UCF at Arizona State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 9th 2024 (7:00 PM EST)
Arizona State -2.5 (55.5) (-140) Open: -4.0 | 56.5
Arizona State 35 - UCF: 31 (Big 12)

Knights (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Gus Malzahn (24 - 16)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (13 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UCF is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Arizona State -13.5 (SP+ ASU -7)
Projected Score: UCF: 19 - ASU: 33 (52)
ASU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
UCF Travel: 1844 miles, 2 hrs ahead

Sun Devils (11 - 3) (12 - 2 - 0)
Coach Kenny Dillingham (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (25 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UCF Players
ASU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UCF's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	UCF vs New Hampshire	-38.5	58.5	W 57 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/7	UCF vs Sam Houston	-21.5	53.5	W 45 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/14	UCF at TCU	+1.5	61.5	W 35 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	UCF vs Colorado	-12.5	60.5	L 21 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/5	UCF at Florida	-1.0	62.0	L 13 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/12	UCF vs Cincinnati	-2.0	58.0	L 13 - 19	U	N
Sat 10/19	UCF at Iowa State	+13.0	49.5	L 35 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/26	UCF vs BYU	-2.5	53.5	L 24 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/2	UCF vs Arizona	-6.5	55.0	W 56 - 12	O	Y
Sat 11/9	UCF at Arizona State	+2.5	55.5	L 31 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	UCF at West Virginia	-3.0	60.0	L 21 - 31	U	N
Fri 11/29	UCF vs Utah	-9.5	45.5	L 14 - 28	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UCF's Schedule

Arizona State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Arizona State vs Wyoming	-6.5	47.0	W 48 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Arizona State vs Mississippi State	-6.5	57.5	W 30 - 23	U	Y
Thu 9/12	Arizona State at Texas State	+2.5	58.5	W 31 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Arizona State at Texas Tech	+4.5	58.5	L 22 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Arizona State vs Kansas	-2.5	50.0	W 35 - 31	O	Y
Fri 10/11	Arizona State vs Utah	+6.0	46.5	W 27 - 19	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Arizona State at Cincinnati	+5.5	51.0	L 14 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Arizona State at Oklahoma State	-5.0	57.0	W 42 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Arizona State vs UCF	-2.5	55.5	W 35 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Arizona State at Kansas State	+7.5	51.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Arizona State vs BYU	-3.5	49.0	W 28 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Arizona State at Arizona	-7.5	52.5	W 49 - 7	O	Y
Sat 12/7	Arizona State vs Iowa State	+1.5	51.5	W 45 - 19	O	Y
Wed 1/1	Arizona State vs Texas	+13.5	52.5	L 31 - 39	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCF	#16 (.31)	45% (41)	24.3	47% (27)	3.28 (36)	228	43% (57)	259	3.76 (80)	#58 (.16)	47% (125)	23.6	51% (128)	43% (80)	3.79 (69)	50.1	1.4	1.2
ASU	#110 (.12)	38% (112)	25.8	44% (57)	3.14 (62)	111	34% (123)	210	3.28 (108)	#112 (.25)	47% (123)	24.5	47% (105)	47% (125)	3.99 (86)	51.8	1.7	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ASU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCF Offense	13	24.3	12.8	44.9%	3.76	1.4	23	487	228	259	5.6	56%	43%	47%	43%	15%	.31
ASU Defense	12	24.5	21.4	46.5%	3.99	1	-	-	-	-	-	42%	58%	47%	47%	16%	.25

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCF Defense	13	23.6	34.6	46.6%	3.79	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	51%	43%	12%	.16
ASU Offense	12	25.8	24.7	37.7%	3.28	1.7	19	322	111	210	3.6	43%	56%	44%	34%	18%	.12

