Home Field Advantage — ATS Analysis

Home Field Advantage — ATS Analysis | Punt and Rally

The gap between straight-up win rate and ATS cover rate reveals where Vegas underprices (or overprices) the home edge.

Overall Home ATS Home Underdogs Win Rate vs ATS Year-over-Year Trends Conference Breakdown

Last 10 Years (2016–2025) Last 5 Years (2021–2025) Last 2 Years (2024–2025) 2025

#	Team	Conf	Games	SU Win %	ATS %	ATS Edge ▼	Avg Spread	Avg Margin vs Spread
1	Ohio State	Big Ten	7	100.0%	100.0%	+50.0	-26.9	+7.21
2	San Diego State	Mountain West	6	100.0%	100.0%	+50.0	-5.3	+19.08
3	Utah State	Mountain West	6	83.3%	100.0%	+50.0	-5.8	+13.08
4	Hawai'i	Mountain West	8	87.5%	87.5%	+37.5	-5.4	+8.56
5	Alabama	SEC	7	85.7%	85.7%	+35.7	-20.1	+7.71
6	Boise State	Mountain West	7	85.7%	85.7%	+35.7	-16.9	+2.14
7	North Texas	American Athletic	7	85.7%	85.7%	+35.7	-11.5	+12.21
8	Texas Tech	Big 12	7	100.0%	85.7%	+35.7	-30.9	+8.21
9	Vanderbilt	SEC	7	100.0%	85.7%	+35.7	-15.1	+7.71
10	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	6	50.0%	83.3%	+33.3	4.2	+6.00
11	BYU	Big 12	6	100.0%	83.3%	+33.3	-16.7	+10.17
12	Illinois	Big Ten	7	85.7%	83.3%	+33.3	-12.9	+4.00
13	Kennesaw State	Conference USA	6	100.0%	83.3%	+33.3	-5.8	+7.08
14	Louisiana Tech	Conference USA	6	83.3%	83.3%	+33.3	-8.0	+11.17
15	South Florida	American Athletic	6	100.0%	83.3%	+33.3	-19.8	+16.83
16	Toledo	Mid-American	6	100.0%	83.3%	+33.3	-22.2	+16.00
17	UConn	FBS Independents	6	100.0%	83.3%	+33.3	-11.3	+9.58
18	Western Kentucky	Conference USA	6	83.3%	83.3%	+33.3	-12.7	+3.50
19	Western Michigan	Mid-American	6	83.3%	83.3%	+33.3	0.2	+13.50
20	Ball State	Mid-American	5	80.0%	80.0%	+30.0	2.6	+5.40
21	Central Michigan	Mid-American	5	80.0%	80.0%	+30.0	-7.9	+7.30
22	Eastern Michigan	Mid-American	6	50.0%	80.0%	+30.0	0.0	-1.17
23	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	6	66.7%	80.0%	+30.0	-3.6	-0.42
24	Northwestern	Big Ten	5	80.0%	80.0%	+30.0	-5.3	+9.10
25	Arizona	Big 12	7	85.7%	71.4%	+21.4	-10.6	+8.64
26	Florida State	ACC	7	71.4%	71.4%	+21.4	-15.4	+11.79
27	Mississippi State	SEC	7	42.9%	71.4%	+21.4	-3.9	+2.14
28	NC State	ACC	7	85.7%	71.4%	+21.4	-9.1	+5.21
29	Virginia	ACC	7	85.7%	71.4%	+21.4	-12.2	+6.50
30	Wake Forest	ACC	7	71.4%	71.4%	+21.4	-4.1	+6.93
31	Florida Atlantic	American Athletic	6	50.0%	66.7%	+16.7	-0.6	+1.08
32	Florida International	Conference USA	6	66.7%	66.7%	+16.7	-4.9	-2.42
33	Georgia Tech	ACC	6	83.3%	66.7%	+16.7	-15.6	+0.58
34	Jacksonville State	Conference USA	6	83.3%	66.7%	+16.7	-3.1	+7.92
35	Marshall	Sun Belt	6	50.0%	66.7%	+16.7	-0.2	+6.50
36	Memphis	American Athletic	6	66.7%	66.7%	+16.7	-7.9	+2.08
37	Miami (OH)	Mid-American	6	66.7%	66.7%	+16.7	-7.5	+2.17
38	Missouri State	Conference USA	6	50.0%	66.7%	+16.7	1.2	+4.17
39	Ohio	Mid-American	6	100.0%	66.7%	+16.7	-13.7	+2.67
