Home Field Advantage — ATS Analysis

Home Field Advantage — ATS Analysis | Punt and Rally

The gap between straight-up win rate and ATS cover rate reveals where Vegas underprices (or overprices) the home edge.

Overall Home ATS Home Underdogs Win Rate vs ATS Year-over-Year Trends Conference Breakdown

Last 10 Years (2016–2025) Last 5 Years (2021–2025) Last 2 Years (2024–2025) 2025

#	Team	Conf	Games	SU Win %	ATS %	ATS Edge ▲	Avg Spread	Avg Margin vs Spread
1	Northern Illinois	Mid-American	54	50.0%	32.7%	-17.3	-6.0	-3.55
2	Bowling Green	Mid-American	54	38.9%	33.3%	-16.7	1.7	-3.99
3	Michigan State	Big Ten	64	57.8%	34.9%	-15.1	-5.5	-5.33
4	UTEP	Conference USA	55	32.7%	36.4%	-13.6	3.4	-2.77
5	Akron	Mid-American	52	36.5%	36.7%	-13.3	2.0	-4.09
6	Georgia	SEC	60	91.7%	37.3%	-12.7	-25.6	-1.84
7	Georgia State	Sun Belt	57	43.9%	38.2%	-11.8	-1.2	-4.48
8	Massachusetts	Mid-American	52	25.0%	38.5%	-11.5	6.5	-3.66
9	Nebraska	Big Ten	66	53.0%	39.1%	-10.9	-8.1	-2.87
10	Stanford	ACC	57	45.6%	39.3%	-10.7	0.9	-1.52
11	Tulsa	American Athletic	57	49.1%	39.3%	-10.7	-2.6	-2.80
12	UCLA	Big Ten	62	53.2%	39.3%	-10.7	-4.4	-2.96
13	Arkansas	SEC	64	45.3%	40.3%	-9.7	-4.5	-6.15
14	Army	American Athletic	58	75.9%	40.4%	-9.6	-14.1	-0.56
15	Charlotte	American Athletic	56	39.3%	41.1%	-8.9	2.1	-4.95
16	New Mexico	Mountain West	57	45.6%	41.1%	-8.9	0.8	-1.15
17	Marshall	Sun Belt	63	68.3%	41.3%	-8.7	-10.5	-2.37
18	Purdue	Big Ten	63	42.9%	41.3%	-8.7	0.4	-2.00
19	Colorado State	Mountain West	56	50.0%	41.8%	-8.2	-3.1	-3.27
20	North Carolina	ACC	62	54.8%	41.9%	-8.1	-8.7	-1.95
21	TCU	Big 12	63	65.1%	41.9%	-8.1	-13.0	-1.83
22	Texas State	Sun Belt	60	43.3%	42.4%	-7.6	0.4	-1.18
23	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	54	50.0%	42.6%	-7.4	3.5	+0.58
24	Cincinnati	Big 12	63	68.3%	42.9%	-7.1	-10.8	-0.19
25	Wisconsin	Big Ten	64	70.3%	42.9%	-7.1	-13.4	-2.06
26	Vanderbilt	SEC	65	47.7%	43.1%	-6.9	1.9	-1.66
27	Illinois	Big Ten	64	50.0%	43.3%	-6.7	-1.2	-0.77
28	App State	Sun Belt	62	82.3%	43.5%	-6.5	-16.5	-0.26
29	Old Dominion	Sun Belt	53	56.6%	44.2%	-5.8	-1.8	+1.65
30	Florida International	Conference USA	54	48.1%	44.4%	-5.6	-0.7	-2.66
31	Rice	American Athletic	57	40.4%	44.6%	-5.4	2.4	-1.32
32	UNLV	Mountain West	57	49.1%	44.6%	-5.4	-3.0	-2.34
33	Clemson	ACC	68	86.8%	44.8%	-5.2	-24.3	-1.58
34	Georgia Tech	ACC	59	55.9%	44.8%	-5.2	-3.9	-3.42
35	Troy	Sun Belt	61	70.5%	45.0%	-5.0	-10.9	-1.93
36	Baylor	Big 12	63	55.6%	45.2%	-4.8	-8.9	-3.06
37	Houston	Big 12	57	61.4%	45.6%	-4.4	-7.4	-0.65
38	Nevada	Mountain West	59	50.8%	45.6%	-4.4	-1.0	-0.03
39	Tennessee	SEC	70	68.6%	45.7%	-4.3	-13.9	-0.98
40	Florida Atlantic	American Athletic	62	61.3%	45.8%	-4.2	-6.5	+0.52
