Home Field Advantage — ATS Analysis

Home Field Advantage — ATS Analysis | Punt and Rally

The gap between straight-up win rate and ATS cover rate reveals where Vegas underprices (or overprices) the home edge.

Overall Home ATS Home Underdogs Win Rate vs ATS Year-over-Year Trends Conference Breakdown

Last 10 Years (2016–2025) Last 5 Years (2021–2025) Last 2 Years (2024–2025) 2025

#	Team	Conf	Games	SU Win %	ATS %	ATS Edge ▲	Avg Spread	Avg Margin vs Spread
1	Michigan State	Big Ten	13	53.8%	15.4%	-34.6	-4.9	-8.62
2	North Carolina	ACC	13	38.5%	15.4%	-34.6	-5.5	-6.42
3	Georgia State	Sun Belt	12	25.0%	16.7%	-33.3	0.8	-7.33
4	Northern Illinois	Mid-American	12	50.0%	18.2%	-31.8	-9.1	-5.25
5	Air Force	Mountain West	12	41.7%	25.0%	-25.0	-2.5	-2.17
6	Arkansas	SEC	12	33.3%	25.0%	-25.0	-3.8	-8.50
7	Charlotte	American Athletic	12	33.3%	25.0%	-25.0	6.7	-7.13
8	Liberty	Conference USA	12	66.7%	25.0%	-25.0	-10.7	-3.63
9	UCLA	Big Ten	12	33.3%	25.0%	-25.0	4.6	-7.13
10	Texas A&M	SEC	15	80.0%	26.7%	-23.3	-18.2	-2.43
11	Army	American Athletic	11	72.7%	27.3%	-22.7	-10.8	+0.50
12	UTEP	Conference USA	11	27.3%	27.3%	-22.7	-0.6	-3.32
13	Clemson	ACC	14	57.1%	28.6%	-21.4	-17.2	-5.54
14	Georgia	SEC	13	92.3%	30.8%	-19.2	-26.2	-5.38
15	Oklahoma State	Big 12	13	23.1%	30.8%	-19.2	3.4	-4.15
16	Purdue	Big Ten	13	23.1%	30.8%	-19.2	7.0	-6.27
17	Auburn	SEC	15	46.7%	33.3%	-16.7	-14.3	-3.03
18	Bowling Green	Mid-American	12	50.0%	33.3%	-16.7	-6.5	-4.96
19	Massachusetts	Mid-American	12	16.7%	33.3%	-16.7	4.0	-9.38
20	Nevada	Mountain West	13	30.8%	33.3%	-16.7	3.5	+1.50
21	Syracuse	ACC	13	61.5%	33.3%	-16.7	-6.2	-4.54
22	UAB	American Athletic	12	50.0%	33.3%	-16.7	3.5	+0.42
23	LSU	SEC	14	85.7%	35.7%	-14.3	-16.3	-6.64
24	Louisville	ACC	14	64.3%	35.7%	-14.3	-15.5	+1.82
25	Maryland	Big Ten	14	42.9%	35.7%	-14.3	-4.9	-5.25
26	Michigan	Big Ten	14	78.6%	35.7%	-14.3	-10.0	+0.18
27	Oregon State	Pac-12	14	42.9%	35.7%	-14.3	-2.9	-4.86
28	Wisconsin	Big Ten	14	50.0%	35.7%	-14.3	-1.7	-2.57
29	App State	Sun Belt	11	63.6%	36.4%	-13.6	-7.9	-5.59
30	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	11	18.2%	36.4%	-13.6	1.1	-10.95
31	California	ACC	13	61.5%	38.5%	-11.5	-7.9	-1.27
32	San José State	Mountain West	13	61.5%	38.5%	-11.5	-4.0	-3.85
33	Virginia Tech	ACC	13	46.2%	38.5%	-11.5	-5.1	-3.50
34	Kent State	Mid-American	10	30.0%	40.0%	-10.0	6.2	+0.10
35	Penn State	Big Ten	15	73.3%	40.0%	-10.0	-22.2	-1.40
36	Kansas State	Big 12	12	75.0%	41.7%	-8.3	-10.9	-1.46
37	Old Dominion	Sun Belt	12	66.7%	41.7%	-8.3	-6.8	+6.25
38	South Alabama	Sun Belt	12	41.7%	41.7%	-8.3	-8.5	-0.88
39	Texas State	Sun Belt	12	58.3%	41.7%	-8.3	-12.5	+1.46
40	Tulsa	American Athletic	12	33.3%	41.7%	-8.3	3.3	-4.67
41	UNLV	Mountain West	12	75.0%	41.7%	-8.3	-10.9	+4.38
42	Arizona	Big 12	14	64.3%	42.9%	-7.1	-10.9	-2.86
