Texas State at Arizona State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Texas State logo Texas State Bobcats at Arizona State Sun DevilsArizona State logo
Saturday, September 13th 2025 (10:30 PM EDT)
Arizona State -18.5 (61.5) (-650)  Open: -14.5 | 59.5
Arizona State 34 - Texas State: 15

 
Bobcats (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (15 - 10)
Avg Score : 37 - 32 (29 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 3.3 (#29)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
TXST 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Arizona State -19.5   (SP+ ASU -12)

Projected Score: TXST: 21 - ASU: 40 (61)
ASU Win prob: 91% | Cover: 44%
TXST Travel: 858 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Sun Devils (2 - 1) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Kenny Dillingham (14 - 11)
Avg Score : 31 - 19 (36 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 4.7 (#55)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 2) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 1)
 
Texas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas State vs Eastern Michigan-14.058.5W 52 - 27OY
Sat 9/6 Texas State at UTSA+4.564.5W 43 - 36OY
Sat 9/13 Texas State at Arizona State+18.561.5L 15 - 34UN
Sat 9/20 Texas State vs Nicholls-22
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas State at Arkansas State-11.5
Sat 10/11 Texas State vs Troy-8
Sat 10/18 Texas State at Marshall-9.5
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28 Texas State vs James Madison+2.5
Sat 11/8 Texas State at Louisiana-6
Sat 11/15 Texas State at Southern Miss-1
Sat 11/22 Texas State vs UL Monroe-21
Sat 11/29 Texas State vs South Alabama-6.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule
Arizona State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arizona State vs Northern Arizona-29.552.5W 38 - 19ON
Sat 9/6 Arizona State at Mississippi State-6.058.5L 20 - 24UN
Sat 9/13 Arizona State vs Texas State-18.561.5W 34 - 15UY
Sat 9/20 Arizona State at Baylor+2.560.5
Fri 9/26 Arizona State vs TCU+0.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Arizona State at Utah+8
Sat 10/18 Arizona State vs Texas Tech+6
Sat 10/25 Arizona State vs Houston-12.5
Sat 11/1 Arizona State at Iowa State+2
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Arizona State vs West Virginia-10.5
Sat 11/22 Arizona State at Colorado-9
Sat 11/29 Arizona State vs Arizona-8.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arizona State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TXST#27 (.36)50% (32)36.752% (30)3 (68)22946% (52)2285.05 (30)#123 (.33)44% (101)32.351% (121)37% (51)4.56 (107)35.710
ASU#43 (.3)46% (54)30.752% (29)3.62 (19)23338% (99)1764.17 (61)#52 (.08)43% (90)19.344% (96)42% (81)2.86 (46)60.711
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TXST#25 (.25)48% (17)49% (14)3.41 (11)19448% (10)2453.89 (72)#50 (.14)39% (31)38% (21)39% (54)3.47 (33)56.51.61.2
ASU#13 (.31)50% (8)52% (6)3.35 (19)18747% (21)2084.14 (48)#36 (.12)42% (79)41% (49)44% (106)3.64 (51)50.10.61.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Offense336.72949.7%5.051234572292285.560%40%52%46%16%.36
ASU Defense319.31742.7%2.861 - - - - - 43%57%44%42%21%.08
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Defense332.33543.7%4.560 - - - - - 49%51%51%37%14%.33
ASU Offense330.73645.7%4.171224092331766.154%46%52%38%15%.3

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas State329:5722.743%75%435.7106.32029.3
Arizona State332:2221.724%67%8.360.71183.7028.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Offense360% (19)52% (30)41.7228.75.58 (26).32 (27)3 (68)70% (79)10% (93)1.11 (40)
ASU Defense343% (22)44% (96) - - - - .02 (55)2.32 (29)69% (63)12% (38)0.88 (55)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Defense349% (57)51% (121) - - - - .41 (132)3.28 (119)75% (80)9% (80)1.45 (129)
ASU Offense354% (49)52% (29)382336.16 (49).37 (17)3.62 (19)71% (67)8% (66)1.21 (27)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Offense340% (116)46% (52)18.327.72288.212.46 (34)1 (23).4 (44)1.6 (45)27% (36)39% (31).54 (34)6% (84)1.8 (95)
ASU Defense357% (116)42% (81) - - - - - - 1 (87).15 (52)1.4 (36)32% (75)28% (68).3 (76)9% (20)2.1 (91)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Defense351% (82)37% (51) - - - - - - 0.25 (79)1.6 (86)35% (48)39% (123).61 (124)5% (93)2.1 (81)
ASU Offense346% (87)38% (99)16.729175.76.110.55 (54)3 (92).23 (80)1.6 (62)33% (98)30% (77).33 (73)6% (100)2 (71)

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 0.24 #79
Texas State's Offense Rating: 16.20 #45
Texas State's Defense Rating: 15.96 #104
2025 Talent Rating: 620.00 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Texas State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.7 - 3.3
Texas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.4 #80
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #45
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.1 #111

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: 0.24   Arizona State: 17.91

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -3.4   Arizona State: 9.0




Arizona State's Power Ratings
Arizona State's Power Rating: 17.91 #27
Arizona State's Offense Rating: 22.18 #27
Arizona State's Defense Rating: 0.36 #29
2025 Talent Rating: 892.00 #27
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #49
Arizona State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.3 - 4.7
Arizona State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.0 #42
Arizona State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.3 #41
Arizona State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #37

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 29
Defense: 32.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 35

Texas State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Arizona State 40
Texas State 21


