Home Field Advantage — ATS Analysis

Home Field Advantage — ATS Analysis | Punt and Rally

The gap between straight-up win rate and ATS cover rate reveals where Vegas underprices (or overprices) the home edge.

Overall Home ATS Home Underdogs Win Rate vs ATS Year-over-Year Trends Conference Breakdown

Last 10 Years (2016–2025) Last 5 Years (2021–2025) Last 2 Years (2024–2025) 2025

#	Team	Conf	Games	SU Win %	ATS %	ATS Edge ▲	Avg Spread	Avg Margin vs Spread
1	Army	American Athletic	5	40.0%	0.0%	-50.0	-9.4	-8.00
2	Louisville	ACC	8	62.5%	12.5%	-37.5	-16.5	-1.63
3	Auburn	SEC	7	42.9%	14.3%	-35.7	-13.6	-3.57
4	Baylor	Big 12	7	42.9%	14.3%	-35.7	-7.6	-5.93
5	Clemson	ACC	7	42.9%	14.3%	-35.7	-14.7	-10.71
6	Air Force	Mountain West	6	33.3%	16.7%	-33.3	-4.4	-4.75
7	Arkansas	SEC	6	16.7%	16.7%	-33.3	-6.0	-10.50
8	Charlotte	American Athletic	6	16.7%	16.7%	-33.3	11.2	-7.33
9	Georgia State	Sun Belt	6	16.7%	16.7%	-33.3	3.4	-5.42
10	Liberty	Conference USA	6	50.0%	16.7%	-33.3	-6.2	-2.00
11	Massachusetts	Mid-American	6	0.0%	16.7%	-33.3	6.7	-15.17
12	Michigan State	Big Ten	6	50.0%	16.7%	-33.3	-5.3	-8.33
13	Nevada	Mountain West	6	33.3%	16.7%	-33.3	4.6	-0.92
14	Northern Illinois	Mid-American	6	33.3%	16.7%	-33.3	-2.0	-5.00
15	UAB	American Athletic	6	50.0%	16.7%	-33.3	5.9	-3.58
16	UCLA	Big Ten	6	33.3%	16.7%	-33.3	3.5	-11.67
17	UTEP	Conference USA	6	16.7%	16.7%	-33.3	-1.8	-4.58
18	Syracuse	ACC	6	33.3%	20.0%	-30.0	-5.0	-12.00
19	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	5	40.0%	20.0%	-30.0	-1.5	-5.30
20	Texas A&M	SEC	8	87.5%	25.0%	-25.0	-20.1	-4.25
21	Colorado State	Mountain West	7	28.6%	28.6%	-21.4	-3.4	-10.71
22	LSU	SEC	7	85.7%	28.6%	-21.4	-18.1	-9.21
23	Penn State	Big Ten	7	57.1%	28.6%	-21.4	-21.9	-3.00
24	Rice	American Athletic	7	42.9%	28.6%	-21.4	3.4	-4.79
25	Tennessee	SEC	7	57.1%	28.6%	-21.4	-18.9	-5.57
26	Virginia Tech	ACC	7	28.6%	28.6%	-21.4	-3.6	-9.21
27	App State	Sun Belt	6	50.0%	33.3%	-16.7	-7.6	-7.25
28	Bowling Green	Mid-American	6	50.0%	33.3%	-16.7	-2.1	-4.58
29	Buffalo	Mid-American	7	28.6%	33.3%	-16.7	-7.1	-6.64
30	California	ACC	6	66.7%	33.3%	-16.7	-4.3	-1.42
31	Duke	ACC	6	50.0%	33.3%	-16.7	-8.1	-7.25
32	Kansas State	Big 12	6	66.7%	33.3%	-16.7	-9.3	-7.00
33	Michigan	Big Ten	6	83.3%	33.3%	-16.7	-16.3	-0.42
34	Navy	American Athletic	6	100.0%	33.3%	-16.7	-16.1	-2.25
35	North Carolina	ACC	6	33.3%	33.3%	-16.7	0.8	-4.25
36	San José State	Mountain West	6	50.0%	33.3%	-16.7	-5.4	-9.08
37	South Alabama	Sun Belt	6	33.3%	33.3%	-16.7	-6.5	-7.50
38	Texas State	Sun Belt	6	66.7%	33.3%	-16.7	-12.8	-3.08
39	UNLV	Mountain West	6	83.3%	33.3%	-16.7	-7.6	-0.42
40	Oklahoma	SEC	8	75.0%	37.5%	-12.5	-14.8	-3.44
41	Arizona State	Big 12	7	71.4%	42.9%	-7.1	-8.3	-5.00
42	Boston College	ACC	7	14.3%	42.9%	-7.1	4.9	-1.29
43	Cincinnati	Big 12	7	71.4%	42.9%	-7.1	-12.7	+2.14
