Houston at Arizona State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Houston logo Houston Cougars at Arizona State Sun Devils(#24)Arizona State logo
Saturday, October 25th 2025 (8:00 PM EDT)
Arizona State -7 (46.5) (-298)  Open: -7.0
Houston 24 - Arizona State: 16  (Big 12)

 
Cougars (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Willie Fritz (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 29 - 23 (31 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.3 - 3.7 (#30)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
ASU 2nd straight Home Game
HOU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Arizona State -5.5  (SP+ HOU -3)

Projected Score: HOU: 21 - ASU: 27 (48)
ASU Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
HOU Travel: 1008 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Sun Devils (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Kenny Dillingham (14 - 11)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (25 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#38)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
 
Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Houston vs Stephen F. Austin-24.554.5W 27 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Houston at Rice-13.538.5W 35 - 9OY
Fri 9/12 Houston vs Colorado-4.045.5W 36 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Fri 9/26 Houston at Oregon State-11.548.5W 27 - 24ON
Sat 10/4 Houston vs Texas Tech+13.551.5L 11 - 35UN
Sat 10/11 Houston at Oklahoma State-14.547.5W 39 - 17OY
Sat 10/18 Houston vs Arizona+1.547.5W 31 - 28OY
Sat 10/25 Houston at Arizona State+7.046.5W 24 - 16UY
Sat 11/1 Houston vs West Virginia-13.548.5L 35 - 45ON
Fri 11/7 Houston at UCF+1.547.5W 30 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Houston vs TCU+1.555.5L 14 - 17UN
Sat 11/29 Houston at Baylor+2.557.5W 31 - 24UY
Sat 12/27 Houston vs LSU-1.543.5W 38 - 35OY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Houston's Schedule
Arizona State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arizona State vs Northern Arizona-29.552.5W 38 - 19ON
Sat 9/6 Arizona State at Mississippi State-6.058.5L 20 - 24UN
Sat 9/13 Arizona State vs Texas State-18.561.5W 34 - 15UY
Sat 9/20 Arizona State at Baylor+3.060.5W 27 - 24UY
Fri 9/26 Arizona State vs TCU-2.554.5W 27 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Arizona State at Utah+9.544.5L 10 - 42ON
Sat 10/18 Arizona State vs Texas Tech+7.552.5W 26 - 22UY
Sat 10/25 Arizona State vs Houston-7.046.5L 16 - 24UN
Sat 11/1 Arizona State at Iowa State+7.548.5W 24 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Arizona State vs West Virginia-10.046.5W 25 - 23ON
Sat 11/22 Arizona State at Colorado-7.047.5W 42 - 17OY
Fri 11/28 Arizona State vs Arizona+2.048.5L 7 - 23UN
Wed 12/31 Arizona State vs Duke+4.049.5L 39 - 42OY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arizona State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HOU#106 (.1)41% (87)29.140% (100)2.62 (122)16343% (52)1993.39 (101)#37 (.09)41% (60)22.846% (106)38% (34)3.77 (76)37.81.11.3
ASU#87 (.14)40% (101)25.843% (71)2.98 (61)17438% (108)1953.32 (109)#32 (.09)40% (48)24.540% (50)39% (45)3.32 (38)55.21.41.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HOU#133 (-)35% (129)35% (130)2.52 (129)13737% (115)1532.57 (134)#51 (.14)40% (41)40% (41)39% (49)3.52 (41)51.92.31.6
ASU#13 (.31)50% (8)52% (6)3.35 (19)18747% (21)2084.14 (48)#36 (.12)42% (79)41% (49)44% (106)3.64 (51)50.10.61.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HOU Offense1329.13141.3%3.391.1203611631994.257%41%40%43%14%.1
ASU Defense1324.521.439.8%3.321.1 - - - - - 46%53%40%39%19%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HOU Defense1322.819.541.2%3.771.3 - - - - - 49%48%46%38%16%.09
ASU Offense1325.824.739.9%3.321.419369174195551%47%43%38%17%.14

