Home Field Advantage — ATS Analysis

Home Field Advantage — ATS Analysis | Punt and Rally

The gap between straight-up win rate and ATS cover rate reveals where Vegas underprices (or overprices) the home edge.

Overall Home ATS Home Underdogs Win Rate vs ATS Year-over-Year Trends Conference Breakdown

Last 10 Years (2016–2025) Last 5 Years (2021–2025) Last 2 Years (2024–2025) 2025

#	Team	Conf	Games	SU Win %	ATS %	ATS Edge ▲	Avg Spread	Avg Margin vs Spread
1	Northern Illinois	Mid-American	30	46.7%	25.0%	-25.0	-6.6	-6.17
2	Charlotte	American Athletic	30	33.3%	30.0%	-20.0	3.4	-8.47
3	Georgia State	Sun Belt	30	40.0%	31.0%	-19.0	-2.3	-6.95
4	Tulsa	American Athletic	30	40.0%	31.0%	-19.0	-2.5	-6.28
5	Nevada	Mountain West	31	35.5%	33.3%	-16.7	1.1	-1.34
6	Arkansas	SEC	32	50.0%	34.4%	-15.6	-8.2	-6.75
7	Purdue	Big Ten	32	43.8%	34.4%	-15.6	-0.2	-3.80
8	Massachusetts	Mid-American	29	17.2%	34.5%	-15.5	7.0	-6.41
9	Colorado State	Mountain West	31	45.2%	35.5%	-14.5	-2.1	-6.29
10	Georgia	SEC	32	96.9%	35.5%	-14.5	-29.2	-2.19
11	Michigan State	Big Ten	32	62.5%	35.5%	-14.5	-4.5	-4.52
12	North Carolina	ACC	33	60.6%	36.4%	-13.6	-11.9	-3.56
13	Army	American Athletic	30	66.7%	36.7%	-13.3	-12.3	-0.82
14	Stanford	ACC	31	29.0%	36.7%	-13.3	7.6	-2.40
15	Clemson	ACC	34	76.5%	38.2%	-11.8	-18.9	-3.57
16	Buffalo	Mid-American	30	43.3%	39.3%	-10.7	-5.0	-1.83
17	New Mexico	Mountain West	29	48.3%	39.3%	-10.7	-0.2	-2.66
18	UCLA	Big Ten	33	54.5%	39.4%	-10.6	-6.3	-3.77
19	Air Force	Mountain West	30	63.3%	40.0%	-10.0	-10.2	+0.10
20	Wisconsin	Big Ten	35	57.1%	40.0%	-10.0	-8.3	-3.77
21	Bowling Green	Mid-American	29	48.3%	41.4%	-8.6	-1.5	-3.91
22	Florida International	Conference USA	24	37.5%	41.7%	-8.3	2.6	-5.75
23	App State	Sun Belt	31	77.4%	41.9%	-8.1	-13.1	-1.03
24	San José State	Mountain West	31	67.7%	41.9%	-8.1	-7.1	-2.76
25	Vanderbilt	SEC	33	48.5%	42.4%	-7.6	1.3	-1.20
26	Florida Atlantic	American Athletic	30	50.0%	42.9%	-7.1	-4.2	-1.27
27	Maryland	Big Ten	35	54.3%	42.9%	-7.1	-6.4	-2.89
28	Auburn	SEC	37	51.4%	43.2%	-6.8	-11.5	-2.41
29	Houston	Big 12	30	56.7%	43.3%	-6.7	-4.2	-2.17
30	Cincinnati	Big 12	32	62.5%	43.8%	-6.3	-11.5	+0.02
31	Liberty	Conference USA	32	75.0%	43.8%	-6.3	-14.0	-3.89
32	Kent State	Mid-American	25	48.0%	44.0%	-6.0	-1.5	-0.90
33	Georgia Tech	ACC	28	57.1%	44.4%	-5.6	-7.8	-4.77
34	Navy	American Athletic	28	60.7%	44.4%	-5.6	-4.5	-0.91
35	UTEP	Conference USA	29	44.8%	44.8%	-5.2	-0.3	-1.33
36	Virginia Tech	ACC	31	51.6%	45.2%	-4.8	-5.7	-1.34
37	Boston College	ACC	33	45.5%	45.5%	-4.5	-0.8	-0.92
38	Miami	ACC	35	71.4%	45.7%	-4.3	-17.6	-3.09
39	Texas A&M	SEC	36	77.8%	45.7%	-4.3	-17.3	+0.01
40	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	27	48.1%	46.2%	-3.8	-3.2	-1.02
41	Fresno State	Mountain West	30	76.7%	46.7%	-3.3	-14.7	-0.10
