Texas State at Arizona State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Texas State logo   Texas State Bobcats at Arizona State Sun Devils  Arizona State logo
Saturday, September 13th 2025 (10:30 PM EDT)
Arizona State -18.5 (61.5) (-650)  Open: -14.5 | 59.5
Arizona State 34 - Texas State: 15

 
Bobcats (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (15 - 10)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (34 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.9 - 6.1 (#70)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
TXST 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Arizona State -10.5  (SP+ ASU -2)

Projected Score: TXST: 24 - ASU: 35 (59)
ASU Win prob: 91% | Cover: 44%
TXST Travel: 858 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Sun Devils (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Kenny Dillingham (14 - 11)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (25 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#38)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 3) (Good: 2) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 1)
 
Texas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas State vs Eastern Michigan-14.058.5W 52 - 27OY
Sat 9/6 Texas State at UTSA+4.564.5W 43 - 36OY
Sat 9/13 Texas State at Arizona State+18.561.5L 15 - 34UN
Sat 9/20 Texas State vs Nicholls-32.557.0W 35 - 3UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas State at Arkansas State-14.063.5L 30 - 31UN
Sat 10/11 Texas State vs Troy-7.553.5L 41 - 48ON
Sat 10/18 Texas State at Marshall-3.065.5L 37 - 40ON
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28 Texas State vs James Madison+7.555.5L 20 - 52ON
Sat 11/8 Texas State at Louisiana-3.562.5L 39 - 42ON
Sat 11/15 Texas State at Southern Miss+3.065.5W 41 - 14UY
Sat 11/22 Texas State vs UL Monroe-20.559.5W 31 - 14UN
Sat 11/29 Texas State vs South Alabama-9.562.5W 49 - 26OY
Fri 1/2 Texas State vs Rice-19.555.5W 41 - 10UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule
Arizona State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arizona State vs Northern Arizona-29.552.5W 38 - 19ON
Sat 9/6 Arizona State at Mississippi State-6.058.5L 20 - 24UN
Sat 9/13 Arizona State vs Texas State-18.561.5W 34 - 15UY
Sat 9/20 Arizona State at Baylor+3.060.5W 27 - 24UY
Fri 9/26 Arizona State vs TCU-2.554.5W 27 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Arizona State at Utah+9.544.5L 10 - 42ON
Sat 10/18 Arizona State vs Texas Tech+7.552.5W 26 - 22UY
Sat 10/25 Arizona State vs Houston-7.046.5L 16 - 24UN
Sat 11/1 Arizona State at Iowa State+7.548.5W 24 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Arizona State vs West Virginia-10.046.5W 25 - 23ON
Sat 11/22 Arizona State at Colorado-7.047.5W 42 - 17OY
Fri 11/28 Arizona State vs Arizona+2.048.5L 7 - 23UN
Wed 12/31 Arizona State vs Duke+4.049.5L 39 - 42OY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arizona State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TXST#25 (.25)48% (17)36.549% (14)3.41 (11)19448% (10)2453.89 (72)#50 (.14)39% (31)2938% (21)39% (54)3.47 (33)56.51.61.2
ASU#13 (.31)50% (8)25.852% (6)3.35 (19)18747% (21)2084.14 (48)#36 (.12)42% (79)24.541% (49)44% (106)3.64 (51)50.10.61.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TXST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ASU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Offense1336.534.248%3.891.6244381942455.252%47%49%48%13%.25
ASU Defense1424.521.442.4%3.641.4 - - - - - 45%54%41%44%16%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Defense132932.838.6%3.471.2 - - - - - 51%48%38%39%19%.14
ASU Offense1425.824.749.8%4.140.6203951872084.959%41%52%47%12%.31