41	Maryland	Big Ten	61	50.8%	45.9%	-4.1	-4.3	-2.82
42	Florida State	ACC	64	60.9%	46.0%	-4.0	-12.3	-1.95
43	Air Force	Mountain West	57	68.4%	46.4%	-3.6	-9.8	+1.54
44	South Florida	American Athletic	58	56.9%	46.6%	-3.4	-5.0	-1.23
45	East Carolina	American Athletic	61	47.5%	46.7%	-3.3	-1.3	+1.14
46	Southern Miss	Sun Belt	61	49.2%	46.7%	-3.3	-5.4	-2.20
47	Syracuse	ACC	63	55.6%	46.7%	-3.3	-3.1	-0.13
48	Miami	ACC	66	74.2%	47.0%	-3.0	-17.1	-1.61
49	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	55	63.6%	47.2%	-2.8	-5.4	-2.59
50	Eastern Michigan	Mid-American	56	55.4%	47.3%	-2.7	-4.6	-3.48
51	Virginia Tech	ACC	63	60.3%	47.6%	-2.4	-8.0	-0.13
52	Ole Miss	SEC	70	72.9%	47.8%	-2.2	-13.1	+0.33
53	Ball State	Mid-American	54	50.0%	48.1%	-1.9	-0.6	-0.30
54	Boston College	ACC	63	49.2%	48.4%	-1.6	-1.3	-0.56
55	Rutgers	Big Ten	65	36.9%	48.4%	-1.6	3.3	-2.52
56	San Diego State	Mountain West	62	67.7%	48.4%	-1.6	-8.1	-1.86
57	South Carolina	SEC	68	61.8%	48.5%	-1.5	-5.0	+0.62
58	Kansas	Big 12	56	37.5%	49.1%	-0.9	4.7	-0.67
59	Northwestern	Big Ten	55	54.5%	49.1%	-0.9	-1.8	+0.44
60	Arizona	Big 12	62	51.6%	49.2%	-0.8	-3.0	-1.04
61	Oklahoma State	Big 12	65	67.7%	49.2%	-0.8	-9.2	-1.06
62	South Alabama	Sun Belt	60	53.3%	49.2%	-0.8	-3.6	+0.42
63	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	57	61.4%	50.0%	+0.0	-4.5	+0.75
64	Central Michigan	Mid-American	53	62.3%	50.0%	+0.0	-6.1	-0.14
65	Kent State	Mid-American	47	44.7%	50.0%	+0.0	-0.6	+0.13
66	Liberty	Conference USA	49	79.6%	50.0%	+0.0	-12.9	-0.65
67	Louisville	ACC	64	65.6%	50.0%	+0.0	-10.1	+2.50
68	Minnesota	Big Ten	66	69.7%	50.0%	+0.0	-7.9	+1.39
69	San José State	Mountain West	56	58.9%	50.0%	+0.0	-1.9	-1.37
70	UConn	FBS Independents	55	45.5%	50.0%	+0.0	3.6	-0.27
71	Auburn	SEC	71	66.2%	50.7%	+0.7	-14.2	+0.50
72	Kentucky	SEC	71	64.8%	50.7%	+0.7	-8.6	+0.09
73	Michigan	Big Ten	67	86.6%	50.8%	+0.8	-18.5	+1.48
74	North Texas	American Athletic	61	65.6%	50.8%	+0.8	-5.5	+2.54
75	Oregon	Big Ten	63	88.9%	50.8%	+0.8	-18.8	+1.45
76	Texas A&M	SEC	68	76.5%	50.8%	+0.8	-15.8	+0.10
77	UTSA	American Athletic	62	72.6%	50.8%	+0.8	-6.7	+3.85
78	California	ACC	59	59.3%	50.9%	+0.9	-2.8	+0.37
79	Navy	American Athletic	56	66.1%	50.9%	+0.9	-3.2	+1.21
80	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	53	54.7%	51.0%	+1.0	-5.5	-1.05
81	Memphis	American Athletic	67	82.1%	51.5%	+1.5	-12.4	+1.73
82	Pittsburgh	ACC	67	67.2%	51.5%	+1.5	-7.5	+1.19
83	Iowa	Big Ten	66	74.2%	51.6%	+1.6	-9.1	+3.16
84	UCF	Big 12	65	75.4%	51.6%	+1.6	-15.8	+1.85
85	Washington	Big Ten	64	81.3%	51.6%	+1.6	-15.0	+1.77
86	LSU	SEC	67	82.1%	52.3%	+2.3	-15.3	+0.87
87	USC	Big Ten	62	75.8%	52.5%	+2.5	-12.6	-0.06
88	Louisiana	Sun Belt	58	70.7%	52.6%	+2.6	-8.6	+1.06