44	Georgia	SEC	7	85.7%	42.9%	-7.1	-23.1	-2.71
45	Kansas	Big 12	7	57.1%	42.9%	-7.1	-13.6	-3.14
46	Maryland	Big Ten	7	42.9%	42.9%	-7.1	-2.1	-3.07
47	Minnesota	Big Ten	7	100.0%	42.9%	-7.1	-9.4	+7.79
48	Nebraska	Big Ten	7	57.1%	42.9%	-7.1	-13.0	+2.29
49	Oklahoma State	Big 12	7	14.3%	42.9%	-7.1	7.9	-2.64
50	Oregon State	Pac-12	7	28.6%	42.9%	-7.1	-4.2	-7.79
51	Purdue	Big Ten	7	28.6%	42.9%	-7.1	6.8	-2.36
52	South Carolina	SEC	7	42.9%	42.9%	-7.1	-8.9	-4.57
53	UCF	Big 12	7	71.4%	42.9%	-7.1	-11.3	+5.57
54	Wisconsin	Big Ten	7	57.1%	42.9%	-7.1	-1.1	-3.79
55	Akron	Mid-American	6	50.0%	50.0%	+0.0	-0.6	+8.42
56	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	6	66.7%	50.0%	+0.0	1.0	-3.83
57	Delaware	Conference USA	6	83.3%	50.0%	+0.0	-5.5	+3.17
58	East Carolina	American Athletic	6	83.3%	50.0%	+0.0	-12.7	+3.67
59	Florida	SEC	6	66.7%	50.0%	+0.0	-10.8	-0.50
60	Fresno State	Mountain West	6	66.7%	50.0%	+0.0	-9.0	+2.17
61	Houston	Big 12	6	50.0%	50.0%	+0.0	-4.3	-2.75
62	Louisiana	Sun Belt	6	66.7%	50.0%	+0.0	-5.6	-2.42
63	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	6	16.7%	50.0%	+0.0	-2.2	-10.67
64	New Mexico	Mountain West	6	100.0%	50.0%	+0.0	-10.8	-1.17
65	New Mexico State	Conference USA	6	50.0%	50.0%	+0.0	-0.8	+4.75
66	Old Dominion	Sun Belt	6	100.0%	50.0%	+0.0	-17.7	+8.17
67	SMU	ACC	6	83.3%	50.0%	+0.0	-14.4	+2.42
68	Temple	American Athletic	6	33.3%	50.0%	+0.0	4.2	-2.67
69	Texas	SEC	6	100.0%	50.0%	+0.0	-21.3	+0.58
70	Tulane	American Athletic	7	100.0%	50.0%	+0.0	-10.2	+2.93
71	Tulsa	American Athletic	6	33.3%	50.0%	+0.0	2.9	+3.08
72	Wyoming	Mountain West	6	50.0%	50.0%	+0.0	0.8	+3.17
73	Colorado	Big 12	7	42.9%	57.1%	+7.1	-1.6	-4.79
74	Indiana	Big Ten	7	100.0%	57.1%	+7.1	-27.9	+12.86
75	Iowa	Big Ten	7	71.4%	57.1%	+7.1	-12.8	+1.79
76	James Madison	Sun Belt	7	100.0%	57.1%	+7.1	-17.6	+7.43
77	Kentucky	SEC	7	57.1%	57.1%	+7.1	-3.8	+5.36
78	Notre Dame	FBS Independents	7	85.7%	57.1%	+7.1	-22.1	+4.64
79	Pittsburgh	ACC	7	57.1%	57.1%	+7.1	-7.3	+4.14
80	Rutgers	Big Ten	7	57.1%	57.1%	+7.1	-5.5	-0.36
81	Southern Miss	Sun Belt	7	57.1%	57.1%	+7.1	-3.9	-0.29
82	USC	Big Ten	7	100.0%	57.1%	+7.1	-18.1	+7.00
83	Washington	Big Ten	7	71.4%	57.1%	+7.1	-8.6	+8.43
84	Iowa State	Big 12	6	66.7%	60.0%	+10.0	-6.1	+7.42
85	Kent State	Mid-American	5	60.0%	60.0%	+10.0	6.3	+11.90
86	Miami	ACC	8	87.5%	62.5%	+12.5	-20.3	+4.13
87	Missouri	SEC	8	75.0%	62.5%	+12.5	-15.4	+3.50
88	Oregon	Big Ten	8	87.5%	62.5%	+12.5	-23.5	+2.88
89	Florida Atlantic	American Athletic	6	50.0%	66.7%	+16.7	-0.6	+1.08
90	Florida International	Conference USA	6	66.7%	66.7%	+16.7	-4.9	-2.42
91	Georgia Tech	ACC	6	83.3%	66.7%	+16.7	-15.6	+0.58
92	Jacksonville State	Conference USA	6	83.3%	66.7%	+16.7	-3.1	+7.92
93	Marshall	Sun Belt	6	50.0%	66.7%	+16.7	-0.2	+6.50
94	Memphis	American Athletic	6	66.7%	66.7%	+16.7	-7.9	+2.08
