App State at Troy - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, December 2nd 2023 (4:00 PM EST)
Troy -6.5 (51.5) (-225) Open: -6.5 | 51.5
Troy 49 - App State: 23 (Sun Belt Championship)

Mountaineers (9 - 5) (6 - 7 - 1)
Coach Shawn Clark (28 - 14)
Avg Score : 33 - 27 (29 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#34)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TROY is playing their 6th straight game
APP is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: Troy -8.5 (SP+ TROY -7)
Projected Score: APP: 22 - TROY: 31 (53)
TROY Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
APP Travel: 391 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Trojans (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jon Sumrall (13 - 4)
Avg Score : 30 - 17 (33 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 4 (#13)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
APP Players
TROY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

App State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	App State vs Gardner-Webb	-22.5	51.0	W 45 - 24	O	N
Sat 9/9	App State at North Carolina	+18.0	58.0	L 34 - 40	O	Y
Sat 9/16	App State vs East Carolina	-7.5	48.5	W 43 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/23	App State at Wyoming	+3.0	45.0	L 19 - 22	U	Y
Sat 9/30	App State at UL Monroe	-13.5	50.5	W 41 - 40	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/10	App State vs Coastal Carolina	-4.5	59.0	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/21	App State at Old Dominion	-6.0	56.0	L 21 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/28	App State vs Southern Miss	-16.0	55.5	W 48 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/4	App State vs Marshall	-3.0	57.5	W 31 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/11	App State at Georgia State	+2.5	62.5	W 42 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/18	App State at James Madison	+10.0	56.5	W 26 - 23	U	Y
Sat 11/25	App State vs Georgia Southern	-7.5	62.5	W 55 - 27	O	Y
Sat 12/2	App State at Troy	+6.5	51.5	L 23 - 49	O	N
Sat 12/16	App State vs Miami (OH)	-6.5	41.0	W 13 - 9	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for App State's Schedule

Troy's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Troy vs Stephen F. Austin	-26.0	48.0	W 48 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/9	Troy at Kansas State	+15.0	50.0	L 13 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/16	Troy vs James Madison	-2.5	46.5	L 14 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/23	Troy vs Western Kentucky	-3.5	57.0	W 27 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/30	Troy at Georgia State	+1.0	50.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Troy vs Arkansas State	-15.5	52.0	W 37 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Troy at Army	-6.5	41.5	W 19 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Troy at Texas State	-6.5	53.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Thu 11/2	Troy vs South Alabama	-5.5	44.5	W 28 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Troy at UL Monroe	-23.5	47.5	W 45 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Troy vs Louisiana	-17.5	47.5	W 31 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/25	Troy at Southern Miss	-16.5	48.5	W 35 - 17	O	Y
Sat 12/2	Troy vs App State	-6.5	51.5	W 49 - 23	O	Y
Sat 12/23	Troy vs Duke	-7.0	44.0	L 10 - 17	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
APP	#41 (.24)	46% (28)	33.2	43% (75)	3.18 (55)	172	50% (11)	273	3.8 (77)	#79 (.2)	43% (76)	27	45% (93)	41% (58)	3.15 (17)	40.5	1.6	1.8
TROY	#56 (.21)	41% (78)	29.6	42% (79)	3.12 (66)	154	41% (79)	265	3.78 (78)	#4 (.03)	38% (27)	17.1	37% (22)	40% (43)	2.96 (10)	46.4	1.3	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
APP	#57 (.21)	44% (60)		45% (58)	3.01 (75)	157	43% (62)	273	3.89 (71)	#123 (.3)	49% (127)		51% (130)	47% (119)	4.78 (132)	57	2	1.2
TROY	#50 (.22)	44% (49)		42% (94)	2.88 (95)	157	48% (15)	213	4.43 (22)	#77 (.18)	43% (87)		45% (87)	42% (76)	3.77 (65)	58.8	1.3	0.7

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
APP Offense	14	33.2	29.4	45.6%	3.8	1.6	24	445	172	273	4.5	51%	48%	43%	50%	16%	.24
TROY Defense	14	17.1	18.6	38.1%	2.96	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	37%	40%	18%	.03