42	Florida	SEC	32	71.9%	46.9%	-3.1	-11.0	+0.48
43	Memphis	American Athletic	33	75.8%	46.9%	-3.1	-11.3	+0.68
44	Nebraska	Big Ten	35	51.4%	47.1%	-2.9	-8.1	+0.14
45	UCF	Big 12	34	70.6%	47.1%	-2.9	-14.6	+1.97
46	Akron	Mid-American	26	34.6%	48.0%	-2.0	3.2	-1.44
47	Old Dominion	Sun Belt	29	58.6%	48.3%	-1.7	-1.3	+4.29
48	Iowa State	Big 12	33	63.6%	48.4%	-1.6	-9.2	+1.86
49	Southern Miss	Sun Belt	31	38.7%	48.4%	-1.6	0.1	-1.84
50	Illinois	Big Ten	35	65.7%	48.5%	-1.5	-6.4	+1.86
51	Oklahoma State	Big 12	34	64.7%	48.5%	-1.5	-5.5	-0.04
52	California	ACC	32	59.4%	50.0%	+0.0	-4.8	-0.13
53	Eastern Michigan	Mid-American	31	58.1%	50.0%	+0.0	-3.5	-3.76
54	Marshall	Sun Belt	30	70.0%	50.0%	+0.0	-9.8	-1.10
55	Michigan	Big Ten	36	91.7%	50.0%	+0.0	-18.9	+1.60
56	Rutgers	Big Ten	33	51.5%	50.0%	+0.0	-4.6	-2.56
57	South Alabama	Sun Belt	30	60.0%	50.0%	+0.0	-9.5	+1.80
58	Texas State	Sun Belt	30	60.0%	50.0%	+0.0	-6.6	+2.05
59	Troy	Sun Belt	32	71.9%	50.0%	+0.0	-7.7	+0.08
60	UAB	American Athletic	29	62.1%	50.0%	+0.0	-4.4	+0.02
61	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	28	53.6%	50.0%	+0.0	5.5	+3.39
62	UNLV	Mountain West	31	61.3%	50.0%	+0.0	-4.3	+2.65
63	Wake Forest	ACC	32	59.4%	50.0%	+0.0	-6.2	-0.23
64	Mississippi State	SEC	36	52.8%	51.4%	+1.4	-6.1	-1.60
65	Arizona State	Big 12	34	61.8%	51.5%	+1.5	-5.1	-3.06
66	Baylor	Big 12	34	55.9%	51.5%	+1.5	-8.6	-1.63
67	Florida State	ACC	33	60.6%	51.5%	+1.5	-12.4	+0.80
68	Iowa	Big Ten	34	76.5%	51.5%	+1.5	-10.0	+1.38
69	San Diego State	Mountain West	33	63.6%	51.5%	+1.5	-4.7	+0.29
70	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	32	71.9%	51.6%	+1.6	-9.3	-2.50
71	Syracuse	ACC	33	60.6%	51.6%	+1.6	-6.1	-0.21
72	TCU	Big 12	32	71.9%	51.6%	+1.6	-12.3	+0.88
73	Central Michigan	Mid-American	28	67.9%	51.9%	+1.9	-7.3	+1.20
74	Northwestern	Big Ten	23	52.2%	52.2%	+2.2	0.3	+0.41
75	Missouri	SEC	36	80.6%	52.8%	+2.8	-11.4	+0.06
76	Tennessee	SEC	36	80.6%	52.8%	+2.8	-20.4	+2.92
77	Indiana	Big Ten	34	64.7%	52.9%	+2.9	-9.8	+3.12
78	Louisville	ACC	34	70.6%	52.9%	+2.9	-10.7	+5.62
79	Oklahoma	SEC	34	82.4%	52.9%	+2.9	-17.3	+0.31
80	Tulane	American Athletic	35	71.4%	52.9%	+2.9	-10.8	+2.27
81	USC	Big Ten	34	70.6%	52.9%	+2.9	-14.9	-1.06
82	Rice	American Athletic	32	56.3%	53.1%	+3.1	-0.7	-0.28
83	Temple	American Athletic	32	40.6%	53.1%	+3.1	5.8	+0.08
84	East Carolina	American Athletic	31	58.1%	53.3%	+3.3	-6.5	+2.48
85	Louisiana	Sun Belt	31	71.0%	53.3%	+3.3	-8.4	+1.65
86	Toledo	Mid-American	30	80.0%	53.3%	+3.3	-17.9	+2.82
87	Wyoming	Mountain West	31	58.1%	53.3%	+3.3	-1.7	+1.18
88	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	29	51.7%	53.6%	+3.6	2.4	+2.83
89	Penn State	Big Ten	36	77.8%	54.3%	+4.3	-19.6	+0.97
90	South Carolina	SEC	35	65.7%	54.3%	+4.3	-6.6	+2.54
