Troy at Southern Miss - 2023 Matchup Preview
Troy logo Troy Trojans at Southern Miss Golden EaglesSouthern Miss logo
Saturday, November 25th 2023 (12:00 PM EST)
Troy -16.5 (48.5) (-850)  Open: -16.5 | 48.0
Troy 35 - Southern Miss: 17  (Sun Belt)

 
Trojans (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jon Sumrall (13 - 4)
Avg Score : 30 - 17 (29 - 16 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 4 (#13)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
USM is playing their 6th straight game
TROY is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Troy -18   (SP+ TROY -25.5)

Projected Score: TROY: 33 - USM: 15 (49)
TROY Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
TROY Travel: 202 miles
Golden Eagles (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Will Hall (11 - 17)
Avg Score : 23 - 36 (22 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Troy's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Troy vs Stephen F. Austin-26.048.0W 48 - 30ON
Sat 9/9 Troy at Kansas State+15.050.0L 13 - 42ON
Sat 9/16 Troy vs James Madison-2.546.5L 14 - 16UN
Sat 9/23 Troy vs Western Kentucky-3.557.0W 27 - 24UN
Sat 9/30 Troy at Georgia State+1.050.5W 28 - 7UY
Sat 10/7 Troy vs Arkansas State-15.552.0W 37 - 3UY
Sat 10/14 Troy at Army-6.541.5W 19 - 0UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Troy at Texas State-6.553.0W 31 - 13UY
Thu 11/2 Troy vs South Alabama-5.544.5W 28 - 10UY
Sat 11/11 Troy at UL Monroe-23.547.5W 45 - 14OY
Sat 11/18 Troy vs Louisiana-17.547.5W 31 - 24ON
Sat 11/25 Troy at Southern Miss-16.548.5W 35 - 17OY
Sat 12/2 Troy vs App State-6.551.5W 49 - 23OY
Sat 12/23 Troy vs Duke-7.044.0L 10 - 17UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Troy's Schedule
Southern Miss's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Southern Miss vs Alcorn State-24.047.5W 40 - 14OY
Sat 9/9 Southern Miss at Florida State+31.054.0L 13 - 66ON
Sat 9/16 Southern Miss vs Tulane+8.047.5L 3 - 21UN
Sat 9/23 Southern Miss at Arkansas State-7.046.5L 37 - 44ON
Sat 9/30 Southern Miss vs Texas State+6.560.0L 36 - 50ON
Sat 10/7 Southern Miss vs Old Dominion-3.056.5L 13 - 17UN
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/17 Southern Miss at South Alabama+18.551.0L 3 - 55ON
Sat 10/28 Southern Miss at App State+16.055.5L 38 - 48OY
Sat 11/4 Southern Miss vs UL Monroe-3.056.0W 24 - 7UY
Thu 11/9 Southern Miss at Louisiana+8.551.5W 34 - 31OY
Sat 11/18 Southern Miss at Mississippi State+18.547.5L 20 - 41ON
Sat 11/25 Southern Miss vs Troy+16.548.5L 17 - 35ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Southern Miss's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TROY#56 (.21)41% (78)29.642% (79)3.12 (66)15441% (79)2653.78 (78)#4 (.03)38% (27)17.137% (22)40% (43)2.96 (10)46.41.31.6
USM#109 (.12)37% (121)23.240% (106)2.89 (107)16334% (126)1913.07 (121)#105 (.24)42% (69)35.841% (49)45% (109)4.15 (103)48.21.31.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TROY#50 (.22)44% (49)42% (94)2.88 (95)15748% (15)2134.43 (22)#77 (.18)43% (87)45% (87)42% (76)3.77 (65)58.81.30.7
USM#132 ()35% (130)40% (108)2.59 (126)10930% (133)1752.75 (133)#125 (.3)44% (97)45% (89)43% (93)4.17 (104)48.32.40.8



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TROY Offense1429.628.541.4%3.781.3214191542654.448%51%42%41%15%.21
USM Defense1235.82442.2%4.151.4 - - - - - 53%46%41%45%16%.24
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TROY Defense1417.115.538.1%2.961.6 - - - - - 47%52%37%40%18%.03
USM Offense1223.222.236.7%3.071.320354163191453%46%40%34%20%.12

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Troy1430:5921.141%45%5.146.41.31.66.93.1130.9
Southern Miss1233:1520.338%44%6.348.21.31.44.52.1228
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TROY Offense1448% (85)42% (79)34.6153.94.419 (69).15 (75)3.12 (66)72% (88)10% (62)1.03 (50)
USM Defense1253% (106)41% (49) - - - - .22 (109)3.21 (94)67% (30)10% (76)1.24 (129)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TROY Defense1447% (29)37% (22) - - - - -.03 (10)2.75 (18)60% (9)13% (9)0.97 (48)
USM Offense1253% (41)40% (106)40.5163.4416 (89).13 (80)2.89 (107)67% (109)12% (109)1.11 (19)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TROY Offense1451% (45)41% (79)19.932.6265.18.113.329 (18)6 (14).29 (66)1.7 (41)33% (85)29% (80).3 (78)6% (60)2.2 (31)
USM Defense1246% (27)45% (109) - - - - - - 9 (87).32 (101)1.7 (101)31% (93)33% (103).4 (106)6% (63)2.3 (123)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TROY Defense1452% (105)40% (43) - - - - - - 10 (67).12 (11)1.4 (12)34% (36)28% (41).2 (16)5% (105)1.9 (28)
USM Offense1246% (92)34% (126)15.730.4190.76.312.215 (96)8 (30).14 (114)1.7 (26)36% (126)28% (87).34 (67)8% (117)2.1 (49)

