Texas State at Old Dominion - 2024 Matchup Preview
Texas State logo Texas State Bobcats at Old Dominion MonarchsOld Dominion logo
Saturday, October 19th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Texas State -10.5 (60.0) (-380)  Open: -7.5
Old Dominion 24 - Texas State: 14  (Sun Belt)

 
Bobcats (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 37 - 25 (34 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 4)
ODU is playing their 4th straight game
TXST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Texas State -6.5   (SP+ TXST -11.5)

Projected Score: TXST: 33 - ODU: 26 (58)
TXST Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
TXST Travel: 1334 miles, 1 hrs behind
Monarchs (5 - 7) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Ricky Rahne (15 - 23)
Avg Score : 28 - 28 (28 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 4)
 
Texas State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Texas State vs Lamar-26
Sat 9/7 Texas State vs UTSA-2.558.5W 49 - 10OY
Thu 9/12 Texas State vs Arizona State-2.558.5L 28 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28 Texas State vs Sam Houston-11.055.0L 39 - 40ON
Thu 10/3 Texas State at Troy-14.556.0W 38 - 17UY
Sat 10/12 Texas State vs Arkansas State-13.566.0W 41 - 9UY
Sat 10/19 Texas State at Old Dominion-10.560.0L 14 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/29 Texas State vs Louisiana-4.060.5L 17 - 23UN
Sat 11/9 Texas State at UL Monroe-9.550.0W 38 - 17OY
Sat 11/16 Texas State vs Southern Miss-27.556.5W 58 - 3OY
Sat 11/23 Texas State vs Georgia State-23.059.5L 44 - 52ON
Fri 11/29 Texas State at South Alabama-2.560.5W 45 - 38OY
Fri 1/3 Texas State vs North Texas-15.567.5W 30 - 28UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule
Old Dominion's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Old Dominion at South Carolina+20.549.5L 19 - 23UY
Sat 9/7 Old Dominion vs East Carolina-1.553.5L 14 - 20UN
Sat 9/14 Old Dominion vs Virginia Tech+15.547.5L 17 - 37ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28 Old Dominion at Bowling Green+11.051.5W 30 - 27OY
Sat 10/5 Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina+4.051.5L 37 - 45ON
Sat 10/12 Old Dominion at Georgia State+3.053.0W 21 - 14UY
Sat 10/19 Old Dominion vs Texas State+10.560.0W 24 - 14UY
Thu 10/24 Old Dominion vs Georgia Southern+1.052.0W 47 - 19OY
Sat 11/2 Old Dominion at App State-2.558.0L 20 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Old Dominion vs James Madison+1.551.0L 32 - 35ON
Sat 11/23 Old Dominion vs Marshall-3.051.0L 35 - 42ON
Sat 11/30 Old Dominion at Arkansas State-5.558.5W 40 - 32OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 0

Predictions for Old Dominion's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TXST#23 (.29)47% (20)36.546% (36)3.19 (53)18848% (15)2714.55 (19)#64 (.18)40% (45)24.539% (37)42% (77)3.7 (59)681.81.7
ODU#102 (.13)38% (109)2841% (92)3.08 (76)15437% (107)1953.14 (117)#30 (.13)44% (100)2842% (60)47% (124)3.49 (46)60.61.41.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TXST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ODU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Offense1336.533.846.7%4.551.8244591882714.651%48%46%48%15%.29
ODU Defense132827.844.1%3.491.6 - - - - - 52%47%42%47%17%.13
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Defense1324.52440.4%3.71.7 - - - - - 50%49%39%42%19%.18
ODU Offense132828.238.5%3.141.4173481541954.250%49%41%37%20%.13

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas State1329:0423.944%66%7.2681.81.77.72.6429.1
Old Dominion1324:4916.537%27%6.560.61.41.66.11.5229.1
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Offense1351% (56)46% (36)40.5187.84.633 (8).24 (21)3.19 (53)78% (31)11% (84)1.13 (15)
ODU Defense1352% (98)42% (60) - - - - -.01 (11)2.81 (22)70% (50)11% (56)0.73 (2)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Defense1350% (69)39% (37) - - - - .12 (56)2.87 (28)54% (3)14% (6)1.21 (127)
ODU Offense1350% (70)41% (92)36.5153.54.215 (100).17 (58)3.08 (76)62% (127)15% (131)1.18 (4)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Offense1348% (73)48% (15)22.133270.98.212.324 (41)9 (40).36 (36)1.5 (97)32% (63)36% (22).47 (24)4% (8)2 (80)
ODU Defense1347% (38)47% (124) - - - - - - 11 (53).31 (93)1.5 (39)28% (126)30% (71).24 (36)6% (70)2.1 (76)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Defense1349% (68)42% (77) - - - - - - 11 (53).27 (66)1.7 (109)36% (10)36% (123).42 (113)5% (117)2 (47)
ODU Offense1349% (68)37% (107)15.727.8194.8712.420 (70)11 (68).15 (112)1.7 (39)35% (119)31% (70).3 (79)5% (37)2.2 (33)

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 2.50 #52
Texas State's Offense Rating: 23.07 #38
Texas State's Defense Rating: 5.36 #29
2024 Talent Rating: 456.00 #110
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Texas State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Texas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.4 #48
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #20
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #82

