Home Field Advantage — ATS Analysis

Home Field Advantage — ATS Analysis | Punt and Rally

Teams ranked by ATS cover percentage at home. The spread equalizes talent, so consistently beating it = real home field advantage.

Overall Home ATS Home Underdogs Win Rate vs ATS Year-over-Year Trends Conference Breakdown

Last 10 Years (2016–2025) Last 5 Years (2021–2025) Last 2 Years (2024–2025) 2025

#	Team	Conf	Games	ATS Record	ATS % ▲	Avg Margin vs Spread
1	Northern Illinois	Mid-American	30	7-21-2	25.0%	-6.17
2	Charlotte	American Athletic	30	9-21	30.0%	-8.47
3	Georgia State	Sun Belt	30	9-20-1	31.0%	-6.95
4	Tulsa	American Athletic	30	9-20-1	31.0%	-6.28
5	Nevada	Mountain West	31	10-20-1	33.3%	-1.34
6	Arkansas	SEC	32	11-21	34.4%	-6.75
7	Purdue	Big Ten	32	11-21	34.4%	-3.80
8	Massachusetts	Mid-American	29	10-19	34.5%	-6.41
9	Colorado State	Mountain West	31	11-20	35.5%	-6.29
10	Georgia	SEC	32	11-20-1	35.5%	-2.19
11	Michigan State	Big Ten	32	11-20-1	35.5%	-4.52
12	North Carolina	ACC	33	12-21	36.4%	-3.56
13	Army	American Athletic	30	11-19	36.7%	-0.82
14	Stanford	ACC	31	11-19-1	36.7%	-2.40
15	Clemson	ACC	34	13-21	38.2%	-3.57
16	Buffalo	Mid-American	30	11-17-2	39.3%	-1.83
17	New Mexico	Mountain West	29	11-17-1	39.3%	-2.66
18	UCLA	Big Ten	33	13-20	39.4%	-3.77
19	Air Force	Mountain West	30	12-18	40.0%	+0.10
20	Wisconsin	Big Ten	35	14-21	40.0%	-3.77
21	Bowling Green	Mid-American	29	12-17	41.4%	-3.91
22	Florida International	Conference USA	24	10-14	41.7%	-5.75
23	App State	Sun Belt	31	13-18	41.9%	-1.03
24	San José State	Mountain West	31	13-18	41.9%	-2.76
25	Vanderbilt	SEC	33	14-19	42.4%	-1.20
26	Florida Atlantic	American Athletic	30	12-16-2	42.9%	-1.27
27	Maryland	Big Ten	35	15-20	42.9%	-2.89
28	Auburn	SEC	37	16-21	43.2%	-2.41
29	Houston	Big 12	30	13-17	43.3%	-2.17
30	Cincinnati	Big 12	32	14-18	43.8%	+0.02
31	Liberty	Conference USA	32	14-18	43.8%	-3.89
32	Kent State	Mid-American	25	11-14	44.0%	-0.90
33	Georgia Tech	ACC	28	12-15-1	44.4%	-4.77
34	Navy	American Athletic	28	12-15-1	44.4%	-0.91
35	UTEP	Conference USA	29	13-16	44.8%	-1.33
36	Virginia Tech	ACC	31	14-17	45.2%	-1.34
37	Boston College	ACC	33	15-18	45.5%	-0.92
38	Miami	ACC	35	16-19	45.7%	-3.09
39	Texas A&M	SEC	36	16-19-1	45.7%	+0.01
40	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	27	12-14-1	46.2%	-1.02
41	Fresno State	Mountain West	30	14-16	46.7%	-0.10
42	Florida	SEC	32	15-17	46.9%	+0.48
43	Memphis	American Athletic	33	15-17-1	46.9%	+0.68
44	Nebraska	Big Ten	35	16-18-1	47.1%	+0.14
45	UCF	Big 12	34	16-18	47.1%	+1.97
46	Akron	Mid-American	26	12-13-1	48.0%	-1.44
47	Old Dominion	Sun Belt	29	14-15	48.3%	+4.29
48	Iowa State	Big 12	33	15-16-2	48.4%	+1.86
49	Southern Miss	Sun Belt	31	15-16	48.4%	-1.84
50	Illinois	Big Ten	35	16-17-2	48.5%	+1.86
51	Oklahoma State	Big 12	34	16-17-1	48.5%	-0.04
52	California	ACC	32	16-16	50.0%	-0.13
53	Eastern Michigan	Mid-American	31	15-15-1	50.0%	-3.76
54	Marshall	Sun Belt	30	15-15	50.0%	-1.10
55	Michigan	Big Ten	36	17-17-2	50.0%	+1.60
56	Rutgers	Big Ten	33	16-16-1	50.0%	-2.56
57	South Alabama	Sun Belt	30	15-15	50.0%	+1.80
58	Texas State	Sun Belt	30	15-15	50.0%	+2.05
59	Troy	Sun Belt	32	16-16	50.0%	+0.08
60	UAB	American Athletic	29	14-14-1	50.0%	+0.02
61	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	28	14-14	50.0%	+3.39
62	UNLV	Mountain West	31	15-15-1	50.0%	+2.65
63	Wake Forest	ACC	32	16-16	50.0%	-0.23
64	Mississippi State	SEC	36	18-17-1	51.4%	-1.60
65	Arizona State	Big 12	34	17-16-1	51.5%	-3.06
