Texas State at Arizona State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Texas State logo Texas State Bobcats at Arizona State Sun DevilsArizona State logo
Saturday, September 13th 2025 (10:30 PM EDT)
Arizona State -18.5 (61.5) (-650)  Open: -14.5 | 59.5
Arizona State 34 - Texas State: 15

 
Bobcats (3 - 5) (2 - 6 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (15 - 10)
Avg Score : 34 - 34 (31 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 6.3 (#87)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
Temp: 91° (15% Hum)
TXST 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Arizona State -12.5  (SP+ ASU -12)

Projected Score: TXST: 25 - ASU: 38 (63)
ASU Win prob: 91% | Cover: 44%
TXST Travel: 858 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Sun Devils (6 - 3) (5 - 4 - 0)
Coach Kenny Dillingham (14 - 11)
Avg Score : 25 - 24 (28 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.2 - 3.8 (#37)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 2) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 1)
 
Texas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas State vs Eastern Michigan-14.058.5W 52 - 27OY
Sat 9/6 Texas State at UTSA+4.564.5W 43 - 36OY
Sat 9/13 Texas State at Arizona State+18.561.5L 15 - 34UN
Sat 9/20 Texas State vs Nicholls-32.557.0W 35 - 3UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas State at Arkansas State-14.063.5L 30 - 31UN
Sat 10/11 Texas State vs Troy-7.553.5L 41 - 48ON
Sat 10/18 Texas State at Marshall-3.065.5L 37 - 40ON
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28 Texas State vs James Madison+7.555.5L 20 - 52ON
Sat 11/8 Texas State at Louisiana-3.562.5
Sat 11/15 Texas State at Southern Miss+5
Sat 11/22 Texas State vs UL Monroe-13.5
Sat 11/29 Texas State vs South Alabama-11.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule
Arizona State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arizona State vs Northern Arizona-29.552.5W 38 - 19ON
Sat 9/6 Arizona State at Mississippi State-6.058.5L 20 - 24UN
Sat 9/13 Arizona State vs Texas State-18.561.5W 34 - 15UY
Sat 9/20 Arizona State at Baylor+3.060.5W 27 - 24UY
Fri 9/26 Arizona State vs TCU-2.554.5W 27 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Arizona State at Utah+9.544.5L 10 - 42ON
Sat 10/18 Arizona State vs Texas Tech+7.552.5W 26 - 22UY
Sat 10/25 Arizona State vs Houston-7.046.5L 16 - 24UN
Sat 11/1 Arizona State at Iowa State+7.548.5W 24 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Arizona State vs West Virginia-13.5
Sat 11/22 Arizona State at Colorado-9.5
Fri 11/28 Arizona State vs Arizona-2.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arizona State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TXST#29 (.27)43% (64)34.144% (73)2.89 (57)21844% (55)2544.6 (21)#105 (.2)44% (101)33.944% (96)44% (100)4.33 (114)53.51.40.4
ASU#67 (.18)41% (86)24.746% (46)3.18 (22)18738% (111)2213.18 (117)#47 (.11)42% (75)23.743% (83)40% (56)3.75 (74)66.30.91.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TXST#25 (.25)48% (17)49% (14)3.41 (11)19448% (10)2453.89 (72)#50 (.14)39% (31)38% (21)39% (54)3.47 (33)56.51.61.2
ASU#13 (.31)50% (8)52% (6)3.35 (19)18747% (21)2084.14 (48)#36 (.12)42% (79)41% (49)44% (106)3.64 (51)50.10.61.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Offense834.131.343.4%4.61.4224722182544.958%41%44%44%13%.27
ASU Defense923.720.841.5%3.751.2 - - - - - 46%53%43%40%19%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Defense833.935.344.2%4.330.4 - - - - - 50%50%44%44%14%.2
ASU Offense924.728.241.4%3.180.9224081872214.950%49%46%38%17%.18

