App State at Troy - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, December 2nd 2023 (4:00 PM EST)
Troy -6.5 (51.5) (-225) Open: -6.5 | 51.5
Troy 49 - App State: 23 (Sun Belt Championship)

Mountaineers (9 - 5) (6 - 7 - 1)
Coach Shawn Clark (28 - 14)
Avg Score : 27 - 33 (24 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#34)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Heavy Rain Predicted
TROY is playing their 6th straight game
APP is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: Troy -8.5 (SP+ TROY -7)
Projected Score: APP: 23 - TROY: 32 (58)
TROY Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
APP Travel: 391 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Trojans (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jon Sumrall (13 - 4)
Avg Score : 26 - 28 (29 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 4 (#13)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
APP Players
TROY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

App State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	App State vs Gardner-Webb	-22.5	51.0	W 45 - 24	O	N
Sat 9/9	App State at North Carolina	+18.0	58.0	L 34 - 40	O	Y
Sat 9/16	App State vs East Carolina	-7.5	48.5	W 43 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/23	App State at Wyoming	+3.0	45.0	L 19 - 22	U	Y
Sat 9/30	App State at UL Monroe	-13.5	50.5	W 41 - 40	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/10	App State vs Coastal Carolina	-4.5	59.0	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/21	App State at Old Dominion	-6.0	56.0	L 21 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/28	App State vs Southern Miss	-16.0	55.5	W 48 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/4	App State vs Marshall	-3.0	57.5	W 31 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/11	App State at Georgia State	+2.5	62.5	W 42 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/18	App State at James Madison	+10.0	56.5	W 26 - 23	U	Y
Sat 11/25	App State vs Georgia Southern	-7.5	62.5	W 55 - 27	O	Y
Sat 12/2	App State at Troy	+6.5	51.5	L 23 - 49	O	N
Sat 12/16	App State vs Miami (OH)	-6.5	41.0	W 13 - 9	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for App State's Schedule

Troy's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Troy vs Stephen F. Austin	-26.0	48.0	W 48 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/9	Troy at Kansas State	+15.0	50.0	L 13 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/16	Troy vs James Madison	-2.5	46.5	L 14 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/23	Troy vs Western Kentucky	-3.5	57.0	W 27 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/30	Troy at Georgia State	+1.0	50.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Troy vs Arkansas State	-15.5	52.0	W 37 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Troy at Army	-6.5	41.5	W 19 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Troy at Texas State	-6.5	53.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Thu 11/2	Troy vs South Alabama	-5.5	44.5	W 28 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Troy at UL Monroe	-23.5	47.5	W 45 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Troy vs Louisiana	-17.5	47.5	W 31 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/25	Troy at Southern Miss	-16.5	48.5	W 35 - 17	O	Y
Sat 12/2	Troy vs App State	-6.5	51.5	W 49 - 23	O	Y
Sat 12/23	Troy vs Duke	-7.0	44.0	L 10 - 17	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
APP	.25	45%	26.6	48%	3.37	205	42%	250	4.17	.22	41%	32.9	40%	43%	4.1	50.3	0.9	2.1
TROY	.15	40%	26	40%	2.93	116	41%	243	3.45	.08	40%	28.4	42%	38%	3.04	49.9	1.5	2.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
APP		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TROY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
APP Offense	12	26.6	24.3	45.2%	4.17	0.9	23	455	205	250	5.2	54%	46%	48%	42%	11%	.25
TROY Defense	14	28.4	22.5	39.7%	3.04	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	42%	38%	16%	.08

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
APP Defense	12	32.9	39.7	41.4%	4.1	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	40%	43%	17%	.22
TROY Offense	14	26	29.3	39.7%	3.45	1.5	20	359	116	243	3.3	49%	49%	40%	41%	16%	.15

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
App State	12	30:35	23	39%	49%	5.5	50.3	0.9	2.1	5.7	2.4	1	32.1
Troy	14	30:25	19.5	32%	67%	5.4	49.9	1.5	2.1	5.6	2.9	1	29.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
APP Offense	12	54%	48%	39.5	204.9	5.2	27	.24	3.37	69%	7%	0.99
TROY Defense	14	47%	42%	-	-	-	-	.08	3.09	72%	10%	0.89

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
APP Defense	12	48%	40%	-	-	-	-	.13	2.95	71%	11%	1.07
TROY Offense	14	49%	40%	35.5	116.1	3.3	21	.07	2.93	73%	11%	0.93

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
APP Offense	12	46%	42%	18.8	29.8	250.4	8.4	13.3	28	6	.31	1.7	29%	30%	.34	4%	2.2
TROY Defense	14	53%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.1	1.4	32%	26%	.16	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
APP Defense	12	52%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.33	1.6	33%	31%	.43	6%	2.3
TROY Offense	14	49%	41%	17.9	28.6	242.6	8.5	13.5	20	15	.29	1.7	31%	29%	.2	5%	1.9