91	Arizona	Big 12	33	54.5%	54.5%	+4.5	-3.5	+0.02
92	Minnesota	Big Ten	35	68.6%	54.5%	+4.5	-8.7	+2.41
93	Washington	Big Ten	34	79.4%	54.5%	+4.5	-12.2	+2.46
94	Virginia	ACC	31	48.4%	54.8%	+4.8	-4.6	-2.66
95	Miami (OH)	Mid-American	27	77.8%	55.6%	+5.6	-10.6	+2.17
96	South Florida	American Athletic	27	55.6%	55.6%	+5.6	-2.2	+3.70
97	NC State	ACC	35	80.0%	55.9%	+5.9	-10.4	+2.44
98	Pittsburgh	ACC	34	64.7%	55.9%	+5.9	-9.0	+2.51
99	James Madison	Sun Belt	25	88.0%	56.0%	+6.0	-17.6	+5.36
100	Kansas	Big 12	26	53.8%	56.0%	+6.0	-1.8	+1.17
101	North Texas	American Athletic	31	64.5%	56.7%	+6.7	-4.8	+3.81
102	Kentucky	SEC	37	59.5%	56.8%	+6.8	-9.5	-1.03
103	BYU	Big 12	28	78.6%	57.1%	+7.1	-8.7	+3.29
104	Louisiana Tech	Conference USA	28	57.1%	57.1%	+7.1	-4.4	+2.73
105	Ole Miss	SEC	37	91.9%	57.1%	+7.1	-18.6	+2.99
106	Western Michigan	Mid-American	28	64.3%	57.1%	+7.1	-5.2	+1.21
107	Colorado	Big 12	31	48.4%	58.1%	+8.1	1.8	+0.63
108	West Virginia	Big 12	31	58.1%	58.1%	+8.1	-4.6	-0.66
109	New Mexico State	Conference USA	29	55.2%	58.6%	+8.6	-0.8	+3.79
110	LSU	SEC	35	85.7%	58.8%	+8.8	-15.5	+0.57
111	Oregon	Big Ten	34	94.1%	58.8%	+8.8	-20.0	+3.29
112	Duke	ACC	32	68.8%	59.4%	+9.4	-4.6	+1.55
113	Kansas State	Big 12	33	72.7%	60.6%	+10.6	-9.3	+4.82
114	Texas	SEC	33	84.8%	60.6%	+10.6	-18.6	+2.68
115	UTSA	American Athletic	33	87.9%	60.6%	+10.6	-12.6	+5.38
116	Ball State	Mid-American	28	53.6%	60.7%	+10.7	0.4	+1.79
117	Texas Tech	Big 12	33	75.8%	61.3%	+11.3	-11.7	+2.15
118	Utah	Big 12	31	80.6%	61.3%	+11.3	-13.6	+4.68
119	Notre Dame	FBS Independents	33	81.8%	62.5%	+12.5	-17.7	+4.48
120	Washington State	Pac-12	32	68.8%	62.5%	+12.5	-8.5	+0.66
121	Ohio	Mid-American	30	80.0%	63.3%	+13.3	-8.9	+1.35
122	SMU	ACC	30	83.3%	63.3%	+13.3	-15.2	+6.18
123	Western Kentucky	Conference USA	30	73.3%	63.3%	+13.3	-12.7	+1.87
124	Boise State	Mountain West	33	78.8%	65.6%	+15.6	-15.0	+2.20
125	Oregon State	Pac-12	32	68.8%	65.6%	+15.6	-6.3	+3.20
126	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	30	63.3%	66.7%	+16.7	-3.2	+2.32
127	UConn	FBS Independents	31	61.3%	66.7%	+16.7	1.1	+6.11
128	Ohio State	Big Ten	37	91.9%	68.6%	+18.6	-26.7	+3.34
129	Hawai'i	Mountain West	34	61.8%	68.8%	+18.8	1.2	+3.78
130	Utah State	Mountain West	29	58.6%	69.0%	+19.0	-1.4	+4.19
131	Alabama	SEC	35	94.3%	70.6%	+20.6	-25.8	+1.99
132	Jacksonville State	Conference USA	19	84.2%	73.7%	+23.7	-5.8	+9.16

Methodology: Home field advantage measured by ATS (against the spread) performance. The spread equalizes talent differences, so consistent outperformance = genuine home field edge. Neutral-site games excluded. FCS opponents excluded. Minimum 15 home games required for the selected range. ATS Cover % excludes pushes from the denominator. Data: 2021–2025.