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas State829:052249%56%6.653.51.40.46.52.4027.3
Arizona State933:0622.133%62%8.366.30.91.26.42.7028.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Offense858% (18)44% (73)44.42184.924 (4).23 (19)2.89 (57)67% (95)8% (38)1.16 (8)
ASU Defense946% (31)43% (83) - - - - .09 (74)2.55 (48)73% (80)11% (38)1 (86)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Defense850% (69)44% (96) - - - - .15 (106)2.66 (57)63% (28)10% (70)1.09 (122)
ASU Offense950% (66)46% (46)38.4187.34.912 (78).22 (21)3.18 (22)69% (84)10% (93)1.04 (38)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Offense841% (118)44% (55)18.828.4254913.610 (86)5 (7).36 (35)1.7 (17)31% (60)38% (13).52 (15)5% (28)1.9 (91)
ASU Defense953% (107)40% (56) - - - - - - 6 (55).15 (35)1.4 (26)33% (40)29% (60).21 (37)8% (12)2 (82)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Defense850% (76)44% (100) - - - - - - 3 (123).26 (84)1.5 (67)30% (94)36% (126).37 (107)4% (130)1.9 (51)
ASU Offense949% (72)38% (111)20.234.8220.86.410.912 (86)4 (20).18 (98)1.5 (91)32% (72)29% (84).28 (84)7% (116)1.8 (108)

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 1.85  #67
Texas State's Offense Rating: 13.37  #49
Texas State's Defense Rating: 11.52  #93
2025 Talent Rating: 620.00  #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #65
Texas State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.7 - 6.3
Texas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6  #98
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #42
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.2  #130

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: 1.85   Arizona State: 10.225

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -6.6   Arizona State: 5.4




Arizona State's Power Ratings
Arizona State's Power Rating: 10.225  #45
Arizona State's Offense Rating: 8.95  #71
Arizona State's Defense Rating: -1.10  #28
2025 Talent Rating: 892.00  #27
Blue Chip Ratio: 6  #49
Arizona State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.2 - 3.8
Arizona State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.4  #54
Arizona State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8  #64
Arizona State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.7  #38

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Texas State Scoring
Offense: 34.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.3
Defense: 33.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.3

Texas State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 5
Record vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Arizona State 38
Texas State 25


Total Points: 63

Based on Last 4 Games
Arizona State 38
Texas State 32

Total Points: 69

Based on Entire Season
Arizona State 30
Texas State 28

Total Points: 58
Arizona State Scoring
Offense: 24.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.2
Defense: 23.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.8

Arizona State's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 3
Record vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Arizona State34Texas State15Arizona State -18.5Arizona State61.5Under
202409/12Texas State28Arizona State31Texas State -2.5Arizona State58.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arizona State221 Overs
Texas State001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 11 - 11 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 11 - 10 - 01 - 1

