TCU at Arizona State - 2025 Matchup Preview
TCU logo   TCU Horned Frogs at Arizona State Sun Devils  Arizona State logo
Friday, September 26th 2025 (9:00 PM EDT)
Arizona State -2.5 (54.5) (-150)  Open: -2.5
Arizona State 27 - TCU: 24  (Big 12)

 
Horned Frogs (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (26 - 13)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (26 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#51)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 5) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 0)
ASU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: TCU -1  (SP+ TCU -4.5)

Projected Score: TCU: 27 - ASU: 26 (53)
ASU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
TCU Travel: 844 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Sun Devils (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Kenny Dillingham (14 - 11)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (25 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#38)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
 
TCU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1 TCU at North Carolina-3.059.5W 48 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 TCU vs Abilene Christian-42.560.5W 42 - 21ON
Sat 9/20 TCU vs SMU-6.563.5W 35 - 24UY
Fri 9/26 TCU at Arizona State+2.554.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 10/4 TCU vs Colorado-13.557.5W 35 - 21UY
Sat 10/11 TCU at Kansas State-3.054.5L 28 - 41ON
Sat 10/18 TCU vs Baylor-3.566.5W 42 - 36OY
Sat 10/25 TCU at West Virginia-16.555.5W 23 - 17UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 TCU vs Iowa State-7.558.5L 17 - 20UN
Sat 11/15 TCU at BYU+3.051.5L 13 - 44ON
Sat 11/22 TCU at Houston-1.555.5W 17 - 14UY
Sat 11/29 TCU vs Cincinnati-3.058.5W 45 - 23OY
Tue 12/30 TCU vs USC+4.556.5W 30 - 27OY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for TCU's Schedule
Arizona State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arizona State vs Northern Arizona-29.552.5W 38 - 19ON
Sat 9/6 Arizona State at Mississippi State-6.058.5L 20 - 24UN
Sat 9/13 Arizona State vs Texas State-18.561.5W 34 - 15UY
Sat 9/20 Arizona State at Baylor+3.060.5W 27 - 24UY
Fri 9/26 Arizona State vs TCU-2.554.5W 27 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Arizona State at Utah+9.544.5L 10 - 42ON
Sat 10/18 Arizona State vs Texas Tech+7.552.5W 26 - 22UY
Sat 10/25 Arizona State vs Houston-7.046.5L 16 - 24UN
Sat 11/1 Arizona State at Iowa State+7.548.5W 24 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Arizona State vs West Virginia-10.046.5W 25 - 23ON
Sat 11/22 Arizona State at Colorado-7.047.5W 42 - 17OY
Fri 11/28 Arizona State vs Arizona+2.048.5L 7 - 23UN
Wed 12/31 Arizona State vs Duke+4.049.5L 39 - 42OY

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arizona State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TCU#18 (.3)47% (20)30.745% (53)2.95 (85)10649% (9)2934.46 (20)#82 (.19)42% (67)25.346% (102)36% (18)3.82 (72)49.71.61.1
ASU#13 (.31)50% (8)25.852% (6)3.35 (19)18747% (21)2084.14 (48)#36 (.12)42% (79)24.541% (49)44% (106)3.64 (51)50.10.61.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TCU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ASU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TCU Offense1330.725.547.1%4.461.6214001062933.942%58%45%49%13%.3
ASU Defense1424.521.442.4%3.641.4 - - - - - 45%54%41%44%16%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TCU Defense1325.326.241.5%3.821.1 - - - - - 53%47%46%36%14%.19
ASU Offense1425.824.749.8%4.140.6203951872084.959%41%52%47%12%.31

