Home Field Advantage — ATS Analysis

Home Field Advantage — ATS Analysis | Punt and Rally

Teams ranked by ATS cover percentage at home. The spread equalizes talent, so consistently beating it = real home field advantage.

Overall Home ATS Home Underdogs Win Rate vs ATS Year-over-Year Trends Conference Breakdown

Last 10 Years (2016–2025) Last 5 Years (2021–2025) Last 2 Years (2024–2025) 2025

#	Team	Conf	Games	ATS Record	ATS % ▲	Avg Margin vs Spread
1	Northern Illinois	Mid-American	54	17-35-2	32.7%	-3.55
2	Bowling Green	Mid-American	54	18-36	33.3%	-3.99
3	Michigan State	Big Ten	64	22-41-1	34.9%	-5.33
4	UTEP	Conference USA	55	20-35	36.4%	-2.77
5	Akron	Mid-American	52	18-31-3	36.7%	-4.09
6	Georgia	SEC	60	22-37-1	37.3%	-1.84
7	Georgia State	Sun Belt	57	21-34-2	38.2%	-4.48
8	Massachusetts	Mid-American	52	20-32	38.5%	-3.66
9	Nebraska	Big Ten	66	25-39-2	39.1%	-2.87
10	Stanford	ACC	57	22-34-1	39.3%	-1.52
11	Tulsa	American Athletic	57	22-34-1	39.3%	-2.80
12	UCLA	Big Ten	62	24-37-1	39.3%	-2.96
13	Arkansas	SEC	64	25-37-2	40.3%	-6.15
14	Army	American Athletic	58	23-34-1	40.4%	-0.56
15	Charlotte	American Athletic	56	23-33	41.1%	-4.95
16	New Mexico	Mountain West	57	23-33-1	41.1%	-1.15
17	Marshall	Sun Belt	63	26-37	41.3%	-2.37
18	Purdue	Big Ten	63	26-37	41.3%	-2.00
19	Colorado State	Mountain West	56	23-32-1	41.8%	-3.27
20	North Carolina	ACC	62	26-36	41.9%	-1.95
21	TCU	Big 12	63	26-36-1	41.9%	-1.83
22	Texas State	Sun Belt	60	25-34-1	42.4%	-1.18
23	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	54	23-31	42.6%	+0.58
24	Cincinnati	Big 12	63	27-36	42.9%	-0.19
25	Wisconsin	Big Ten	64	27-36-1	42.9%	-2.06
26	Vanderbilt	SEC	65	28-37	43.1%	-1.66
27	Illinois	Big Ten	64	26-34-4	43.3%	-0.77
28	App State	Sun Belt	62	27-35	43.5%	-0.26
29	Old Dominion	Sun Belt	53	23-29-1	44.2%	+1.65
30	Florida International	Conference USA	54	24-30	44.4%	-2.66
31	Rice	American Athletic	57	25-31-1	44.6%	-1.32
32	UNLV	Mountain West	57	25-31-1	44.6%	-2.34
33	Clemson	ACC	68	30-37-1	44.8%	-1.58
34	Georgia Tech	ACC	59	26-32-1	44.8%	-3.42
35	Troy	Sun Belt	61	27-33-1	45.0%	-1.93
36	Baylor	Big 12	63	28-34-1	45.2%	-3.06
37	Houston	Big 12	57	26-31	45.6%	-0.65
38	Nevada	Mountain West	59	26-31-2	45.6%	-0.03
39	Tennessee	SEC	70	32-38	45.7%	-0.98
40	Florida Atlantic	American Athletic	62	27-32-3	45.8%	+0.52
41	Maryland	Big Ten	61	28-33	45.9%	-2.82
42	Florida State	ACC	64	29-34-1	46.0%	-1.95
43	Air Force	Mountain West	57	26-30-1	46.4%	+1.54
44	South Florida	American Athletic	58	27-31	46.6%	-1.23
45	East Carolina	American Athletic	61	28-32-1	46.7%	+1.14
46	Southern Miss	Sun Belt	61	28-32-1	46.7%	-2.20
47	Syracuse	ACC	63	28-32-3	46.7%	-0.13
48	Miami	ACC	66	31-35	47.0%	-1.61
49	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	55	25-28-2	47.2%	-2.59
50	Eastern Michigan	Mid-American	56	26-29-1	47.3%	-3.48
51	Virginia Tech	ACC	63	30-33	47.6%	-0.13
52	Ole Miss	SEC	70	32-35-3	47.8%	+0.33
53	Ball State	Mid-American	54	26-28	48.1%	-0.30
54	Boston College	ACC	63	30-32-1	48.4%	-0.56
55	Rutgers	Big Ten	65	31-33-1	48.4%	-2.52
56	San Diego State	Mountain West	62	30-32	48.4%	-1.86
57	South Carolina	SEC	68	32-34-2	48.5%	+0.62
58	Kansas	Big 12	56	27-28-1	49.1%	-0.67
59	Northwestern	Big Ten	55	26-27-2	49.1%	+0.44
60	Arizona	Big 12	62	30-31-1	49.2%	-1.04
61	Oklahoma State	Big 12	65	30-31-4	49.2%	-1.06
62	South Alabama	Sun Belt	60	29-30-1	49.2%	+0.42
63	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	57	28-28-1	50.0%	+0.75