Total Points: 61

Arizona State Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 19.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Arizona State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Arizona State34Texas State15Arizona StateArizona State -18.5Arizona State61.5Under
202409/12Texas State28Arizona State31Arizona StateTexas State -2.5Arizona State58.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arizona State221 Overs
Texas State001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 11 - 11 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 11 - 10 - 01 - 1

(#79) Texas State Info
Power Rating: 0.24 #79
Offense Rating: 16.20 #45
Defense Rating: 15.96 #104
Overall SP+ Rating: -3.4 #80
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #45
Defense SP+ Rating: 34.1 #111
Talent Rating: 620.00 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Expected Record: 8.7 - 3.3

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 40%
Good Offense Success Rate of 50%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 5.05 PPO
Good Run Success 52%
Avg Pass Success 46%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 44%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.56 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 51%
Avg Pass Def Success 37%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Texas State has won 2 straight
Texas State has won 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 1 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Texas State Notes
(9/4) Run Off mauled EMU, OL looked outstanding
(8/1) Over Bet Watch, Kinne Off trust, Def struggles
(8/1) OL 3/5 back, good LY. 3 portals, some depth
(8/1) Def portals 10 DL, 5 LB, 6 DBs. Will take time
(7/13) QB1? 4 guys will battle, Jackson & 3 portals
(6/11) RB Pare has 2K yds & 20 total TDs in his career
(5/23) New OC Keopple downgrade Leftwich (T Tech)
(3/24) RB Pare (#2 LY) looks good, Burrell (UNLV)
(3/24) WR rebuild. Dawn/Sparks exp'd, 3 portal adds
(3/24) Def fell apart late LY, replacing most everyone

Texas State Highlights
Texas State has Really Good Running Game (#16)
Texas State offense is good in red zone (#30)
Texas State commits very few Penalties (#25)
Texas State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#)

Texas State Deficiencies
Texas State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Texas State has a bad defense (#101)
Texas State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#123)
Texas State has a bad defensive line (#119)
Texas State has a bad red zone defense (#107)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatASUTXST
OverallOver#52#47
OffenseOff#54#34
DefenseDef#66#78
Special TeamsST#13#15
PassingPass#80#95
RushingRush#14#4
Run BlockRBLK#51#33
Pass BlockPBLK#17#41
Route RunningWR Rt#81#53
TacklingTkl#36#109
Run DefenseR Def#57#84
Pass Rush DefPRush#56#41
Coverage DefCov#68#97

Rematch from Week 3
Arizona State -18.5 (61.5)
Arizona State won vs Texas State this year (34-15)

Previous Matchups
Arizona State beat Texas State last year (31-28)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Sun Devil Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: TXST | ASU
Depth Chart: TXST | ASU
Rosters: TXST | ASU
(#27) Arizona State Info
Power Rating: 17.91 #27
Offense Rating: 22.18 #27
Defense Rating: 0.36 #29
Overall SP+ Rating: 9.0 #42
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.3 #41
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #37
Talent Rating: 892.00 #27
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #49
Expected Record: 7.3 - 4.7

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 46%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.17 PPO
Good Run Success 52%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 43%
Avg in Scoring Position 2.86 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 44%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

Arizona State has lost 1 straight
Arizona State has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Arizona State Notes
(6/15) Expecting improved pass rush, 2nd year DLC
(5/23) ASU was 6-2 in 1 score games LY
(5/11) Least exp'd B12 OL, almost no exp from portals
(5/2) TE Metayer a good reliable target, underrated
(3/20) RBs Udoh (Army) or K. Brown fill in for Skat?
(3/18) QB Leavitt a top QB in CFB, mobile. Depth?
(3/18) WRs Tyson a weapon, who's #2/depth?
(3/18) OL rebuilding with only 2/5 back
(3/18) Def returns a ton, improved a ton LY
(1/1) HC Dillingham new 5 yr deal, top tier B12 #'s

Arizona State Highlights
Arizona State is Undefeated at Home

Arizona State has Really Good Running Game (#15)
Arizona State has a top Offensive Line (#19)
Arizona State Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Arizona State Defensive Line is very good (#29)
Arizona State Secondary is very good (#20)

Arizona State Deficiencies
Arizona State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#121)
Arizona State offense is bad on 3rd Downs


  
Texas State's OC Landon Keopple
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brad Jackson558267%684618.3
Keldric Luster (Tr)010%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lincoln Pare4629926.557
Jaylen Jenkins1614028.858
Greg Burrell (Tr)129818.220
Brad Jackson359132.624
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Beau Sparks22307514.073
Chris Dawn Jr.8160020.056
Lincoln Pare86908.620
Kylen Evans64417.313

View Texas State's Full Roster
Texas State's DC Dexter McCoil
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Treylin Payne232101
Ryan Nolan211021
Kenard Snyder (Tr)132120
Ayden Jones (Tr)120010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Treylin Payne232101
Kenard Snyder (Tr)132120
Kalil Alexander123100
Donterry Russell (Tr)42100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
William Mitchell100002
Bobby Crosby120002
Treylin Payne232101

Arizona State's OC Marcus Arroyo
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sam Leavitt508658%527536.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Raleek Brown3529228.375
Sam Leavitt2715735.852
Kanye Udoh (Tr)3213814.321
Kyson Brown98409.334
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordyn Tyson24314413.136
Chamon Metayer780111.427
Kyson Brown672012.022
Raleek Brown73404.911

View Arizona State's Full Roster
Arizona State's DC Brian Ward
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Crook245200
Keyshaun Elliott203220
Myles Rowser191001
Martell Hughes140000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Clayton Smith125310
Jordan Crook245200
Keyshaun Elliott203220
Albert Smith III21101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keith Abney111103
Montana Warren121013
Kyndrich Breedlove (Tr)60002