Georgia State at Texas State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Georgia State Panthers at Texas State Bobcats

Saturday, November 23rd 2024 (7:00 PM EST)
Texas State -23 (59.5) (-2100) Open: -18.0
Georgia State 52 - Texas State: 44 (Sun Belt)

Panthers (3 - 9) (3 - 8 - 1)
Coach Dell McGee (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 20 - 38 (18 - 45 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TXST 2nd straight Home Game
TXST is playing their 4th straight game
GAST is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Texas State -26.5 (SP+ TXST -23)
Projected Score: GAST: 17 - TXST: 44 (61)
TXST Win prob: 95% | Cover: 56%
GAST Travel: 837 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Bobcats (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (38 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
GAST Players
TXST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Georgia State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Georgia State at Georgia Tech	+20.5	57.0	L 12 - 35	U	N
Sat 9/7	Georgia State vs Chattanooga	-9.5	51.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/14	Georgia State vs Vanderbilt	+8.5	45.5	W 36 - 32	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Georgia State vs Georgia Southern	-3.5	57.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Georgia State vs Old Dominion	-3.0	53.0	L 14 - 21	U	N
Thu 10/17	Georgia State at Marshall	+9.5	51.5	L 20 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/26	Georgia State at App State	+7.5	59.0	L 26 - 33	U	Y
Fri 11/1	Georgia State at UConn	+7.0	48.0	L 27 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Georgia State at James Madison	+14.5	53.5	L 7 - 38	U	N
Sat 11/16	Georgia State vs Arkansas State	-2.5	60.0	L 20 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/23	Georgia State at Texas State	+23.0	59.5	W 52 - 44	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Georgia State vs Coastal Carolina	-0.5	52.5	L 27 - 48	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Georgia State's Schedule

Texas State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Texas State vs Lamar	-26
Sat 9/7	Texas State vs UTSA	-2.5	58.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
Thu 9/12	Texas State vs Arizona State	-2.5	58.5	L 28 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Texas State vs Sam Houston	-11.0	55.0	L 39 - 40	O	N
Thu 10/3	Texas State at Troy	-14.5	56.0	W 38 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Texas State vs Arkansas State	-13.5	66.0	W 41 - 9	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Texas State at Old Dominion	-10.5	60.0	L 14 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/29	Texas State vs Louisiana	-4.0	60.5	L 17 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/9	Texas State at UL Monroe	-9.5	50.0	W 38 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Texas State vs Southern Miss	-27.5	56.5	W 58 - 3	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Texas State vs Georgia State	-23.0	59.5	L 44 - 52	O	N
Fri 11/29	Texas State at South Alabama	-2.5	60.5	W 45 - 38	O	Y
Fri 1/3	Texas State vs North Texas	-15.5	67.5	W 30 - 28	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
GAST	#68 (.19)	42% (72)	19.8	40% (105)	2.84 (112)	188	44% (41)	206	3.92 (65)	#94 (.22)	42% (68)	37.8	40% (43)	45% (111)	3.95 (83)	57.5	1.2	1.3
TXST	#23 (.29)	47% (20)	36.5	46% (36)	3.19 (53)	188	48% (15)	271	4.55 (19)	#64 (.18)	40% (45)	29	39% (37)	42% (77)	3.7 (59)	68	1.8	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
GAST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
GAST Offense	13	19.8	18	41.6%	3.92	1.2	20	394	188	206	4.8	55%	44%	40%	44%	15%	.19
TXST Defense	13	29	28.3	40.4%	3.7	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	39%	42%	19%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
GAST Defense	13	37.8	45.3	42.1%	3.95	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	40%	45%	15%	.22
TXST Offense	13	36.5	38	46.7%	4.55	1.8	24	459	188	271	4.6	51%	48%	46%	48%	15%	.29