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
TCU1326:112144%80%5.249.71.61.14.51.8131.7
Arizona State1429:5420.447%53%650.10.61.441.3328.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TCU Offense1342% (119)45% (53)27.6106.43.926 (36).08 (95)2.95 (85)73% (70)8% (36)0.94 (85)
ASU Defense1445% (14)41% (49) - - - - .04 (27)2.97 (61)63% (19)8% (116)1 (76)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TCU Defense1353% (95)46% (102) - - - - .22 (118)3.26 (104)89% (134)9% (105)1.02 (87)
ASU Offense1459% (14)52% (6)38.11874.928 (25).27 (12)3.35 (19)73% (76)7% (18)0.96 (71)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TCU Offense1358% (19)49% (9)23.534.9293.28.412.525 (31)10 (63).47 (5)1.6 (75)31% (57)33% (47).4 (39)5% (38)2.1 (55)
ASU Defense1454% (119)44% (106) - - - - - - 15 (18).21 (57)1.4 (18)32% (65)30% (68).14 (5)8% (21)1.9 (27)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TCU Defense1347% (41)36% (18) - - - - - - 8 (93).18 (40)1.5 (57)34% (42)27% (19).19 (22)6% (81)1.8 (26)
ASU Offense1441% (120)47% (21)14.923.9208.48.71425 (31)5 (6).39 (14)1.6 (43)27% (11)38% (5).45 (21)4% (16)1.9 (115)

TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 14.15  #25
TCU's Offense Rating: 21.60  #22
TCU's Defense Rating: 7.45  #33
2025 Talent Rating: 882.00  #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 16%  #31
TCU's 2025 Expected Record: 8.3 - 4.7
TCU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.3  #37
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.9  #30
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.9  #50

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
TCU: 14.15   Arizona State: 10.37

SP+ Ratings Matchup
TCU: 8.3   Arizona State: 3.9




Arizona State's Power Ratings
Arizona State's Power Rating: 10.37  #34
Arizona State's Offense Rating: 13.54  #66
Arizona State's Defense Rating: 1.70  #15
2025 Talent Rating: 892.00  #27
Blue Chip Ratio: 6  #49
Arizona State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 4.4
Arizona State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9  #60
Arizona State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.3  #59
Arizona State's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.7  #44

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


TCU Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.5
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.2

TCU's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
TCU 27
Arizona State 26


Projected Total Points: 53
Arizona State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.7
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.4

