Home Field Advantage — ATS Analysis

Home Field Advantage — ATS Analysis | Punt and Rally

Teams ranked by ATS cover percentage at home. The spread equalizes talent, so consistently beating it = real home field advantage.

Overall Home ATS Home Underdogs Win Rate vs ATS Year-over-Year Trends Conference Breakdown

Last 10 Years (2016–2025) Last 5 Years (2021–2025) Last 2 Years (2024–2025) 2025

#	Team	Conf	Games	ATS Record	ATS % ▲	Avg Margin vs Spread
1	Michigan State	Big Ten	13	2-11	15.4%	-8.62
2	North Carolina	ACC	13	2-11	15.4%	-6.42
3	Georgia State	Sun Belt	12	2-10	16.7%	-7.33
4	Northern Illinois	Mid-American	12	2-9-1	18.2%	-5.25
5	Air Force	Mountain West	12	3-9	25.0%	-2.17
6	Arkansas	SEC	12	3-9	25.0%	-8.50
7	Charlotte	American Athletic	12	3-9	25.0%	-7.13
8	Liberty	Conference USA	12	3-9	25.0%	-3.63
9	UCLA	Big Ten	12	3-9	25.0%	-7.13
10	Texas A&M	SEC	15	4-11	26.7%	-2.43
11	Army	American Athletic	11	3-8	27.3%	+0.50
12	UTEP	Conference USA	11	3-8	27.3%	-3.32
13	Clemson	ACC	14	4-10	28.6%	-5.54
14	Georgia	SEC	13	4-9	30.8%	-5.38
15	Oklahoma State	Big 12	13	4-9	30.8%	-4.15
16	Purdue	Big Ten	13	4-9	30.8%	-6.27
17	Auburn	SEC	15	5-10	33.3%	-3.03
18	Bowling Green	Mid-American	12	4-8	33.3%	-4.96
19	Massachusetts	Mid-American	12	4-8	33.3%	-9.38
20	Nevada	Mountain West	13	4-8-1	33.3%	+1.50
21	Syracuse	ACC	13	4-8-1	33.3%	-4.54
22	UAB	American Athletic	12	4-8	33.3%	+0.42
23	LSU	SEC	14	5-9	35.7%	-6.64
24	Louisville	ACC	14	5-9	35.7%	+1.82
25	Maryland	Big Ten	14	5-9	35.7%	-5.25
26	Michigan	Big Ten	14	5-9	35.7%	+0.18
27	Oregon State	Pac-12	14	5-9	35.7%	-4.86
28	Wisconsin	Big Ten	14	5-9	35.7%	-2.57
29	App State	Sun Belt	11	4-7	36.4%	-5.59
30	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	11	4-7	36.4%	-10.95
31	California	ACC	13	5-8	38.5%	-1.27
32	San José State	Mountain West	13	5-8	38.5%	-3.85
33	Virginia Tech	ACC	13	5-8	38.5%	-3.50
34	Kent State	Mid-American	10	4-6	40.0%	+0.10
35	Penn State	Big Ten	15	6-9	40.0%	-1.40
36	Kansas State	Big 12	12	5-7	41.7%	-1.46
37	Old Dominion	Sun Belt	12	5-7	41.7%	+6.25
38	South Alabama	Sun Belt	12	5-7	41.7%	-0.88
39	Texas State	Sun Belt	12	5-7	41.7%	+1.46
40	Tulsa	American Athletic	12	5-7	41.7%	-4.67
41	UNLV	Mountain West	12	5-7	41.7%	+4.38
42	Arizona	Big 12	14	6-8	42.9%	-2.86
43	Colorado State	Mountain West	14	6-8	42.9%	-5.57
44	Kansas	Big 12	7	3-4	42.9%	-3.14
45	Tennessee	SEC	14	6-8	42.9%	+0.89
46	UCF	Big 12	14	6-8	42.9%	+1.07
47	Louisiana	Sun Belt	12	5-6-1	45.5%	-2.25
48	Navy	American Athletic	11	5-6	45.5%	+0.91
49	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	11	5-6	45.5%	+3.23
50	Baylor	Big 12	13	6-7	46.2%	+0.19
51	Cincinnati	Big 12	13	6-7	46.2%	+1.42
52	NC State	ACC	14	6-7-1	46.2%	+0.29
53	Rice	American Athletic	13	6-7	46.2%	+0.65
54	Wake Forest	ACC	13	6-7	46.2%	+0.81
55	West Virginia	Big 12	13	6-7	46.2%	-5.12
56	Oklahoma	SEC	15	7-8	46.7%	-2.03
57	Buffalo	Mid-American	13	6-6-1	50.0%	+2.00
58	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	12	6-6	50.0%	-3.63
59	Delaware	Conference USA	6	3-3	50.0%	+3.17
60	Duke	ACC	12	6-6	50.0%	-2.92
61	Florida Atlantic	American Athletic	12	6-6	50.0%	-2.50
62	Fresno State	Mountain West	12	6-6	50.0%	+3.38
63	Houston	Big 12	12	6-6	50.0%	+0.08
64	New Mexico State	Conference USA	12	6-6	50.0%	+4.33
65	Rutgers	Big Ten	14	7-7	50.0%	-2.39
66	South Carolina	SEC	14	7-7	50.0%	-1.32
67	TCU	Big 12	12	6-6	50.0%	-1.25