64	Central Michigan	Mid-American	53	26-26-1	50.0%	-0.14
65	Kent State	Mid-American	47	23-23-1	50.0%	+0.13
66	Liberty	Conference USA	49	24-24-1	50.0%	-0.65
67	Louisville	ACC	64	32-32	50.0%	+2.50
68	Minnesota	Big Ten	66	32-32-2	50.0%	+1.39
69	San José State	Mountain West	56	27-27-2	50.0%	-1.37
70	UConn	FBS Independents	55	27-27-1	50.0%	-0.27
71	Auburn	SEC	71	36-35	50.7%	+0.50
72	Kentucky	SEC	71	36-35	50.7%	+0.09
73	Michigan	Big Ten	67	33-32-2	50.8%	+1.48
74	North Texas	American Athletic	61	30-29-2	50.8%	+2.54
75	Oregon	Big Ten	63	32-31	50.8%	+1.45
76	Texas A&M	SEC	68	33-32-3	50.8%	+0.10
77	UTSA	American Athletic	62	31-30-1	50.8%	+3.85
78	California	ACC	59	29-28-2	50.9%	+0.37
79	Navy	American Athletic	56	28-27-1	50.9%	+1.21
80	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	53	26-25-2	51.0%	-1.05
81	Memphis	American Athletic	67	34-32-1	51.5%	+1.73
82	Pittsburgh	ACC	67	34-32-1	51.5%	+1.19
83	Iowa	Big Ten	66	33-31-2	51.6%	+3.16
84	UCF	Big 12	65	33-31-1	51.6%	+1.85
85	Washington	Big Ten	64	32-30-2	51.6%	+1.77
86	LSU	SEC	67	34-31-2	52.3%	+0.87
87	USC	Big Ten	62	32-29-1	52.5%	-0.06
88	Louisiana	Sun Belt	58	30-27-1	52.6%	+1.06
89	Louisiana Tech	Conference USA	54	28-25-1	52.8%	+0.94
90	Miami (OH)	Mid-American	51	27-24	52.9%	+0.82
91	Mississippi State	SEC	68	35-31-2	53.0%	-0.40
92	Indiana	Big Ten	63	33-29-1	53.2%	+2.13
93	Toledo	Mid-American	58	31-27	53.4%	+1.76
94	Ohio	Mid-American	56	30-26	53.6%	+1.39
95	Fresno State	Mountain West	55	29-25-1	53.7%	+1.56
96	Western Michigan	Mid-American	54	29-25	53.7%	+0.81
97	Wake Forest	ACC	63	34-29	54.0%	+0.12
98	Duke	ACC	62	33-28-1	54.1%	-2.16
99	Florida	SEC	61	33-28	54.1%	+1.32
100	Hawai'i	Mountain West	64	33-28-3	54.1%	+0.54
101	Temple	American Athletic	61	33-28	54.1%	-0.02
102	Arizona State	Big 12	61	32-27-2	54.2%	-1.14
103	BYU	Big 12	57	31-26	54.4%	+1.01
104	Iowa State	Big 12	66	35-29-2	54.7%	+3.02
105	Oklahoma	SEC	64	35-29	54.7%	-0.04
106	Texas	SEC	62	33-27-2	55.0%	+1.40
107	New Mexico State	Conference USA	49	27-22	55.1%	+2.82
108	West Virginia	Big 12	61	32-26-3	55.2%	+0.41
109	Western Kentucky	Conference USA	58	32-26	55.2%	+0.33
110	Colorado	Big 12	58	31-25-2	55.4%	+0.09
111	Boise State	Mountain West	63	34-27-2	55.7%	-0.17
112	Oregon State	Pac-12	62	34-27-1	55.7%	+0.65
113	NC State	ACC	68	37-29-2	56.1%	+1.51
114	Penn State	Big Ten	69	37-29-3	56.1%	+1.99
115	Kansas State	Big 12	65	36-28-1	56.3%	+3.84
116	Notre Dame	FBS Independents	65	36-28-1	56.3%	+2.77
117	Virginia	ACC	64	36-27-1	57.1%	-0.98
118	Buffalo	Mid-American	56	31-23-2	57.4%	+1.62
119	Missouri	SEC	69	39-29-1	57.4%	+2.14
120	UAB	American Athletic	50	28-20-2	58.3%	+1.68
121	Texas Tech	Big 12	63	35-23-5	60.3%	+0.99
122	Utah	Big 12	60	35-23-2	60.3%	+3.08
123	Ohio State	Big Ten	68	40-26-2	60.6%	+4.46
124	Wyoming	Mountain West	58	35-22-1	61.4%	+3.74
125	Utah State	Mountain West	56	34-21-1	61.8%	+2.28
126	Tulane	American Athletic	64	39-24-1	61.9%	+4.18
127	SMU	ACC	59	36-22-1	62.1%	+4.01
128	Washington State	Pac-12	60	37-22-1	62.7%	+2.93
129	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	58	34-20-4	63.0%	+3.22
130	Alabama	SEC	68	43-24-1	64.2%	+1.76

Methodology: Home field advantage measured by ATS (against the spread) performance. The spread equalizes talent differences, so consistent outperformance = genuine home field edge. Neutral-site games excluded. FCS opponents excluded. Minimum 30 home games required for the selected range. ATS Cover % excludes pushes from the denominator. Data: 2016–2025.