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Georgia State	13	29:26	19.5	46%	47%	6.4	57.5	1.2	1.3	5.5	2	2	29.1
Texas State	13	29:04	23.9	44%	66%	7.2	68	1.8	1.7	7.7	2.6	4	29.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
GAST Offense	13	55% (29)	40% (105)	39.3	188.1	4.8	25 (37)	.15 (74)	2.84 (112)	78% (30)	11% (89)	1.16 (7)
TXST Defense	13	50% (69)	39% (37)	-	-	-	-	.12 (56)	2.87 (28)	54% (3)	14% (6)	1.21 (127)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
GAST Defense	13	47% (25)	40% (43)	-	-	-	-	.15 (72)	3.05 (56)	63% (19)	10% (63)	1.06 (95)
TXST Offense	13	51% (56)	46% (36)	40.5	187.8	4.6	33 (8)	.24 (21)	3.19 (53)	78% (31)	11% (84)	1.13 (15)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
GAST Offense	13	44% (104)	44% (41)	19.2	28.2	205.5	7.3	10.7	20 (70)	7 (21)	.31 (61)	1.5 (91)	31% (45)	33% (47)	.37 (58)	4% (14)	2.1 (38)
TXST Defense	13	49% (68)	42% (77)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.27 (66)	1.7 (109)	36% (10)	36% (123)	.42 (113)	5% (117)	2 (47)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
GAST Defense	13	52% (106)	45% (111)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.37 (113)	1.6 (76)	33% (55)	31% (89)	.42 (114)	4% (122)	2.2 (106)
TXST Offense	13	48% (73)	48% (15)	22.1	33	270.9	8.2	12.3	24 (41)	9 (40)	.36 (36)	1.5 (97)	32% (63)	36% (22)	.47 (24)	4% (8)	2 (80)

Georgia State's Power Ratings
Georgia State's Power Rating: -22.37 #124
Georgia State's Offense Rating: 14.80 #108
Georgia State's Defense Rating: 18.69 #126
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
Georgia State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Georgia State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.9 #123
Georgia State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #106
Georgia State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.4 #123

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Georgia State: -22.37 Texas State: 6.45

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Georgia State: -17.9 Texas State: 5.4

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 6.45 #52
Texas State's Offense Rating: 23.07 #38
Texas State's Defense Rating: 5.36 #29
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Texas State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Texas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.4 #48
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #20
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #82

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Georgia State Scoring
Offense: 19.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 18
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 45.3

Georgia State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Texas State 44
Georgia State 17

Projected Total Points: 61

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.3

Texas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/23	Texas State	44	Georgia State	52	Texas State -23	Georgia State	59.5	Over
2021	10/23	Georgia State	28	Texas State	16	Georgia State -10	Georgia State	58.5	Under
2019	09/21	Texas State	37	Georgia State	34	Texas State -3	Push	62.5	Over
2018	11/03	Georgia State	30	Texas State	40	Georgia State -7	Texas State	53.0	Over
2017	11/11	Texas State	30	Georgia State	33	Georgia State -5.5	Texas State	51.5	Over
2016	10/08	Georgia State	41	Texas State	21	Georgia State -8.5	Georgia State	58.0	Over
2015	11/14	Texas State	19	Georgia State	41	Texas State -5	Georgia State	64.0	Under
2014	11/29	Georgia State	31	Texas State	54	Texas State -11	Texas State	0
2013	10/19	Texas State	24	Georgia State	17	Texas State -19	Georgia State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas State	4	3	5 Overs
Georgia State	5	5	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 5	3 - 5	2 - 4	1 - 1
Road Teams	5 - 4	5 - 3	1 - 1	4 - 2

(#124) GAST at (#52) TXST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	GAST	TXST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#124	#52
SP+SP+	#123	#48
Perf GradeGrade	#120	#16
OffenseOff	#111	#10
DefenseDef	#120	#27
Spec TeamsST	#52	#43
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#74	#82

Georgia State Notes(11/25) Huge W vs Tex St, Off 500+ yds, Def 4 TOs
(11/18) Fight w/ Ark St, Rgame awful, QB great, R D awful
(11/3) Run Def mauled by UConn, Off 2 TOs cost bad
(10/17) QB Gibson OK, have some RB's (Brock/Dukes)
(10/17) Run D mauled by Marshall, 295 yds, 8 ypc
(10/13) Run Def mauled by Old D. Rgame ugly, a theme
(9/28) Run Def mauled by Ga South, Rgame 29 yds (1.9)
(9/14) Huge W over Vandy. 22 4th Q pts to steal W
(8/17) McGee hired v late (Feb 23), year 0 spot
(7/30) New HC McGee was RB/AHC at UGA for 8 years
(7/30) Complete roster TO: 32 in/ 36 out in Portal
(7/30) QB battle Gibson (Akron/GT) or Veilleux (Pitt)
Georgia State Injury Report

Texas State Notes(11/29) How the fuck did this offense fail so much in 24?
(11/29) Off torched S Al, 530 yds, Def forced 3 TOs
(11/25) Awful L vs Ga St, Def torched 500+, Off 4 TOs
(11/18) 2 str W's, killed SoMiss, McCloud/Rgame great
(11/3) 2 awful L's, season slipping, McCloud replaced?
(10/20) Off/McCloud awful in bad L (ODU), 2 TOs, woof
(10/12) Off 600 yds (271 rush) killing Ark St. Def OK
(10/4) Great Pass Off, run enough. TO's an issue, fun team
(9/12) Spread Off fun. McCloud looks great w/ weapons
(9/8) Dog fight W over Lamar? 2 TOs, 156 penalty yds!
(9/8) Torched UTSA, McCould good, Run D great
(7/30) OL has 3/5 back. RB Mahdi great/depth. WR v good.
Texas State Injury Report