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UCF	13	28:52	23.1	49%	57%	6.1	50.1	1.4	1.2	4.2	1.7	0	26.6
Arizona State	12	30:16	18.8	31%	47%	5.8	51.8	1.7	1	5.4	2.2	0	25.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCF Offense	13	56% (24)	47% (27)	40.7	228.2	5.6	28 (25)	.24 (19)	3.28 (36)	71% (93)	9% (48)	1.14 (10)
ASU Defense	12	42% (5)	47% (105)	-	-	-	-	.2 (104)	3.53 (130)	72% (63)	10% (60)	0.99 (65)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCF Defense	13	56% (121)	51% (128)	-	-	-	-	.23 (110)	3.39 (117)	81% (111)	7% (127)	0.99 (62)
ASU Offense	12	43% (113)	44% (57)	31.2	111.2	3.6	17 (81)	.2 (42)	3.14 (62)	67% (107)	10% (73)	0.99 (71)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCF Offense	13	43% (111)	43% (57)	17.6	28.2	258.8	9.2	14.7	24 (41)	11 (68)	.48 (12)	1.9 (5)	30% (30)	37% (15)	.52 (17)	6% (51)	2.2 (27)
ASU Defense	12	58% (129)	47% (125)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (126)	.3 (91)	1.4 (6)	30% (110)	33% (105)	.41 (109)	6% (67)	1.9 (21)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCF Defense	13	43% (11)	43% (80)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.17 (17)	1.4 (4)	29% (120)	34% (113)	.23 (33)	5% (120)	1.7 (1)
ASU Offense	12	56% (23)	34% (123)	20.3	36.7	210.3	5.7	10.4	8 (128)	14 (107)	.1 (124)	1.5 (95)	34% (111)	25% (113)	.23 (102)	8% (120)	2.1 (41)

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 0.98 #58
UCF's Offense Rating: 20.19 #64
UCF's Defense Rating: 9.20 #67
2024 Talent Rating: 409.00 #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 12% #35
UCF's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
UCF's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #61
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #55
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #61

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 366.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
UCF: 0.98 Arizona State: 15.205

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCF: 2.8 Arizona State: 9.4

Arizona State's Power Ratings
Arizona State's Power Rating: 15.205 #12
Arizona State's Offense Rating: 28.03 #7
Arizona State's Defense Rating: 7.01 #43
2024 Talent Rating: 374.00 #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
Arizona State's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
Arizona State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.4 #35
Arizona State's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.4 #32
Arizona State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #26

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 366.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

UCF Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.8
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.6

UCF's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Arizona State 33
UCF 19

Projected Total Points: 52

Arizona State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.7
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.4

Arizona State's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 12 - 2 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 5
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/09	Arizona State	35	UCF	31	Arizona State -2.5	Arizona State	55.5	Over
2002	09/07	Arizona State	46	UCF	13

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arizona State	2	1	1 Overs
UCF	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#58) UCF at (#12) ASU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UCF	ASU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#58	#12
SP+SP+	#61	#35
Perf GradeGrade	#54	#76
OffenseOff	#52	#40
DefenseDef	#47	#98
Spec TeamsST	#117	#86
TalentTal	#32	#47
Blue ChipsBC%	#35	#53

UCF Notes(12/17) Hired Alex Grinch as DC? Why?
(12/7) Hired HC Scott Frost again (Rams analyst '24)
(12/2) HC Malzahn leaving for FSU OC job. Yikes
(11/23) Even w/ WVU, R Def faded, bad 3rd/4th cost
(11/13) WTF L to ASU, OG's them by 150, Off good
(11/13) ST's disaster vs ASU, blk punt TD, miss FG
(11/2) Found a QB, Rizk great vs Az, Rgame great TW
(10/28) DC Roof fired, co-dc Williams takes over
(10/21) QB J. Brown starter from ISU game forward
(10/14) Benched KJ for Jacurri Brown, was ok/mobile in L
(10/12) Even w/ Cincy, OG'd them but Rzone issues cost
(10/6) B2B L's (UF). Rgame shut down, Pass O/D awful
UCF Injury Report

Arizona State Injury Report

UCF on Offense

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	ASU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#52	#98
SuccessSuc	#41	#123
ExplosiveExp	#3	#30
PPAPPA	#16	#112
PowerPwr	#64	#43
SP+SP+	#55	#26
Pts POPPO	#80	#86
HavocHav	#47	#62

