South Alabama at Troy - 2023 Matchup Preview

Thursday, November 2nd 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Troy -5.5 (44.5) (-250) Open: -3.0
Troy 28 - South Alabama: 10 (Sun Belt)

Jaguars (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Kane Wommack (17 - 11)
Avg Score : 27 - 30 (25 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.3 - 3.7 (#21)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Troy -7 (SP+ TROY -7)
Projected Score: USA: 21 - TROY: 28 (49)
TROY Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
USA Travel: 145 miles

Trojans (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jon Sumrall (13 - 4)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (25 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 4 (#13)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USA Players
TROY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

South Alabama's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	South Alabama at Tulane	+6.0	51.0	L 17 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/9	South Alabama vs SE Louisiana	-24.0	59.5	W 35 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/16	South Alabama at Oklahoma State	+7.0	49.5	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/23	South Alabama vs Central Michigan	-16.5	46.5	L 30 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/30	South Alabama at James Madison	+1.0	48.5	L 23 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/7	South Alabama at UL Monroe	-11.0	51.5	W 55 - 7	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/17	South Alabama vs Southern Miss	-18.5	51.0	W 55 - 3	O	Y
Sat 10/28	South Alabama vs Louisiana	-11.5	55.0	L 20 - 33	U	N
Thu 11/2	South Alabama at Troy	+5.5	44.5	L 10 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/11	South Alabama vs Arkansas State	-14.5	54.5	W 21 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/18	South Alabama vs Marshall	-10.5	44.5	W 28 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/25	South Alabama at Texas State	-6.5	57.0	L 44 - 52	O	N
Sat 12/23	South Alabama at Eastern Michigan	-18.0	43.0	W 59 - 10	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for South Alabama's Schedule

Troy's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Troy vs Stephen F. Austin	-26.0	48.0	W 48 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/9	Troy at Kansas State	+15.0	50.0	L 13 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/16	Troy vs James Madison	-2.5	46.5	L 14 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/23	Troy vs Western Kentucky	-3.5	57.0	W 27 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/30	Troy at Georgia State	+1.0	50.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Troy vs Arkansas State	-15.5	52.0	W 37 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Troy at Army	-6.5	41.5	W 19 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Troy at Texas State	-6.5	53.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Thu 11/2	Troy vs South Alabama	-5.5	44.5	W 28 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Troy at UL Monroe	-23.5	47.5	W 45 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Troy vs Louisiana	-17.5	47.5	W 31 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/25	Troy at Southern Miss	-16.5	48.5	W 35 - 17	O	Y
Sat 12/2	Troy vs App State	-6.5	51.5	W 49 - 23	O	Y
Sat 12/23	Troy vs Duke	-7.0	44.0	L 10 - 17	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USA	.22	42%	26.5	40%	3.06	155	45%	269	4.14	.11	38%	30.4	40%	37%	3.16	70.4	1.2	1.8
TROY	.15	40%	23.5	40%	2.93	116	41%	243	3.45	.08	40%	23.9	42%	38%	3.04	49.9	1.5	2.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TROY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USA Offense	13	26.5	25.2	42%	4.14	1.2	22	424	155	269	4	51%	48%	40%	45%	13%	.22
TROY Defense	14	23.9	22.8	39.7%	3.04	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	42%	38%	16%	.08

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USA Defense	13	30.4	32	37.7%	3.16	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	41%	58%	40%	37%	17%	.11
TROY Offense	14	23.5	25.3	39.7%	3.45	1.5	20	359	116	243	3.3	49%	49%	40%	41%	16%	.15

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
South Alabama	13	32:42	22.2	43%	59%	7.7	70.4	1.2	1.8	6.2	2.2	3	29.6
Troy	14	30:25	19.5	32%	67%	5.4	49.9	1.5	2.1	5.6	2.9	1	29.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USA Offense	13	51%	40%	38.8	155.3	4	19	.16	3.06	78%	7%	1.02
TROY Defense	14	47%	42%	-	-	-	-	.08	3.09	72%	10%	0.89

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USA Defense	13	41%	40%	-	-	-	-	.07	2.98	78%	11%	0.87
TROY Offense	14	49%	40%	35.5	116.1	3.3	21	.07	2.93	73%	11%	0.93

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USA Offense	13	48%	45%	22.4	34.4	268.9	7.8	12	28	12	.33	1.6	31%	30%	.3	5%	2
TROY Defense	14	53%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.1	1.4	32%	26%	.16	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USA Defense	13	58%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.18	1.6	36%	22%	.14	6%	2
TROY Offense	14	49%	41%	17.9	28.6	242.6	8.5	13.5	20	15	.29	1.7	31%	29%	.2	5%	1.9

South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: 3.95 #41
South Alabama's Offense Rating: 19.51 #39
South Alabama's Defense Rating: 6.19 #32
2023 Talent Rating: 545.68 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
South Alabama's 2023 Expected Record: 9.30 - 3.70
South Alabama's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.0 #55
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #50
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.8 #68

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 437.55
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: 3.95 Troy: 10.24

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: 3.0 Troy: 10.4

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: 10.24 #35
Troy's Offense Rating: 16.62 #64
Troy's Defense Rating: 1.67 #14
2023 Talent Rating: 454.06 #101
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Troy's 2023 Expected Record: 10.00 - 4.00
Troy's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #26
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #34
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 437.55
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 26.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32

