Troy at Texas State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 28th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Troy -6.5 (53.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Troy 31 - Texas State: 13 (Sun Belt)

Trojans (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jon Sumrall (13 - 4)
Avg Score : 26 - 28 (23 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 4 (#13)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TROY coming off BYE
TXST coming off BYE
Our Line: Troy -8.5 (SP+ TROY -14.5)
Projected Score: TROY: 32 - TXST: 24 (58)
TROY Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
TROY Travel: 722 miles

Bobcats (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 37 - 25 (39 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#47)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TROY Players
TXST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Troy's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Troy vs Stephen F. Austin	-26.0	48.0	W 48 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/9	Troy at Kansas State	+15.0	50.0	L 13 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/16	Troy vs James Madison	-2.5	46.5	L 14 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/23	Troy vs Western Kentucky	-3.5	57.0	W 27 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/30	Troy at Georgia State	+1.0	50.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Troy vs Arkansas State	-15.5	52.0	W 37 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Troy at Army	-6.5	41.5	W 19 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Troy at Texas State	-6.5	53.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Thu 11/2	Troy vs South Alabama	-5.5	44.5	W 28 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Troy at UL Monroe	-23.5	47.5	W 45 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Troy vs Louisiana	-17.5	47.5	W 31 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/25	Troy at Southern Miss	-16.5	48.5	W 35 - 17	O	Y
Sat 12/2	Troy vs App State	-6.5	51.5	W 49 - 23	O	Y
Sat 12/23	Troy vs Duke	-7.0	44.0	L 10 - 17	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Troy's Schedule

Texas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Texas State at Baylor	+26.5	58.5	W 42 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Texas State at UTSA	+13.5	66.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Texas State vs Jackson State	-17.5	61.5	W 77 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Texas State vs Nevada	-17.0	60.0	W 35 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/30	Texas State at Southern Miss	-6.5	60.0	W 50 - 36	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Texas State at Louisiana	+1.0	67.5	L 30 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/14	Texas State vs UL Monroe	-18.5	64.5	W 21 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Texas State vs Troy	+6.5	53.0	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/4	Texas State vs Georgia Southern	+2.0	69.0	W 45 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Texas State at Coastal Carolina	-2.5	55.5	L 23 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/18	Texas State at Arkansas State	-3.5	59.5	L 31 - 77	O	N
Sat 11/25	Texas State vs South Alabama	+6.5	57.0	W 52 - 44	O	Y
Tue 12/26	Texas State vs Rice	-3.5	58.5	W 45 - 21	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TROY	.15	40%	26	40%	2.93	116	41%	243	3.45	.08	40%	28.4	42%	38%	3.04	49.9	1.5	2.1
TXST	.11	38%	36.5	47%	3.14	103	33%	221	3.69	.13	41%	24.5	40%	42%	3.63	44.3	1.4	2.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TROY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TROY Offense	14	26	22.7	39.7%	3.45	1.5	20	359	116	243	3.3	49%	49%	40%	41%	16%	.15
TXST Defense	12	24.5	22.1	40.7%	3.63	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	40%	42%	20%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TROY Defense	14	28.4	34.3	39.7%	3.04	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	42%	38%	16%	.08
TXST Offense	12	36.5	38.7	38.3%	3.69	1.4	18	324	103	221	3.2	43%	56%	47%	33%	21%	.11

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Troy	14	30:25	19.5	32%	67%	5.4	49.9	1.5	2.1	5.6	2.9	1	29.7
Texas State	12	30:28	17.7	37%	33%	4.8	44.3	1.4	2.1	6.4	2.2	2	26.9

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TROY Offense	14	49%	40%	35.5	116.1	3.3	21	.07	2.93	73%	11%	0.93
TXST Defense	12	44%	40%	-	-	-	-	.12	3.17	63%	12%	0.95

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TROY Defense	14	47%	42%	-	-	-	-	.08	3.09	72%	10%	0.89
TXST Offense	12	43%	47%	31.9	103	3.2	9	.13	3.14	75%	13%	0.84

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TROY Offense	14	49%	41%	17.9	28.6	242.6	8.5	13.5	20	15	.29	1.7	31%	29%	.2	5%	1.9
TXST Defense	12	55%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.19	1.4	33%	30%	.25	7%	1.8

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TROY Defense	14	53%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.1	1.4	32%	26%	.16	6%	2.1
TXST Offense	12	56%	33%	22.8	36.8	220.8	6	9.7	19	10	.14	1.6	33%	27%	.38	8%	2.2

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: 5.08 #35
Troy's Offense Rating: 16.62 #64
Troy's Defense Rating: 1.67 #14
2023 Talent Rating: 344.00 #123
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Troy's 2023 Expected Record: 10.00 - 4.00
Troy's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #26
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #34
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 393.43
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Troy: 5.08 Texas State: -0.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Troy: 10.4 Texas State: -4.0