66	Baylor	Big 12	34	17-16-1	51.5%	-1.63
67	Florida State	ACC	33	17-16	51.5%	+0.80
68	Iowa	Big Ten	34	17-16-1	51.5%	+1.38
69	San Diego State	Mountain West	33	17-16	51.5%	+0.29
70	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	32	16-15-1	51.6%	-2.50
71	Syracuse	ACC	33	16-15-2	51.6%	-0.21
72	TCU	Big 12	32	16-15-1	51.6%	+0.88
73	Central Michigan	Mid-American	28	14-13-1	51.9%	+1.20
74	Northwestern	Big Ten	23	12-11	52.2%	+0.41
75	Missouri	SEC	36	19-17	52.8%	+0.06
76	Tennessee	SEC	36	19-17	52.8%	+2.92
77	Indiana	Big Ten	34	18-16	52.9%	+3.12
78	Louisville	ACC	34	18-16	52.9%	+5.62
79	Oklahoma	SEC	34	18-16	52.9%	+0.31
80	Tulane	American Athletic	35	18-16-1	52.9%	+2.27
81	USC	Big Ten	34	18-16	52.9%	-1.06
82	Rice	American Athletic	32	17-15	53.1%	-0.28
83	Temple	American Athletic	32	17-15	53.1%	+0.08
84	East Carolina	American Athletic	31	16-14-1	53.3%	+2.48
85	Louisiana	Sun Belt	31	16-14-1	53.3%	+1.65
86	Toledo	Mid-American	30	16-14	53.3%	+2.82
87	Wyoming	Mountain West	31	16-14-1	53.3%	+1.18
88	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	29	15-13-1	53.6%	+2.83
89	Penn State	Big Ten	36	19-16-1	54.3%	+0.97
90	South Carolina	SEC	35	19-16	54.3%	+2.54
91	Arizona	Big 12	33	18-15	54.5%	+0.02
92	Minnesota	Big Ten	35	18-15-2	54.5%	+2.41
93	Washington	Big Ten	34	18-15-1	54.5%	+2.46
94	Virginia	ACC	31	17-14	54.8%	-2.66
95	Miami (OH)	Mid-American	27	15-12	55.6%	+2.17
96	South Florida	American Athletic	27	15-12	55.6%	+3.70
97	NC State	ACC	35	19-15-1	55.9%	+2.44
98	Pittsburgh	ACC	34	19-15	55.9%	+2.51
99	James Madison	Sun Belt	25	14-11	56.0%	+5.36
100	Kansas	Big 12	26	14-11-1	56.0%	+1.17
101	North Texas	American Athletic	31	17-13-1	56.7%	+3.81
102	Kentucky	SEC	37	21-16	56.8%	-1.03
103	BYU	Big 12	28	16-12	57.1%	+3.29
104	Louisiana Tech	Conference USA	28	16-12	57.1%	+2.73
105	Ole Miss	SEC	37	20-15-2	57.1%	+2.99
106	Western Michigan	Mid-American	28	16-12	57.1%	+1.21
107	Colorado	Big 12	31	18-13	58.1%	+0.63
108	West Virginia	Big 12	31	18-13	58.1%	-0.66
109	New Mexico State	Conference USA	29	17-12	58.6%	+3.79
110	LSU	SEC	35	20-14-1	58.8%	+0.57
111	Oregon	Big Ten	34	20-14	58.8%	+3.29
112	Duke	ACC	32	19-13	59.4%	+1.55
113	Kansas State	Big 12	33	20-13	60.6%	+4.82
114	Texas	SEC	33	20-13	60.6%	+2.68
115	UTSA	American Athletic	33	20-13	60.6%	+5.38
116	Ball State	Mid-American	28	17-11	60.7%	+1.79
117	Texas Tech	Big 12	33	19-12-2	61.3%	+2.15
118	Utah	Big 12	31	19-12	61.3%	+4.68
119	Notre Dame	FBS Independents	33	20-12-1	62.5%	+4.48
120	Washington State	Pac-12	32	20-12	62.5%	+0.66
121	Ohio	Mid-American	30	19-11	63.3%	+1.35
122	SMU	ACC	30	19-11	63.3%	+6.18
123	Western Kentucky	Conference USA	30	19-11	63.3%	+1.87
124	Boise State	Mountain West	33	21-11-1	65.6%	+2.20
125	Oregon State	Pac-12	32	21-11	65.6%	+3.20
126	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	30	18-9-3	66.7%	+2.32
127	UConn	FBS Independents	31	20-10-1	66.7%	+6.11
128	Ohio State	Big Ten	37	24-11-2	68.6%	+3.34
129	Hawai'i	Mountain West	34	22-10-2	68.8%	+3.78
130	Utah State	Mountain West	29	20-9	69.0%	+4.19
131	Alabama	SEC	35	24-10-1	70.6%	+1.99
132	Jacksonville State	Conference USA	19	14-5	73.7%	+9.16

Methodology: Home field advantage measured by ATS (against the spread) performance. The spread equalizes talent differences, so consistent outperformance = genuine home field edge. Neutral-site games excluded. FCS opponents excluded. Minimum 15 home games required for the selected range. ATS Cover % excludes pushes from the denominator. Data: 2021–2025.