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Houston1329:2019.640%59%4.337.81.11.34.21.8230.7
Arizona State1329:3019.433%63%6.955.21.41.16.22.5027.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HOU Offense1357% (17)40% (100)38.5162.74.216 (78)-.04 (133)2.62 (122)74% (58)9% (43)0.8 (128)
ASU Defense1346% (24)40% (50) - - - - .01 (18)2.68 (27)71% (64)11% (26)0.9 (40)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HOU Defense1349% (59)46% (106) - - - - .05 (42)2.72 (34)79% (116)9% (97)0.77 (2)
ASU Offense1351% (53)43% (71)35.2174.2516 (78).13 (63)2.98 (61)66% (104)10% (82)0.97 (66)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HOU Offense1341% (119)43% (52)16.526.2198.77.612.122 (50)10 (20).33 (44)1.8 (12)30% (50)25% (117).18 (115)5% (39)2 (65)
ASU Defense1353% (119)39% (45) - - - - - - 7 (55).17 (35)1.5 (47)33% (45)29% (65).22 (36)8% (13)2 (79)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HOU Defense1348% (66)38% (34) - - - - - - 12 (38).19 (46)1.4 (23)32% (63)24% (9).21 (34)7% (20)2.1 (108)
ASU Offense1347% (88)38% (108)17.230.2194.86.511.317 (86)8 (20).23 (76)1.6 (43)32% (85)27% (98).26 (87)8% (119)1.9 (90)

Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: 2.37  #60
Houston's Offense Rating: 6.33  #84
Houston's Defense Rating: 3.96  #41
2025 Talent Rating: 786.00  #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 7%  #46
Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 9.3 - 3.7
Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.6  #42
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.4  #53
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.4  #41

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Houston: 2.37   Arizona State: 10.62

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Houston: 7.6   Arizona State: 4.8




Arizona State's Power Ratings
Arizona State's Power Rating: 10.62  #38
Arizona State's Offense Rating: 6.90  #79
Arizona State's Defense Rating: -4.54  #17
2025 Talent Rating: 892.00  #27
Blue Chip Ratio: 6  #49
Arizona State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 4.4
Arizona State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8  #53
Arizona State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.1  #71
Arizona State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.6  #36

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Houston Scoring
Offense: 29.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 31
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 19.5

Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Arizona State 27
Houston 21


Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Houston 28
Arizona State 24

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
Houston 27
Arizona State 23

Total Points: 50
Arizona State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.7
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.4

