 (.18)	40% (45)	29	39% (37)	42% (77)	3.7 (59)	68	1.8	1.7
ODU	#102 (.13)	38% (109)	32	41% (92)	3.08 (76)	154	37% (107)	195	3.14 (117)	#30 (.13)	44% (100)	18.5	42% (60)	47% (124)	3.49 (46)	60.6	1.4	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ODU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Offense	13	36.5	34.2	46.7%	4.55	1.8	24	459	188	271	4.6	51%	48%	46%	48%	15%	.29
ODU Defense	13	18.5	8.5	44.1%	3.49	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	42%	47%	17%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Defense	13	29	32.8	40.4%	3.7	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	39%	42%	19%	.18
ODU Offense	13	32	34.3	38.5%	3.14	1.4	17	348	154	195	4.2	50%	49%	41%	37%	20%	.13

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas State	13	29:04	23.9	44%	66%	7.2	68	1.8	1.7	7.7	2.6	4	29.1
Old Dominion	13	24:49	16.5	37%	27%	6.5	60.6	1.4	1.6	6.1	1.5	2	29.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Offense	13	51% (56)	46% (36)	40.5	187.8	4.6	33 (8)	.24 (21)	3.19 (53)	78% (31)	11% (84)	1.13 (15)
ODU Defense	13	52% (98)	42% (60)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (11)	2.81 (22)	70% (50)	11% (56)	0.73 (2)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Defense	13	50% (69)	39% (37)	-	-	-	-	.12 (56)	2.87 (28)	54% (3)	14% (6)	1.21 (127)
ODU Offense	13	50% (70)	41% (92)	36.5	153.5	4.2	15 (100)	.17 (58)	3.08 (76)	62% (127)	15% (131)	1.18 (4)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Offense	13	48% (73)	48% (15)	22.1	33	270.9	8.2	12.3	24 (41)	9 (40)	.36 (36)	1.5 (97)	32% (63)	36% (22)	.47 (24)	4% (8)	2 (80)
ODU Defense	13	47% (38)	47% (124)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.31 (93)	1.5 (39)	28% (126)	30% (71)	.24 (36)	6% (70)	2.1 (76)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Defense	13	49% (68)	42% (77)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.27 (66)	1.7 (109)	36% (10)	36% (123)	.42 (113)	5% (117)	2 (47)
ODU Offense	13	49% (68)	37% (107)	15.7	27.8	194.8	7	12.4	20 (70)	11 (68)	.15 (112)	1.7 (39)	35% (119)	31% (70)	.3 (79)	5% (37)	2.2 (33)

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 2.50 #52
Texas State's Offense Rating: 23.07 #38
Texas State's Defense Rating: 5.36 #29
2024 Talent Rating: 227.00 #108
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Texas State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Texas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.4 #48
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #20
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #82

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 259.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: 2.50 Old Dominion: -2.42

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: 5.4 Old Dominion: -6.0

Old Dominion's Power Ratings
Old Dominion's Power Rating: -2.42 #77
Old Dominion's Offense Rating: 23.31 #34
Old Dominion's Defense Rating: 9.12 #66
2024 Talent Rating: 154.00 #126
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Old Dominion's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Old Dominion's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.0 #95
Old Dominion's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #78
Old Dominion's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.3 #99

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 235.21
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.2
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Texas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Texas State 33
Old Dominion 26

Projected Total Points: 59

Old Dominion Scoring
Offense: 32 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.3
Defense: 18.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 8.5

Old Dominion's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/19	Old Dominion	24	Texas State	14	Texas State -10.5	Old Dominion	60.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Old Dominion	1	1	0 Overs
Texas State	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

(#52) TXST at (#77) ODU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TXST	ODU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#52	#77
SP+SP+	#48	#95
Perf GradeGrade	#16	#117
OffenseOff	#10	#126
DefenseDef	#27	#82
Spec TeamsST	#43	#114
TalentTal	#108	#126
Blue ChipsBC%	#82	#102

Texas State Notes(11/29) How the fuck did this offense fail so much in 24?
(11/29) Off torched S Al, 530 yds, Def forced 3 TOs
(11/25) Awful L vs Ga St, Def torched 500+, Off 4 TOs
(11/18) 2 str W's, killed SoMiss, McCloud/Rgame great
(11/3) 2 awful L's, season slipping, McCloud replaced?
(10/20) Off/McCloud awful in bad L (ODU), 2 TOs, woof
(10/12) Off 600 yds (271 rush) killing Ark St. Def OK
(10/4) Great Pass Off, run enough. TO's an issue, fun team
(9/12) Spread Off fun. McCloud looks great w/ weapons
(9/8) Dog fight W over Lamar? 2 TOs, 156 penalty yds!
(9/8) Torched UTSA, McCould good, Run D great
(7/30) OL has 3/5 back. RB Mahdi great/depth. WR v good.
Texas State Injury Report