40	Ole Miss	SEC	9	100.0%	66.7%	+16.7	-20.3	+3.17
41	Stanford	ACC	6	66.7%	66.7%	+16.7	13.2	+12.33
42	TCU	Big 12	6	83.3%	66.7%	+16.7	-12.8	-0.92
43	Troy	Sun Belt	6	66.7%	66.7%	+16.7	-5.6	-3.08
44	UTSA	American Athletic	6	66.7%	66.7%	+16.7	-5.8	+14.50
45	Utah	Big 12	6	83.3%	66.7%	+16.7	-16.7	+7.17
46	Washington State	Pac-12	6	83.3%	66.7%	+16.7	-3.3	+6.83
47	West Virginia	Big 12	6	50.0%	66.7%	+16.7	2.4	-3.08
48	Miami	ACC	8	87.5%	62.5%	+12.5	-20.3	+4.13
49	Missouri	SEC	8	75.0%	62.5%	+12.5	-15.4	+3.50
50	Oregon	Big Ten	8	87.5%	62.5%	+12.5	-23.5	+2.88
51	Iowa State	Big 12	6	66.7%	60.0%	+10.0	-6.1	+7.42
52	Kent State	Mid-American	5	60.0%	60.0%	+10.0	6.3	+11.90
53	Colorado	Big 12	7	42.9%	57.1%	+7.1	-1.6	-4.79
54	Indiana	Big Ten	7	100.0%	57.1%	+7.1	-27.9	+12.86
55	Iowa	Big Ten	7	71.4%	57.1%	+7.1	-12.8	+1.79
56	James Madison	Sun Belt	7	100.0%	57.1%	+7.1	-17.6	+7.43
57	Kentucky	SEC	7	57.1%	57.1%	+7.1	-3.8	+5.36
58	Notre Dame	FBS Independents	7	85.7%	57.1%	+7.1	-22.1	+4.64
59	Pittsburgh	ACC	7	57.1%	57.1%	+7.1	-7.3	+4.14
60	Rutgers	Big Ten	7	57.1%	57.1%	+7.1	-5.5	-0.36
61	Southern Miss	Sun Belt	7	57.1%	57.1%	+7.1	-3.9	-0.29
62	USC	Big Ten	7	100.0%	57.1%	+7.1	-18.1	+7.00
63	Washington	Big Ten	7	71.4%	57.1%	+7.1	-8.6	+8.43
64	Akron	Mid-American	6	50.0%	50.0%	+0.0	-0.6	+8.42
65	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	6	66.7%	50.0%	+0.0	1.0	-3.83
66	Delaware	Conference USA	6	83.3%	50.0%	+0.0	-5.5	+3.17
67	East Carolina	American Athletic	6	83.3%	50.0%	+0.0	-12.7	+3.67
68	Florida	SEC	6	66.7%	50.0%	+0.0	-10.8	-0.50
69	Fresno State	Mountain West	6	66.7%	50.0%	+0.0	-9.0	+2.17
70	Houston	Big 12	6	50.0%	50.0%	+0.0	-4.3	-2.75
71	Louisiana	Sun Belt	6	66.7%	50.0%	+0.0	-5.6	-2.42
72	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	6	16.7%	50.0%	+0.0	-2.2	-10.67
73	New Mexico	Mountain West	6	100.0%	50.0%	+0.0	-10.8	-1.17
74	New Mexico State	Conference USA	6	50.0%	50.0%	+0.0	-0.8	+4.75
75	Old Dominion	Sun Belt	6	100.0%	50.0%	+0.0	-17.7	+8.17
76	SMU	ACC	6	83.3%	50.0%	+0.0	-14.4	+2.42
77	Temple	American Athletic	6	33.3%	50.0%	+0.0	4.2	-2.67
78	Texas	SEC	6	100.0%	50.0%	+0.0	-21.3	+0.58
79	Tulane	American Athletic	7	100.0%	50.0%	+0.0	-10.2	+2.93
80	Tulsa	American Athletic	6	33.3%	50.0%	+0.0	2.9	+3.08
81	Wyoming	Mountain West	6	50.0%	50.0%	+0.0	0.8	+3.17
82	Arizona State	Big 12	7	71.4%	42.9%	-7.1	-8.3	-5.00
83	Boston College	ACC	7	14.3%	42.9%	-7.1	4.9	-1.29
84	Cincinnati	Big 12	7	71.4%	42.9%	-7.1	-12.7	+2.14
85	Georgia	SEC	7	85.7%	42.9%	-7.1	-23.1	-2.71
86	Kansas	Big 12	7	57.1%	42.9%	-7.1	-13.6	-3.14
87	Maryland	Big Ten	7	42.9%	42.9%	-7.1	-2.1	-3.07
88	Minnesota	Big Ten	7	100.0%	42.9%	-7.1	-9.4	+7.79
89	Nebraska	Big Ten	7	57.1%	42.9%	-7.1	-13.0	+2.29
90	Oklahoma State	Big 12	7	14.3%	42.9%	-7.1	7.9	-2.64
91	Oregon State	Pac-12	7	28.6%	42.9%	-7.1	-4.2	-7.79