Arizona State's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/25Arizona State16Houston24Arizona State -7Houston46.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arizona State000 Overs
Houston111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#60) HOU at (#38) ASU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatHOUASU
Power RatePwr #60 #38
SP+SP+ #42 #53
Perf GradeGrade #49 #89
OffenseOff #77 #93
DefenseDef #27 #63
Spec TeamsST #39 #113
TalentTal #58 #27
Blue ChipsBC% #46 #49
Houston Notes
(11/29) Beat Baylor to finish 9-3. Incredible year 2 for Fritz
(10/26) Another huge W vs ASU, Off good, Def better
(10/18) Big W vs Zona, Run Off beter, Def held on. Bowl team
(10/18) If this Off improves, Def is nasty, could make noise
(10/7) QB Weigman left T Tech w/ concussion, ? for Pokes
(10/1) Lotta guys went down vs Oregon State, watch
(9/30) Off Success #'s lowest in P4, Run & Pass bottom 10
(9/13) Def great vs CU, Weigman can throw now?
(9/13) Determined to run but bad success, pop expl
(6/14) QB, RB, WR, TE + 3 OL upgrades via portals
(6/14) RB Connors pot. big add, workhorse w/ hands
(6/14) OL added 3 starters & depth, much better TY
Houston Injury Report
Arizona State Notes
(11/29) Awful loss to Az to finish. No QB2 cost ASU's season
(11/6) Dillingham staying at ASU, out of coach searches
(10/31) QB Leavitt out for the season. QB2 Sims awful
(10/26) Awful L to Houston, Leavitt inj but came back
(10/22) Lead WR J Tyson out for Houston game
(10/15) RB Kyson Brown now out indefinitely (depth)
(9/27) Huge W over TCU, Run Off good, Leavitt good
(9/27) Outgained TCU 500-271, forced 3 TOs, won by GW FG?
(9/21) Big W @ Baylor, Run Def good, Leavitt great
(6/15) Expecting improved pass rush, 2nd year DLC
(5/23) ASU was 6-2 in 1 score games LY
(5/11) Least exp'd B12 OL, almost no exp from portals
Arizona State Injury Report
Houston on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat
HOU OffASU Def
Perf GradePerf #77 #63
SuccessSuc #87 #48
ExplosiveExp #78 #52
PPAPPA #106 #32
PowerPwr #84 #17
SP+SP+ #53 #36
Pts POPPO #101 #38
HavocHav #43 #14
Houston Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat
HOU OffASU Def
Run GameRun #50 #47
Run SuccessRSuc #100 #50
Run ExplRExp #128 #40
PPAExp #133 #18
Run BlockR Blk #74 -
OL YdsOLY #122 #27
Stuff RateStuff #92 #35
TackleTak -  #42
Houston Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat
HOU OffASU Def
Pass GamePass #116 #47
Pass SuccessPSuc #52 #45
Pass ExplPExl #12 #47
PPAExp #44 #35
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #131 #117
F7 HavocF7 #43 #26
DB HavocDB #39 #13
Arizona State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatASU OffHOU Def
Perf GradePerf #93 #27
SuccessSuc #101 #60
ExplosiveExp #66 #4
PPAPPA #87 #37
PowerPwr #79 #41
SP+SP+ #71 #41
Pts POPPO #109 #76
HavocHav #107 #60
Arizona State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ASU OffHOU Def
Run GameRun #33 #28
Run SuccessRSuc #71 #106
Run ExplRExp #66 #2
PPAExp #63 #42
Run BlockR Blk #98 -
OL YdsOLY #61 #34
Stuff RateStuff #83 #67
TackleTak -  #26
Arizona State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatASU OffHOU Def
Pass GamePass #96 #20
Pass SuccessPSuc #108 #34
Pass ExplPExl #43 #23
PPAExp #76 #46
Pass Block/RushP Blk #27 #125
F7 HavocF7 #82 #97
DB HavocDB #119 #20
Program Comparison
ASU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

HOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Sun Devil Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 84°
Rematch from Week 9
Arizona State -7.0 (46.5)
Houston won at Arizona State this year (24-16)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
HOU's OC Slade Nagle (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Conner Weigman (Tr)23135565%27112597.6
Zeon Chriss102148%108115.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dean Connors (Tr)20097764.954
Conner Weigman (Tr)170703114.150
DJ Butler6830104.415
Stacy Sneed3713003.516
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Amare Thomas (Tr)669721214.764
Tanner Koziol (Tr)7472769.850
Stephon Johnson Jr.13275221.274
Dean Connors (Tr)3425437.533

View Houston's Full Roster

HOU's DC Austin Armstrong (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jalen Garner764242
Carlos Allen728203
Kentrell Webb713004
Eddie Walls III (Tr)6412795
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eddie Walls III (Tr)6412795
Brandon Mack326510
Corey Platt Jr.415322
Wrook Brown (Tr)496302
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Latrell McCutchin523108
Zelmar Vedder (Tr)190007
Will James (Tr)394005

ASU's OC Marcus Arroyo (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sam Leavitt14523961%16281036.8
Jeff Sims7815052%886755.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Raleek Brown186114146.188
Jeff Sims9345234.988
Sam Leavitt7330654.252
Kanye Udoh (Tr)5624024.325
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordyn Tyson61711811.757
Malik McClain22378017.236
Chamon Metayer3837549.927
Derek Eusebio21303214.468

View Arizona State's Full Roster

ASU's DC Brian Ward (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshaun Elliott9814742
Jordan Crook928212
Myles Rowser794013
Adrian Wilson (Tr)571016
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshaun Elliott9814742
Justin Wodtly366622
Prince Dorbah188471
Clayton Smith197420
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keith Abney4411012
Javan Robinson423008
Montana Warren352017