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -0.53 #77
Texas State's Offense Rating: 22.88 #21
Texas State's Defense Rating: 11.42 #91
2023 Talent Rating: 140.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Texas State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.80 - 5.20
Texas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #79
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #47
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #114

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 393.43
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Troy Scoring
Offense: 26 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.7
Defense: 28.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.3

Troy's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Troy 32
Texas State 24

Projected Total Points: 58

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.7
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.1

Texas State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/03	Troy	17	Texas State	38	Texas State	Texas State -14.5	Texas State	56.0	Under
2023	10/28	Texas State	13	Troy	31	Troy	Troy -6.5	Troy	53.0	Under
2022	10/15	Troy	17	Texas State	14	Troy	Troy -16.5	Texas State	47.0	Under
2021	10/16	Texas State	28	Troy	31	Troy	Troy -7.5	Texas State	49.0	Over
2020	10/10	Troy	37	Texas State	17	Troy	Troy -7.0	Troy	59.0	Under
2019	11/16	Texas State	27	Troy	63	Troy	Troy -7	Troy	65.0	Over
2018	11/17	Troy	12	Texas State	7	Troy	Troy -23	Texas State	47.5	Under
2017	11/24	Troy	62	Texas State	9	Troy	Troy -23.5	Troy	53.5	Over
2016	11/26	Texas State	7	Troy	40	Troy	Troy -26.5	Troy	57.5	Under
2013	11/29	Troy	42	Texas State	28	Troy	Troy -4.5	Troy	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas State	1	4	3 Overs
Troy	9	6	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 5	4 - 6	3 - 2	1 - 4
Road Teams	5 - 5	6 - 4	4 - 1	2 - 3

(#35) Troy Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 5.08 #35
Offense Rating: 16.62 #64
Defense Rating: 1.67 #14
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #26
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #34
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26
Talent Rating: 344.00 #123
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 10.00 - 4.00

Team Profile

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Troy Ratings Matchup Texas State

Power #35

#77

Off #64

#21

Def #14

#91

Talent #123

#131

SP+ #26

#79

SP+ Off #34

#47

SP+ Def #26

#114

Rematch from Week 9
Troy 6.5 (53.0)
Troy won at Texas State this year (31-13)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat Troy last year (38-17)
Troy beat Texas State in 2023 (31-13)
Troy beat Texas State in 2022 (17-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 80°( - Hum: 82%) - Wind: 8 mph

Team Information
Injuries: TROY | TXST
Depth Chart: TROY | TXST
Rosters: TROY | TXST

(#77) Texas State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -0.53 #77
Offense Rating: 22.88 #21
Defense Rating: 11.42 #91
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #79
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #47
Defense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #114
Talent Rating: 140.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 7.80 - 5.20

Team Profile

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Troy's OC Joe Craddock

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
JD Sherrod	2	7	29%	18	0	0	2.6
Landon Parker (Tr)	1	3	33%	29	0	0	9.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
JD Sherrod	13	67	0	5.2	30
Jabre Barber	8	26	0	3.3	8

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jabre Barber	38	381	2	10.0	58
Landon Parker (Tr)	27	350	0	13.0	33

View Troy's Full Roster

Troy's DC Greg Gasparato

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayden McDonald	125	10	4	8	3
Keyshawn Swanson	63	2	0	0	2
Damaje Yancey	49	4	2	0	8
Jack Tchienchou	47	1	0	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
T.J. Jackson	40	14	7	1	0
Jayden McDonald	125	10	4	8	3
Damaje Yancey	49	4	2	0	8
Caleb Ransaw	31	3	1	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Damaje Yancey	49	4	2	0	8
Jayden McDonald	125	10	4	8	3
Keyshawn Swanson	63	2	0	0	2

Texas State's OC Mack Leftwich

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
TJ Finley	48	75	64%	490	1	2	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Donerio Davenport	31	107	1	3.5	12
Malik Hornsby	5	86	1	17.2	73
TJ Finley	11	20	0	1.8	8
Joey Hobert (Tr)	3	6	0	2.0	7

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Joey Hobert (Tr)	70	680	8	9.7	40
Ashtyn Hawkins	45	567	5	12.6	35
Konner Fox (Tr)	14	143	1	10.2	23
Drew Donley (Tr)	1	60	1	60.0	60

View Texas State's Full Roster

Texas State's DC Jonathan Patke

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Kenny Haynes	35	2	0	0
Chris Mills	33	3	1	7
Kaleb Culp (Tr)	29	1	0	0
Jaylon Shelton (Tr)	26	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Chris Mills	33	3	1	7
Kenny Haynes	35	2	0	0
Kaleb Culp (Tr)	29	1	0	0
Jaylon Shelton (Tr)	26	0	0	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Chris Mills	33	3	1	7
Jaylon Shelton (Tr)	26	0	0	3
Ronnie Hamrick II	5	0	0	1