95	Miami (OH)	Mid-American	6	66.7%	66.7%	+16.7	-7.5	+2.17
96	Missouri State	Conference USA	6	50.0%	66.7%	+16.7	1.2	+4.17
97	Ohio	Mid-American	6	100.0%	66.7%	+16.7	-13.7	+2.67
98	Ole Miss	SEC	9	100.0%	66.7%	+16.7	-20.3	+3.17
99	Stanford	ACC	6	66.7%	66.7%	+16.7	13.2	+12.33
100	TCU	Big 12	6	83.3%	66.7%	+16.7	-12.8	-0.92
101	Troy	Sun Belt	6	66.7%	66.7%	+16.7	-5.6	-3.08
102	UTSA	American Athletic	6	66.7%	66.7%	+16.7	-5.8	+14.50
103	Utah	Big 12	6	83.3%	66.7%	+16.7	-16.7	+7.17
104	Washington State	Pac-12	6	83.3%	66.7%	+16.7	-3.3	+6.83
105	West Virginia	Big 12	6	50.0%	66.7%	+16.7	2.4	-3.08
106	Arizona	Big 12	7	85.7%	71.4%	+21.4	-10.6	+8.64
107	Florida State	ACC	7	71.4%	71.4%	+21.4	-15.4	+11.79
108	Mississippi State	SEC	7	42.9%	71.4%	+21.4	-3.9	+2.14
109	NC State	ACC	7	85.7%	71.4%	+21.4	-9.1	+5.21
110	Virginia	ACC	7	85.7%	71.4%	+21.4	-12.2	+6.50
111	Wake Forest	ACC	7	71.4%	71.4%	+21.4	-4.1	+6.93
112	Ball State	Mid-American	5	80.0%	80.0%	+30.0	2.6	+5.40
113	Central Michigan	Mid-American	5	80.0%	80.0%	+30.0	-7.9	+7.30
114	Eastern Michigan	Mid-American	6	50.0%	80.0%	+30.0	0.0	-1.17
115	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	6	66.7%	80.0%	+30.0	-3.6	-0.42
116	Northwestern	Big Ten	5	80.0%	80.0%	+30.0	-5.3	+9.10
117	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	6	50.0%	83.3%	+33.3	4.2	+6.00
118	BYU	Big 12	6	100.0%	83.3%	+33.3	-16.7	+10.17
119	Illinois	Big Ten	7	85.7%	83.3%	+33.3	-12.9	+4.00
120	Kennesaw State	Conference USA	6	100.0%	83.3%	+33.3	-5.8	+7.08
121	Louisiana Tech	Conference USA	6	83.3%	83.3%	+33.3	-8.0	+11.17
122	South Florida	American Athletic	6	100.0%	83.3%	+33.3	-19.8	+16.83
123	Toledo	Mid-American	6	100.0%	83.3%	+33.3	-22.2	+16.00
124	UConn	FBS Independents	6	100.0%	83.3%	+33.3	-11.3	+9.58
125	Western Kentucky	Conference USA	6	83.3%	83.3%	+33.3	-12.7	+3.50
126	Western Michigan	Mid-American	6	83.3%	83.3%	+33.3	0.2	+13.50
127	Alabama	SEC	7	85.7%	85.7%	+35.7	-20.1	+7.71
128	Boise State	Mountain West	7	85.7%	85.7%	+35.7	-16.9	+2.14
129	North Texas	American Athletic	7	85.7%	85.7%	+35.7	-11.5	+12.21
130	Texas Tech	Big 12	7	100.0%	85.7%	+35.7	-30.9	+8.21
131	Vanderbilt	SEC	7	100.0%	85.7%	+35.7	-15.1	+7.71
132	Hawai'i	Mountain West	8	87.5%	87.5%	+37.5	-5.4	+8.56
133	Ohio State	Big Ten	7	100.0%	100.0%	+50.0	-26.9	+7.21
134	San Diego State	Mountain West	6	100.0%	100.0%	+50.0	-5.3	+19.08
135	Utah State	Mountain West	6	83.3%	100.0%	+50.0	-5.8	+13.08

Methodology: Home field advantage measured by ATS (against the spread) performance. The spread equalizes talent differences, so consistent outperformance = genuine home field edge. Neutral-site games excluded. FCS opponents excluded. Minimum 3 home games required for the selected range. ATS Cover % excludes pushes from the denominator. Data: 2025–2025.