Troy at Georgia State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 30th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Georgia State -1 (50.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Troy 28 - Georgia State: 7 (Sun Belt)

Trojans (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jon Sumrall (13 - 4)
Avg Score : 30 - 17 (29 - 16 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 4 (#13)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

GAST is playing their 5th straight game
TROY is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Troy -13.5 (SP+ TROY -20)
Projected Score: TROY: 32 - GAST: 19 (51)
GAST Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
TROY Travel: 162 miles, 1 hrs behind

Panthers (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Shawn Elliott (37 - 38)
Avg Score : 27 - 30 (26 - 31 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 7.3 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TROY Players
GAST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Troy's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Troy vs Stephen F. Austin	-26.0	48.0	W 48 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/9	Troy at Kansas State	+15.0	50.0	L 13 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/16	Troy vs James Madison	-2.5	46.5	L 14 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/23	Troy vs Western Kentucky	-3.5	57.0	W 27 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/30	Troy at Georgia State	+1.0	50.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Troy vs Arkansas State	-15.5	52.0	W 37 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Troy at Army	-6.5	41.5	W 19 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Troy at Texas State	-6.5	53.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Thu 11/2	Troy vs South Alabama	-5.5	44.5	W 28 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Troy at UL Monroe	-23.5	47.5	W 45 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Troy vs Louisiana	-17.5	47.5	W 31 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/25	Troy at Southern Miss	-16.5	48.5	W 35 - 17	O	Y
Sat 12/2	Troy vs App State	-6.5	51.5	W 49 - 23	O	Y
Sat 12/23	Troy vs Duke	-7.0	44.0	L 10 - 17	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Troy's Schedule

Georgia State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	Georgia State vs Rhode Island	-18.0	61.5	W 42 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/9	Georgia State vs UConn	-3.0	54.5	W 35 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Georgia State at Charlotte	-6.5	52.0	W 41 - 25	O	Y
Thu 9/21	Georgia State at Coastal Carolina	+4.5	62.5	W 30 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Georgia State vs Troy	-1.0	50.5	L 7 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Georgia State vs Marshall	-2.0	53.5	W 41 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Georgia State at Louisiana	+3.0	62.0	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Thu 10/26	Georgia State at Georgia Southern	-1.0	63.0	L 27 - 44	O	N
Sat 11/4	Georgia State vs James Madison	+6.0	53.0	L 14 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/11	Georgia State vs App State	-2.5	62.5	L 14 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/18	Georgia State at LSU	+32.5	73.5	L 14 - 56	U	N
Sat 11/25	Georgia State at Old Dominion	+2.0	49.5	L 24 - 25	U	Y
Sat 12/23	Georgia State vs Utah State	+2.0	58.0	W 45 - 22	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TROY	#56 (.21)	41% (78)	29.6	42% (79)	3.12 (66)	154	41% (79)	265	3.78 (78)	#4 (.03)	38% (27)	17.1	37% (22)	40% (43)	2.96 (10)	46.4	1.3	1.6
GAST	#68 (.19)	42% (72)	27.2	40% (105)	2.84 (112)	188	44% (41)	206	3.92 (65)	#94 (.22)	42% (68)	30.1	40% (43)	45% (111)	3.95 (83)	57.5	1.2	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TROY	#50 (.22)	44% (49)		42% (94)	2.88 (95)	157	48% (15)	213	4.43 (22)	#77 (.18)	43% (87)		45% (87)	42% (76)	3.77 (65)	58.8	1.3	0.7
GAST	#92 (.15)	41% (90)		42% (92)	2.94 (86)	134	41% (79)	256	3.85 (76)	#121 (.28)	48% (123)		49% (119)	46% (118)	4.42 (120)	49.1	1.6	1.4

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TROY Offense	14	29.6	28.5	41.4%	3.78	1.3	21	419	154	265	4.4	48%	51%	42%	41%	15%	.21
GAST Defense	13	30.1	30.8	42.1%	3.95	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	40%	45%	15%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TROY Defense	14	17.1	15.5	38.1%	2.96	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	37%	40%	18%	.03
GAST Offense	13	27.2	25.5	41.6%	3.92	1.2	20	394	188	206	4.8	55%	44%	40%	44%	15%	.19

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Troy	14	30:59	21.1	41%	45%	5.1	46.4	1.3	1.6	6.9	3.1	1	30.9
Georgia State	13	29:26	19.5	46%	47%	6.4	57.5	1.2	1.3	5.5	2	2	29.1