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
APP Defense	14	27	30.9	42.6%	3.15	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	45%	41%	18%	.2
TROY Offense	14	29.6	33.4	41.4%	3.78	1.3	21	419	154	265	4.4	48%	51%	42%	41%	15%	.21

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
App State	14	31:15	23.7	42%	64%	4.4	40.5	1.6	1.8	6	2.5	2	29.3
Troy	14	30:59	21.1	41%	45%	5.1	46.4	1.3	1.6	6.9	3.1	1	30.9

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
APP Offense	14	51% (58)	43% (75)	38.1	171.6	4.5	23 (46)	.09 (99)	3.18 (55)	71% (92)	9% (49)	0.97 (83)
TROY Defense	14	47% (29)	37% (22)	-	-	-	-	-.03 (10)	2.75 (18)	60% (9)	13% (9)	0.97 (48)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
APP Defense	14	50% (59)	45% (93)	-	-	-	-	.23 (112)	3.41 (120)	79% (108)	11% (40)	1.1 (113)
TROY Offense	14	48% (85)	42% (79)	34.6	153.9	4.4	19 (69)	.15 (75)	3.12 (66)	72% (88)	10% (62)	1.03 (50)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
APP Offense	14	48% (75)	50% (11)	21.4	33.6	273.4	8.1	12.8	34 (9)	10 (56)	.44 (19)	1.6 (65)	29% (28)	37% (16)	.5 (19)	7% (108)	2.1 (45)
TROY Defense	14	52% (105)	40% (43)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.12 (11)	1.4 (12)	34% (36)	28% (41)	.2 (16)	5% (105)	1.9 (28)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
APP Defense	14	49% (72)	41% (58)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (15)	.2 (30)	1.5 (36)	31% (81)	33% (110)	.43 (117)	7% (29)	2.1 (89)
TROY Offense	14	51% (45)	41% (79)	19.9	32.6	265.1	8.1	13.3	29 (18)	6 (14)	.29 (66)	1.7 (41)	33% (85)	29% (80)	.3 (78)	6% (60)	2.2 (31)

App State's Power Ratings
App State's Power Rating: 0.14 #58
App State's Offense Rating: 19.75 #38
App State's Defense Rating: 8.38 #51
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
App State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 5.50
App State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.0 #55
App State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.3 #24
App State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.4 #102

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
App State: 0.14 Troy: 10.24

SP+ Ratings Matchup
App State: 3.0 Troy: 10.4

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: 10.24 #35
Troy's Offense Rating: 16.62 #64
Troy's Defense Rating: 1.67 #14
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Troy's 2023 Expected Record: 10.00 - 4.00
Troy's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #26
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #34
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

App State Scoring
Offense: 33.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.4
Defense: 27 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.9

App State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 1
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Troy 31
App State 22

Total Points: 53

Troy Scoring
Offense: 29.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.4
Defense: 17.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.6

Troy's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	12/02	Troy	49	App State	23	Troy	Troy -6.5	Troy	51.5	Over
2022	09/17	App State	32	Troy	28	App State	Appalachian State -14	Troy	52.0	Over
2021	11/20	Troy	7	App State	45	App State	Appalachian State -10	App State	51.0	Over
2020	11/28	App State	47	Troy	10	App State	Appalachian State -14	App State	50.5	Over
2019	11/29	Troy	13	App State	48	App State	Appalachian State -11	App State	64.0	Under
2018	11/24	App State	21	Troy	10	App State	Appalachian State -12	Troy	45.0	Under
2016	11/12	Troy	28	App State	24	Troy	Troy -1.5	Troy	49.0	Over
2015	10/31	App State	44	Troy	41	App State	Appalachian State -24	Troy	55.0	Over
2014	10/18	Troy	14	App State	53	App State	Troy -6	App State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Troy	2	5	6 Overs
App State	7	4	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 3	3 - 6	3 - 4	0 - 2
Road Teams	3 - 6	6 - 3	2 - 0	4 - 3

(#58) App State Info
Power Rating: 0.14 #58
Offense Rating: 19.75 #38
Defense Rating: 8.38 #51
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.0 #55
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.3 #24
Defense SP+ Rating: 32.4 #102
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 8.50 - 5.50

App State has won 5 straight
App State has won 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 3 - 4 (3 - 3 - 1 vs Spread )