Old Dominion Notes(11/25) Fight w/ Marshall, Off great but 2 TOs cost em
(11/18) Fight w/ JMU, QB awful, Rgame good, R D awful
(11/3) 4 TOs broke W streak, QB Joseph good, Def bad
(10/24) Rgame good, Run D good in big W (GaSo)
(10/20) Rgame good, Run D better in big upset (Tex St)
(10/13) Rgame good, Run Def great vs Ga St. QB meh
(10/10) Rgame 200 yds(5.4 pc) L to C.Car., Def torched
(10/10) QB Joseph a huge upgrade, JAG w/ mobility
(9/28) Rgame better (189/5.3), QBs abysmal in L to BGU
(8/26) OL gave up most sacks in CFB LY
(7/30) Year 5, won last 2 LY to go bowling.
(7/30) OC Decker's off is unique, but roster is limiting
Old Dominion Injury Report

Texas State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	ODU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#10	#82
SuccessSuc	#20	#100
ExplosiveExp	#50	#4
PPAPPA	#23	#30
PowerPwr	#38	#66
SP+SP+	#20	#99
Pts POPPO	#19	#46
HavocHav	#48	#56

Texas State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	ODU Def
Run GameRun	#44	#34
Run SuccessRSuc	#36	#60
Run ExplRExp	#15	#2
PPAExp	#21	#11
Run BlockR Blk	#27	-
OL YdsOLY	#53	#22
Stuff RateStuff	#59	#42
TackleTak	-	#120

Texas State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	ODU Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#99
Pass SuccessPSuc	#15	#124
Pass ExplPExl	#97	#39
PPAExp	#36	#93
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#8	#128
F7 HavocF7	#84	#56
DB HavocDB	#8	#70

Old Dominion on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	ODU Off	TXST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#126	#27
SuccessSuc	#109	#45
ExplosiveExp	#9	#126
PPAPPA	#102	#64
PowerPwr	#34	#29
SP+SP+	#78	#82
Pts POPPO	#117	#59
HavocHav	#122	#17

Old Dominion Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	ODU Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	#10	#15
Run SuccessRSuc	#92	#37
Run ExplRExp	#4	#127
PPAExp	#58	#56
Run BlockR Blk	#124	-
OL YdsOLY	#76	#28
Stuff RateStuff	#105	#21
TackleTak	-	#66

Old Dominion Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	ODU Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	#134	#95
Pass SuccessPSuc	#107	#77
Pass ExplPExl	#39	#109
PPAExp	#112	#66
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#134	#8
F7 HavocF7	#131	#6
DB HavocDB	#37	#117

Program Comparison
ODU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Average G5

TXST 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Foreman Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
Texas State 10.5 (60.0)
Old Dominion won vs Texas State this year (24-14)

Previous Matchups
Old Dominion beat Texas State in 2024 (24-14)

TXST's OC Mack Leftwich (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jordan McCloud (Tr)	272	389	70%	3222	30	13	8.3
RJ Martinez (Tr)	18	24	75%	148	0	1	6.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ismail Mahdi	183	991	4	5.4	45
Lincoln Pare	94	547	8	5.8	73
Torrance Burgess Jr. (Tr)	60	367	2	6.1	57
Jordan McCloud (Tr)	74	278	7	3.8	42

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaden Williams (Tr)	57	807	7	14.2	70
Joey Hobert	70	680	8	9.7	40
Kole Wilson	43	630	4	14.7	53
Chris Dawn Jr.	37	418	6	11.3	60

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Dexter McCoil (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Polk (Tr)	68	6	2	5	2
Ryan Nolan	52	1	0	0	1
James Neal (Tr)	50	2	0	1	1
Max Harris (Tr)	44	3	1	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kalil Alexander	40	11	6	5	2
Steven Parker (Tr)	29	9	5	1	1
Jo'Laison Landry	33	8	5	4	0
Ben Bell	13	6	3	6	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chris Mills	33	3	1	0	7
Bobby Crosby	18	1	0	0	5
Joshua Eaton	24	2	1	1	5

ODU's OC Kevin Decker (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Colton Joseph	133	222	60%	1623	11	5	7.3
Grant Wilson	48	86	56%	507	4	3	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Aaron Young (Tr)	149	768	6	5.2	51
Colton Joseph	114	647	11	5.7	39
Bryce Duke (Tr)	46	285	0	6.2	48
Quinn Henicle	34	278	3	8.2	92

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Isiah Paige	61	814	3	13.3	72
Pat Conroy (Tr)	37	523	5	14.1	75
Diante Vines (Tr)	36	393	2	10.9	40
Myles Alston	23	246	0	10.7	30

View Old Dominion's Full Roster

ODU's DC Blake Seiler (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Koa Naotala	87	5	4	5	1
Jahron Manning	85	6	1	0	3
Mario Thompson	66	10	5	5	1
Jahleel Culbreath	62	8	0	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mario Thompson	66	10	5	5	1
Koa Naotala	87	5	4	5	1
Kris Trinidad	44	10	4	5	3
Jeremy Mack Jr.	22	4	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Rasheed Reason	50	2	0	4
Dywan Griffin	4	0	0	3
Jahron Manning	85	6	1	3