Arizona State's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/26Arizona State27TCU24Arizona State -2.5Arizona State54.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arizona State110 Overs
TCU001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#25) TCU at (#34) ASU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTCUASU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #25 #34
SP+SP+ #37 #60
Perf GradeGrade #26 #88
OffenseOff #34 #93
DefenseDef #27 #66
Spec TeamsST #73 #109
TalentTal #29 #27
Blue ChipsBC% #31 #49
TCU Notes
(12/11) Hired UConn OC Gordon Sammis. Pot. good upgrade
(11/16) Frogs disappointing. No show vs decent teams
(10/27) Even box score @ WVU? Frogs not road warriors
(10/12) Blew season vs K St, Run Off bad, Run Def worse
(9/27) Run Off awful vs ASU, Def torched 500 yds, 200 rush
(9/27) 3 TOs, 8 penalties, outgained 500-271 and lost by 3
(9/20) Hoover great, Run Off meh, R Def great vs SMU
(9/20) WR McAlister one of best in CFB, great weapon
(9/1) Killed NC, Run game dominant, Run Def great
(7/13) WR McAlister, Dwyer good duo. Have depth
(5/19) OL returns 3/5, not good LY. 2 FCS portals?
(5/19) RBs Palmer & Payne top duo in spring ball
TCU Injury Report
Arizona State Notes
(11/29) Awful loss to Az to finish. No QB2 cost ASU's season
(11/6) Dillingham staying at ASU, out of coach searches
(10/31) QB Leavitt out for the season. QB2 Sims awful
(10/26) Awful L to Houston, Leavitt inj but came back
(10/22) Lead WR J Tyson out for Houston game
(10/15) RB Kyson Brown now out indefinitely (depth)
(9/27) Huge W over TCU, Run Off good, Leavitt good
(9/27) Outgained TCU 500-271, forced 3 TOs, won by GW FG?
(9/21) Big W @ Baylor, Run Def good, Leavitt great
(6/15) Expecting improved pass rush, 2nd year DLC
(5/23) ASU was 6-2 in 1 score games LY
(5/11) Least exp'd B12 OL, almost no exp from portals
Arizona State Injury Report
TCU on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
TCU OffASU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #34 #66
SuccessSuc #20 #79
ExplosiveExp #45 #55
PPAPPA #18 #36
PowerPwr #22 #15
SP+SP+ #30 #44
Pts POPPO #20 #51
HavocHav #28 #75
TCU Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
TCU OffASU Def
Run GameRun #60 #47
Run SuccessRSuc #53 #49
Run ExplRExp #85 #76
PPAExp #95 #27
Run BlockR Blk #69 -
OL YdsOLY #85 #61
Stuff RateStuff #82 #47
TackleTak -  #79
TCU Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
TCU OffASU Def
Pass GamePass #22 #36
Pass SuccessPSuc #9 #106
Pass ExplPExl #75 #18
PPAExp #5 #57
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #32 #133
F7 HavocF7 #36 #116
DB HavocDB #38 #21
Arizona State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatASU OffTCU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #93 #27
SuccessSuc #8 #67
ExplosiveExp #100 #52
PPAPPA #13 #82
PowerPwr #66 #33
SP+SP+ #59 #50
Pts POPPO #48 #72
HavocHav #11 #102
Arizona State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ASU OffTCU Def
Run GameRun #38 #3
Run SuccessRSuc #6 #102
Run ExplRExp #71 #87
PPAExp #12 #118
Run BlockR Blk #113 -
OL YdsOLY #19 #104
Stuff RateStuff #30 #87
TackleTak -  #8
Arizona State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatASU OffTCU Def
Pass GamePass #82 #74
Pass SuccessPSuc #21 #18
Pass ExplPExl #43 #57
PPAExp #14 #40
Pass Block/RushP Blk #33 #103
F7 HavocF7 #18 #105
DB HavocDB #16 #81
Program Comparison
ASU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

TCU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Sun Devil Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 5
Arizona State -2.5 (54.5)
Arizona State won vs TCU this year (27-24)

Previous Matchups
Arizona State beat TCU last year (27-24)

  
TCU's OC Kendal Briles (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Josh Hoover27241366%347229138.4
Ken Seals334672%282126.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremy Payne11062355.751
Kevorian Barnes (Tr)9744334.675
Trent Battle6434965.565
Jon Denman5017833.616
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eric McAlister7211901016.585
Jordan Dwyer (Tr)54730713.569
Joseph Manjack44579313.251
D'Andre Rogers3431929.439

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Andy Avalos (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Elarms-Orr13011462
Jamel Johnson963003
Namdi Obiazor884211
Bud Clark562117
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Elarms-Orr13011462
Devean Deal539494
Kylin Jackson (Tr)265321
Paul Oyewale318220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bud Clark562117
Vernon Glover411006
Devean Deal539494

ASU's OC Marcus Arroyo (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sam Leavitt14523961%16281036.8
Jeff Sims10518856%12611066.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Raleek Brown186114146.188
Jeff Sims10052255.288
Sam Leavitt7330654.252
Kanye Udoh (Tr)5624024.325
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordyn Tyson61711811.757
Malik McClain31441114.236
Chamon Metayer3837549.927
Derek Eusebio22341215.568

View Arizona State's Full Roster

ASU's DC Brian Ward (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Crook1018222
Keyshaun Elliott9814742
Myles Rowser844013
Adrian Wilson (Tr)571016
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshaun Elliott9814742
Justin Wodtly427752
Elijah O'Neal379561
Prince Dorbah188471
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keith Abney4411012
Javan Robinson423008
Montana Warren402028