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TROY Offense	14	48% (85)	42% (79)	34.6	153.9	4.4	19 (69)	.15 (75)	3.12 (66)	72% (88)	10% (62)	1.03 (50)
GAST Defense	13	47% (25)	40% (43)	-	-	-	-	.15 (72)	3.05 (56)	63% (19)	10% (63)	1.06 (95)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TROY Defense	14	47% (29)	37% (22)	-	-	-	-	-.03 (10)	2.75 (18)	60% (9)	13% (9)	0.97 (48)
GAST Offense	13	55% (29)	40% (105)	39.3	188.1	4.8	25 (37)	.15 (74)	2.84 (112)	78% (30)	11% (89)	1.16 (7)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TROY Offense	14	51% (45)	41% (79)	19.9	32.6	265.1	8.1	13.3	29 (18)	6 (14)	.29 (66)	1.7 (41)	33% (85)	29% (80)	.3 (78)	6% (60)	2.2 (31)
GAST Defense	13	52% (106)	45% (111)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.37 (113)	1.6 (76)	33% (55)	31% (89)	.42 (114)	4% (122)	2.2 (106)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TROY Defense	14	52% (105)	40% (43)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.12 (11)	1.4 (12)	34% (36)	28% (41)	.2 (16)	5% (105)	1.9 (28)
GAST Offense	13	44% (104)	44% (41)	19.2	28.2	205.5	7.3	10.7	20 (70)	7 (21)	.31 (61)	1.5 (91)	31% (45)	33% (47)	.37 (58)	4% (14)	2.1 (38)

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: 5.08 #35
Troy's Offense Rating: 16.62 #64
Troy's Defense Rating: 1.67 #14
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Troy's 2023 Expected Record: 10.00 - 4.00
Troy's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #26
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #34
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Troy: 5.08 Georgia State: -5.745

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Troy: 10.4 Georgia State: -9.4

Georgia State's Power Ratings
Georgia State's Power Rating: -5.745 #99
Georgia State's Offense Rating: 15.65 #76
Georgia State's Defense Rating: 11.67 #96
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Georgia State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30
Georgia State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.4 #100
Georgia State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #71
Georgia State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #109

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Troy Scoring
Offense: 29.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.5
Defense: 17.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 15.5

Troy's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Troy 32
Georgia State 19

Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
Georgia State 35
Troy 16

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
Troy 30
Georgia State 21

Total Points: 51

Georgia State Scoring
Offense: 27.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.5
Defense: 30.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 30.8

Georgia State's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	Troy	31	Georgia State	19	Troy -9.5	Troy	51.0	Under
2023	09/30	Georgia State	7	Troy	28	Georgia State -1	Troy	50.5	Under
2021	11/27	Georgia State	37	Troy	10	Georgia State -6.5	Georgia State	49.5	Under
2020	10/24	Troy	34	Georgia State	36	Troy -1.5	Georgia State	68.5	Over
2019	10/26	Georgia State	52	Troy	33	Troy -1	Georgia State	67.0	Over
2018	10/04	Troy	37	Georgia State	20	Troy -17	Push	55.5	Over
2017	10/21	Georgia State	10	Troy	34	Troy -7	Troy	51.5	Under
2016	10/15	Troy	31	Georgia State	21	Troy -16.5	Georgia State	54.0	Under
2015	11/27	Georgia State	31	Troy	21	Georgia State -1	Georgia State	56.0	Under
2014	11/08	Troy	45	Georgia State	21	Troy -8.5	Troy	0
2013	10/12	Georgia State	28	Troy	35	Troy -16	Georgia State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Georgia State	4	6	3 Overs
Troy	7	4	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 4	6 - 4	4 - 3	2 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 7	4 - 6	1 - 2	3 - 4

(#35) TROY at (#99) GAST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TROY	GAST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#35	#99
SP+SP+	#26	#100
Perf GradeGrade	#13	#112
OffenseOff	#25	#89
DefenseDef	#9	#118
Spec TeamsST	#72	#99
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Troy Injury Report

Georgia State Injury Report

Troy on Offense


CategoryCat	TROY Off	GAST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#25	#118
SuccessSuc	#78	#68
ExplosiveExp	#33	#109
PPAPPA	#56	#94
PowerPwr	#64	#96
SP+SP+	#34	#109
Pts POPPO	#78	#83
HavocHav	#63	#105