43	Colorado State	Mountain West	14	57.1%	42.9%	-7.1	-5.4	-5.57
44	Kansas	Big 12	7	57.1%	42.9%	-7.1	-13.6	-3.14
45	Tennessee	SEC	14	78.6%	42.9%	-7.1	-22.5	+0.89
46	UCF	Big 12	14	57.1%	42.9%	-7.1	-12.3	+1.07
47	Louisiana	Sun Belt	12	58.3%	45.5%	-4.5	-6.3	-2.25
48	Navy	American Athletic	11	90.9%	45.5%	-4.5	-12.6	+0.91
49	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	11	54.5%	45.5%	-4.5	2.6	+3.23
50	Baylor	Big 12	13	61.5%	46.2%	-3.8	-8.8	+0.19
51	Cincinnati	Big 12	13	61.5%	46.2%	-3.8	-10.2	+1.42
52	NC State	ACC	14	71.4%	46.2%	-3.8	-10.0	+0.29
53	Rice	American Athletic	13	53.8%	46.2%	-3.8	0.1	+0.65
54	Wake Forest	ACC	13	38.5%	46.2%	-3.8	1.7	+0.81
55	West Virginia	Big 12	13	46.2%	46.2%	-3.8	-0.6	-5.12
56	Oklahoma	SEC	15	73.3%	46.7%	-3.3	-14.6	-2.03
57	Buffalo	Mid-American	13	53.8%	50.0%	+0.0	-5.5	+2.00
58	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	12	58.3%	50.0%	+0.0	-0.5	-3.63
59	Delaware	Conference USA	6	83.3%	50.0%	+0.0	-5.5	+3.17
60	Duke	ACC	12	66.7%	50.0%	+0.0	-6.5	-2.92
61	Florida Atlantic	American Athletic	12	41.7%	50.0%	+0.0	-2.8	-2.50
62	Fresno State	Mountain West	12	66.7%	50.0%	+0.0	-9.2	+3.38
63	Houston	Big 12	12	50.0%	50.0%	+0.0	0.7	+0.08
64	New Mexico State	Conference USA	12	41.7%	50.0%	+0.0	3.8	+4.33
65	Rutgers	Big Ten	14	57.1%	50.0%	+0.0	-7.4	-2.39
66	South Carolina	SEC	14	57.1%	50.0%	+0.0	-10.0	-1.32
67	TCU	Big 12	12	75.0%	50.0%	+0.0	-13.8	-1.25
68	Wyoming	Mountain West	12	33.3%	50.0%	+0.0	2.9	+2.33
69	Kentucky	SEC	15	46.7%	53.3%	+3.3	-7.3	-0.73
70	Florida	SEC	13	69.2%	53.8%	+3.8	-5.9	+3.31
71	Iowa	Big Ten	13	76.9%	53.8%	+3.8	-10.8	+4.77
72	James Madison	Sun Belt	13	92.3%	53.8%	+3.8	-17.6	+6.73
73	Memphis	American Athletic	13	84.6%	53.8%	+3.8	-14.0	+0.81
74	Nebraska	Big Ten	14	64.3%	53.8%	+3.8	-12.9	+1.43
75	Southern Miss	Sun Belt	13	38.5%	53.8%	+3.8	2.3	-1.96
76	Akron	Mid-American	11	54.5%	54.5%	+4.5	1.0	+6.27
77	New Mexico	Mountain West	11	72.7%	54.5%	+4.5	-4.2	+0.41
78	Boston College	ACC	14	50.0%	57.1%	+7.1	-0.8	+2.82
79	Florida State	ACC	14	50.0%	57.1%	+7.1	-9.3	+1.11
80	Mississippi State	SEC	14	35.7%	57.1%	+7.1	-2.8	-1.86
81	Oregon	Big Ten	14	92.9%	57.1%	+7.1	-20.6	+1.82
82	Texas	SEC	14	92.9%	57.1%	+7.1	-24.3	+0.68
83	East Carolina	American Athletic	12	75.0%	58.3%	+8.3	-10.5	+5.13
84	Iowa State	Big 12	13	76.9%	58.3%	+8.3	-10.5	+4.35
85	Miami (OH)	Mid-American	12	75.0%	58.3%	+8.3	-8.6	+2.79
86	SMU	ACC	12	83.3%	58.3%	+8.3	-11.8	+5.96
87	Troy	Sun Belt	12	58.3%	58.3%	+8.3	-5.6	-0.96
88	Tulane	American Athletic	13	84.6%	58.3%	+8.3	-11.9	+5.15
89	Utah	Big 12	12	58.3%	58.3%	+8.3	-12.7	+2.29
90	Virginia	ACC	12	58.3%	58.3%	+8.3	-6.3	-0.42
91	South Florida	American Athletic	10	80.0%	60.0%	+10.0	-12.9	+7.80
92	Minnesota	Big Ten	14	78.6%	61.5%	+11.5	-6.6	+8.21
93	North Texas	American Athletic	13	69.2%	61.5%	+11.5	-8.0	+8.04
