Western Kentucky at Troy - 2023 Matchup Preview
Western Kentucky logo Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Troy TrojansTroy logo
Saturday, September 23rd 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Troy -3.5 (57.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Troy 27 - Western Kentucky: 24

 
Hilltoppers (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (34 - 22)
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (25 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.6 - 5.4 (#49)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
WKU 2nd straight Road Game
TROY 2nd straight Home Game
TROY is playing their 4th straight game
WKU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Troy -11.5   (SP+ TROY -12)

Projected Score: WKU: 22 - TROY: 33 (55)
TROY Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
WKU Travel: 359 miles
Trojans (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jon Sumrall (13 - 4)
Avg Score : 30 - 17 (33 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 4 (#13)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Western Kentucky's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Western Kentucky vs South Florida-13.571.5W 41 - 24UY
Sat 9/9 Western Kentucky vs Houston Christian-41.564.5W 52 - 22ON
Sat 9/16 Western Kentucky at Ohio State+29.565.0L 10 - 63ON
Sat 9/23 Western Kentucky at Troy+3.557.0L 24 - 27UY
Thu 9/28 Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee-6.561.0W 31 - 10UY
Thu 10/5 Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech-6.059.0W 35 - 28OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/17 Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State-7.560.5L 17 - 20UN
Tue 10/24 Western Kentucky vs Liberty+4.061.5L 29 - 42ON
Sat 11/4 Western Kentucky at UTEP-9.554.5W 21 - 13UN
Sat 11/11 Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State-4.555.5L 29 - 38ON
Sat 11/18 Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston-12.552.0W 28 - 23UN
Sat 11/25 Western Kentucky at Florida International-11.554.0W 41 - 28OY
Mon 12/18 Western Kentucky vs Old Dominion+4.049.0W 38 - 35OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Western Kentucky's Schedule
Troy's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Troy vs Stephen F. Austin-26.048.0W 48 - 30ON
Sat 9/9 Troy at Kansas State+15.050.0L 13 - 42ON
Sat 9/16 Troy vs James Madison-2.546.5L 14 - 16UN
Sat 9/23 Troy vs Western Kentucky-3.557.0W 27 - 24UN
Sat 9/30 Troy at Georgia State+1.050.5W 28 - 7UY
Sat 10/7 Troy vs Arkansas State-15.552.0W 37 - 3UY
Sat 10/14 Troy at Army-6.541.5W 19 - 0UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Troy at Texas State-6.553.0W 31 - 13UY
Thu 11/2 Troy vs South Alabama-5.544.5W 28 - 10UY
Sat 11/11 Troy at UL Monroe-23.547.5W 45 - 14OY
Sat 11/18 Troy vs Louisiana-17.547.5W 31 - 24ON
Sat 11/25 Troy at Southern Miss-16.548.5W 35 - 17OY
Sat 12/2 Troy vs App State-6.551.5W 49 - 23OY
Sat 12/23 Troy vs Duke-7.044.0L 10 - 17UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Troy's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WKU#47 (.22)40% (92)30.538% (119)3.07 (78)10741% (70)2954.95 (6)#81 (.2)44% (98)28.748% (121)41% (53)4 (87)36.81.81.8
TROY#56 (.21)41% (78)29.642% (79)3.12 (66)15441% (79)2653.78 (78)#4 (.03)38% (27)17.137% (22)40% (43)2.96 (10)46.41.31.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WKU#66 (.19)42% (83)38% (117)2.78 (108)11045% (33)2653.83 (78)#95 (.21)45% (102)48% (113)40% (60)3.66 (54)41.31.71.5
TROY#50 (.22)44% (49)42% (94)2.88 (95)15748% (15)2134.43 (22)#77 (.18)43% (87)45% (87)42% (76)3.77 (65)58.81.30.7



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WKU Offense1330.524.740%4.951.8204021072953.938%61%38%41%16%.22
TROY Defense1417.118.638.1%2.961.6 - - - - - 47%52%37%40%18%.03
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WKU Defense1328.729.844%41.8 - - - - - 52%47%48%41%14%.2
TROY Offense1429.633.441.4%3.781.3214191542654.448%51%42%41%15%.21

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Western Kentucky1329:3220.243%62%4.536.81.81.84.42128.2
Troy1430:5921.141%45%5.146.41.31.66.93.1130.9
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WKU Offense1338% (128)38% (119)27.5106.63.912 (116).06 (117)3.07 (78)76% (45)8% (23)0.93 (99)
TROY Defense1447% (29)37% (22) - - - - -.03 (10)2.75 (18)60% (9)13% (9)0.97 (48)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WKU Defense1352% (94)48% (121) - - - - .19 (98)3.47 (125)73% (65)9% (109)0.96 (45)
TROY Offense1448% (85)42% (79)34.6153.94.419 (69).15 (75)3.12 (66)72% (88)10% (62)1.03 (50)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WKU Offense1361% (6)41% (70)26.441.5295.27.111.238 (3)14 (107).35 (42)1.7 (29)33% (90)31% (69).39 (46)9% (128)2.4 (4)
TROY Defense1452% (105)40% (43) - - - - - - 10 (67).12 (11)1.4 (12)34% (36)28% (41).2 (16)5% (105)1.9 (28)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WKU Defense1347% (37)41% (53) - - - - - - 15 (15).27 (64)1.6 (69)31% (80)32% (99).37 (97)6% (81)1.9 (26)
TROY Offense1451% (45)41% (79)19.932.6265.18.113.329 (18)6 (14).29 (66)1.7 (41)33% (85)29% (80).3 (78)6% (60)2.2 (31)

Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: -1.01 #70
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 18.92 #46
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 9.89 #70
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Western Kentucky's 2023 Expected Record: 7.60 - 5.40
Western Kentucky's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.5 #72
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #55
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #86

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -1.01   Troy: 10.24

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -1.5   Troy: 10.4




Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: 10.24 #35
Troy's Offense Rating: 16.62 #64
Troy's Defense Rating: 1.67 #14
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Troy's 2023 Expected Record: 10.00 - 4.00
Troy's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #26
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #34
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.7
Defense: 28.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.8

Western Kentucky's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Troy 33
Western Kentucky 22


Total Points: 55

Troy Scoring
Offense: 29.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.4
Defense: 17.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.6

Troy's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/23Troy27Western Kentucky24TroyTroy -3.5Western Kentucky57.0Under
202210/01Western Kentucky27Troy34TroyWestern Kentucky -5Troy55.0Over
201310/26Western Kentucky26Troy32TroyWestern Kentucky -7.5Troy0
201210/11Troy26Western Kentucky31Western Kentucky
201111/26Western Kentucky41Troy18Western Kentucky
201011/27Troy28Western Kentucky14Troy
200911/07Western Kentucky20Troy40Troy
200811/08Troy17Western Kentucky7Troy
200711/10Western Kentucky17Troy21Troy
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Troy721 Overs
Western Kentucky211 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 50 - 30 - 30 - 0
Road Teams5 - 43 - 00 - 03 - 0

(#70) Western Kentucky Info
Power Rating: -1.01 #70
Offense Rating: 18.92 #46
Defense Rating: 9.89 #70
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.5 #72
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #55
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #86
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 7.60 - 5.40


Western Kentucky has lost 1 straight
Western Kentucky has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 4 - 3 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

Western Kentucky Highlights
Western Kentucky offense is explosive (#19)
Western Kentucky offense is good in red zone (#32)
Western Kentucky does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#114)

Western Kentucky commits very few Penalties (#75)
Western Kentucky defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#56)

Western Kentucky Deficiencies
Western Kentucky has a bad TO Margin (#82)
Western Kentucky Can Not Run the Ball (#117)
Western Kentucky throws a Lot of Interceptions (#23)
Western Kentucky run game is really bad (#112)
Western Kentucky Does Not Stuff Runs (#80)
Western Kentucky has a bad defensive line (#94)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatTROYWKU
OverallOver#11#90
OffenseOff#22#94
DefenseDef#7#68
Special TeamsST#58#30
PassingPass#12#61
RushingRush#8#98
Run BlockRBLK#88#96
Pass BlockPBLK#72#71
Route RunningWR Rt#9#68
TacklingTkl#24#110
Run DefenseR Def#3#103
Pass Rush DefPRush#14#50
Coverage DefCov#18#29

Rematch from Week 4
Troy -3.5 (57.0)
Troy won vs Western Kentucky this year (27-24)

Previous Matchups
Troy beat Western Kentucky in 2023 (27-24)
Troy beat Western Kentucky in 2022 (34-27)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Veterans Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: WKU | TROY
Depth Chart: WKU | TROY
Rosters: WKU | TROY
(#35) Troy Info
Power Rating: 10.24 #35
Offense Rating: 16.62 #64
Defense Rating: 1.67 #14
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #26
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #34
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 10.00 - 4.00


Troy has lost 2 straight
Troy has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 6 - 1 (3 - 4 - 0 vs Spread)

Troy Highlights
Troy Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Troy has a really good defense (#82)
Troy defense does not give up big plays (#50)
Troy defense is really good in red zone (#123)
Troy has a good run defense (#94)
Troy Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#110)
Troy Defensive Line is very good (#125)
Troy Front 7 is disruptive (#48)

Troy Deficiencies
Troy Fumbles a Lot (#1)


  
Western Kentucky's OC Drew Hollingshead
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Austin Reed (Tr)28947062%332431117.1
Caden Veltkamp415476%387517.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijah Young10449034.764
Markese Stepp6931034.556
Davion Ervin-Poindexter6324113.818
LT Sanders3113804.556
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malachi Corley799841112.575
Dalvin Smith50513610.345
Easton Messer42484411.535
Jimmy Holiday (Tr)20326216.339

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster
Western Kentucky's DC Tyson Summers
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kendrick Simpkins5012881
Talique Allen (Tr)481013
Kylan Guidry486310
Desmyn Baker413121
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kendrick Simpkins5012881
Kylan Guidry486310
Sebastian Benjamin253320
Hosea Wheeler404210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Upton Stout241158
Rome Weber191007
Anthony Johnson Jr.361005

Troy's OC Joe Craddock
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Gunnar Watson26743861%35572768.1
Will Crowder (Tr)91369%94107.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kimani Vidal2961662145.669
Damien Taylor6734615.245
Asa Martin (Tr)2511404.616
Jarris Williams146914.925
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jabre Barber74994513.452
Chris Lewis (Tr)327341022.964
Deshon Stoudemire43563113.151
Devonte Ross40428310.738

View Troy's Full Roster
Troy's DC Greg Gasparato
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden McDonald7510221
Dell Pettus734104
Jordan Stringer685130
Irshaad Davis662004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Javon Solomon54171650
Richard Jibunor59191140
T.J. Jackson278422
Malaki Pegues93210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Reddy Steward5041010
Don Callis261104
Irshaad Davis662004