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 471.71
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: 2.50   Old Dominion: -2.42

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: 5.4   Old Dominion: -6.0




Old Dominion's Power Ratings
Old Dominion's Power Rating: -2.42 #77
Old Dominion's Offense Rating: 23.31 #34
Old Dominion's Defense Rating: 9.12 #66
2024 Talent Rating: 316.00 #126
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Old Dominion's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Old Dominion's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.0 #95
Old Dominion's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #78
Old Dominion's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.3 #99

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 471.71
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.8
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 24

Texas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Texas State 33
Old Dominion 26


Projected Total Points: 58
Old Dominion Scoring
Offense: 28 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.2
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Old Dominion's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/19Old Dominion24Texas State14Old DominionTexas State -10.5Old Dominion60.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Old Dominion110 Overs
Texas State001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0

(#52) Texas State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 2.50 #52
Offense Rating: 23.07 #38
Defense Rating: 5.36 #29
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.4 #48
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #20
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #82
Talent Rating: 456.00 #110
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
Great Offense Success Rate of 48%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.89 PPO
Great Run Success 49%
Great Pass Success 48%
Good OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Good in Scoring Position 3.47 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Texas State Notes
(11/29) Off torched S Al, 530 yds, Def forced 3 TOs
(11/25) Awful L vs Ga St, Def torched 500+, Off 4 TOs
(11/18) 2 str W's, killed SoMiss, McCloud/Rgame great
(11/3) 2 awful L's, season slipping, McCloud replaced?
(10/20) Off/McCloud awful in bad L (ODU), 2 TOs, woof
(10/12) Off 600 yds (271 rush) killing Ark St. Def OK
(10/4) Great Pass Off, run enough. TO's an issue, fun team
(9/12) Spread Off fun. McCloud looks great w/ weapons
(9/8) Dog fight W over Lamar? 2 TOs, 156 penalty yds!
(9/8) Torched UTSA, McCould good, Run D great
Texas State     Ratings Matchup     Old Dominion
Power #52
#77
Off #38
#34
Def #29
#66
Talent #110
#126
SP+ #48
#95
SP+ Off #20
#78
SP+ Def #82
#99

Rematch from Week 8
Texas State 10.5 (60.0)
Old Dominion won vs Texas State this year (24-14)

Previous Matchups
Old Dominion beat Texas State last year (24-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Foreman Field
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 66° - Wind: 8 mph


Team Information
Injuries: TXST | ODU
Depth Chart: TXST | ODU
Rosters: TXST | ODU
(#77) Old Dominion Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -2.42 #77
Offense Rating: 23.31 #34
Defense Rating: 9.12 #66
Overall SP+ Rating: -6.0 #95
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #78
Defense SP+ Rating: 31.3 #99
Talent Rating: 316.00 #126
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.75 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Poor Pass Success 40%
Poor OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.64 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Avg Pass Def Success 40%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Old Dominion Notes
(11/18) Fight w/ JMU, QB awful, Rgame good, R D awful
(11/3) 4 TOs broke W streak, QB Joseph good, Def bad
(10/24) Rgame good, Run D good in big W (GaSo)
(10/20) Rgame good, Run D better in big upset (Tex St)
(10/13) Rgame good, Run Def great vs Ga St. QB meh
(10/10) Rgame 200 yds(5.4 pc) L to C.Car., Def torched
(10/10) QB Joseph a huge upgrade, JAG w/ mobility
(9/28) Rgame better (189/5.3), QBs abysmal in L to BGU
(8/26) OL gave up most sacks in CFB LY
(7/30) Year 5, won last 2 LY to go bowling.


  
Texas State's OC Mack Leftwich
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jordan McCloud (Tr)27238970%322230138.3
RJ Martinez (Tr)182475%148016.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ismail Mahdi18399145.445
Lincoln Pare9454785.873
Greg Burrell6637035.642
Torrance Burgess Jr. (Tr)6036726.157
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaden Williams (Tr)57807714.270
Kole Wilson43630414.753
Chris Dawn Jr.37418611.360
Beau Sparks (Tr)25271210.824

View Texas State's Full Roster
Texas State's DC Dexter McCoil
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Polk (Tr)686252
Ryan Nolan521001
James Neal (Tr)502011
Max Harris (Tr)443120
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kalil Alexander4011652
Steven Parker (Tr)299511
Jo'Laison Landry338540
Ben Bell136362
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joshua Eaton242115
Bobby Crosby181005
Trez Moore (Tr)263024

Old Dominion's OC Kevin Decker
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Colton Joseph13322260%16231157.3
Grant Wilson488656%507435.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Aaron Young (Tr)14976865.251
Colton Joseph114647115.739
Bryce Duke (Tr)4628506.248
Quinn Henicle3427838.292
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Pat Conroy (Tr)37523514.175
Diante Vines (Tr)36393210.940
Demariyon Houston98339.230
Bryce Duke (Tr)95816.426

View Old Dominion's Full Roster
Old Dominion's DC Blake Seiler
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Koa Naotala875451
Jahron Manning856103
Mario Thompson6610551
Jahleel Culbreath628020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mario Thompson6610551
Koa Naotala875451
Kris Trinidad4410453
Jeremy Mack Jr.224320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rasheed Reason502004
Will Jones II (Tr)444103
Jahron Manning856103