94	Ole Miss	SEC	16	93.8%	62.5%	+12.5	-22.8	+3.09
95	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	11	63.6%	63.6%	+13.6	1.1	+2.82
96	Stanford	ACC	12	50.0%	63.6%	+13.6	8.6	+5.96
97	Miami	ACC	14	92.9%	64.3%	+14.3	-23.5	+3.61
98	Notre Dame	FBS Independents	14	85.7%	64.3%	+14.3	-20.9	+3.32
99	Pittsburgh	ACC	14	64.3%	64.3%	+14.3	-7.5	+6.18
100	Florida International	Conference USA	6	66.7%	66.7%	+16.7	-4.9	-2.42
101	Kennesaw State	Conference USA	12	66.7%	66.7%	+16.7	4.7	+4.75
102	Missouri	SEC	15	86.7%	66.7%	+16.7	-16.2	+1.57
103	Missouri State	Conference USA	6	50.0%	66.7%	+16.7	1.2	+4.17
104	Temple	American Athletic	12	41.7%	66.7%	+16.7	5.4	+0.83
105	Toledo	Mid-American	12	83.3%	66.7%	+16.7	-16.7	+7.29
106	Washington State	Pac-12	12	83.3%	66.7%	+16.7	-9.5	+5.13
107	Arizona State	Big 12	13	84.6%	69.2%	+19.2	-5.7	+1.42
108	Colorado	Big 12	13	61.5%	69.2%	+19.2	-4.1	+1.65
109	Illinois	Big Ten	14	85.7%	69.2%	+19.2	-10.8	+4.82
110	Jacksonville State	Conference USA	13	84.6%	69.2%	+19.2	-7.1	+7.62
111	Texas Tech	Big 12	14	85.7%	69.2%	+19.2	-19.4	+4.21
112	USC	Big Ten	13	84.6%	69.2%	+19.2	-14.0	+5.54
113	Washington	Big Ten	13	84.6%	69.2%	+19.2	-10.0	+6.81
114	Georgia Tech	ACC	11	90.9%	70.0%	+20.0	-15.0	+2.14
115	Boise State	Mountain West	14	92.9%	71.4%	+21.4	-18.9	+2.32
116	Vanderbilt	SEC	14	78.6%	71.4%	+21.4	-6.9	+7.39
117	BYU	Big 12	11	90.9%	72.7%	+22.7	-10.6	+9.68
118	Central Michigan	Mid-American	11	72.7%	72.7%	+22.7	-5.3	+6.14
119	Eastern Michigan	Mid-American	12	50.0%	72.7%	+22.7	-1.2	-1.71
120	Louisiana Tech	Conference USA	11	72.7%	72.7%	+22.7	-6.0	+9.36
121	San Diego State	Mountain West	11	63.6%	72.7%	+22.7	-0.5	+9.41
122	Western Michigan	Mid-American	11	81.8%	72.7%	+22.7	-5.9	+7.09
123	Indiana	Big Ten	15	100.0%	73.3%	+23.3	-23.4	+14.53
124	Ohio State	Big Ten	16	93.8%	73.3%	+23.3	-27.2	+3.97
125	Marshall	Sun Belt	12	75.0%	75.0%	+25.0	-5.6	+5.71
126	Ohio	Mid-American	12	100.0%	75.0%	+25.0	-12.1	+5.96
127	UConn	FBS Independents	13	92.3%	75.0%	+25.0	-9.0	+11.65
128	Western Kentucky	Conference USA	12	83.3%	75.0%	+25.0	-12.2	+2.29
129	UTSA	American Athletic	13	84.6%	76.9%	+26.9	-9.3	+11.27
130	Alabama	SEC	14	92.9%	78.6%	+28.6	-20.9	+6.64
131	Ball State	Mid-American	10	60.0%	80.0%	+30.0	5.9	+4.90
132	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	12	66.7%	80.0%	+30.0	-3.1	+1.25
133	Hawai'i	Mountain West	15	73.3%	85.7%	+35.7	-2.8	+8.23
134	Utah State	Mountain West	11	63.6%	90.9%	+40.9	0.3	+13.14

Methodology: Home field advantage measured by ATS (against the spread) performance. The spread equalizes talent differences, so consistent outperformance = genuine home field edge. Neutral-site games excluded. FCS opponents excluded. Minimum 6 home games required for the selected range. ATS Cover % excludes pushes from the denominator. Data: 2024–2025.