Georgia State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	GAST Off	TXST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#111	#27
SuccessSuc	#72	#45
ExplosiveExp	#41	#126
PPAPPA	#68	#64
PowerPwr	#108	#29
SP+SP+	#106	#82
Pts POPPO	#65	#59
HavocHav	#59	#17

Georgia State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	GAST Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	#53	#15
Run SuccessRSuc	#105	#37
Run ExplRExp	#7	#127
PPAExp	#74	#56
Run BlockR Blk	#125	-
OL YdsOLY	#112	#28
Stuff RateStuff	#77	#21
TackleTak	-	#66

Georgia State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	GAST Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	#96	#95
Pass SuccessPSuc	#41	#77
Pass ExplPExl	#91	#109
PPAExp	#61	#66
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#106	#8
F7 HavocF7	#89	#6
DB HavocDB	#14	#117

Texas State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	GAST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#10	#120
SuccessSuc	#20	#68
ExplosiveExp	#50	#109
PPAPPA	#23	#94
PowerPwr	#38	#126
SP+SP+	#20	#123
Pts POPPO	#19	#83
HavocHav	#48	#105

Texas State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	GAST Def
Run GameRun	#44	#120
Run SuccessRSuc	#36	#43
Run ExplRExp	#15	#95
PPAExp	#21	#72
Run BlockR Blk	#27	-
OL YdsOLY	#53	#56
Stuff RateStuff	#59	#36
TackleTak	-	#34

Texas State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	GAST Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#122
Pass SuccessPSuc	#15	#111
Pass ExplPExl	#97	#76
PPAExp	#36	#113
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#8	#90
F7 HavocF7	#84	#63
DB HavocDB	#8	#122

Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

GAST 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
Texas State -23.0 (59.5)
Georgia State won at Texas State this year (52-44)

Previous Matchups
Georgia State beat Texas State in 2024 (52-44)

GAST's OC Jim Chaney (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Christian Veilleux (Tr)	166	291	57%	2047	13	11	7.0
Zach Gibson (Tr)	102	151	68%	1004	7	2	6.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Freddie Brock	151	819	8	5.4	57
Michel Dukes	63	365	2	5.8	35
Sy'veon Wilkerson (Tr)	23	97	0	4.2	41
Christian Veilleux (Tr)	28	74	1	2.6	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ted Hurst (Tr)	56	961	9	17.2	76
Dorian Fleming	49	558	6	11.4	58
Michel Dukes	43	354	3	8.2	26
Petey Tucker	30	324	0	10.8	29

View Georgia State's Full Roster

GAST's DC Kevin Sherrer (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jeremiah Johnson	69	1	0	1	6
Josiah Robinson	62	7	4	2	3
Xavier Robinson (Tr)	60	5	2	1	0
Jyron Gilmore (Tr)	54	2	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kevin Swint	48	10	5	1	4
Henry Bryant	30	6	4	2	1
Josiah Robinson	62	7	4	2	3
Xavier Robinson (Tr)	60	5	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Gavin Pringle	34	2	0	8
Jeremiah Johnson	69	1	1	6
Izaiah Guy	30	0	0	5

TXST's OC Mack Leftwich (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jordan McCloud (Tr)	272	389	70%	3222	30	13	8.3
RJ Martinez (Tr)	18	24	75%	148	0	1	6.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ismail Mahdi	183	991	4	5.4	45
Lincoln Pare	94	547	8	5.8	73
Torrance Burgess Jr. (Tr)	60	367	2	6.1	57
Jordan McCloud (Tr)	74	278	7	3.8	42

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaden Williams (Tr)	57	807	7	14.2	70
Joey Hobert	70	680	8	9.7	40
Kole Wilson	43	630	4	14.7	53
Chris Dawn Jr.	37	418	6	11.3	60

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Dexter McCoil (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Polk (Tr)	68	6	2	5	2
Ryan Nolan	52	1	0	0	1
James Neal (Tr)	50	2	0	1	1
Max Harris (Tr)	44	3	1	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kalil Alexander	40	11	6	5	2
Steven Parker (Tr)	29	9	5	1	1
Jo'Laison Landry	33	8	5	4	0
Ben Bell	13	6	3	6	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chris Mills	33	3	1	0	7
Bobby Crosby	18	1	0	0	5
Joshua Eaton	24	2	1	1	5