App State Highlights
App State has Really Good Running Game (#63)
App State offense is efficent (#38)
App State Defense Sacks the QB a lot

App State defense is really good in red zone (#96)
App State Secondary is very good (#8)
App State commits very few Penalties (#121)
App State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

App State Deficiencies
App State has a bad TO Margin (#131)
App State Fumbles a Lot (#128)
App State has a bad defensive line (#32)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	TROY	APP
OverallOver	#11	#33
OffenseOff	#22	#25
DefenseDef	#7	#56
Special TeamsST	#58	#104
PassingPass	#12	#30
RushingRush	#8	#61
Run BlockRBLK	#88	#29
Pass BlockPBLK	#72	#89
Route RunningWR Rt	#9	#13
TacklingTkl	#24	#56
Run DefenseR Def	#3	#105
Pass Rush DefPRush	#14	#29
Coverage DefCov	#18	#22

Rematch from Week 14
Troy -6.5 (51.5)
Troy won vs App State this year (49-23)

Previous Matchups
Troy beat App State in 2023 (49-23)
App State beat Troy in 2022 (32-28)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Veterans Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: APP | TROY
Depth Chart: APP | TROY
Rosters: APP | TROY

(#35) Troy Info
Power Rating: 10.24 #35
Offense Rating: 16.62 #64
Defense Rating: 1.67 #14
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #26
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #34
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 10.00 - 4.00

Troy has won 9 straight
Troy has won 4 straight at Home
Record at home: 6 - 1 (3 - 4 - 0 vs Spread)

Troy Highlights
Troy Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Troy has a really good defense (#82)
Troy defense does not give up big plays (#50)
Troy defense is really good in red zone (#123)
Troy has a good run defense (#94)
Troy Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#110)
Troy Defensive Line is very good (#125)
Troy Front 7 is disruptive (#48)

Troy Deficiencies
Troy Fumbles a Lot (#1)

App State's OC Frank Ponce

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Joey Aguilar	292	459	64%	3754	33	10	8.2
Ryan Burger	7	11	64%	73	1	0	6.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nate Noel	173	825	5	4.8	68
Kanye Roberts	123	696	7	5.7	61
Maquel Haywood (Tr)	60	318	2	5.3	31
Anderson Castle	53	283	2	5.3	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kaedin Robinson	67	905	10	13.5	52
Christan Horn	36	566	6	15.7	52
Makai Jackson (Tr)	27	418	2	15.5	67
Dalton Stroman	20	390	3	19.5	77

View App State's Full Roster

App State's DC Scott Sloan

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Andrew Parker	109	6	2	4	2
Nicholas Ross	101	4	2	2	4
Caden Sullivan	64	4	1	1	1
Ethan Johnson	55	4	0	0	11

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nate Johnson	42	9	8	5	1
Michael Fletcher (Tr)	22	5	5	8	1
Santana Hopper	33	7	4	3	0
Shawn Collins (Tr)	23	4	3	8	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Ethan Johnson	55	4	0	11
Tyrek Funderburk (Tr)	47	3	1	8
E.J. Jackson (Tr)	47	3	0	7

Troy's OC Joe Craddock

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Gunnar Watson	267	438	61%	3557	27	6	8.1
Will Crowder (Tr)	9	13	69%	94	1	0	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kimani Vidal	296	1662	14	5.6	69
Damien Taylor	67	346	1	5.2	45
Asa Martin (Tr)	25	114	0	4.6	16
Jarris Williams	14	69	1	4.9	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jabre Barber	74	994	5	13.4	52
Chris Lewis (Tr)	32	734	10	22.9	64
Deshon Stoudemire	43	563	1	13.1	51
Devonte Ross	40	428	3	10.7	38

View Troy's Full Roster

Troy's DC Greg Gasparato

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayden McDonald	75	10	2	2	1
Dell Pettus	73	4	1	0	4
Jordan Stringer	68	5	1	3	0
Irshaad Davis	66	2	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Javon Solomon	54	17	16	5	0
Richard Jibunor	59	19	11	4	0
T.J. Jackson	27	8	4	2	2
Malaki Pegues	9	3	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Reddy Steward	50	4	1	10
Don Callis	26	1	1	4
Irshaad Davis	66	2	0	4