68	Wyoming	Mountain West	12	6-6	50.0%	+2.33
69	Kentucky	SEC	15	8-7	53.3%	-0.73
70	Florida	SEC	13	7-6	53.8%	+3.31
71	Iowa	Big Ten	13	7-6	53.8%	+4.77
72	James Madison	Sun Belt	13	7-6	53.8%	+6.73
73	Memphis	American Athletic	13	7-6	53.8%	+0.81
74	Nebraska	Big Ten	14	7-6-1	53.8%	+1.43
75	Southern Miss	Sun Belt	13	7-6	53.8%	-1.96
76	Akron	Mid-American	11	6-5	54.5%	+6.27
77	New Mexico	Mountain West	11	6-5	54.5%	+0.41
78	Boston College	ACC	14	8-6	57.1%	+2.82
79	Florida State	ACC	14	8-6	57.1%	+1.11
80	Mississippi State	SEC	14	8-6	57.1%	-1.86
81	Oregon	Big Ten	14	8-6	57.1%	+1.82
82	Texas	SEC	14	8-6	57.1%	+0.68
83	East Carolina	American Athletic	12	7-5	58.3%	+5.13
84	Iowa State	Big 12	13	7-5-1	58.3%	+4.35
85	Miami (OH)	Mid-American	12	7-5	58.3%	+2.79
86	SMU	ACC	12	7-5	58.3%	+5.96
87	Troy	Sun Belt	12	7-5	58.3%	-0.96
88	Tulane	American Athletic	13	7-5-1	58.3%	+5.15
89	Utah	Big 12	12	7-5	58.3%	+2.29
90	Virginia	ACC	12	7-5	58.3%	-0.42
91	South Florida	American Athletic	10	6-4	60.0%	+7.80
92	Minnesota	Big Ten	14	8-5-1	61.5%	+8.21
93	North Texas	American Athletic	13	8-5	61.5%	+8.04
94	Ole Miss	SEC	16	10-6	62.5%	+3.09
95	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	11	7-4	63.6%	+2.82
96	Stanford	ACC	12	7-4-1	63.6%	+5.96
97	Miami	ACC	14	9-5	64.3%	+3.61
98	Notre Dame	FBS Independents	14	9-5	64.3%	+3.32
99	Pittsburgh	ACC	14	9-5	64.3%	+6.18
100	Florida International	Conference USA	6	4-2	66.7%	-2.42
101	Kennesaw State	Conference USA	12	8-4	66.7%	+4.75
102	Missouri	SEC	15	10-5	66.7%	+1.57
103	Missouri State	Conference USA	6	4-2	66.7%	+4.17
104	Temple	American Athletic	12	8-4	66.7%	+0.83
105	Toledo	Mid-American	12	8-4	66.7%	+7.29
106	Washington State	Pac-12	12	8-4	66.7%	+5.13
107	Arizona State	Big 12	13	9-4	69.2%	+1.42
108	Colorado	Big 12	13	9-4	69.2%	+1.65
109	Illinois	Big Ten	14	9-4-1	69.2%	+4.82
110	Jacksonville State	Conference USA	13	9-4	69.2%	+7.62
111	Texas Tech	Big 12	14	9-4-1	69.2%	+4.21
112	USC	Big Ten	13	9-4	69.2%	+5.54
113	Washington	Big Ten	13	9-4	69.2%	+6.81
114	Georgia Tech	ACC	11	7-3-1	70.0%	+2.14
115	Boise State	Mountain West	14	10-4	71.4%	+2.32
116	Vanderbilt	SEC	14	10-4	71.4%	+7.39
117	BYU	Big 12	11	8-3	72.7%	+9.68
118	Central Michigan	Mid-American	11	8-3	72.7%	+6.14
119	Eastern Michigan	Mid-American	12	8-3-1	72.7%	-1.71
120	Louisiana Tech	Conference USA	11	8-3	72.7%	+9.36
121	San Diego State	Mountain West	11	8-3	72.7%	+9.41
122	Western Michigan	Mid-American	11	8-3	72.7%	+7.09
123	Indiana	Big Ten	15	11-4	73.3%	+14.53
124	Ohio State	Big Ten	16	11-4-1	73.3%	+3.97
125	Marshall	Sun Belt	12	9-3	75.0%	+5.71
126	Ohio	Mid-American	12	9-3	75.0%	+5.96
127	UConn	FBS Independents	13	9-3-1	75.0%	+11.65
128	Western Kentucky	Conference USA	12	9-3	75.0%	+2.29
129	UTSA	American Athletic	13	10-3	76.9%	+11.27
130	Alabama	SEC	14	11-3	78.6%	+6.64
131	Ball State	Mid-American	10	8-2	80.0%	+4.90
132	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	12	8-2-2	80.0%	+1.25
133	Hawai'i	Mountain West	15	12-2-1	85.7%	+8.23
134	Utah State	Mountain West	11	10-1	90.9%	+13.14

Methodology: Home field advantage measured by ATS (against the spread) performance. The spread equalizes talent differences, so consistent outperformance = genuine home field edge. Neutral-site games excluded. FCS opponents excluded. Minimum 6 home games required for the selected range. ATS Cover % excludes pushes from the denominator. Data: 2024–2025.