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: 5.08 #35
Troy's Offense Rating: 16.62 #64
Troy's Defense Rating: 1.67 #14
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Troy's 2023 Expected Record: 10.00 - 4.00
Troy's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #26
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #34
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Troy: 5.08   Southern Miss: -10.21

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Troy: 10.4   Southern Miss: -15.2




Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: -10.21 #119
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: 11.32 #116
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: 12.99 #102
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Southern Miss's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Southern Miss's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #118
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #85
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #125

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Troy Scoring
Offense: 29.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.5
Defense: 17.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 15.5

Troy's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Troy 33
Southern Miss 15


Total Points: 49

Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 23.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 22.2
Defense: 35.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 24

Southern Miss's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/30Troy52Southern Miss20TroyTroy -17.5Troy48.5Over
202311/25Southern Miss17Troy35TroyTroy -16.5Troy48.5Over
202210/08Troy27Southern Miss10TroyTroy -7Troy44.0Under
202109/18Southern Miss9Troy21TroyTroy -11Troy49.0Under
201909/14Troy42Southern Miss47Southern MissTroy -3Southern Miss49.0Over
201609/17Southern Miss31Troy37TroySouthern Mississippi -11.5Troy61.0Over
200812/21Troy27Southern Miss30Southern Miss
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Southern Miss214 Overs
Troy552 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 52 - 42 - 20 - 2
Road Teams5 - 24 - 22 - 02 - 2

(#35) Troy Info
Power Rating: 5.08 #35
Offense Rating: 16.62 #64
Defense Rating: 1.67 #14
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #26
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #34
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 10.00 - 4.00


Troy has won 8 straight
Troy has won 4 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 5 - 1 (5 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Troy Highlights
Troy Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Troy has a really good defense (#82)
Troy defense does not give up big plays (#50)
Troy defense is really good in red zone (#123)
Troy has a good run defense (#94)
Troy Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#110)
Troy Defensive Line is very good (#125)
Troy Front 7 is disruptive (#48)

Troy Deficiencies
Troy Fumbles a Lot (#1)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatUSMTROY
OverallOver#102#11
OffenseOff#102#22
DefenseDef#81#7
Special TeamsST#86#58
PassingPass#103#12
RushingRush#39#8
Run BlockRBLK#89#88
Pass BlockPBLK#101#72
Route RunningWR Rt#94#9
TacklingTkl#107#24
Run DefenseR Def#41#3
Pass Rush DefPRush#45#14
Coverage DefCov#114#18

Rematch from Week 13
Troy 16.5 (48.5)
Troy won at Southern Miss this year (35-17)

Previous Matchups
Troy beat Southern Miss last year (52-20)
Troy beat Southern Miss in 2023 (35-17)
Troy beat Southern Miss in 2022 (27-10)

Weather Forecast
Playing in M. M. Roberts Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: TROY | USM
Depth Chart: TROY | USM
Rosters: TROY | USM
(#119) Southern Miss Info
Power Rating: -10.21 #119
Offense Rating: 11.32 #116
Defense Rating: 12.99 #102
Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #118
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #85
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #125
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90


Southern Miss has lost 1 straight
Southern Miss has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 4 (2 - 4 - 0 vs Spread)

Southern Miss Highlights
Southern Miss offense is explosive (#57)

Southern Miss Deficiencies
Southern Miss offense is really bad (#78)
Southern Miss Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#90)
Southern Miss offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#81)
Southern Miss run game is really bad (#99)
Southern Miss pass game is really bad (#56)
Southern Miss Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Southern Miss gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#78)
Southern Miss has a bad red zone defense (#64)


  
Troy's OC Joe Craddock
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Gunnar Watson26743861%35572768.1
Will Crowder (Tr)91369%94107.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kimani Vidal2961662145.669
Damien Taylor6734615.245
Asa Martin (Tr)2511404.616
Jarris Williams146914.925
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jabre Barber74994513.452
Chris Lewis (Tr)327341022.964
Deshon Stoudemire43563113.151
Devonte Ross40428310.738

View Troy's Full Roster
Troy's DC Greg Gasparato
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden McDonald7510221
Dell Pettus734104
Jordan Stringer685130
Irshaad Davis662004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Javon Solomon54171650
Richard Jibunor59191140
T.J. Jackson278422
Malaki Pegues93210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Reddy Steward5041010
Don Callis261104
Irshaad Davis662004

Southern Miss's OC Sam Gregg
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Billy Wiles (Tr)15829055%19161176.6
Ethan Crawford193850%246306.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Frank Gore Jr.2311131104.975
Rodrigues Clark (Tr)7642925.659
Kenyon Clay4017914.528
Ethan Crawford429612.316
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jakarius Caston33621618.880
Latreal Jones36498313.843
Tiaquelin Mims39445211.437
Frank Gore Jr.2722138.233

View Southern Miss's Full Roster
Southern Miss's DC Dan O'Brien
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Lawrence (Tr)721101
Jay Stanley552005
Hayes Maples511130
Swayze Bozeman514103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jalil Clemons2610661
Josh Ratcliff284400
Averie Habas133310
Ja'Len Sims283220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jay Stanley552005
Markel McLaurin313205
MJ Daniels (Tr)260004