Troy Run Game


CategoryCat	TROY Off	GAST Def
Run GameRun	#8	#50
Run SuccessRSuc	#79	#43
Run ExplRExp	#50	#95
PPAExp	#75	#72
Run BlockR Blk	#117	-
OL YdsOLY	#66	#56
Stuff RateStuff	#89	#36
TackleTak	-	#91

Troy Pass Game


CategoryCat	TROY Off	GAST Def
Pass GamePass	#13	#136
Pass SuccessPSuc	#79	#111
Pass ExplPExl	#41	#76
PPAExp	#66	#113
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#84	#83
F7 HavocF7	#62	#63
DB HavocDB	#60	#122

Georgia State on Offense


CategoryCat	GAST Off	TROY Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#89	#9
SuccessSuc	#72	#27
ExplosiveExp	#41	#28
PPAPPA	#68	#4
PowerPwr	#76	#14
SP+SP+	#71	#26
Pts POPPO	#65	#10
HavocHav	#59	#25

Georgia State Run Game


CategoryCat	GAST Off	TROY Def
Run GameRun	#91	#4
Run SuccessRSuc	#105	#22
Run ExplRExp	#7	#48
PPAExp	#74	#10
Run BlockR Blk	#98	-
OL YdsOLY	#112	#18
Stuff RateStuff	#77	#15
TackleTak	-	#26

Georgia State Pass Game


CategoryCat	GAST Off	TROY Def
Pass GamePass	#70	#21
Pass SuccessPSuc	#41	#43
Pass ExplPExl	#91	#12
PPAExp	#61	#11
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#15	#15
F7 HavocF7	#89	#9
DB HavocDB	#14	#105

Program Comparison
GAST 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'23 Profile: Remains Average G5

TROY 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Georgia State Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 75°

Rematch from Week 5
Georgia State -1.0 (50.5)
Troy won at Georgia State this year (28-7)

Previous Matchups
Troy beat Georgia State in 2023 (28-7)

TROY's OC Joe Craddock (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Gunnar Watson	267	438	61%	3557	27	6	8.1
Will Crowder (Tr)	9	13	69%	94	1	0	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kimani Vidal	296	1662	14	5.6	69
Damien Taylor	67	346	1	5.2	45
Asa Martin (Tr)	25	114	0	4.6	16
Jarris Williams	14	69	1	4.9	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jabre Barber	74	994	5	13.4	52
Chris Lewis (Tr)	32	734	10	22.9	64
Deshon Stoudemire	43	563	1	13.1	51
Devonte Ross	40	428	3	10.7	38

View Troy's Full Roster

TROY's DC Greg Gasparato (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayden McDonald	75	10	2	2	1
Dell Pettus	73	4	1	0	4
Jordan Stringer	68	5	1	3	0
Irshaad Davis	66	2	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Javon Solomon	54	17	16	5	0
Richard Jibunor	59	19	11	4	0
T.J. Jackson	27	8	4	2	2
Malaki Pegues	9	3	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Reddy Steward	50	4	1	10
Don Callis	26	1	1	4
Irshaad Davis	66	2	0	4

GAST's OC Trent McKnight (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Darren Grainger	244	358	68%	2625	20	7	7.3
Mikele Colasurdo	5	8	63%	47	0	0	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marcus Carroll	274	1350	13	4.9	63
Darren Grainger	159	736	10	4.6	65
Freddie Brock (Tr)	30	307	1	10.2	60
KZ Adams	35	61	0	1.7	6

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Robert Lewis	70	881	7	12.6	97
Tailique Williams	49	615	6	12.6	78
Jacari Carter (Tr)	38	276	0	7.3	32
Cadarrius Thompson	25	266	3	10.6	37

View Georgia State's Full Roster

GAST's DC Chad Staggs (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jontrey Hunter	94	7	2	2	4
Justin Abraham	82	8	4	1	2
Jeremiah Johnson	76	5	1	0	0
TyGee Leach (Tr)	70	7	0	1	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Javon Denis	31	7	5	6	0
Kevin Swint (Tr)	32	8	4	3	0
Justin Abraham	82	8	4	1	2
Henry Bryant (Tr)	36	6	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryquice Brown	34	1	0	1	6
TyGee Leach (Tr)	70	7	0	1	6
Jontrey Hunter	94	7	2	2	4