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas State1328:1724.145%64%6.156.51.61.26.92.4231
Arizona State1429:5420.447%53%650.10.61.441.3328.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Offense1352% (59)49% (14)37.1193.75.225 (41).16 (49)3.41 (11)75% (53)8% (35)0.88 (110)
ASU Defense1445% (14)41% (49) - - - - .04 (27)2.97 (61)63% (19)8% (116)1 (76)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Defense1351% (72)38% (21) - - - - .12 (67)2.97 (60)68% (34)14% (7)1.13 (123)
ASU Offense1459% (14)52% (6)38.11874.928 (25).27 (12)3.35 (19)73% (76)7% (18)0.96 (71)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Offense1347% (86)48% (10)20.930.2244.78.111.730 (9)13 (103).4 (13)1.5 (91)29% (31)34% (41).32 (74)5% (44)1.7 (131)
ASU Defense1454% (119)44% (106) - - - - - - 15 (18).21 (57)1.4 (18)32% (65)30% (68).14 (5)8% (21)1.9 (27)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Defense1348% (56)39% (54) - - - - - - 7 (104).19 (45)1.6 (62)35% (23)29% (44).3 (65)5% (106)2.2 (110)
ASU Offense1441% (120)47% (21)14.923.9208.48.71425 (31)5 (6).39 (14)1.6 (43)27% (11)38% (5).45 (21)4% (16)1.9 (115)

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -2.50  #74
Texas State's Offense Rating: 14.54  #59
Texas State's Defense Rating: 17.04  #95
2025 Talent Rating: 620.00  #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #65
Texas State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.9 - 6.1
Texas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3  #65
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6  #15
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.6  #117

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -2.50   Arizona State: 10.37

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: 2.3   Arizona State: 3.9




Arizona State's Power Ratings
Arizona State's Power Rating: 10.37  #34
Arizona State's Offense Rating: 13.54  #66
Arizona State's Defense Rating: 1.70  #15
2025 Talent Rating: 892.00  #27
Blue Chip Ratio: 6  #49
Arizona State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 4.4
Arizona State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9  #60
Arizona State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.3  #59
Arizona State's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.7  #44

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.2
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Texas State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Arizona State 35
Texas State 24


Projected Total Points: 59
Arizona State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.7
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.4

Arizona State's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Arizona State34Texas State15Arizona State -18.5Arizona State61.5Under
202409/12Texas State28Arizona State31Texas State -2.5Arizona State58.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arizona State221 Overs
Texas State001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 11 - 11 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 11 - 10 - 01 - 1