89	Louisiana Tech	Conference USA	54	66.7%	52.8%	+2.8	-8.5	+0.94
90	Miami (OH)	Mid-American	51	70.6%	52.9%	+2.9	-8.9	+0.82
91	Mississippi State	SEC	68	57.4%	53.0%	+3.0	-8.0	-0.40
92	Indiana	Big Ten	63	61.9%	53.2%	+3.2	-7.1	+2.13
93	Toledo	Mid-American	58	81.0%	53.4%	+3.4	-16.5	+1.76
94	Ohio	Mid-American	56	76.8%	53.6%	+3.6	-11.3	+1.39
95	Fresno State	Mountain West	55	67.3%	53.7%	+3.7	-11.7	+1.56
96	Western Michigan	Mid-American	54	70.4%	53.7%	+3.7	-9.4	+0.81
97	Wake Forest	ACC	63	60.3%	54.0%	+4.0	-5.6	+0.12
98	Duke	ACC	62	58.1%	54.1%	+4.1	-5.2	-2.16
99	Florida	SEC	61	75.4%	54.1%	+4.1	-14.0	+1.32
100	Hawai'i	Mountain West	64	60.9%	54.1%	+4.1	-0.7	+0.54
101	Temple	American Athletic	61	54.1%	54.1%	+4.1	-0.5	-0.02
102	Arizona State	Big 12	61	65.6%	54.2%	+4.2	-4.7	-1.14
103	BYU	Big 12	57	71.9%	54.4%	+4.4	-10.1	+1.01
104	Iowa State	Big 12	66	63.6%	54.7%	+4.7	-7.3	+3.02
105	Oklahoma	SEC	64	85.9%	54.7%	+4.7	-21.1	-0.04
106	Texas	SEC	62	77.4%	55.0%	+5.0	-14.5	+1.40
107	New Mexico State	Conference USA	49	53.1%	55.1%	+5.1	0.6	+2.82
108	West Virginia	Big 12	61	65.6%	55.2%	+5.2	-7.6	+0.41
109	Western Kentucky	Conference USA	58	67.2%	55.2%	+5.2	-10.6	+0.33
110	Colorado	Big 12	58	55.2%	55.4%	+5.4	-2.2	+0.09
111	Boise State	Mountain West	63	82.5%	55.7%	+5.7	-15.1	-0.17
112	Oregon State	Pac-12	62	51.6%	55.7%	+5.7	-0.8	+0.65
113	NC State	ACC	68	76.5%	56.1%	+6.1	-9.6	+1.51
114	Penn State	Big Ten	69	81.2%	56.1%	+6.1	-17.8	+1.99
115	Kansas State	Big 12	65	69.2%	56.3%	+6.3	-8.1	+3.84
116	Notre Dame	FBS Independents	65	83.1%	56.3%	+6.3	-16.7	+2.77
117	Virginia	ACC	64	59.4%	57.1%	+7.1	-5.3	-0.98
118	Buffalo	Mid-American	56	55.4%	57.4%	+7.4	-5.2	+1.62
119	Missouri	SEC	69	72.5%	57.4%	+7.4	-9.8	+2.14
120	UAB	American Athletic	50	76.0%	58.3%	+8.3	-7.4	+1.68
121	Texas Tech	Big 12	63	63.5%	60.3%	+10.3	-9.3	+0.99
122	Utah	Big 12	60	78.3%	60.3%	+10.3	-13.1	+3.08
123	Ohio State	Big Ten	68	94.1%	60.6%	+10.6	-26.1	+4.46
124	Wyoming	Mountain West	58	65.5%	61.4%	+11.4	-1.5	+3.74
125	Utah State	Mountain West	56	58.9%	61.8%	+11.8	-4.5	+2.28
126	Tulane	American Athletic	64	67.2%	61.9%	+11.9	-7.7	+4.18
127	SMU	ACC	59	76.3%	62.1%	+12.1	-9.6	+4.01
128	Washington State	Pac-12	60	75.0%	62.7%	+12.7	-10.8	+2.93
129	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	58	67.2%	63.0%	+13.0	-4.8	+3.22
130	Alabama	SEC	68	95.6%	64.2%	+14.2	-29.0	+1.76

Methodology: Home field advantage measured by ATS (against the spread) performance. The spread equalizes talent differences, so consistent outperformance = genuine home field edge. Neutral-site games excluded. FCS opponents excluded. Minimum 30 home games required for the selected range. ATS Cover % excludes pushes from the denominator. Data: 2016–2025.