UCF Run Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	ASU Def
Run GameRun	#15	#81
Run SuccessRSuc	#27	#105
Run ExplRExp	#10	#65
PPAExp	#19	#104
Run BlockR Blk	#37	-
OL YdsOLY	#36	#130
Stuff RateStuff	#102	#129
TackleTak	-	#78

UCF Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	ASU Def
Pass GamePass	#118	#69
Pass SuccessPSuc	#57	#125
Pass ExplPExl	#5	#6
PPAExp	#12	#91
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#17	#134
F7 HavocF7	#48	#60
DB HavocDB	#51	#67

Arizona State on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	ASU Off	UCF Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#40	#47
SuccessSuc	#112	#125
ExplosiveExp	#90	#7
PPAPPA	#110	#58
PowerPwr	#7	#67
SP+SP+	#32	#61
Pts POPPO	#108	#69
HavocHav	#101	#128

Arizona State Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	ASU Off	UCF Def
Run GameRun	#7	#38
Run SuccessRSuc	#57	#128
Run ExplRExp	#71	#62
PPAExp	#42	#110
Run BlockR Blk	#96	-
OL YdsOLY	#62	#117
Stuff RateStuff	#18	#78
TackleTak	-	#55

Arizona State Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	ASU Off	UCF Def
Pass GamePass	#19	#67
Pass SuccessPSuc	#123	#80
Pass ExplPExl	#95	#4
PPAExp	#124	#17
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#20	#65
F7 HavocF7	#73	#127
DB HavocDB	#120	#120

Program Comparison
ASU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'24 Profile: Up to Average P4

UCF 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Sun Devil Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 11
Arizona State -2.5 (55.5)
Arizona State won vs UCF this year (35-31)

Previous Matchups
Arizona State beat UCF in 2024 (35-31)

UCF's OC Tim Harris Jr. (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dylan Rizk	73	118	62%	915	5	2	7.8
KJ Jefferson (Tr)	64	108	59%	1012	7	4	9.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
RJ Harvey	232	1577	22	6.8	80
Jacurri Brown (Tr)	53	401	4	7.6	67
Myles Montgomery (Tr)	51	293	3	5.7	25
Peny Boone (Tr)	34	208	2	6.1	59

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kobe Hudson	47	770	4	16.4	53
Randy Pittman	32	416	2	13.0	48
Jacoby Jones (Tr)	22	327	2	14.9	40
RJ Harvey	20	267	3	13.4	75

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Ted Roof (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ethan Barr	72	3	0	2	2
Xe'Ree Alexander (Tr)	68	6	0	3	2
Quadric Bullard	61	3	1	1	2
Deshawn Pace (Tr)	61	4	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nyjalik Kelly (Tr)	53	10	6	1	1
Malachi Lawrence	15	6	5	4	1
Daylan Dotson (Tr)	31	10	4	5	1
Ricky Barber	34	5	3	8	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Antoine Jackson	13	1	0	3
Braeden Marshall	22	3	0	3
Ethan Barr	72	3	2	2

ASU's OC Marcus Arroyo (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Sam Leavitt (Tr)	216	350	62%	2885	24	6	8.2
Jeff Sims (Tr)	13	25	52%	168	0	0	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cameron Skattebo	293	1715	21	5.9	53
Sam Leavitt (Tr)	110	443	5	4.0	40
Kyson Brown	73	351	2	4.8	38
DeCarlos Brooks	37	148	1	4.0	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordyn Tyson	75	1101	10	14.7	59
Cameron Skattebo	45	605	3	13.4	66
Xavier Guillory	22	339	5	15.4	61
Chamon Metayer (Tr)	32	306	5	9.6	29

View Arizona State's Full Roster

ASU's DC Brian Ward (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myles Rowser (Tr)	98	4	1	2	4
Xavion Alford	85	0	0	1	5
Caleb McCullough	76	8	1	1	1
Shamari Simmons	72	9	0	4	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elijah O'Neal	28	5	4	5	5
Jacob Kongaika (Tr)	10	5	3	1	0
Prince Dorbah	12	4	3	3	1
Clayton Smith	33	6	3	12	4

Pass D	Tack	PRESS	PD
Keith Abney	52	1	9
Laterrance Welch (Tr)	19	1	7
Xavion Alford	85	1	5