(#67) TXST at (#45) ASU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTXSTASU
Power RatePwr #67 #45
SP+SP+ #98 #54
Perf GradeGrade #63 #91
OffenseOff #44 #88
DefenseDef #105 #79
Spec TeamsST #57 #124
TalentTal #89 #27
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #49
Texas State Notes
(10/29) 4 straight L's, Def embarrassing. DC McCoil fail
(10/29) Must finish 3-1 to bowl. Awful regress for GJ Kinne
(10/27) RB Pare lost in losing streak, underrated RB
(10/19) 3 straight L's, allowing 40 PPG, Pass Def is awful
(10/19) Off has been good, Pass game great, but Def costing
(10/11) Blew 28-7 vs Troy, pass Def torched for 415, 5 TDs
(10/11) Troy QB Kilcrease doubled season yds pass vs Def
(10/5) Hard L @ Ark St, Def is really bad and costing W's
(9/4) rFr QB Brad Jackson looks like the real deal
(9/4) Run Off mauled EMU, OL looked outstanding
(8/1) Over Bet Watch, Kinne Off trust, Def struggles
(8/1) OL 3/5 back, good LY. 3 portals, some depth
Texas State Injury Report
Arizona State Notes
(11/6) Dillingham staying at ASU, out of coach searches
(10/31) QB Leavitt out for the season. QB2 Sims awful
(10/26) Awful L to Houston, Leavitt inj but came back
(10/22) Lead WR J Tyson out for Houston game
(10/15) RB Kyson Brown now out indefinitely (depth)
(9/27) Huge W over TCU, Run Off good, Leavitt good
(9/27) Outgained TCU 500-271, forced 3 TOs, won by GW FG?
(9/21) Big W @ Baylor, Run Def good, Leavitt great
(6/15) Expecting improved pass rush, 2nd year DLC
(5/23) ASU was 6-2 in 1 score games LY
(5/11) Least exp'd B12 OL, almost no exp from portals
(5/2) TE Metayer a good reliable target, underrated
Arizona State Injury Report
Texas State on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
TXST OffASU Def
Perf GradePerf #44 #79
SuccessSuc #64 #75
ExplosiveExp #12 #60
PPAPPA #29 #47
PowerPwr #49 #28
SP+SP+ #42 #38
Pts POPPO #21 #74
HavocHav #27 #15
Texas State Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
TXST OffASU Def
Run GameRun #43 #73
Run SuccessRSuc #73 #83
Run ExplRExp #8 #86
PPAExp #19 #74
Run BlockR Blk #15 -
OL YdsOLY #57 #48
Stuff RateStuff #59 #45
TackleTak -  #70
Texas State Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
TXST OffASU Def
Pass GamePass #74 #56
Pass SuccessPSuc #55 #56
Pass ExplPExl #17 #26
PPAExp #35 #35
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #37 #105
F7 HavocF7 #38 #38
DB HavocDB #28 #12
Arizona State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatASU OffTXST Def
Perf GradePerf #88 #105
SuccessSuc #86 #101
ExplosiveExp #75 #97
PPAPPA #67 #105
PowerPwr #71 #93
SP+SP+ #64 #130
Pts POPPO #117 #114
HavocHav #101 #112
Arizona State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ASU OffTXST Def
Run GameRun #16 #78
Run SuccessRSuc #46 #96
Run ExplRExp #38 #122
PPAExp #21 #106
Run BlockR Blk #113 -
OL YdsOLY #22 #57
Stuff RateStuff #50 #36
TackleTak -  #121
Arizona State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatASU OffTXST Def
Pass GamePass #93 #123
Pass SuccessPSuc #111 #100
Pass ExplPExl #91 #67
PPAExp #98 #84
Pass Block/RushP Blk #38 #21
F7 HavocF7 #93 #70
DB HavocDB #116 #130
Program Comparison
ASU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

TXST 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Sun Devil Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 91° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 3
Arizona State -18.5 (61.5)
Arizona State won vs Texas State this year (34-15)

Previous Matchups
Arizona State beat Texas State last year (31-28)

  
TXST's OC Landon Keopple (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brad Jackson14922068%20161059.2
Keldric Luster (Tr)1333%14004.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lincoln Pare13064895.062
Brad Jackson10642794.063
Greg Burrell (Tr)5935936.159
Jaylen Jenkins2816726.058
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Beau Sparks51741614.573
Chris Dawn Jr.27511018.966
Kylen Evans15211114.145
Lincoln Pare1917309.129

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Dexter McCoil (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Treylin Payne664211
Ryan Nolan411022
Bobby Crosby372102
Ayden Jones (Tr)351020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Donterry Russell (Tr)114300
Kalil Alexander266320
Kenard Snyder (Tr)204220
Tymere Jackson255242
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ryan Nolan411022
Bobby Crosby372102
William Mitchell100002

ASU's OC Marcus Arroyo (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sam Leavitt14523961%16281036.8
Jeff Sims377351%359214.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Raleek Brown13777035.675
Jeff Sims5831625.488
Sam Leavitt7330654.252
Kanye Udoh (Tr)4417013.921
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordyn Tyson57628811.057
Chamon Metayer31349311.327
Malik McClain15259017.336
Raleek Brown2916705.816

View Arizona State's Full Roster

ASU's DC Brian Ward (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshaun Elliott7710431
Jordan Crook668211
Myles Rowser613002
Adrian Wilson (Tr)411015
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshaun Elliott7710431
Clayton Smith146420
Prince Dorbah158441
Elijah O'Neal235341
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keith Abney321109
Adrian Wilson (Tr)411015
Montana Warren251015