App State's Power Ratings
App State's Power Rating: 0.14 #58
App State's Offense Rating: 19.75 #38
App State's Defense Rating: 8.38 #51
2023 Talent Rating: 592.00 #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
App State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 5.50
App State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.0 #55
App State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.3 #24
App State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.4 #102

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 393.43
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
App State: 0.14 Troy: 10.24

SP+ Ratings Matchup
App State: 3.0 Troy: 10.4

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: 10.24 #35
Troy's Offense Rating: 16.62 #64
Troy's Defense Rating: 1.67 #14
2023 Talent Rating: 344.00 #123
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Troy's 2023 Expected Record: 10.00 - 4.00
Troy's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #26
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #34
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 393.43
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

App State Scoring
Offense: 26.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.3
Defense: 32.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.7

App State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 1
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Troy 32
App State 23

Projected Total Points: 58

Troy Scoring
Offense: 26 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.3
Defense: 28.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.5

Troy's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	12/02	Troy	49	App State	23	Troy	Troy -6.5	Troy	51.5	Over
2022	09/17	App State	32	Troy	28	App State	Appalachian State -14	Troy	52.0	Over
2021	11/20	Troy	7	App State	45	App State	Appalachian State -10	App State	51.0	Over
2020	11/28	App State	47	Troy	10	App State	Appalachian State -14	App State	50.5	Over
2019	11/29	Troy	13	App State	48	App State	Appalachian State -11	App State	64.0	Under
2018	11/24	App State	21	Troy	10	App State	Appalachian State -12	Troy	45.0	Under
2016	11/12	Troy	28	App State	24	Troy	Troy -1.5	Troy	49.0	Over
2015	10/31	App State	44	Troy	41	App State	Appalachian State -24	Troy	55.0	Over
2014	10/18	Troy	14	App State	53	App State	Troy -6	App State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Troy	2	5	6 Overs
App State	7	4	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 3	3 - 6	3 - 4	0 - 2
Road Teams	3 - 6	6 - 3	2 - 0	4 - 3

(#58) App State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 0.14 #58
Offense Rating: 19.75 #38
Defense Rating: 8.38 #51
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.0 #55
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.3 #24
Defense SP+ Rating: 32.4 #102
Talent Rating: 592.00 #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 8.50 - 5.50

Team Profile

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App State Ratings Matchup Troy

Power #58

#35

Off #38

#64

Def #51

#14

Talent #75

#123

SP+ #55

#26

SP+ Off #24

#34

SP+ Def #102

#26

Rematch from Week 14
Troy -6.5 (51.5)
Troy won vs App State this year (49-23)

Previous Matchups
Troy beat App State in 2023 (49-23)
App State beat Troy in 2022 (32-28)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Veterans Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Heavy Rain
Temp: 70° - Wind: 7 mph
Rain: 0.189

Team Information
Injuries: APP | TROY
Depth Chart: APP | TROY
Rosters: APP | TROY

(#35) Troy Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 10.24 #35
Offense Rating: 16.62 #64
Defense Rating: 1.67 #14
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #26
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #34
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26
Talent Rating: 344.00 #123
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 10.00 - 4.00

Team Profile

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App State's OC Frank Ponce

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ryan Burger	8	19	42%	88	0	0	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nate Noel	163	818	3	5.0	64
Ahmani Marshall	149	713	7	4.8	29
Maquel Haywood (Tr)	29	148	1	5.1	18
Ryan Burger	17	70	1	4.1	57

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Christan Horn	19	367	1	19.3	83
Eli Wilson	25	292	5	11.7	34
Milan Tucker	13	145	0	11.2	52
Ahmani Marshall	11	71	0	6.5	14

View App State's Full Roster

App State's DC Scott Sloan

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caden Sullivan	35	1	0	2	1
Ronald Clarke	30	0	0	1	0
Montez Kelley	26	2	1	0	0
Avarion Cole	24	1	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Michael Fletcher (Tr)	16	4	4	6	0
Trevor Moffitt	18	4	2	1	0
Kevon Haigler	2	2	1	0	1
Montez Kelley	26	2	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caden Sullivan	35	1	0	2	1
Omari Philyaw	10	0	0	0	1
Kevon Haigler	2	2	1	0	1

Troy's OC Joe Craddock

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
JD Sherrod	2	7	29%	18	0	0	2.6
Landon Parker (Tr)	1	3	33%	29	0	0	9.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
JD Sherrod	13	67	0	5.2	30
Jabre Barber	8	26	0	3.3	8

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jabre Barber	38	381	2	10.0	58
Landon Parker (Tr)	27	350	0	13.0	33

View Troy's Full Roster

Troy's DC Greg Gasparato

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayden McDonald	125	10	4	8	3
Keyshawn Swanson	63	2	0	0	2
Damaje Yancey	49	4	2	0	8
Jack Tchienchou	47	1	0	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
T.J. Jackson	40	14	7	1	0
Jayden McDonald	125	10	4	8	3
Damaje Yancey	49	4	2	0	8
Caleb Ransaw	31	3	1	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Damaje Yancey	49	4	2	0	8
Jayden McDonald	125	10	4	8	3
Keyshawn Swanson	63	2	0	0	2