(#74) TXST at (#34) ASU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTXSTASU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #74 #34
SP+SP+ #65 #60
Perf GradeGrade #35 #88
OffenseOff #35 #93
DefenseDef #49 #66
Spec TeamsST #73 #109
TalentTal #89 #27
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #49
Texas State Notes
(12/19) Hiring DC Will Windham (S Al's DC, Def was awful)
(10/29) 4 straight L's, Def embarrassing. DC McCoil fail
(10/29) Must finish 3-1 to bowl. Awful regress for GJ Kinne
(10/27) RB Pare lost in losing streak, underrated RB
(10/19) 3 straight L's, allowing 40 PPG, Pass Def is awful
(10/19) Off has been good, Pass game great, but Def costing
(10/11) Blew 28-7 vs Troy, pass Def torched for 415, 5 TDs
(10/11) Troy QB Kilcrease doubled season yds pass vs Def
(10/5) Hard L @ Ark St, Def is really bad and costing W's
(9/4) rFr QB Brad Jackson looks like the real deal
(9/4) Run Off mauled EMU, OL looked outstanding
(8/1) Over Bet Watch, Kinne Off trust, Def struggles
Texas State Injury Report
Arizona State Notes
(11/29) Awful loss to Az to finish. No QB2 cost ASU's season
(11/6) Dillingham staying at ASU, out of coach searches
(10/31) QB Leavitt out for the season. QB2 Sims awful
(10/26) Awful L to Houston, Leavitt inj but came back
(10/22) Lead WR J Tyson out for Houston game
(10/15) RB Kyson Brown now out indefinitely (depth)
(9/27) Huge W over TCU, Run Off good, Leavitt good
(9/27) Outgained TCU 500-271, forced 3 TOs, won by GW FG?
(9/21) Big W @ Baylor, Run Def good, Leavitt great
(6/15) Expecting improved pass rush, 2nd year DLC
(5/23) ASU was 6-2 in 1 score games LY
(5/11) Least exp'd B12 OL, almost no exp from portals
Arizona State Injury Report
Texas State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
TXST OffASU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #35 #66
SuccessSuc #17 #79
ExplosiveExp #115 #55
PPAPPA #25 #36
PowerPwr #59 #15
SP+SP+ #15 #44
Pts POPPO #72 #51
HavocHav #29 #75
Texas State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
TXST OffASU Def
Run GameRun #17 #47
Run SuccessRSuc #14 #49
Run ExplRExp #110 #76
PPAExp #49 #27
Run BlockR Blk #34 -
OL YdsOLY #11 #61
Stuff RateStuff #23 #47
TackleTak -  #79
Texas State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
TXST OffASU Def
Pass GamePass #42 #36
Pass SuccessPSuc #10 #106
Pass ExplPExl #91 #18
PPAExp #13 #57
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #25 #133
F7 HavocF7 #35 #116
DB HavocDB #44 #21
Arizona State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatASU OffTXST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #93 #49
SuccessSuc #8 #31
ExplosiveExp #100 #107
PPAPPA #13 #50
PowerPwr #66 #95
SP+SP+ #59 #117
Pts POPPO #48 #33
HavocHav #11 #26
Arizona State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ASU OffTXST Def
Run GameRun #38 #49
Run SuccessRSuc #6 #21
Run ExplRExp #71 #123
PPAExp #12 #67
Run BlockR Blk #113 -
OL YdsOLY #19 #60
Stuff RateStuff #30 #31
TackleTak -  #118
Arizona State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatASU OffTXST Def
Pass GamePass #82 #83
Pass SuccessPSuc #21 #54
Pass ExplPExl #43 #62
PPAExp #14 #45
Pass Block/RushP Blk #33 #8
F7 HavocF7 #18 #7
DB HavocDB #16 #106
Program Comparison
ASU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Sun Devil Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 3
Arizona State -18.5 (61.5)
Arizona State won vs Texas State this year (34-15)

Previous Matchups
Arizona State beat Texas State last year (34-15)
Arizona State beat Texas State in 2024 (31-28)

  
TXST's OC Landon Keopple (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brad Jackson25135271%32232179.2
Keldric Luster (Tr)1333%14004.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lincoln Pare2111129125.463
Brad Jackson174744174.363
Greg Burrell (Tr)10067136.761
Jaylen Jenkins3117025.558
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Beau Sparks8412001014.373
Chris Dawn Jr.651007415.582
Lincoln Pare3731128.432
Kylen Evans15211114.145

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Dexter McCoil (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Treylin Payne1017232
Ryan Nolan723022
Bobby Crosby593203
Ayden Jones (Tr)521020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kalil Alexander4812550
Donterry Russell (Tr)186401
Kenard Snyder (Tr)359320
Treylin Payne1017232
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaden Rios (Tr)244104
Amarion Atwood292023
Bobby Crosby593203

ASU's OC Marcus Arroyo (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sam Leavitt14523961%16281036.8
Jeff Sims10518856%12611066.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Raleek Brown186114146.188
Jeff Sims10052255.288
Sam Leavitt7330654.252
Kanye Udoh (Tr)5624024.325
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordyn Tyson61711811.757
Malik McClain31441114.236
Chamon Metayer3837549.927
Derek Eusebio22341215.568

View Arizona State's Full Roster

ASU's DC Brian Ward (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Crook1018222
Keyshaun Elliott9814742
Myles Rowser844013
Adrian Wilson (Tr)571016
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshaun Elliott9814742
Justin Wodtly427752
Elijah O'Neal379561
Prince Dorbah188471
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keith Abney4411012
Javan Robinson423008
Montana Warren402028