South Alabama's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Troy 28
South Alabama 21

Projected Total Points: 49

Troy Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.3
Defense: 23.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.8

Troy's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	Troy	31	South Alabama	24	South Alabama -2.5	Troy	46.5	Over
2024	10/15	South Alabama	25	Troy	9	South Alabama -10	South Alabama	53.0	Under
2023	11/02	Troy	28	South Alabama	10	Troy -5.5	Troy	44.5	Under
2022	10/20	South Alabama	6	Troy	10	South Alabama -3	Troy	47.0	Under
2021	11/06	Troy	31	South Alabama	24	Troy -3.5	Troy	47.5	Over
2020	12/05	South Alabama	0	Troy	29	Troy -4.5	Troy	53.5	Under
2019	10/16	Troy	37	South Alabama	13	Troy -17.5	Troy	55.5	Under
2018	10/23	South Alabama	17	Troy	38	Troy -11	Troy	52.5	Over
2017	10/11	Troy	8	South Alabama	19	Troy -18	South Alabama	51.5	Under
2016	10/20	South Alabama	21	Troy	28	Troy -9	South Alabama	49.0	Push
2015	10/03	Troy	18	South Alabama	24	Troy -3	South Alabama	61.5	Under
2014	10/24	South Alabama	27	Troy	13	South Alabama -12	South Alabama	0
2013	10/05	Troy	34	South Alabama	33	Troy -2.5	South Alabama	0
2012	09/29	South Alabama	10	Troy	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Troy	10	7	3 Overs
South Alabama	4	6	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 7	7 - 6	5 - 4	2 - 2
Road Teams	7 - 7	6 - 7	2 - 2	4 - 5

(#41) USA at (#35) TROY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USA	TROY
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#41	#35
SP+SP+	#55	#26
Perf GradeGrade	#34	#13
OffenseOff	#39	#25
DefenseDef	#30	#9
Spec TeamsST	#86	#72
TalentTal	#81	#101
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

South Alabama Injury Report

Troy Injury Report

South Alabama on Offense


CategoryCat	USA Off	TROY Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#39	#9
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#39	#14
SP+SP+	#50	#26
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

South Alabama Run Game


CategoryCat	USA Off	TROY Def
Run GameRun	#5	#4
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#58	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#26

South Alabama Pass Game


CategoryCat	USA Off	TROY Def
Pass GamePass	#83	#21
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#110	#15
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Troy on Offense


CategoryCat	TROY Off	USA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#25	#30
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#64	#32
SP+SP+	#34	#68
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Troy Run Game


CategoryCat	TROY Off	USA Def
Run GameRun	#8	#25
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#117	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#108

Troy Pass Game


CategoryCat	TROY Off	USA Def
Pass GamePass	#13	#65
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#84	#69
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
TROY 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Up to Average P4

USA 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'23 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Veterans Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 10
Troy -5.5 (44.5)
Troy won vs South Alabama this year (28-10)

Previous Matchups
Troy beat South Alabama last year (31-24)
South Alabama beat Troy in 2024 (25-9)
Troy beat South Alabama in 2023 (28-10)

USA's OC Major Applewhite (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Carter Bradley	221	326	68%	2660	19	7	8.2
Giovanni Lopez	41	61	67%	475	4	2	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
La'Damian Webb	186	1007	16	5.4	65
Kentrel Bullock (Tr)	83	448	4	5.4	34
Braylon McReynolds	46	232	0	5.0	35
Marco Lee	53	220	2	4.2	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caullin Lacy	91	1316	7	14.5	84
Jamaal Pritchett	57	883	8	15.5	51
Damarcus Thomas	27	235	5	8.7	33
Javon Ivory (Tr)	20	234	1	11.7	39

View South Alabama's Full Roster

USA's DC Corey Batoon (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Quentin Wilfawn	83	16	6	5	1
Trey Kiser	67	10	4	1	2
James Miller	67	4	0	1	0
Jaden Voisin	66	2	0	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Quentin Wilfawn	83	16	6	5	1
Trey Kiser	67	10	4	1	2
Jamie Sheriff	45	9	3	12	0
Brock Higdon	18	4	3	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Rickey Fletcher	38	1	0	1	11
Jaden Voisin	66	2	0	0	6
Yamarus Banks	45	6	1	3	3

TROY's OC Joe Craddock (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Gunnar Watson	267	438	61%	3557	27	6	8.1
Will Crowder (Tr)	9	13	69%	94	1	0	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kimani Vidal	296	1662	14	5.6	69
Damien Taylor	67	346	1	5.2	45
Asa Martin (Tr)	25	114	0	4.6	16
Jarris Williams	14	69	1	4.9	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jabre Barber	74	994	5	13.4	52
Chris Lewis (Tr)	32	734	10	22.9	64
Deshon Stoudemire	43	563	1	13.1	51
Devonte Ross	40	428	3	10.7	38

View Troy's Full Roster

TROY's DC Greg Gasparato (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayden McDonald	75	10	2	2	1
Dell Pettus	73	4	1	0	4
Jordan Stringer	68	5	1	3	0
Irshaad Davis	66	2	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Javon Solomon	54	17	16	5	0
Richard Jibunor	59	19	11	4	0
T.J. Jackson	27	8	4	2	2
Malaki Pegues	9	3	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Reddy Steward	50	4	1	10
Don Callis	26	1	1	4
Irshaad Davis	66	2	0	4