92	Purdue	Big Ten	7	28.6%	42.9%	-7.1	6.8	-2.36
93	South Carolina	SEC	7	42.9%	42.9%	-7.1	-8.9	-4.57
94	UCF	Big 12	7	71.4%	42.9%	-7.1	-11.3	+5.57
95	Wisconsin	Big Ten	7	57.1%	42.9%	-7.1	-1.1	-3.79
96	Oklahoma	SEC	8	75.0%	37.5%	-12.5	-14.8	-3.44
97	App State	Sun Belt	6	50.0%	33.3%	-16.7	-7.6	-7.25
98	Bowling Green	Mid-American	6	50.0%	33.3%	-16.7	-2.1	-4.58
99	Buffalo	Mid-American	7	28.6%	33.3%	-16.7	-7.1	-6.64
100	California	ACC	6	66.7%	33.3%	-16.7	-4.3	-1.42
101	Duke	ACC	6	50.0%	33.3%	-16.7	-8.1	-7.25
102	Kansas State	Big 12	6	66.7%	33.3%	-16.7	-9.3	-7.00
103	Michigan	Big Ten	6	83.3%	33.3%	-16.7	-16.3	-0.42
104	Navy	American Athletic	6	100.0%	33.3%	-16.7	-16.1	-2.25
105	North Carolina	ACC	6	33.3%	33.3%	-16.7	0.8	-4.25
106	San José State	Mountain West	6	50.0%	33.3%	-16.7	-5.4	-9.08
107	South Alabama	Sun Belt	6	33.3%	33.3%	-16.7	-6.5	-7.50
108	Texas State	Sun Belt	6	66.7%	33.3%	-16.7	-12.8	-3.08
109	UNLV	Mountain West	6	83.3%	33.3%	-16.7	-7.6	-0.42
110	Colorado State	Mountain West	7	28.6%	28.6%	-21.4	-3.4	-10.71
111	LSU	SEC	7	85.7%	28.6%	-21.4	-18.1	-9.21
112	Penn State	Big Ten	7	57.1%	28.6%	-21.4	-21.9	-3.00
113	Rice	American Athletic	7	42.9%	28.6%	-21.4	3.4	-4.79
114	Tennessee	SEC	7	57.1%	28.6%	-21.4	-18.9	-5.57
115	Virginia Tech	ACC	7	28.6%	28.6%	-21.4	-3.6	-9.21
116	Texas A&M	SEC	8	87.5%	25.0%	-25.0	-20.1	-4.25
117	Syracuse	ACC	6	33.3%	20.0%	-30.0	-5.0	-12.00
118	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	5	40.0%	20.0%	-30.0	-1.5	-5.30
119	Air Force	Mountain West	6	33.3%	16.7%	-33.3	-4.4	-4.75
120	Arkansas	SEC	6	16.7%	16.7%	-33.3	-6.0	-10.50
121	Charlotte	American Athletic	6	16.7%	16.7%	-33.3	11.2	-7.33
122	Georgia State	Sun Belt	6	16.7%	16.7%	-33.3	3.4	-5.42
123	Liberty	Conference USA	6	50.0%	16.7%	-33.3	-6.2	-2.00
124	Massachusetts	Mid-American	6	0.0%	16.7%	-33.3	6.7	-15.17
125	Michigan State	Big Ten	6	50.0%	16.7%	-33.3	-5.3	-8.33
126	Nevada	Mountain West	6	33.3%	16.7%	-33.3	4.6	-0.92
127	Northern Illinois	Mid-American	6	33.3%	16.7%	-33.3	-2.0	-5.00
128	UAB	American Athletic	6	50.0%	16.7%	-33.3	5.9	-3.58
129	UCLA	Big Ten	6	33.3%	16.7%	-33.3	3.5	-11.67
130	UTEP	Conference USA	6	16.7%	16.7%	-33.3	-1.8	-4.58
131	Auburn	SEC	7	42.9%	14.3%	-35.7	-13.6	-3.57
132	Baylor	Big 12	7	42.9%	14.3%	-35.7	-7.6	-5.93
133	Clemson	ACC	7	42.9%	14.3%	-35.7	-14.7	-10.71
134	Louisville	ACC	8	62.5%	12.5%	-37.5	-16.5	-1.63
135	Army	American Athletic	5	40.0%	0.0%	-50.0	-9.4	-8.00

Methodology: Home field advantage measured by ATS (against the spread) performance. The spread equalizes talent differences, so consistent outperformance = genuine home field edge. Neutral-site games excluded. FCS opponents excluded. Minimum 3 home games required for the selected range. ATS Cover % excludes pushes from the denominator. Data: 2025–2025.